Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/8/18

June 8, 2018

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry sorry! Podcasting!

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:08	hscer: I know they’re completely independent, but the Caps make me feel better about the Nats chances this year. Is that sports?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: That’s sports

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: It also shows the power of the narratives we make up about them to make them more interesting

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: It was compelling to think of the entire DC area as simply being cursed. Now, the Nats’ history is unchanged from where it was yesterday morning, but it’s easier to see how that doom isn’t actually permanent. Every year, there’s a champion! If it can happen for Ovechkin, it can happen for anybody

9:10	Poised: Is Arenado a better walker now or is he just seeing fewer pitches to hit?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Arenado is a little more selective than he used to be, but he’s also been swinging and missing a little more often, which has led to deeper counts. Deeper counts invariably lead to more strikeouts and walks, and both those rates for him are up

9:12	Chapultepec Audiorama: The Capitals won! Which of the 7 World Series-less teams is most likely to win their first in the next 5 years?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: So we’re picking from the Mariners, Nationals, Padres, Rockies, Rangers, Rays, and Brewers

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll immediately eliminate the Mariners, Padres, Rockies, Rangers, and Rays

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Leaves us with the Nationals and Brewers. I think it’s a toss-up between them. I’ve been concerned about the Nationals’ future before, but with Soto emerging as he has, it might not be so bad

9:14	Ghost of Billy Butler: With the M’s and Red Sox/Yanks looking good for the two AL wild cards, do you think the A’s and Rays are kicking themselves for putting together middling teams this year, instead of pushing one way or the other?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Both the A’s and Rays know exactly where they are — teams on the upswing who aren’t yet quite ready for prime time. Too talented to tear down, but too limited to build up like crazy

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: They haven’t done things perfectly, but I think they’re content. They’ve long figured they were playing for .500. And even though the records are what they are, I’ll point out that, by BaseRuns, the Rays’ winning percentage should be .546, with the Mariners at .547

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: The Rays have a better BaseRuns record than the Brewers, Indians, and Cardinals. I know there are reasons for underperforming, but the Rays have not been bad

9:17	Stuafoo: How does Felix’s curve stack up? Could upping its usage be a path back to average?

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: That’s sort of what he’s been trying to do. He has the highest curveball rate of his career. He could probably stand to push it even further, but ultimately, he needs to be able to locate a fastball. I wonder if he’d be best at basically a 1:1:1 mix of fastballs, curveballs, and changeups

9:18	Lunar verLander: So when are we getting tWRC+ and sWRC+?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: We need to get BB- and K- first!

9:20	Kiermaier’s Post Nasal Drip: Hi Jeff. What is up with Dallas Keuchel?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Overall, he’s been almost exactly what he was two years ago. Not too far off. His slider hasn’t been very effective — its whiff rate is way down — but otherwise, he’s a familiar-looking guy. One tweak away from getting back on track

9:23	Rick Souddress: What reliever should the Angels be targeting and what should they give up?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: How aggressive the Angels are is going to depend on how much closer they can get to the Mariners/Astros in the coming weeks. They know they’re in the race, but you don’t want to push too much into the middle when you’re several games out of a playoff spot

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: It would probably be pretty easy for them to trade for like Darren O’Day. But I wonder if they look to San Diego for a Tyson Ross/Kirby Yates two-fer

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Solves two of their major problems. Might even be able to throw in an outfielder if Kole Calhoun doesn’t figure out baseball again

9:26	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Where do you stand on luke heimlich not being drafted: elated or ecstatic?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Surprised. I figured there were a few teams willing to take the chance, but in the end maybe they got peer pressured into staying away

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: There’s still time for a team to sign him as an undrafted free agent. Such a team might think that doing so quietly will keep it off the media radar. It would not

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Overall, it’s kind of powerful to see baseball collectively prioritize something other than winning

9:29	Brandon M: Should the rangers consider optioning Odor? Profar has been performing well and Andrus will be activated from the DL soon while Odor has continued his poor performance from last year

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I’m given to understand that Odor has a couple of option years remaining. As you say, his wRC+ is 51, after last year’s 61

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Rangers should do more than consider it — I think the Rangers should do it. Profar has earned the opportunity, and Odor has lost the benefit of the doubt

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: He’s been an awful player for too many months. He needs more work, or at least a shock to the system

9:32	CamdenWarehouse: Kelvin Herrera is quietly having a great year in relief (no walks and only one HR allowed in 25 outings). what sort of value could he return to the Royals?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: That breaking ball is really working wonders for him

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: He’s slowed it down by four miles per hour. Four miles per hour!

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Good reliever, contract season

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Looking at something kind of like last year’s Addison Reed trade

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: If you don’t like that, then, last year’s Tony Watson trade

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Or the Pat Neshek trade!

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Multiple prospects coming back. Don’t expect any of the Gleyber Torres type. But Herrera will be one of the better late-inning relievers available

9:36	kevinthecomic: How often when a coach makes a ‘mechanical’ change, either with a pitcher or a batter, is the change is actually something real as opposed to a placebo so that the pitcher or batter can believe that an error was found and then corrected?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I think that does happen, but probably not very often, because it’s hard and disruptive to make a mechanical change, so there’s risk that goes along with it

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: If you’re just making a change for mental reasons, well, what are you actually changing? You have to be careful

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: I do think — and this should maybe be written about — the media at large makes too much of reported adjustments. It’s a whole genre of baseball writing now: player improves after making X change. It’s compelling and insightful when it’s true and significant, but, I mean, baseball players are ALWAYS making adjustments. It’s critical to separate the impactful ones from the routine and useless ones

9:41	Kyf: What’s the deal with Gary Sanchez? Is he just getting unlucky, with his low Babip?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Not quite — he does have a career-high pop-up rate. Those are basically automatic outs

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: He hit 14 pop-ups last season. He already has 15 this year

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: But still, here are Sanchez’s year-to-year BABIPs on ground balls: .250, .240, .071

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: That’s going to change moving forward, as the occasional grounder with eyes makes its way to the grass

9:43	Joe: The Orioles aren’t gonna get much for Machado, are they? Relatedly, everything is terrible.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll do okay, but at shortstop, Machado is likely to be in a market with Andrus, and at third, he’s likely to be in a market with Donaldson, Beltre, and Moustakas

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Machado is the best of all of those players, but there aren’t many teams with needs. The Braves are there, of course, but they’re unlikely to want to sacrifice too much for a short-term 2018 push

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Machado will easily bring more back than J.D. Martinez did last summer. But I don’t think such a trade will involve a blue-chip, can’t-miss prospect. There’s just not enough value there

9:46	ChiSox2020: True or False: Baltimore gets a better return for Machado than NYY got for Chapman?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: According to Baseball America, Gleyber Torres entered 2016 as the No. 41 prospect, and he entered 2017 as the No. 5 prospect

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Right in the middle of that, he headlined the Chapman return

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s important to understand there’s a difference between Torres then and Torres today, but that being said, if the Orioles get someone of Torres’ caliber in this move, they should be very pleased

9:49

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Whenever expansion is brought up, there is a question of if the area can support a team. Certainly NYC or north Jersey could support another team, but teams have veto power for whatever reason within their territory. Is it a foregone conclusion that the Yankees and Mets cannot be persuaded ($$$) to allow another team into an MSA with more than twice as many people as Chicago?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I expect that overall it will just be much much easier to put a new team in a brand-new market

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: The New York area could definitely support a third baseball team, but it’s not a coincidence you never see Manfred talking about that

9:51	Guest: Admit it. You’re late on purpose at this point. There’s no way you always have stuff going on Friday mornings.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: We record a podcast almost every Friday morning from 8-9am

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: As typically happens with every goodbye, it stretches longer than it ought to

9:52

Shawn Baseball, baby!: Hi Jeff,
I find myself having a hard time arguing against people who say the shift should be banned, or at least limited. While obviously technically within the rules, all it seems to do is limit non-home run offense and take away potentially awesome defensive plays.
Am I a grumpy old man? I do turn 30 in a couple weeks.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: For one thing, it’s hard to create a rule in the first place. How do you define a shift? Do you draw a line out from home plate, intersecting second base? Even if you did that, teams would still shift right up to the line

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: And for another thing, I don’t know if you’ve been reading Russell Carleton’s recent work at Baseball Prospectus, but there’s compelling evidence to suggest that, overall, the shift hasn’t actually…worked

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Now, it’s changed the game, certainly, but BABIP has hardly moved, and where the shift takes away some singles, it apparently replaces them with increased walks

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: No evidence I’ve seen to suggest that great defensive plays have been reduced. They’re just different

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: If there’s a problem, it’s strikeouts. Reduce strikeouts and you get a lot of baseball back

9:55	TJ: Happy Friday! Thanks for the chat. What’s your outlook on Pomeranz? He had a couple good starts, but in general has looked pretty abysmal. Think he turns it around like he did last year if/when healthy?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Very difficult pitcher to trust to remain healthy

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I like his actual talent, and his curveball is special, but this year he hasn’t thrown his usual stuff. Higher risk than most

9:57	Pat: How popular is THE BOARD now? While I’m really enjoying reading your many articles, THE BOARD gives me another reason to come to fangraphs.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I love THE BOARD

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Kiley and Eric are so wonderful

9:57	Slugger27: at what point will hand gestures to the dugout after every base hit stop being a thing?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably just habit now, like basketball players giving muted low-fives between free throws

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Remember though, those things aren’t for us. They’re for them. Group dynamics are always a little weird-looking when you yourself are not a part of the clique

9:59	Dodgerbleu: Happy Friday Jeff! Looking for your take on Jose Martinez and his lack of pop (HR yesterday aside). Is this who he is? Projections are more bearish..

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Compared to last year, Martinez is making more contact but hitting more grounders. His wRC+ has gone from 135 to 135