Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/27/16

May 27, 2016

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s every last one of us baseball chat

9:10	Snowflake: Happy 21st Birthday Yoan Moncada

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Julio Urias’ grandfather

9:11	Slippin Jimmy: I was watching MLB Network the other day, and the two analysts ran down their top 5 pitchers in baseball. One of them said Rich Hill. Not joking.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: It’s…hard…to argue against? I mean, there are varying definitions of “best” but if you’re looking for someone to win a game tomorrow…

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Rich Hill has done almost nothing but dominate since arriving last summer. Of course it’s one of the weirdest things in the whole damned game but the numbers are what they are

9:12	Snowflake: Which is more likely over the next 100 years? The Cubs continue to not win a World Series or the Yellowstone super volcano erupts ending life as we know it

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs thing by a lot. There are plenty of other volcanoes to worry about more than Yellowstone

9:12	Ryan : Can the Astros turn the ship around this year?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Sure they can. They could, of course, really use a not-terrible Carlos Gomez. That’s important. But they’ve solidified their bullpen and they don’t have too many holes, so they’re by no means toast

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Over the past month, they’re 14-13, which isn’t good, but which isn’t lousy. Same record as the Jays, Tigers, and Yankees. They really need the Mariners and Rangers to cool off

9:14	Rags: Is CC Sabathia a thing again?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: When the home runs come, the runs come, but he’s a serviceable starter. Nothing for the Yankees to complain about.

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: New pitch! Sort of. The four-seam fastball has some cutting action this time around

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: That pitch has so far avoided hard contact

9:19	Josecanyousee: rank non-Thor Mets starters ROS? Getting harder and harder to put the Harvey and even DeGrom over Matz

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe I’m being reactionary but I agree with you. Right now I’d say Matz, then Harvey, then deGrom

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe actually deGrom before Harvey — he’s starting to get his stuff back, seems like. But those early good starts he had came against the Phillies and Braves. I don’t care about those

9:20	John C.: Better career? Nola or Velasquez?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Nola, because of Velasquez’s injury risk.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I think Nola will burn for a while. Velasquez seems like he’d shine brightest, only to fade away

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I love love love almost everything about Nola. Underrated, somehow

9:22	Rahul: The Giants are surging. Winners of 13 out of their last 14. Do you think they can run away with the NL West, as they are doing right now.

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: No, they won’t run away from the Dodgers. I know sometimes it might feel like this site is in love with the Dodgers, but it is what it is. We think the Dodgers are good! The Giants are also good, but not more good

9:23	Maxamuz: Prediction: Julio Urias fails to impress.

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Felix Hernandez’s debut: 5 innings, 2 runs, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts. Non-televised!

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Of course, the rest of that year, Felix was amazing. The next year he struggled! Clayton Kershaw kind of struggled a little too. Sometimes even the elites need time

9:24	j6takish: Jeff, what are you doing this weekend? What Should I be doing this weekend?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Backpacking in the Mount Margaret backcountry just north of Mount St Helens

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: That applies to both questions because our little group had a couple drop-outs!

9:26	j6takish: Justin verlander, good at baseball again?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: This started happening again last year down the stretch. Seems like he’s where he wants to be. Currently has his highest strikeout rate since 2009

9:27	Elon Musk: Will genetic engineering end baseball?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Not before you’re dead

9:27	Scott: Do you think Devon Travis being back will help out the Jays

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: yes

9:28	Iago: What do I make of Brian Dozier? I know his BABIP is a little lower than his career numbers suggests, so is there still hope for him this year or should I start looking for other options at 2B in an OBP/SLG league?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: Dozier is a pretty one-dimensional hitter. He wants inside pitches, and he wants to pull them over the fence. He’s not very flexible up there, and he’s made it work for a while, but at least in theory it seems like that makes it fairly simple to attack him. I don’t think he’s *this* bad but you have to think the league knows what he’s about. I watched this sort of thing happen to Jose Lopez, albeit at a younger age

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Dozier needs pull-side home runs. That’s everything to him. Take a few of those away, and he’s lousy

9:33

Gio: Hi Jeff! Is deGrom a buy-low opportunity or should we pass? And, any concern about Giolito? I know he’s walking more people, striking out less, but word is Nats wanted him to change some mechanics, and now he should be back to his normal thing (his last start was pretty good). Still top of the rotation upside and callup later this year, or has something changed? Thanks!

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Is deGrom a fantasy question? Whatever. He’s good. He’s better than this. Use that for what you will

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Giolito had a rough start to his season. Seemed to have a little bit of a mechanical breakdown, where he was having issues with his leg lift and his timing

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: He’s working on that, and he’s better than this, but he’s still walking guys. He walked guys last year. He hasn’t yet dominated in Double-A. He’s made it hard to drive the ball but he’s not all that polished

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I like him as a prospect but there aren’t yet enough strikes. Kind of like Glasnow. The potential is obvious but there are kinks to be smoothed

9:37	adam: it’s friday, im at work, ENTERTAIN ME

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Work should be its own entertainment

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: lol I’m kidding, have some chips

9:38	Scott: What do you see the Jays targeting in these potential trades? Can you see them grabbing some productive bullpen arms?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I keep thinking about Will Smith. Maybe they’ll trade for a healthy Will Smith

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Otherwise I don’t know what you do outside of hoping established players bounce back closer to career norms

9:41	Houzer : Do you think the Padres would be open to a Shields for Anibal Sanchez+Steven Moya trade? Would let the Padres get out of their Shields deal without having to include cash, and give them a younger, albeit troubling SP, with some upside

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: After a couple glances I think you’d have the Padres’ attention. Might not be enough to push them over the edge, but Sanchez has basically half the remaining commitment as Shields. Moya isn’t a total nothing

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: The Padres might rather try to pay down Shields to get better youth in return. Sanchez would have almost no appeal to them. But it’s a starting point

9:45	adam: is rendon back?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Seems that way! I don’t think he’s 2014-good, but I think he’s very good

9:47

JKD: Max Scherzer is striking out more hitters than ever, walking them at a bit below career-average rates (though higher than last year’s career-low), getting a career-high rate of soft contact and career-average rate of hard contact, inducing way more infield flies… and 1.9 HR/9, with a 20.6% HR/FB. SIERA thinks he’s excellent (2.86), xFIP does too (3.07) – is this really just a pure-dumb-luck thing that’ll regress away, or is there maybe something else going on?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there’s anything wrong with Scherzer. I mean, he’s clearly aggressive in the zone, and in the upper half, so balls get hit in the air. That’s been the case for a while.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: But consider that game on May 6 in Chicago. Scherzer allowed four dingers in five innings! But the wind was blowing straight out to center field.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: He’s as hard to hit as ever. Out of the zone and inside of it. His stuff is the same. Scherzer is awesome

9:50	Q-Ball: How worried are you about Prince Fielder? Is this a slump, or is he Ryan Howard 2.0?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I almost wrote about him for today and will probably write about him next week. He’s in trouble.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not the worst player in baseball, I don’t think, but he always had a pretty narrow offensive foundation. Weaken that just a bit and the whole structure collapses

9:52	Sean P : Based on whatever adjustments Fowler has made to turn him into the valuable defender he has been this year, at what level do you expect Fowler to regress defensively throughout the rest of the year? Or, can he maintain this level of defense over the rest of the season?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I could see him as a 0 to +5 center fielder

9:52	Jon: Should the Braves be looking to move Teheran now or should they risk it and wait until July for a potentially higher return? Could they get a Shelby Miller-like return?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The problem, if it’s a problem, is that there isn’t a market yet. Teams aren’t looking to make trades before the draft. You’ll see things heat up toward the end of June but the Braves will need to hope Teheran keeps this going for now

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: The Jeff Samardzija trade was early, by deadline standards, and that happened on July 5. So that’s something to keep in mind. There’ll never be another Shelby Miller-like trade, but Teheran could fetch a shiny centerpiece

9:57	JD: Edwin Encarnacion’s K and BB rates are off from the past couple years, but his batted ball rate and plate discipline don’t look too different. Is it bad luck or is he just getting old?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Element of noise. Same sort of thing actually happened last year. Through this date, Encarnacion had a strikeout rate of 21%. The rest of the way, 13%.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I’d trust him. And he’s mostly been productive for the month, so he’s warming up, it would appear