Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/6/14

May 6, 2014

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hey there everybody. Still sick, still tardy like usual, but still present to talk about baseball. So let’s talk about baseball!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: And probably exclusively baseball!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Except for this:

9:08	Comment From Tim Holy crap is this a new record for lateness

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I was just as late last week!

9:08	Comment From Cory Victor Martinez has a 3.5% strikeout rate

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: And there’s the whole thing where he hasn’t struck out looking since like last May 21. Of course that doesn’t have to be a good thing — Delmon Young doesn’t take called third strikes, either — but it’s hard to argue with the results

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I love the guys who don’t strike out and also still hit for more than slap singles in this day and age

9:10	Comment From Zack Yonder Alonso- bad BABIP luck or is he just no good?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Both

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Regress the BABIP and he still doesn’t have any power

9:10	Comment From Phanatic What’s the deal with Domonic Brown? Any hope for a productive season?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not the only guy in baseball where everything looks normal but the power and the fly balls. Assuming the power didn’t just disappear for absolutely no reason, the homers will start to come and between now and the end of the year he’ll probably look a lot like himself

9:12	Comment From Jays89 Thoughts on Jose Bautistas 2014 season so far? Top 5 player in baseball?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like he’s back, right? Not that he ever left, but the feeling is that he’s back to what he was at his best

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Not sure about top-5 player but definitely top-5 hitter

9:13	Comment From Darren What are your thoughts on the Zips projection for a 5 way tie in the ALEast this year.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t even begin to imagine writing about that

9:13	Comment From _David_ Is Brad Miller going to share SS with WFB the rest of the season?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine you’ll see something like a platoon until/unless Miller stops being terrible. Alternatively if he really sucks then down the stretch you could even maybe see Chris Taylor or Nick Franklin if he isn’t off doing outfield stuff

9:15	Comment From B Any possibility of getting a “wildest contact” series started? I’d like to see how batters fare when they actually hit really bad pitches.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll think about it, but these things are so much work that I’m already intimidated by the prospect

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Does make sense at least as a one-off or two-off, though. Maybe ASB and after the season ends

9:16	Comment From _David_ Are we seeing peak Zunino? 103 wRC+ on a .290 OBP, seemingly good defense…

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Hopefully peak Zunino doesn’t have 14 strikeouts for every unintentional walk

9:16	Comment From Calvin Best sell high candidates: Chavez, Evoaldi, Ventura?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I am answering a fantasy question to the best of my abilities!

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: My assumption is that people still don’t really know anything about Chavez or Eovaldi. Ventura gets a ton of press so I imagine he could bring the most back

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Which isn’t to say he’s worse than the others, but that might be the best way to maximize the group

9:17	Comment From Frustrated in Philly I give up trying to pick the right pitcher to start each week. Any pitcher I start gets absolutely no run support.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: This is one reason why I pretty much never genuinely answer fantasy questions

9:18	Comment From Bick At what point does Jeff Samardzija decide he’ll no longer throw a pitch for the disaster that is the Cubs?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: When he gets traded to another team in July

9:19	Comment From Guest Are you a believer in Wieters’s mechanical adjustments and him crushing RHP?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Interesting thing about Wieters:

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Career: 42% grounders 2014: 24% grounders

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: It’s pretty much all gone to line drives and now for the first time in forever Wieters is running a healthy BABIP. It does look like something has changed, and while the change probably isn’t this dramatic, we’ve all been waiting for him to step forward

9:21	Comment From Curt Dee Gordon will go back to being Dee Gordon in 3…2…

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I buy that he’s better; I still don’t buy that he’s good. Maybe that makes me cold, but I’m pretty skeptical about those skillsets

9:21	Comment From Cory V-Mart’s caught looking streak actually ended last night to Jarred Cosart of all people =(

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Hey! A post! Thank you, Victor Martinez!

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Martinez just couldn’t believe that Cosart would throw a strike

9:22	Comment From Luca Brasi Hello Jeff. Do you think Roenis Elias can continue to pitch this effectively? Thanks.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably a 100-105 FIP- kind of starting pitcher

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Which is better than I expected, and makes him maybe even a No. 4. But I could be suffering from recency bias and just two months ago I assumed he was nothing

9:24	Comment From Jays Fan II Hi Jeff. Thanks for doing the chat even though you’re sick. Thoughts on what happens to Juan Francisco now that Adam Lind is back this week?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s put it this way: while Francisco has inarguably been productive for the Jays, he has a career WAR of 1.1, and more than half of that has come in his last 59 plate appearances

9:24	Comment From Kris Will the braves win another game?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not during this chat

9:24	Comment From Dustin Troy Tulowitzki accumulated 1.2 WAR while we waited for you.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably the closest player to Mike Trout on the planet in terms of true talent

9:26	Comment From Dan Where are you at on Nick Castellanos? Where’s his ceiling?

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like thinking in terms of ceilings, because everybody in baseball has an extraordinarily high ceiling. I think Castellanos often looks the part of a 22-year-old, and he often looks the part of a 28-year-old. I suspect it’ll be an up-and-down season but in the long run I expect him to have several brushes with 3-4 WAR

9:28	Comment From Washington Irving Sabathia has a 2.95 xFIP and surprising peripherals. Think his results will start matching up?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: It’s almost inevitable

9:28	Comment From Charlie On pitch FX data, some recordings will measure a pitch’s movement that doesn’t make much sense. For example, some pitchers have their curveball rising up (positive v movement)? And some have their cutters moving away like a 2 seamer?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: A 2-seamer might break ten inches arm-side. A cutter might break one or two. That’s going to be unique to every pitcher. And positive v movement doesn’t mean a pitch is rising up — it means it didn’t drop as much as a standard pitch with no spin

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes there are just classification errors, and the algorithm confuses a curve with a slurve or a slider, but there are a lot of varieties of curveballs out there

9:31	Comment From Tito Santana What do you think of C.J. Cron? Is he here to stay or a certainty to be back in the minors once Hamilton and Calhoun return?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: He could get a longer leash as long as Ibanez sucks, but I’m not buying him as an impact hitter today

9:32	Comment From Cole How much do you value batted ball distance as a pperipheral? Or is it just a function of other ones?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I like the idea of it, but I don’t use it, and the data we have access to is far from perfect. Even the teams with actual HITf/x data have failed to achieve much in the way of breakthrough analysis

9:33	Comment From mhad Hi Jeff! I can’t seem to figure out how to embed a table or graph into a community post. Can you tell me how, or point me to resource that can? Thanks!

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: http://tools.grission.com/t…

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: For an image, upload it somewhere and then embed using HTML or the media embedder

9:35	Comment From Charles Brad Miller – looks to be slowly turning it around. Striking out less, more line drives. Still hope for him?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: 7 for his last 45 with 11 strikeouts, and yesterday’s hit just got lost in the lights by the outfielder

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Still plenty of hope for him, but it’s not like he isn’t sucking

9:36	Comment From Work is boring If a magical genie who’s magic gave you a million dollars but the caveat was that Hawk Harrelson had to follow you around and narrate everything for the rest of your life (he’s immortal)…what say you?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Easy no

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I would basically never have sex

9:36	Comment From Lefty Where is George Springer’s power, is it just simply SSS or does he need to go back to AAA to work on something (maybe his confidence)?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: Anybody with his minor-league contact rates clearly has holes that better pitches can exploit. That was no secret — Springer has always swung and missed, even against bad pitchers, and now he’s up against the best pitchers. There’s not really anything left for him to do in the minors, because he’s mastered the minors, but the majors are the biggest adjustment he’ll ever have to face

9:38	Comment From Ghost Hands Are the Giants really this good? They swept a series in Atlanta without getting a hit with RISP.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not, but there’s no reason why they can’t win 90 games

9:38	Comment From Dan Troy Tulowitzki: good at doing baseball things? He might end Trout’s reign of leading MLB in WAR.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: He’s one of baseball’s only real five-tool players

9:39	Comment From Schoop Jardine Noticed the other day that Jonathan “If it doesn’t fit…” Schoop wasn’t wearing batting gloves. Is that, as the kids say, a thing?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Brad Miller doesn’t either

9:40	Comment From B FIP isn’t really “fielding independent”. If you have a good defense behind you, they convert more balls in play into outs giving you fewer chances for Ks (and BBs and HRs). Are there versions of FIP that take into account K%, BB%, and HR% instead of Ks, BBs, and HRs?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: It’s already expressed as a rate, right? It puts everything over innings

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Now, there’s a legitimate argument that by using innings, it isn’t exactly fielding independent, and tango knows that. But the beauty of FIP is its simplicity, and that requires a few concessions that ultimately don’t make very much of a difference

9:42	Comment From Robbie What becomes of Alex Guerrero if Dee Gordon continues to be a valuable offensive player?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe they teach him third

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe they trade one

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a good problem

9:44	Comment From Ccq Any thoughts on the ball/strike calls in the Yanks/Angels game last night? How much did that 1-0 strike call to Gardner really effect the outcome of the the game? It was a pretty bad call..

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not going to lie: I didn’t see it in live action

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: But looking at it now, it seems like it was a borderline strike?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: It definitely wasn’t an obvious, 100% ball

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: With any borderline call, one side is going to be upset. That’s the nature of gray areas. Maybe Derek Jeter shouldn’t have hit into a first-pitch double play. Maybe Gardner shouldn’t have struck out. It was a rough call on the Yankees, but they still had a 1-and-1 count with none out and the bases loaded

9:46	Comment From Ethan Tulo or Trout, if both are healthy?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Trout

9:47	Comment From Pineapple Are Masahiro Tanaka’s home run problems something to worry about or is it just a matter of learning not to throw high strikes?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Well he’s not going to run the highest dinger rate in baseball, but I could see that as being his one weakness, where he has a pretty flat fastball and a tendency to elevate the occasional splitter

9:47	Comment From Garret Richards How about my stuff?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Glad you’re finally doing something with it

9:48	Comment From Dan Are we concerned about Miguel Cabrera yet? Not walking, strikeouts way up, power nowhere to be found.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: .354/.380/.521 over the last couple weeks. We know what this is, right? I just wrote about it the other day. He’s actively recovering from offseason surgery. It’s not an inexplicable early slump — it’s explicable, and I suspect he’s going to be okay, and soon

9:49	Comment From Ron Swanson can we stop with the Brad Miller questions?!

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Well how did that help

9:50	Comment From Brendan Is there a stat that normalizes a player’s numbers to his career BABIP?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Not that I’ve seen around

9:50	Comment From Brendan Carlos Santana: BB% rate is up, K% is up only slightly. BABIP is .154. Can all his struggles be chalked up to the latter?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t think of why he’d suddenly be a disaster. When you have one month of data, I think all the typical stathead stereotypes should apply. Regress all BABIPs. Regress all HR/FBs and all ERAs to xFIPs.

9:53	Comment From Lefty Robbie Cano and Davide Wright are two veteran stars that seem to be floundering a bit so far. I guess I worry more about Wright for some reason, but are either really showing sharp decline or is it just aging plus SSS?

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: They’re struggling in different ways, right? Cano is putting everything on the ground, Wright has a lopsided K/BB. As always always always, bet on the elite players until you have more than this small amount of evidence. The numbers can be slow to catch on to developing trends, but I’ve learned not to be too aggressive in declaring that someone’s in decline

9:54	Comment From toot toot how would you even handle a 5-way tie, anyway

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Go on a walk and let the MLB officials sort it out

9:55	Comment From Joe Minus James Jones, is there any outfield help on the way?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Franklin

9:55	Comment From Robbie Kershaw taking a month-long vacation after throwing as many innings as he did in 2013… blessing in disguise?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Popular theory. I’ll say sure, why not?

9:55	Comment From Robbie At this point, any guys who put up big surprising numbers in the first month of the season that you suspect won’t regress back to being awful?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Really interested in Blackmon, also interested in Dozier.

9:58	Comment From Lawrence The position player most likely to get moved at the trade deadline is _____________. The pitcher most likely to get moved at the trade deadline is ________________.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Asdrubal Cabrera?, Jeff Samardzija

9:59	Comment From Matt So Dean Mitzel visited our class last week and I mentioned you had said to say hi in a previous chat. He said: “ask him about the time we wrestled.”