Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/17/14

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys, sorry about that, had to wrap up a couple little travel arrangements

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Just by complete chance, I’m going to be in San Diego tomorrow for the Padres’ first home game since yesterday’s awful news. Haven’t cried in a while, so this should bring that streak to an end.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: But let’s talk about good things, and also probably some bad things. Baseball time!

9:11	Comment From Bret Sure, what did you want to chat about?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball time!

9:11	Comment From Lonnie B. Goode breaking: justin verlander has been diagnosed with a terminal case of tim lincecum disease

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: I felt like it might’ve been too easy to just point to the diminished velocity. A lot of the velocity is still there — enough to make him not this bad. But it has to be indicative of something else. Something mechanical? I don’t buy that a difference of less than one tick can make a guy this vulnerable on its own

9:12	Comment From Travis Talk about how amazing Evan Gattis is.

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Did you know he’s also a half-decent pitch framer?

9:12	Comment From Rated Rookie Were the travel arrangements to get Taijuan Walker from Tacoma up to Seattle?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to do that just as soon as they feel comfortable. God knows they hate starting Erasmo Ramirez. But they’re not going to rush Walker given what hes’ been though, and they’re looking into trades

9:14	Comment From Alex JEFF! Tell me good things about Tyler Matzek. Please?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: On the road in the minors — away from Colorado Springs — he allowed a sub-.600 OPS?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: With considerably better strikeout numbers? It’s something

9:16	Comment From 1st place jays Stroman as a starter in the majors: 2.42FIP, 3.07 xFIP, K-BB% of 19.5%, K/9 of 8.5 and a .357 BABIP. Is this sustainable for him? Are you a supporter?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll wait for him to face an offense that’s actually hitting, but most generally I am more of a supporter than a skeptic. I don’t see any good reason why he shouldn’t be able to be a good starting pitcher, even if he’s not a sub-3 FIP starting pitcher

9:17	Comment From Bip Favorite Tony Gwynn memory?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Right after his last game, he did a lap around the field or two, just shaking hands with fans and soaking everything in. He didn’t want to leave. TV broadcast the whole thing, and it was just this overwhelming outpouring of love and support for one of the very last players and people of his type. Usually these things don’t hit me so much, but I kind of grew up with Tony Gwynn as an institution, and it’s going to be all kinds of weird to be at Petco tomorrow night facing what we’re all going to be facing.

9:21	Comment From Kris Braves are thinking of moving Gattis to LF and calling up Bethancourt and BJ Upton to bench.. Thoughts?

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: In May, Upton managed a 91 wRC+. A 91 wRC+ is not good, but at least it qualifies as some kind of sign of life. The Braves definitely need help behind the plate, so I understand the idea here, but hopefully it wouldn’t turn Gattis into an actual regular outfielder. I’m not sure Bethancourt is ready for what that would require

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: Taking one step back, how many teams end up with this much contract regret this soon? On the one hand, the Braves should have an interest in trying to squeeze what they can out of Upton, but then if they really think he’s just toast as a good player, then it’s never too early to stop playing that guy so much

9:25	Comment From Jon Do you think a) the Padres trade Ian Kennedy before deadline, and b) if so, what teams are the best 2 or 3 fits for him?

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: There’s going to be interest, but for one thing, teams haven’t forgotten Kennedy’s recent past, and for another, the Padres are a little light on pitching and Kennedy’s still under control for 2015, so this isn’t a lock the way, say, Hammel is a lock. The same teams that are in on Hammel would probably be interested in Kennedy

9:27	Comment From Ed Watching the Mariners offense this season I have actually cried quite a bit!

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Since May 30, Endy Chavez has led off eight times

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: In the same span, Willie Bloomquist has led off four times

9:28	Comment From landon Do the Jays really need an upgrade in the rotation? Stroman has looked great so far. Wouldn’t being interested in Zobrist be just as big an upgrade?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: Already there’s room there for another starting pitcher, and then you never know what could happen to the current group of guys over the remaining 90-whatever games. They don’t have depth, currently, which they could work to address. But yeah, there are multiple ways for them to improve, and Zobrist would be another avenue. Pricy, but it’s out there.

9:29	Comment From Quinn Is David Wright good at baseball?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Even more than you can know

9:30	Comment From Daniel Is James Jones Juan Pierre’s son?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Ackley, career: 87 wRC+ Jones, career: 88 wRC+ stupid Mariners

9:30	Comment From Felix Watching any World Cup? Who ya got?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: It’s fun, but I don’t go beyond that. I don’t have rooting interests or even a moderate bit of knowledge about the sport. I don’t really advertise this but I don’t have strong feelings about the US national team; I know I’m supposed to, but I’m basically a soccer tourist for the next few weeks and I just want to see good exciting games

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Yesterday, for example, the game was amazing! But had Ghana won late, that also would have been amazing! What a game, it was and also would have been!

9:33	Comment From jocephus a la jimmy johnson: how ’bout them royals?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Fourth in the AL in position-player WAR, fifth in the AL in pitching-staff WAR. They’re still projected as a .500 team, but their odds have skyrocketed as a result of this streak

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Alex Gordon has been one of the few best players in the league for several weeks

9:36	Comment From 1st place jays What is wrong with Buster Posey’s play? Any reason to be worried?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: You can look at this a couple ways. One, he’s having the worst season of his career. Or two, he’s having the worst season of his career, but he’s performing much better than he did in last season’s second half. So it’s hard to determine his actual trajectory. I don’t believe he’s finished being an elite-level player, but he does seem to be missing the power he had at his peak. And maybe not coincidentally, he’s been swinging at more pitches out of the zone since

9:37	Comment From Jake Tough month of play for Solarte. 53 wRC+, .212 BABIP. What’s he look like ROS? Over under 95 wRC+?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: This is what ZiPS and Steamer are for. They put him around 90 the rest of the way. It’s a miracle he’s even been this good

9:39	Comment From Matt Kemp I dated a famous gal too, JV. Good luck staying focused.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure they’ve been together long enough to start taking one another for granted

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: #brains

9:40	Comment From JV Tyson Ross last night… Just a horrendous outing or sign of things to come?

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: He’s never going to be a strike-thrower. Last night he still generated a low contact rate. But when he’s a little too much out of the zone, he then has to come into the zone and he gets a little exploitable. Lots of whiffs but few fouls means he’s kind of an all-or-nothing kind of contact pitcher, and when he’s off he’s going to look unpleasant

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: He’s a fine pitcher who’s a bit raw and who’ll never be an ace

9:43	Comment From Dewey Explain the Royals without mentioning the Tigers depressing slide….

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Remember when the Red Sox lost ten in a row?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Then immediately won seven in a row?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Then immediately lost five in a row?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: There’s nothing to explain. Shit’s weird.

9:44	Comment From David So the Marlins are making moves like they think they might have a playoff shot. Do they?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like they’re just making ordinary, obvious moves, but sure, they have some kind of shot, given that the Nationals haven’t stayed healthy and the Braves are littered with issues

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t buy the Marlins as a particularly good team, but if they can cheaply add, there’s no reason not to. And Heaney was coming no matter what

9:46	Comment From Guest Do You Think Headley could play 1st, maybe the Mariners then could solve their 1st base issue?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Right now I’m not convinced Headley can play Hitter

9:46	Comment From Tucker Hillsboro Hops: best name/brand/mascot in MILB?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I’m also fond of the Biscuits

9:47	Comment From Guest What team best poised for a 2nd half tear?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with the Nationals

9:48	Comment From Dan Rozenson Compare and contrast: Tony Gwynn and peak Oscar Taveras

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Tony Gwynn was one of the best all-time and peak Oscar Taveras will have stretches where he looks like he is also. But he will not be

9:50	Comment From Tucker Why did they ever build Tropicana field?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: to store all the juice

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: “One such design, in the same location where Tropicana Field would ultimately be built, called for an open-air stadium with a circus tent-like covering. It took several design cues from Kauffman Stadium, including fountains beyond the outfield wall.[15]” [wiki]

9:52	Comment From _David_ Erasmo had 16 swinging strikes against Texas, but the results didn’t match…fluke?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: He has a good enough changeup to miss bats when things are working. But what set him apart used to be his ability to throw strikes and locate. That’s gone, which means he’s way too hittable when he’s behind which happens too often

9:53	Comment From Gary All aboard the Oscar Taveras bust train! When will people learn that guys who don’t even show adequate patience in the minors have no hope against real pitchers?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I…what?

9:54	Comment From PieTraynee % chance that McCutchen wins his 2nd MVP this season?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: If you figure the MVP is most likely to come from a playoff team, right now it’d probably be Gomez, since he’s been just as good as McCutchen

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: but I’ll give McCutchen…15% odds? Maybe 20%? The Pirates are in the hunt

9:56	Comment From Guest Are the M’s going to sign their 1st rnd pick?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: of course

9:56	Comment From David What program do you use to convert a video into a GIF?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: AviEdit

9:56	Comment From Alex Thanks Jeff. I can’t seem to find an answer so I turn to you again: Does TJS on position players have an impact on their hitting?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not really something to worry about. I’m not a…physiologist?…but the elbow isn’t as important to hitting as it is to pitching. Hitters don’t really end up with hurt elbows. They end up with hurt shoulders and wrists. If you can avoid injuries there, you’re golden

9:58	Comment From jocephus did you see any of carlos martinez’s start? any thoughts? should he be starting, etc

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I really just don’t buy him as a starter. Which isn’t to say I don’t think he could have any success, but I don’t think it’s where he’d have the longest career