Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/8/18

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Sorry sorry! Podcasting!

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:08

hscer: I know they’re completely independent, but the Caps make me feel better about the Nats chances this year. Is that sports?

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: That’s sports

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: It also shows the power of the narratives we make up about them to make them more interesting

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: It was compelling to think of the entire DC area as simply being cursed. Now, the Nats’ history is unchanged from where it was yesterday morning, but it’s easier to see how that doom isn’t actually permanent. Every year, there’s a champion! If it can happen for Ovechkin, it can happen for anybody

9:10

Poised: Is Arenado a better walker now or is he just seeing fewer pitches to hit?

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: Arenado is a little more selective than he used to be, but he’s also been swinging and missing a little more often, which has led to deeper counts. Deeper counts invariably lead to more strikeouts and walks, and both those rates for him are up

9:12

Chapultepec Audiorama: The Capitals won! Which of the 7 World Series-less teams is most likely to win their first in the next 5 years?

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: So we’re picking from the Mariners, Nationals, Padres, Rockies, Rangers, Rays, and Brewers

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll immediately eliminate the Mariners, Padres, Rockies, Rangers, and Rays

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: Leaves us with the Nationals and Brewers. I think it’s a toss-up between them. I’ve been concerned about the Nationals’ future before, but with Soto emerging as he has, it might not be so bad

9:14

Ghost of Billy Butler: With the M’s and Red Sox/Yanks looking good for the two AL wild cards, do you think the A’s and Rays are kicking themselves for putting together middling teams this year, instead of pushing one way or the other?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: Both the A’s and Rays know exactly where they are — teams on the upswing who aren’t yet quite ready for prime time. Too talented to tear down, but too limited to build up like crazy

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: They haven’t done things perfectly, but I think they’re content. They’ve long figured they were playing for .500. And even though the records are what they are, I’ll point out that, by BaseRuns, the Rays’ winning percentage should be .546, with the Mariners at .547

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: The Rays have a better BaseRuns record than the Brewers, Indians, and Cardinals. I know there are reasons for underperforming, but the Rays have not been bad

9:17

Stuafoo: How does Felix’s curve stack up? Could upping its usage be a path back to average?

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: That’s sort of what he’s been trying to do. He has the highest curveball rate of his career. He could probably stand to push it even further, but ultimately, he needs to be able to locate a fastball. I wonder if he’d be best at basically a 1:1:1 mix of fastballs, curveballs, and changeups

9:18

Lunar verLander: So when are we getting tWRC+ and sWRC+?

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: We need to get BB- and K- first!

9:20

Kiermaier’s Post Nasal Drip: Hi Jeff.
What is up with Dallas  Keuchel?

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: Overall, he’s been almost exactly what he was two years ago. Not too far off. His slider hasn’t been very effective — its whiff rate is way down — but otherwise, he’s a familiar-looking guy. One tweak away from getting back on track

9:23

Rick Souddress: What reliever should the Angels be targeting and what should they give up?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: How aggressive the Angels are is going to depend on how much closer they can get to the Mariners/Astros in the coming weeks. They know they’re in the race, but you don’t want to push too much into the middle when you’re several games out of a playoff spot

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: It would probably be pretty easy for them to trade for like Darren O’Day. But I wonder if they look to San Diego for a Tyson Ross/Kirby Yates two-fer

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: Solves two of their major problems. Might even be able to throw in an outfielder if Kole Calhoun doesn’t figure out baseball again

9:26

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Where do you stand on luke heimlich not being drafted: elated or ecstatic?

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: Surprised. I figured there were a few teams willing to take the chance, but in the end maybe they got peer pressured into staying away

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: There’s still time for a team to sign him as an undrafted free agent. Such a team might think that doing so quietly will keep it off the media radar. It would not

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: Overall, it’s kind of powerful to see baseball collectively prioritize something other than winning

9:29

Brandon M: Should the rangers consider optioning Odor? Profar has been performing well and Andrus will be activated from the DL soon while Odor has continued his poor performance from last year

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: I’m given to understand that Odor has a couple of option years remaining. As you say, his wRC+ is 51, after last year’s 61

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Rangers should do more than consider it — I think the Rangers should do it. Profar has earned the opportunity, and Odor has lost the benefit of the doubt

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: He’s been an awful player for too many months. He needs more work, or at least a shock to the system

9:32

CamdenWarehouse: Kelvin Herrera is quietly having a great year in relief (no walks and only one HR allowed in 25 outings). what sort of value could he return to the Royals?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: That breaking ball is really working wonders for him

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: He’s slowed it down by four miles per hour. Four miles per hour!

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: Good reliever, contract season

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: Looking at something kind of like last year’s Addison Reed trade

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: If you don’t like that, then, last year’s Tony Watson trade

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: Or the Pat Neshek trade!

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: Multiple prospects coming back. Don’t expect any of the Gleyber Torres type. But Herrera will be one of the better late-inning relievers available

9:36

kevinthecomic: How often when a coach makes a ‘mechanical’ change, either with a pitcher or a batter, is the change is actually something real as opposed to a placebo so that the pitcher or batter can believe that an error was found and then corrected?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: I think that does happen, but probably not very often, because it’s hard and disruptive to make a mechanical change, so there’s risk that goes along with it

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: If you’re just making a change for mental reasons, well, what are you *actually* changing? You have to be careful

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: I do think — and this should maybe be written about — the media at large makes too much of reported adjustments. It’s a whole genre of baseball writing now: player improves after making X change. It’s compelling and insightful when it’s true and significant, but, I mean, baseball players are ALWAYS making adjustments. It’s critical to separate the impactful ones from the routine and useless ones

9:41

Kyf: What’s the deal with Gary Sanchez? Is he just getting unlucky, with his low Babip?

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: Not quite — he does have a career-high pop-up rate. Those are basically automatic outs

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: He hit 14 pop-ups last season. He already has 15 this year

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: But still, here are Sanchez’s year-to-year BABIPs on ground balls: .250, .240, .071

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: That’s going to change moving forward, as the occasional grounder with eyes makes its way to the grass

9:43

Joe: The Orioles aren’t gonna get much for Machado, are they? Relatedly, everything is terrible.

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: They’ll do okay, but at shortstop, Machado is likely to be in a market with Andrus, and at third, he’s likely to be in a market with Donaldson, Beltre, and Moustakas

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Machado is the best of all of those players, but there aren’t many teams with needs. The Braves are there, of course, but they’re unlikely to want to sacrifice too much for a short-term 2018 push

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Machado will easily bring more back than J.D. Martinez did last summer. But I don’t think such a trade will involve a blue-chip, can’t-miss prospect. There’s just not enough value there

9:46

ChiSox2020: True or False: Baltimore gets a better return for Machado than NYY got for Chapman?

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: According to Baseball America, Gleyber Torres entered 2016 as the No. 41 prospect, and he entered 2017 as the No. 5 prospect

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: Right in the middle of that, he headlined the Chapman return

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s important to understand there’s a difference between Torres then and Torres today, but that being said, if the Orioles get someone of Torres’ caliber in this move, they should be very pleased

9:49

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Whenever expansion is brought up, there is a question of if the area can support a team. Certainly NYC or north Jersey could support another team, but teams have veto power for whatever reason within their territory. Is it a foregone conclusion that the Yankees and Mets cannot be persuaded ($$$) to allow another team into an MSA with more than twice as many people as Chicago?

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: I expect that overall it will just be much much easier to put a new team in a brand-new market

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: The New York area could *definitely* support a third baseball team, but it’s not a coincidence you never see Manfred talking about that

9:51

Guest: Admit it. You’re late on purpose at this point. There’s no way you always have stuff going on Friday mornings.

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: We record a podcast almost every Friday morning from 8-9am

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: As typically happens with every goodbye, it stretches longer than it ought to

9:52

Shawn Baseball, baby!: Hi Jeff,
I find myself having a hard time arguing against people who say the shift should be banned, or at least limited. While obviously technically within the rules, all it seems to do is limit non-home run offense and take away potentially awesome defensive plays.
Am I a grumpy old man? I do turn 30 in a couple weeks.

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: For one thing, it’s hard to create a rule in the first place. How do you define a shift? Do you draw a line out from home plate, intersecting second base? Even if you did that, teams would still shift right up to the line

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: And for another thing, I don’t know if you’ve been reading Russell Carleton’s recent work at Baseball Prospectus, but there’s compelling evidence to suggest that, overall, the shift hasn’t actually…worked

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: Now, it’s changed the game, certainly, but BABIP has hardly moved, and where the shift takes away some singles, it apparently replaces them with increased walks

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: No evidence I’ve seen to suggest that great defensive plays have been reduced. They’re just different

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: If there’s a problem, it’s strikeouts. Reduce strikeouts and you get a lot of baseball back

9:55

TJ: Happy Friday!  Thanks for the chat. What’s your outlook on Pomeranz?  He had a couple good starts, but in general has looked pretty abysmal.  Think he turns it around like he did last year if/when healthy?

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: Very difficult pitcher to trust to remain healthy

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: I like his actual talent, and his curveball is special, but this year he hasn’t thrown his usual stuff. Higher risk than most

9:57

Pat: How popular is THE BOARD now? While I’m really enjoying reading your many articles, THE BOARD gives me another reason to come to fangraphs.

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: I love THE BOARD

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: Kiley and Eric are so wonderful

9:57

Slugger27: at what point will hand gestures to the dugout after every base hit stop being a thing?

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably just habit now, like basketball players giving muted low-fives between free throws

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: Remember though, those things aren’t for us. They’re for them. Group dynamics are always a little weird-looking when you yourself are not a part of the clique

9:59

Dodgerbleu: Happy Friday Jeff!  Looking for your take on Jose Martinez and his lack of pop (HR yesterday aside).  Is this who he is?  Projections are more bearish..

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: Compared to last year, Martinez is making more contact but hitting more grounders. His wRC+ has gone from 135 to 135

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t doubt his ability to hit for power. But I think he can only play to one strength at a time

10:00

Matt: I’m convinced that the best option for the Yankees is Tyson Ross. I don’t think Cashman has the appetite to give up more than one top-tier prospect, and think he would need to to get someone like deGrom. I also think he is (or should be) comfortable with a playoff rotation of Sev/Tanaka/Gray which means the acquisition would only need to help get him there. What kinda package are we looking at? I’m thinking similar to, but a bit more valuable than what we gave for Garcia last year – 2 interesting SP candidates in AA/AAA?

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good chance Ross ends up the best starting pitcher available at the deadline. You could argue for Hamels or Happ, but Ross is compelling, and I remain unconvinced the Mets will *actually* sell on one of their aces

10:02

Jeff Sullivan: Ross will bring back more than Garcia, because Ross is someone you might actually want to start a few times in the playoffs. But we’re still talking about a non-premium package. Better than the Garcia return, but not by a whole lot

10:02

Mike: Jeff – Ross Stripling mentioned that he focuses on throwing the ball where batters don’t pull the ball over 100 MPH. In today’s game where singles matter less and less, is there something to his idea or is it just simple scouting?

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: Just a different way of saying he’s pitching to cold zones instead of hot zones

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: I would worry about the sample sizes he’s dealing with, but I trust the Dodgers to provide him with worthwhile information

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: What’s notable about this is that many times, pitchers say they just pitch to their own strengths. Stripling seems to be saying he’s pitching to opponent weaknesses. Not sure how much better that actually makes him, but he’s open-minded, and not obnoxiously stubborn

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: Very very smart player

10:05

Justin Turner Understeer: Two parter short term/long term on Strasburg.  Any cause for concern with the forearm (even non-throwing)?  And have we seen his peak or does he ever find another gear and hit the Scherzer/Kershaw/Kluber/Sale tier?

10:06

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not worried about what’s happening in Strasburg’s non-throwing arm. As long as it’s attached, he’s okay

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: Meanwhile, since the start of last season, Strasburg is 9th among starters in WAR, 8th in FIP-, and 8th in xFIP-. 6th in ERA-. 7th in K-BB%

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: I know it’s possible he could be better than this, but this *is* peak Strasburg. He is extremely good at pitching

10:09

bighen: What are the Mets doing with Reyes, AGON etc.  shouldn’t they at least see what they have with Cecchini, Dom Smith?   It’s infuriating.

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: Smith and Cecchini have been basically average hitters in Triple-A. It’s not exactly as if they’re beating down the door

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: Cecchini also wouldn’t have a regular position, for now, and the Mets believe that things are complicated with Reyes because of his history with the franchise

10:11

Jeff Sullivan: Given that Reyes is terrible, I, personally, wouldn’t overthink this. But let’s re-visit their situation in a month. Lots of season left

10:11

Slurve: Do you find reasons for players rising or declining more interesting to research and write about?

10:12

Jeff Sullivan: The former. I feel kind of bad about the latter

10:12

Jeff Sullivan: Granted, that is a bias that I have

10:13

Sharp: Its time for the Nats to start preparing for a Murphy-less second half, yeah?

10:15

Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely, they should have such an emergency plan. This doesn’t sound very good

10:18

Funkhouser: Hi Jeff! Is Sean Manaea this bad? What has changed that made him so terrible after April, or is it just a bad month’s run?

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: So, sorry for the delay, but I was digging into this

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: Manaea, indeed, has seen his performance drop off dramatically since April

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: The stuff, though, seems basically the same. Nothing has really changed about his movement or release point

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: The secondary stuff just flat-out hasn’t worked. And it’s probably related to the fact that since the start of May, Manaea’s average slider has been three inches higher than before, and his average changeup has been four inches higher

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: Something has happened that’s prevented him from so effectively burying his soft stuff. When those pitches are up, they’re hittable

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: He’ll straighten it out, but this is why Manaea is more talented than great

10:22

Kevin: Eugenio Suarez is the player with the most trade value that will be traded this summer. True or False.

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: Why would the Reds trade a player they literally just locked up?

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: Now I know that’s sort of what the Padres are looking to do with Brad Hand, but this is different. Suarez is staying put. No sense getting involved in that third-base market anyway

10:23

connor: Steve Duggar is starting to hit in AAA.  Do you think Giants promote him soon?

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: Gorkys Hernandez, by some miracle, has actually hit pretty well, so this situation isn’t desperate, but I do think we’ll see Duggar sooner rather than later

10:24

Broseph: If #CatcherGifs was still a thing Salvador Perez’s reaction to Olson’s bomb yesterday would make a fine entry

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: PitcherGifs and CatcherGifs were always so much fun. Maybe in time I’ll get to do them again if MLB is going to chill out about twitter clips

10:25

Doug: Yankees fans seem shocked to discover that other teams aren’t going to hand over their best pitcher for a collection of third tier prospects. What’s more likely: They give up significant assets (think Andujar, not Frazier) for a frontline starter or settle for, say, Tyson Ross, and hope for the best?

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: Ross. They’d be stupid to trade someone like Miguel Andujar

10:25

Expos Myself: Hey Jeff.  When do you think we see Vlad Jr. up with the Jays. Weeks? Months? Please don’t say only in September 🙁

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: Well, the DL stint doesn’t help

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: They’re still going to want him healthy and they’re still going to want him to see at least a little of Triple-A. I’d think August at the earliest, after Donaldson is potentially traded

10:29

connor: Jose Osuna continues to hit in AAA.  Josh Bell has been less than reliable.  Why don’t the pirates promote Osuna to give Bell a rest?

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: ZiPS and Steamer still both consider Bell the superior hitter

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: Remember that, just last year, Osuna batted 227 times with the Pirates and posted a 78 wRC+

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: Which isn’t to say that Bell hasn’t gotten worse and Osuna hasn’t gotten better, but it’s not so cut and dry

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: They’re probably in the early stages of thinking about a swap. So Bell should try to improve quickly if he wants to keep his job

10:31

Trixie: Shouldn’t the Padres take a break from their decade-long rebuild and try to compete this year?   San Diego fans deserve a little happiness.

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: Last thing a fifth-place team ought to do is trade valuable future assets to try to make the wild-card game

10:32

Jeff Sullivan: I know the NL West looks bizarre this season. I know the Padres are technically in the hunt. But they are not good. This is far more about the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers

10:32

Slurve: Which Mariner from the 116 Win team in 2001 would be the best addition to this team?

10:32

Jeff Sullivan: You mean then or now?

10:33

Jeff Sullivan: Then, Ichiro

10:33

Jeff Sullivan: Now, Ichiro

10:34

Troll Captain: Greetings!  I represent the hundreds nay thousands of trolls who terrorize Dan Szymborski with questions about Nick Markakis.  I will now focus my efforts on you.  Unlike poor, pathetic Dan, you may choose the instrument of your torture.  Name a single player who will be mentioned, asked about, and unduly praised over the next two seasons until you are reduced to gibbering in the fetal position on the floor by your desk.  Might I suggest Eduardo Escobar.

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: Or Eddie Rosario. The choice is yours!

10:34

Billy Beane: Tyler Chatwood, am I right? Like… Wow.

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: Turns out there’s more to pitching than spin rate

10:35

FS: What should Nationals do when Eaton is ready to play? Who doesn’t get regular playing time? Is it Soto, the best Nats OF right now or is it Taylor their best defensive CF who has done well lately at the plate or is it Harper who has had rough time for about two months now?

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: I think you start with a lot of Eaton/Soto/Harper outfields, that become Soto/Taylor/Harper outfields in the later innings

10:37

Jeff Sullivan: And if or when Soto hits the wall, you can send him back to the minors. But for now he’s too good to demote

10:38

CT: Chris Davis contract-worst in the game? Worst in history?

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: Even after this year, Davis is due 4/$92 million, while Pujols is due 3/$87 million, and a bunch of Davis’ money is deferred

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: And remember that Ryan Howard got a $125-million contract for 2012-2016

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: Over that span, he was worth -1.6 WAR

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: This is terrible, but this is not unprecedented

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: Great contract for Chris Davis!

10:43

APODionysus: Obviously the line was… not good, but did you see anything positive or of note in Beeks debut?

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: Every fastball was up, every changeup was down

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: Very Red Sox style performance

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: I think the fastball and changeup profile well together, based on movement, but moving forward, Beeks probably isn’t going to want their locations to be so dramatically separated

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: In other words, bring the fastball back down a little bit

10:47

Mike: It’s June 8th and Joc Pederson is rocking a 133 wrc+ and… a 14% walk rate? Is he going to be a star again in a completely different way?

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: Contact rate is the same as last year. Chase rate is the same as last year. Zone rate is actually *higher* than last year

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: For what it’s worth, the query has a typo — Mike means strikeout rate, not walk rate

10:50

Jeff Sullivan: I think there are some encouraging things here, but as recently as one week ago, Pederson’s wRC+ was 98, and he had one home run. He still doesn’t do anything against lefties. I’m not at all sold he’s a complete player

10:52

mmddyyyy: Do most injured players travel with the team?

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: Often, DL guys stay home when the team is on the road. But there are plenty of exceptions

10:55

MpP : Is Tim Anderson good or just dangerous this year?

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: I have trouble actually trusting his walk rate, given how often he still chases

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: And he’s mostly beaten up bad pitching. .808 OPS against teams under .500, .674 against teams .500 or better

10:57

Jeff Sullivan: But he’s a better player, and he’s obviously in a better place. It’s a slightly positive development

10:58

Lunar verLander: Per your article, the Indians have one of the most team-friendly offensive strike zones. Does that make their early season offensive woes that much worse? The way I interpret it (which may be incorrect), they’ve been ‘gifted’ several strike calls, and they’re still struggling at the plate.

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: The Indians are sixth in baseball now in wRC+

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: They’re third in home runs

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: They were worse in April, but a lot of that was just BABIP noise

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: Lindor! Ramirez! Brantley! The Indians are doing just fine

11:00

Brian: How can you judge a manager of a team when the organization is in tank mode? I ask because it seems to me that the padres young players dont seem to be progressing at the ML level under Green. Is that knock on him as a manager or are these players considered to be AAAA players?

11:01

Jeff Sullivan: The Padres are on a 73-win pace. They were projected to win 72 games, and they haven’t had Dinelson Lamet or, mostly, Wil Myers

11:02

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think player development at the major-league level comes down to the manager. I think you just judge how well such a manager is able to keep the team together and focused and energized over the course of six long months

11:02

Jeff Sullivan: A guy like Green is just there to experiment with some things and try his damnedest to promote a sense of cohesion

11:03

Jeff Sullivan: The other coaches are tasked with making the players better at their jobs

11:03

mmddyyyy: Are RBIs a predictor of really anything?

11:03

Jeff Sullivan: They’re loosely correlated with a bunch of numbers, because it’s mostly good hitters who rack up good RBI totals

11:04

54: Tell me nice things about Ketel Marte breaking out

11:04

Jeff Sullivan: 118 wRC+ over the past month

11:04

Jeff Sullivan: It’s something

11:04

Jeff Sullivan: 40% hard-hit rate

11:04

Tom: Did you officially take Dave’s job? Or who did?

11:05

Jeff Sullivan: Carson is technically the managing editor. So in title, Carson has Dave’s job. In responsibilities, it’s been spread around

11:05

Slurve: Do you have a favorite Olympic Peninsula hike?

11:05

Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t been up there as much as I’d like but a few weeks ago we did Mt Ellinor in maybe the last weekend there was enough snow/ice to make it fun

11:06

Jeff Sullivan: Best glissade I’ve ever had

11:06

Jeff Sullivan: That’s gone for this year, with the changing of the seasons, but it’s still a worthwhile summit even when the snow is mostly gone

11:07

PTBNL: What’s wrong with my boy Rafael Devers?

11:07

Jeff Sullivan: It’s weird — compared to last year, his problem this year has been hitting *lefties*

11:08

Jeff Sullivan: But all his Statcast metrics are more or less unchanged. His xwOBA has actually improved, from .301 to .314

11:10

Spicy Boy: Any reason why Yangervis Solarte perennially runs low BABIPs?

11:10

Jeff Sullivan: Hits a lot of pop-ups

11:10

Jeff Sullivan: Isn’t fast

11:11

Jeff Sullivan: That’ll do it

11:11

Dr. Frank Jobe: How much water does the Chris Davis ship take on before the O;s decide to abandon ship?

11:11

Jeff Sullivan: It would be a lot worse if the Orioles were playing for something

11:11

Jeff Sullivan: As is, based on their window and based on their personnel, they can give him a longer leash. No team ever likes to eat tens of millions of dollars

11:13

mmddyyyy: Would a player that signed after going undrafted this week come with the normal amount of team control?

11:13

Jeff Sullivan: Yep, it’s all the same

11:14

Jeff Sullivan: Kirby Yates was signed as an amateur free agent. Last winter he and the Padres avoided arbitration

11:14

Slurve: Is it possible for a player to have too low of a strike out rate?

11:14

Jeff Sullivan: The Twins seem to believe Willians Astudillo must have too low of a strikeout rate

11:15

Jeff Sullivan: In theory, you could never strike out if you just took horrible swings and made lousy contact. That would be pointless

11:15

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: How are foul tips handled in as far as contact and swinging strikes are concerned?

11:15

Jeff Sullivan: I believe they’re always grouped with regular swinging strikes

11:15

Jeff Sullivan: That’s certainly how I look at them

11:15

mmddyyyy: If Ohtani went to arbitration, would both his hitting and pitching stats count for him?

11:15

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know why they wouldn’t

11:15

Jeff Sullivan: Fun case!

11:16

mmddyyyy: What is the best part of your day?

11:16

Jeff Sullivan: Closing my computer

11:16

Jeff Sullivan: Like right now! It’s time to get rolling

11:16

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/8/18 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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What if… Orioles bundle both Machado with Davis and take next to nothing back. Would there be teams that are so in need of Machado they gamble on Davis contract that he comes up from the water?