Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/27/14

May 27, 2014

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to the other side of the holiday weekend

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be with you just as soon as my coffee stops dripping

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Which is like right now!

9:06	Comment From PS PROVIDE CONTENT

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: You’re the first!

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9:06	Comment From Mariners Maldonado Do you think the Astros will try and move Altuve by the deadline? That guy would do wonders on top of a lineup for teams trying to contend.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: The guy who’s 24, good, and signed through 2019?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know when the next good Astros team will appear, but I’m thinking they think Altuve will be a part of it

9:08	Comment From Dave from Pittsburgh Ding Dong the Wandys dead! In retrospect, that was a terrible trade for both teams, yes?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: To think, the Astros were once so bad that Wandy Rodriguez, with his contract, was among the most desirable trade assets

9:09	Comment From _David_ How much longer will we have to endure Stefen Romero, DH? .194/.245/.320, 4BB/27K

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe until Morrison comes back or the team signs Morales

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Not a lot else to shuffle around. Team’s thin

9:10	Comment From Rated Rookie Can we start the clock on Taijuan’s arrival in Seattle?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like he and Paxton are about even now, with Paxton’s minor soreness. Appears to be a mid-June return timeline

9:10	Comment From Jaime Is there any hope for Martin Prado this year? What’s gone wrong with him?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: .650 OPS. last May 26, he had a .666 OPS

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: With that said, you can’t ignore the doubled strikeout rate or the decline in contact from an extremely high level

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Interestingly, he already has 14 called strikeouts, after having 15 all of last season

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine part of this is age-related decline, and part of this is wacky wacky noise, and from now through the end of the season Prado will be okay

9:14	Comment From fats which rotation would you rather have, the O’s, the yanks or the jays?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Yankees, then Jays, then Orioles, and that doesn’t even include Sabathia and Pineda

9:15	Comment From Jays fan The Blue Jays are legit…right?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It’s good when you can hit the shit out of the ball

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: You might enjoy this: http://www.fangraphs.com/co…

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Clearly, there are moves for them to make. They can be better. But this is kind of one of the justifications of not going nuts in the offseason — there was reason to believe already in strong positive regression. The team was never in need of major assistance

9:17	Comment From Guest Which is longer- Brian Wilson’s leash or his beard?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: They’re probably not feeling too great about that 2015 player option

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, I suspect Brian Wilson does own several leashes

9:18	Comment From Kris clay bucholz sucks again

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: That was miserable

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: And his zone rate is actually up

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: He’s said himself that his mechanics are off, right? Seems like a candidate for a two-week shutdown. Issue is that the Sox don’t have a trillion replacement options

9:19	Comment From RotoTitanic You got a shout out on the Cubs WGN broadcast yesterday for your Samardzija piece! Nice!

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: It is a very friendly broadcast team that they have

9:20	Comment From baltic fox Some rumors have Beltre going to Texas for maybe Joc Pederson. I can see how it makes sense for LAD but TX is carrying 4 decent OFs already. Thoughts?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Martin isn’t great, Choice hasn’t hit yet, Rios might not be around long, and Choo might not be an outfielder long

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: With the Rangers’ outfield picture, room can be made for a guy like Joc Pederson

9:22	Comment From Mariners Maldonado How does Adam Jones sustain success? Career 4.5% BB and 19.4% K rates, Career 75.3% contact rate while swinging at 55.4% of pitches. Those numbers usually don’t mean all-star caliber right?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Makes the most of the contact he does make. Well, maybe not the most, but, a lot. Pretty good power, pretty good BABIP, and then you add in good baserunning and adequate defense at an important position

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Also, he plays every day

9:23	Comment From Jays fan Could the Jays trade Rasmus for a pitcher? If so, should they?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: They could, but then they just wouldn’t have a center fielder

9:25	Comment From Don Stephens Hey Jeff, what’s your read on Longoria’s struggles thus far?

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: He’s basically himself with less power, and power is the skill that can fluctuate the most because it comes from a small sample of swings. He reminds me a little bit of what Robinson Cano looked like early, and Cano’s coming out of it by putting more balls in the air. Longoria might have a little something going on with his swing, but I imagine he’ll look like himself from this point forward

9:26	Comment From Hot Rod Anyone ever just call you “Sully”? Like: “Sully! Bro! Babe, i gotta see my man Sullivan!”

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Every single one of my baseball coaches

9:27	Comment From Steve I have a love affair with Jed Lowrie, and I am getting screwed by babip. When will it go up, and what do you think he’s capable of offensively once the hits start dropping?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Screwed? His wRC+ is 107, above his career average

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Also, his career BABIP is below average

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: His offensive ceiling, though, is probably around what he did in 2013

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Wait, that was a fantasy question, wasn’t it

9:28	Comment From _David_ James Paxton felt soreness after his rehab start, but he says it’s normal, so it’s fine. It’s fine. EVERYTHING’S FINE, OKAY?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: In my head I’ve already bumped him back one rehab start, at least. Used to be I thought he was a start ahead of Walker. Now, at best, he’s even

9:30	Comment From PS also aaron sanchez #’s from last start vs sea dogs: 0.0 IP, 0 hits, 6 runs.. wow.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.milb.com/milb/st…

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: 34 walks, 41 strikeouts. I always hate these prospects

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not a prospects guy, so don’t look to me for expertise, but I always prefer results over stuff, because in my mind stuff ought to include the ability to know where the hell it’s going

9:31	Comment From Guest How do you take your coffee?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Black, home pour-overs, I’ve given myself away to the Portland spirit

9:32	Comment From CarGo Is there a DL stint in my future? Or are the Rockies going to keep pretending that my dropoff in production isn’t an issue?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Sure feels like Gonzalez could/should go on the DL for a bit. The Rockies wouldn’t want to be without him for that long but of all teams in baseball, they’re the one with the most outfielders currently hitting

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: They could sideline Gonzalez and then get an even better read on which outfielder to think about trading

9:34	Comment From Darth Stout What is Junior Lake’s future? Has he shown you enough to believe that he can be a starting OF for a good team?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: 60% contact rate. seven walks with 52 strikeouts. I know it’s overly simplistic, but if you’re going to succeed with those kinds of numbers, you better be amazing, and I suspect Lake isn’t a true-talent .380 BABIP sort

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s a disaster, and I can see him as a team’s worst starting OF, but I’d sure prefer to bet on something more reliable

9:36	Comment From Steve Should we be concerned about Evan Longoria’s drop in batted ball distance…?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t his drop in ISO say the same thing?

9:36	Comment From Benji Is Fredi Gonzalez the worst manager to ever be part of a 96 win team

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, but that’s just playing the odds

9:36	Comment From Bryce Harpers soulmate I was in desperate need for pitching a couple of week ago and dropped George Springer, who was struggling mightily. Talk me off the ledge.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Why? You’ll probably just go back to it after your next overreaction.

9:37	Comment From Guest #3234 Do you have any thoughts on the future of Kyle Zimmer? Is his hype overstated because of SSS?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Just now diagnosed with a lat strain that’ll set him back several more weeks. (1) Very talented, (2) pitching prospect. I like the healthy version of him, which might not ever exist for long stretches

9:37	Comment From GianMarlo Stanfield No GoT on Sunday night… sheesh what’d YOU do with yourself?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Camped on the other side of Oregon

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Side note: maybe the most aggravating part of this job is having to dedicate a bunch of hours to catching up on what you missed

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball always makes me feel guilty for taking personal time

9:39	Comment From Rated Rookie I wish MLB.TV had a “ballpark ambience” option for the audio feed on the video broadcasts.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I could’ve sworn this used to be a thing

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Am I crazy? Is this still a thing?

9:41	Comment From AJ It is but you have to be a premium member I think

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I know this was at least promised, but I never used it and can’t recall actually seeing it as an option

9:42	Comment From Bip I don’t think it is. I’m pretty sure I’ve had no choice but to listen to Hawk at least once

9:42	Comment From mlbtv You can select ballpark sound on the MLB.tv app for Roku, but not computer or PS3.

9:43

Comment From benj
So part of your job seems like it probably includes staying informed enough about the whole league to stay conversant about any given team. How hard is it to do that in September, when the playoffs are largely set and baseball has been happening for 5 months? Do you have to make yourself watch something like Royals/D-Backs matchups?

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: Well thankfully by that point people aren’t really looking for us to cover the teams who suck and are out of the race. So while we’ll still focus on some interesting players on those teams, we don’t have to stay quite as informed becuase those teams are just playing out the string and most of the fans have checked out

9:44	Comment From Chim Ritchalds what’s the deal with Hosmer?

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: I think this is similar to a few other situations: Hosmer is himself without the same amount of power, but if you think about it, what is power but getting into one or two extra baseballs every few weeks? It’s an easy thing to imagine coming and going with no change in actual player talent. We’re talking about Hosmer being a very small handful of swings away from being his ordinary self

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: So while a drop in ISO can definitely be meaningful, I require more evidence to believe a guy is actually missing something he used to have. I don’t think Hosmer is less powerful than he used to be; I think he’s just hit for less power so far

9:46	Comment From Dan Does the Matt Kemp situation in LA seem very odd to you too?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Especially given https://twitter.com/dylanoh…

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously there has to be some juggling with that team’s personnel and obviously Kemp is a pretty lousy defender but this seems like it’s going too far

9:48	Comment From PieTraynee Who has the better chance of making the playoffs between the Pirates and Reds?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Pirates, I think. Polanco is close, the pitchers are better than this, and Votto might not be his normal self for the rest of the season

9:49	Comment From Benji Does Seth Smith continue to hit for the rest of the year?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Not like the fifth-best hitter in baseball, no

9:49	Comment From baltic fox If the Shark is dealt, what’s the most likely landing spot?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Right now probably Blue Jays, but he’s at least a month from getting traded

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: If the Red Sox pull themselves back into the hunt, then suddenly they might be the most obvious option

9:51	Comment From Guest Nick Franklin sat all 3 games this weekend, Miller two of the three. Any clue what the plan is for SEA now? Platoon Franklin against LHP and continue running Romero out? Do they think he’s not ready to play OF?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Way too many lefties on the team right now and Miller can’t even hit righties. Franklin is a switch-hitter who sucks a third of the time. The current arrangement isn’t permanent but when lefties are on the hill, the Mariners are in some trouble

9:52	Comment From Francisco Lindor Truffles More likely that Betts gets traded (as part of a package) for someone like Stanton or that we see him manning CF this season?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The worse the Red Sox are, the more likely I think it is that Betts sticks around. Obviously at present they could use a better center fielder and they might just have that option internally

9:53	Comment From Luke Thoughts on Hosmer? Batted ball distance isn’t too inspiring.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Of course it isn’t, he has one home run

9:53	Comment From Guest I live in Houston and Altuve is basically the only player anyone knows/likes. Trading him would be a disaster

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be Springer in approximately seven minutes

9:53	Comment From Lars Are there any other Cuban or Japanese players on their way to MLB? Anyone as good as Puig or Tanaka?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: No one as good as Tanaka

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: And we didn’t even know Puig was Puig. We all thought that was a laughable overpay for a nobody

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: but: http://www.baseballamerica….

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: more informative: http://www.baseballamerica….

9:56	Comment From Guest Best bet to be traded: Lee, Utley or Shark?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Samardzija, for sure

9:56	Comment From Johnny Rockets Josh Donaldson has 46 flyballs @ 291.40 feet on average with 12 HRs while Austin Jackson has 46 flyballs @ 289.04 feet on average with 3 HRs. Is this data sufficient enough to suggest that one is hitting more HRs than expected while one is hitting less?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Where are they hitting those fly balls?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Directionality is pretty important. Not saying that’s the explanation, because I don’t know off the top of my head, but it’s a significant factor

9:57	Comment From Joseph (Orlando) Yasiel Puig or Bryce Harper? Real life.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Puig

9:58	Comment From Dave Any thoughts on Masterson for the rest of the year?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: He’s down more than two miles per hour. I don’t like that at all

9:59	Comment From John Cena Dave Hudgens seems like a smart dude. Do you think fly ball rates and swing/miss rates show the Mets were “pressing” at home? Is that a real thing or just noise?