Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/18/13
| 8:57 |
: We might start this thing on time!
|
| 8:59 |
Doubt it. |
| 8:59 |
: One minute early!
|
| 8:59 |
: Hi guys!
|
| 9:00 |
are you a kluber believer? |
| 9:01 |
: As a good pitcher? Yeah, I’m there. As an ace pitcher? I’ll stay cautious, and maybe he’s pulling this year’s Kris Medlen, sort of.
|
| 9:01 |
: Not a lot to be skeptical of, though. He’s got it all working.
|
| 9:02 |
Happy Zack Wheeler Day! |
| 9:02 |
: This is an important time of year, when baseball gets a flood of interesting prospects right when you start to realize how damn long the regular season is
|
| 9:02 |
: “Wait there are HOW many more –ooh, Wil Myers!”
|
| 9:03 |
does rendon have a vice grip on a starting job in 2014 now? |
| 9:03 |
: Strong grip but Danny Espinosa won’t be discarded that easily or thoughtlessly. A healthy Espinosa is still a good player
|
| 9:04 |
Hey Jeff! Quick question: Um, Adam Lind, WTF?!?! |
| 9:04 |
: Swing rates:
2011: 50% |
| 9:05 |
: Might be something actually going on. Obviously he’s not this good, though. Just cherish not hating a guy you hate
|
| 9:05 |
Nothing but fantasy baseball questions coming your way this morning, get pumped. |
| 9:05 |
: I am the one in control
|
| 9:05 |
If Stephen Drew Maintains his current level of production what type of prospect return could the Red Sox see in a trade? Would they be better off waiting till the off-season and giving him a qualifying offer to collect a first round pick? |
| 9:06 |
: Stephen Drew?
|
| 9:06 |
: The Stephen Drew with the sub-.300 wOBA?
|
| 9:06 |
: He’s not worthless as a shortstop but you’re going to want to switch to a different fantasy today.
|
| 9:07 |
Is it ever really a good idea to intentionally walk a batter other than when it brings up a massive advantage–like a pitcher or the possibility for a double play? I mean, even the best batters fail 70 percent of the time, so I feel as though pitchers have a huge advantage anyway. |
| 9:07 |
: As with bunting, there are certain appropriate situations, but they’re rare, and yeah, most generally it isn’t a good idea to put an extra guy on base if you don’t have to.
|
| 9:08 |
Can Nick Franklin, who was in the vetoed Justin Upton trade, outhit Upton the rest of the season? |
| 9:08 |
: He sure can, but he probably won’t
|
| 9:08 |
would you rather see hanley play through the pain or should he just bite the bullet, go on the dl, and get robot legs installed? |
| 9:08 |
: Big fan of robot legs. Could additionally help raise awareness of others with robot legs
|
| 9:09 |
: But, would baseball allow robot legs? Let’s take this to an extreme. Say there’s a guy with a prosthetic arm. It’s incredible technology and it allows him to throw the baseball super hard and super accurately. Would baseball allow that? How far can technology go?
|
| 9:09 |
Lots of talk about Jesse Crain, what’s the big whop? |
| 9:09 |
: I wouldn’t say “lots”
|
| 9:09 |
How has Zunino performed behind the dish? |
| 9:09 |
: Just fine. The defense isn’t the concern
|
| 9:09 |
Would you rather chat at 9am or have West Coast games start at 10pm? |
| 9:10 |
: Chat at 9am. I did the whole 10pm thing for four years from college. I don’t know how I blogged about those seasons. I do know why I didn’t really get the true college experience. Thanks, Mariners.
|
| 9:11 |
Porcello is on quite a run, and apparently a curve is the reason, and no slider. If so, how much better than last year do you think he will be? |
| 9:11 |
: Wrote about this late last month www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rick-porcellos-latest-tease/
|
| 9:11 |
: Looking like a very good starter
|
| 9:11 |
good morning! rank these careers from best to worst: teheran/wheeler/bauer/wacha/gausman |
| 9:11 |
: They’ve all just gotten started
|
| 9:12 |
: Look, I will put these names in an order for you. That’s what you want. But is it what you want, really? Do you really think I’m capable of predicting five different futures based on almost zero long-term information?
|
| 9:12 |
: Wheeler/Gausman/Teheran/Wacha/Bauer. There you are.
|
| 9:13 |
: That’s my best guess. It’s a guess.
|
| 9:13 |
Any predictions on the closest the Royals get to the Tigers in the standings ROS? |
| 9:13 |
: What are they, five back now?
|
| 9:13 |
: I’d say about five back.
|
| 9:13 |
: The Royals are doing an admirable job these days. They’re not the Tigers, and they’re not close.
|
| 9:14 |
Is Miguel Montero going to turn it around? |
| 9:14 |
: .792 OPS since May 26. A lot of that is BABIP, but the situation isn’t hopeless. Still got a promising track record
|
| 9:14 |
Wild prediction on Wheeler’s start tonight? |
| 9:15 |
: I’ll give him the ol’ Cole prediction. 5.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 4 K. My Cole prediction was way off.
|
| 9:15 |
: It would be somewhat interesting to look at the collective history of top pitching prospect debuts
|
| 9:15 |
The shift is so yesteryear. Is there a rule prohibiting a team from pulling the catcher to get another IF/OF in place? May have to give the umpire a glove or switch to automated balls/strikes, but minor details. |
| 9:16 |
: So I guess I can’t do a quick scan of the rule book but I am almost certain having a catcher is mandatory.
|
| 9:16 |
: Sorry, Twins.
|
| 9:17 |
: Fun fact, about shifting:
|
| 9:17 |
: 2010: .297 BABIP
2011: .295 2012: .297 2013: .296 |
| 9:18 |
: How much is it helping? I’m honestly curious
|
| 9:18 |
Krist Medlen is still a good pitcher |
| 9:18 |
: He sure is
|
| 9:18 |
: He sure isn’t what he was last season
|
| 9:19 |
Better debut today: Wheeler or Myers? Who would you rather have long-term? |
| 9:19 |
: Wheeler, Myers, just out of natural pitcher cynicism. Or skepticism. Whichever
|
| 9:19 |
: It is interesting that Myers’ Triple-A contact rate is down from 79% last year to 70% this year
|
| 9:20 |
: It’s gotten better by month in 2013, though, so, who knows. The Jay Bruce comparisons sustain
|
| 9:20 |
So..Arenado plays a pretty good 3B. His highlights are amazing. |
| 9:20 |
: Yes
|
| 9:20 |
If Eric Wedge is fired does Raul Ibanez step in as player-manager? |
| 9:20 |
: I think they go managerless
|
| 9:20 |
How about those Padres huh? |
| 9:21 |
: Decent team, winnable division
|
| 9:21 |
I enjoyed watching Felix pitch this weekend, but can you blame me for changing the channel when the Mariners “hit”? |
| 9:21 |
: Were you in control of the remote? If so, yes, of course, I can blame you, because you were responsible.
|
| 9:22 |
Why is Homer Bailey under-performing his peripherals? |
| 9:22 |
: For no reason to worry much about
|
| 9:23 |
: .253 wOBA with the bases empty, .339 with men on base. He’ll be okay
|
| 9:23 |
ZIPS projects Zack Greinke to a 3.12 FIP RoS. Is that entirely based on his past performance? Or is there something in his current performance that makes ZIPS bullish on him? |
| 9:24 |
: Looks like it’s not putting much stock in Greinke’s nine starts so far in 2013. That’s probably too optimistic a projection
|
| 9:25 |
Will Middlebrooks: is he broken? Any reason for optimism that he can turn it around? |
| 9:26 |
: Every week there’s a new Middlebrooks question and every week he’s still mired in a slump. At this point he might need to go find some self-confidence in Triple-A. Last season is reason for future optimism, but right now he’s hurting more than helping
|
| 9:27 |
More like Happy Wil Myers Day!!! |
| 9:27 |
: It’s always exciting before you start taking the young players for granted, which you will, soon
|
| 9:27 |
: We’re all monsters
|
| 9:27 |
Should the Phillies stop playing Delmon Young in the outfield on a daily basis? |
| 9:27 |
: um yes he’s terrible
|
| 9:28 |
: This isn’t even stathead over-the-top bias. He’s just terrible.
|
| 9:28 |
: Projected rest-of-season: 0.0 WAR
|
| 9:28 |
Your JPA comp for Zunino was a joke, right? That’s just mean. |
| 9:28 |
: Realistic offensive outcome, although Zunino should have better defense
|
| 9:29 |
: Maybe not so much this year’s Arencibia. 2011’s Arencibia
|
| 9:29 |
How concerned are you about wil Meyers strikeout rate? |
| 9:29 |
: Somewhat. It’s the flaw but I want to see it in action
|
| 9:29 |
Would you try to deal Myers with all the hype? Is he really better than say an Aoki in a H2H pts league (no neg. for CS)? |
| 9:30 |
: Uh so I can’t speak to the fantasy part but I would probably explore trading Myers while his name value is through the roof
|
| 9:30 |
What do you think of the plan to make Jurickson Profar “a functional LF?” |
| 9:30 |
: I think versatility is greatly underrated in today’s game, and the A’s are supporting evidence. Profar won’t forget how to play shortstop, and this’ll open up some options. I think I actually like it
|
| 9:30 |
has dan haren become worthless? |
| 9:30 |
: no
|
| 9:31 |
: Can’t count on those dingers keeping up, even if it feels like they will
|
| 9:31 |
Mike Leake is the _______ best starter on the reds? |
| 9:31 |
: 4th? 5th?
|
| 9:32 |
Do you think Wacha will be back in majors this year? |
| 9:32 |
: yes
|
| 9:32 |
What has gotten into Mike Leake? |
| 9:32 |
: Nothing that wasn’t there before!
|
| 9:33 |
: same xFIP- as always. He’s reduced some of the dingers, and given what we know about dingers…
|
| 9:33 |
Do we see Brian Wilson in the 9th inning regularly at all this season? |
| 9:33 |
: not in major-league 9th innings
|
| 9:34 |
re Kluber, Can you give him a relative ranking to determine whether or not to pick him up? |
| 9:34 |
: Pick him up
|
| 9:34 |
Is Rob Neyer happy |
| 9:34 |
: I’d describe him as content
|
| 9:34 |
Can teams trade players on the DL? Could teams try to buy low on Espinosa? |
| 9:34 |
: Yes and yes but don’t count on that
|
| 9:35 |
This is beaten to death: But seriously, why does Francouer still earn an MLB paycheck?? |
| 9:35 |
: Strong arm, looks good, personable
|
| 9:36 |
At what point does Nick Franklin skepticism (based on the fact that he’s a Mariner, is starting his career like Ackley) become Nick Franklin optimism? |
| 9:36 |
: When he plays well for a year
|
| 9:36 |
Colby Rasmus’ contact % is getting closer to 70% now, and resulting in lots of dingers. |
| 9:37 |
: wRC+ by month: 101, 117, 134. The strikeouts have gotten less Ankielian
|
| 9:38 |
Do you think the Cards made the right move with sending Wacha down and keeping Lyons up? Lyons did look pretty awful against the Marlins and has been subpar his last 3 starts |
| 9:39 |
: I probably would’ve kept Wacha, but Lyons isn’t bad, and maybe this way they don’t have to worry about Wacha Super-2 concerns later on
|
| 9:39 |
MAX POWER SCHERZER! |
| 9:39 |
: Yes he’s tremendous
|
| 9:39 |
What do you make of Gee’s recent performance? |
| 9:39 |
: He’s last year’s Dillon Gee, this year
|
| 9:40 |
: Maybe a hair better. He’s pretty good
|
| 9:40 |
What are the odds of the Phillies dealing Cliff Lee? |
| 9:40 |
: Apparently low
|
| 9:40 |
Where do you see Chris Davis’s true talent level at? He’s been awesome this year? |
| 9:41 |
: wOBA around .380 or so. Anyone notice the career .343 BABIP? Dude’s strong.
|
| 9:41 |
More disappointing: Jays or Angels? |
| 9:41 |
: Angels
|
| 9:41 |
If Espinosa plays better when healthy, Nats still have to be concerned about Zimmerman’s long term ability to stay at 3B. Plus, neither Zimmerman nor Rendon have exactly shown themselves to be guys you can count on to be healthy for 150 games a year. |
| 9:42 |
: Versatility again. Maybe the Nats have five infielders for four positions. Maybe that’s not a problem. This is a workable situation
|
| 9:42 |
Does Ackley need to convert to the outfield to find his way back to Seattle? Franklin seems to be hitting pretty well, and he isn’t as versatile position wise. |
| 9:43 |
: Ackley is already working on his outfield defense and he could be up pretty soon. Not a permanent conversion, necessarily, but this is about versatility once more. Gives the team options, and a way to play Ackley and Franklin at once
|
| 9:43 |
Obviously, pulling the catcher would only be done with nobody on base if I didn’t state that in my question. |
| 9:43 |
Why is Munenori Kawasaki suddenly getting attention this year? Are the Blue Jays much more popular than the M’s? |
| 9:44 |
: The Blue Jays are better, Kawasaki is playing better, and the Jays have a considerable internet presence
|
| 9:44 |
was there a hype machine on profar? 2 hr’s and no steals so far. Franklin’s a better call-up. |
| 9:44 |
: Profar is outstanding
|
| 9:44 |
Do we really get a “flood of new prospects” or does it just seem that way becaus of hype? I don’t remember this being a prospect time until recently even though “Super Two” has been around since 1986 or so. |
| 9:45 |
: A good number of top prospects are getting playing time now and that isn’t a coincidence. It isn’t a large-scale landscape change, but it’s a thing
|
| 9:45 |
Do you believe the Tigers would trade anything of value for Paps? I can’t believe they’d do it. |
| 9:45 |
: You can’t?
|
| 9:46 |
Defense at 3B this year is nuts: Machado, Arenado are unbelievable. |
| 9:46 |
: Zimmerman 🙁
|
| 9:46 |
I understand JUpton is not as good as April and not as bad as recent but c’mon 1 HR is about a month??? Do I just wait it out or cut bait? |
| 9:46 |
: Without knowing the first thing about your league, no, you shouldn’t just cut Justin Upton from your team.
|
| 9:47 |
Kawasaki gets sent down when Reyes comes back…right? |
| 9:47 |
: Maybe not? Bonifacio’s been crap.
|
| 9:48 |
Cards’ starters (other than Wainwright) showing signs of fatigue? Something to be worried about moving forward? |
| 9:49 |
: June xFIP = May xFIP. They’re doing okay.
|
| 9:49 |
Brian Wilson speculation? |
| 9:49 |
: None at all, and that’s how I like it
|
| 9:50 |
With the use of video and exploding knowledge of how to exploit every player’s tendencies, are players who are more willing/ able to make adjustments the new market inefficiency? I know this has always been valuable, but is it relatively more so now? |
| 9:51 |
: Players who make adjustments will be good. Players who don’t make adjustments will be worse. The market inefficiency might be versatility, or changeups. There are probably multiple inefficiencies.
|
| 9:52 |
If the royals make a wild card spot will the Meyers trade end up being a win? |
| 9:52 |
: I don’t think that’s how trades should be evaluated. And Jeff Francoeur has been worth negative WAR. And I can’t see the Royals taking a wild card.
|
| 9:52 |
What do you think about Mike Zunino ROS? What about Wheeler? |
| 9:52 |
: decent, a little better than decent
|
| 9:52 |
padres are now 1 game out of first place. what can they do between now and the deadline to make sure they have an actual shot of contending? their pitching is atrocious. do you see them pursuing outside help (nolasco?) or internal help (erlin)? |
| 9:53 |
: Both of those seem like fine ideas. The most general point: rotation upgrade. That’s what they need most, and they don’t have to land an ace.
|
| 9:53 |
Are the Padres actually good? And if so, how? |
| 9:54 |
: They’re a half-decent team on a hot streak, just like the Royals
|
| 9:54 |
: Just wrote about this yesterday
|
| 9:55 |
What pitching duel would you most like to see at this point of the season? |
| 9:55 |
: Darvish/Cingrani could be fun
|
| 9:55 |
I hadn’t checked the standings in a while. The Brewers!? Geez. How are things so wrong when they are a good team on paper getting a couple of randomly great performances? |
| 9:56 |
: Black holes
|
| 9:56 |
: I’m not saying they’ve been crippled by Corey Hart’s absence, but they have a .503 OPS out of first base
|
| 9:57 |
: Rickie Weeks hasn’t done crap. Too many starters have underperformed
|
| 9:58 |
The Tigers have a platoon of Dirks and Tuiasasosospososo going in left field and both seem to be very average players. When do you think we see a Castellanos call up? |
| 9:59 |
: Within a month? Looking more and more like he’s ready although I can’t speak to his defensive ability
|
| 10:00 |
What’s the highest WPA play that you can think of? |
| 10:00 |
: In theory, the two-out, walk-off grand slam when you’re down 3 runs
|
| 10:01 |
: That’ll be something like +0.91
|
| 10:01 |
Jays win six in a row! Just three games back of .500! Just eight games out in the AL East! Five-and-a-half back of the wild card! Exclamation marks! Should Jays fans get any excited, or is this all still too dire? |
| 10:02 |
: Of course you can get excited because the season isn’t yet beyond saving but recognize that the odds are still long. Projected standings have Jays finishing at 81-81 http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
|
| 10:03 |
I’m actually a good hitter now, aren’t I? |
| 10:03 |
: Somewhere in the vicinity of average, yeah
|
| 10:04 |
For someone that tall, Mike Morse doesn’t seem to be able to reach for any throws at first base. |
| 10:04 |
: In fairness he’s not a first baseman. He’s a DH
|
| 10:06 |
What are your thoughts on Alfredo Figaro in Milwaukee? He has the highest fastball velocity of any SP with at least 20 IP not named Strasburg or Harvey and some base skills this year. Think he can perform well? |
| 10:07 |
: Just now getting caught up on the story. Boring pitcher goes to Japan, pitches decently, comes back brand new. Might be able to pitch to lefties now. He’s of interest to me, although not of that *much*
|
| 10:07 |
: Vogelsongy career path
|
| 10:08 |
The latest drivel to come out of the Mets’ front office is that they’re soon ready to spend because of the emergence of a “talented young core”. Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t their core consist entirely of Harvey and Wright and now possibly Wheeler? The only offensive core guy is on the wrong side of 30. Without going outside the system, how many “core” guys could the Mets possible have? |
| 10:09 |
: Does D’Arnaud count? Yeah, the core isn’t there yet. But whatever they can do to try to keep spirits up. Fans don’t want to hear that they need to be patient
|
| 10:09 |
Do you think Nick Franklin will be better than Ackley because he wasnt rushed? And will Ackley be the solution at CF? |
| 10:09 |
: I don’t think that’s why, and, no
|
| 10:11 |
When is it smart to pinch hit for a better hitter with a (significantly) worse hitter because of hitter platoon splits against a LH reliever? |
| 10:11 |
: Almost never, especially given the pinch-hitter penalty.
|
| 10:12 |
Regarding FIP, should homeruns be considered more dangerous to higher walk and/or groundball pitchers? |
| 10:13 |
: HR might be more dangerous to GB pitchers, but then FB pitchers will allow more doubles and triples. FIP works well because of its simplicity and while you can make it more complicated, you don’t need to, because it won’t make that much of a difference
|
| 10:13 |
OMG WIL MYERS! You excited? |
| 10:13 |
: Well he’s not my prospect
|
| 10:14 |
: I seldom really get “excited” over baseball. I just follow it contentedly. I get excited over hockey and the outdoors
|
| 10:14 |
: and squirrels eating in trees
|
| 10:14 |
Jimmy Rollins is he done as an above-average SS? |
| 10:14 |
: Probably not, but close
|
| 10:15 |
The Pirates can’t do the same thing for a 3rd year in a row, right? There can’t possibly be another 2nd half collapse in store…right?! |
| 10:15 |
: A big part of me hopes not, and a big part of me hopes so
|
| 10:15 |
: I like to have some consistency, some dependability in my sports. The Pirates are making things all weird
|
| 10:16 |
which team close to contention now do you see becoming a seller as the trade deadline approaches? |
| 10:16 |
: Do the Phillies count?
|
| 10:16 |
: It’s not an easy question. There’s not much reason for teams close to the race to sell
|
| 10:17 |
Do you think Mujica can keep this up or will Rosenthal take over at some point? |
| 10:17 |
: Mujica’s got it this year
|
| 10:17 |
How long do you keep Ackley in the minors? |
| 10:17 |
: Until he’s punishing outside pitches consistently and using left field. No specific time frame for that
|
| 10:17 |
Would you comment on the George Brett change in KC. There does seem to be an improvement in the hitting since he got there. Is that really causal? |
| 10:18 |
: When was he named coach, May 30?
|
| 10:19 |
: Royals through May 29: .689 OPS
Royals since May 30: .661 OPS |
| 10:19 |
: If you want to believe any narrative, then George Brett has made the Royals worse.
|
| 10:19 |
True or False: There is no such thing as a pitching prospect? |
| 10:19 |
: False, stupid
|
| 10:20 |
: Not calling you stupid! Calling the theory stupid.
|
| 10:20 |
It seems like many writers assume that a high number of ‘just enough’ home runs means a player is getting lucky and that the home runs will stop (example: Segura). Isn’t there a chance that hitting ‘just enough’ home runs (or line drive home runs) is actually a skill based upon your batted ball profile? |
| 10:20 |
: Off the top of my head I suspect it’s both. Some guys might be more prone to just-enough home runs, but high totals are going to have a lot to do with luck as well.
|
| 10:21 |
: Leader in just-enoughs in both 2011 and 2012: Miguel Cabrera
|
| 10:22 |
: I think the real key is showing power max. If a guy has yet to hit a homer 400 feet, that tells you something about his power upside. Segura’s topped out at 430. He’s not weak
|
| 10:23 |
Bigger Raw power: Stanton or Mark McGwire? |
| 10:23 |
: Probably McGwire but man I’d like to see him in the Hit Tracker era
|
| 10:23 |
Why don’t teams that haven’t peed on their fanbase (Marlins) but struggle (Mets, Royals, Mariners, etc.) offer dirt cheap/free tickets just to fill the seats? They would still make a ton more $ selling concessions to turn more of a profit then regular priced tickets. Plus it could generate more fans. What am I missing? |
| 10:25 |
: Teams have a lot of people in charge of maximizing revenue, because teams are businesses. They’ve thought about everything and what you see is probably more or less the optimized approach. Maybe teams aren’t aggressive enough in offering dirt-cheap tickets but they know how to get the most money out of an audience
|
| 10:25 |
How is it living in Portland? I’ve always been curious about it and heard nothing but things about that place |
| 10:25 |
: It is fantastic, absolutely fantastic
|
| 10:26 |
will the mariners try and resign both morales and morse? |
| 10:26 |
: They’ll probably make some effort at Morales. I think they might well be prevented from making an effort at Morse, depending on what happens with the front office
|
| 10:26 |
What do I have to do to get a question answered in this chat? Some folks seem to be able to get 3 or 4 of theirs in, grammatical errors and all. This feels futile. |
| 10:26 |
: Isn’t this awkward for you now
|
| 10:26 |
Is there any pitcher in baseball for whom you would trade Matt Harvey, taking into account cost? |
| 10:27 |
: I…hmm.
|
| 10:27 |
: Probably not, no.
|
| 10:28 |
: Maybe Miller, maybe Fernandez
|
| 10:29 |
J. Castro in Houston – think we’re seeing a legit breakout or just a hot streak? |
| 10:29 |
: Pretty good player!
|
| 10:29 |
how many more of erasmo’s starts are the m’s going to waste, before they put him in the big-league rotation? over/under 3 more starts. |
| 10:29 |
: I’d expect him within a couple weeks, if his elbow doesn’t give out
|
| 10:29 |
Field F/X will be __% as big a deal for analysis as Pitch F/X. |
| 10:30 |
: 60-70%? We already have fielding approximations and pitching/hitting is more important
|
| 10:30 |
: That’s the simplistic answer
|
| 10:30 |
: These are all simplistic answers 🙁
|
| 10:30 |
Jeff: is waiting for .900 OPS Alex Avila to return like “Waiting for Godot”? |
| 10:30 |
: Yeah you should give that up
|
| 10:31 |
Any opinions on Victorino’s season so far? |
| 10:32 |
: Not of real interest. He’s an average player
|
| 10:32 |
Why does the FanGraphs Mariners Depth Chart project Endy Chavez to get only 39 PA the remainder of the season? Seems like he’s line for much more than that, unfortunately… |
| 10:32 |
: Because I refuse to acknowledge the horrible horrible truth
|
| 10:32 |
Is the A’s stadium situation a bigger smite on MLB than PED’s? |
| 10:32 |
: Yes, in that more people care about it
|
| 10:32 |
How good can Erasmo Ramirez be? |
| 10:33 |
: Pretty good! #2 starter good!
|
| 10:33 |
Who finishes better according to your gut…Derek Holland or Mike Leake? |
| 10:33 |
: Holland
|
| 10:33 |
Think Gerrit Cole or Zack Wheeler has a better 2013? |
| 10:33 |
: Wheeler
|
| 10:34 |
Do you think the soon comebacks of Eaton and Hill will give the Diamondbacks a significant boost to their offense (compare to Pollock and Bloomquist/Pennington at their respective positions)? |
| 10:35 |
: Yes, that would be a big help for them
|
| 10:35 |
Do you agree that Detroit or a team with bullpen needs should target Jesse Crain over Papelbon? |
| 10:35 |
: Yes, if I’m allowed to presume the costs.
|
| 10:35 |
HOCKEY. How ’bout all that OT? |
| 10:35 |
: unparalleled
|
| 10:35 |
Who do you have taking the Stanley Cup? My money is on Boston, should be a good series though. |
| 10:35 |
: Boston!
|
| 10:36 |
I’m kinda having fun watching the Astros throwing stuff against the wall to see if it sticks: Fernando Martinez, no, wait, Jimmy Paredes…how about Trevor Crowe? Brandon Barnes? Robbie Grossman? J.D. Martinez? Justin Maxwell? What else can you do. It’d be nice to catch lightning in a bottle. |
| 10:36 |
: The Astros are in the middle of a true no-downside, experimental season. They have a year to do whatever they want. It’s probably exciting for them, too.
|
| 10:37 |
I’m on a one man mission to discredit DIPs theory. |
| 10:37 |
: And look at that, it’s your old friend Aaron Harang!
|
| 10:38 |
Can you explain Derek Holland’s recent struggles? |
| 10:38 |
: I strongly suspect it’s nothing to worry about, but his velocit’ys been a little down
|
| 10:38 |
Better question – how much of a dip does Ackley’s long term value take in LF vs 2B? |
| 10:38 |
: None, if he’s a good outfield defender.
|
| 10:39 |
Which division seems to be locked up the earliest, and which one seems like it will go right down to the final series of the season? I’d think NL East (i.e. Braves starting to run away with it) and AL East. NL West only appears close, I can’t believe all 4 of the 4 of 5 teams within a couple games of each other can keep that up. |
| 10:40 |
: There are no doubts in my mind about the AL Central, and, yeah, I think the AL East is a tight one, although the NL West has the potential to be a real cluster
|
| 10:40 |
Where can I find average stats by position — e.g., an average shortstop is hitting AVG/OBP/SLG? |
| 10:40 |
Fluoride in Portland, pro or con, or stay out of politics on FG board. Frankly, I’m reminded of General Jack Ripper. |
| 10:41 |
: Pro and I can’t stand anti-science
|
| 10:41 |
Would you put Machado in with Trout and Harper in terms of overall talent? |
| 10:41 |
: Less and less reason not to
|
| 10:42 |
Should the Pirates consider an extension for Alvarez? |
| 10:42 |
: They can consider it, but he isn’t very good and he isn’t getting better
|
| 10:42 |
who wins in a fight: cameron or cistulli? |
| 10:42 |
: Cameron, if Cistulli doesn’t run away first
|
| 10:43 |
Jeff, I know you’re a Mariners fan. Tell me about Erasmo Ramirez |
| 10:43 |
: Good pitcher, underrated because of his command/changeup, I’m worried about his elbow
|
| 10:43 |
Kennedy or Ogando ROS? |
| 10:43 |
: Kennedy. Ogando has a shoulder thing going on.
|
| 10:44 |
What current major leaguer is least deserving of his employment? |
| 10:44 |
: Yuni Betancourt
|
| 10:44 |
Jason Marquis? The exception to the rule? He’s hittable; walks almost everyone; possibly may never k another hitter; has an average, or less, defense behind him and yet his record is very good. Is he a right handed Barry Zito zen character? Is he Gaylord Perry is disguise? Is he doing this to ruin sabermetrics? |
| 10:44 |
: Last year, his FIP was bad and his ERA was bad and his record was bad
|
| 10:45 |
Response to the ticket price question. Imagine you’re a season ticket holder, and you know the guy sitting next to you paid 75% less for his ticket because the team was doing poorly. You would have to think that customer would be less like to buy season tickets next year if he thought that the value of his investment would drop just because the team was doing poorly. |
| 10:45 |
: And that
|
| 10:45 |
Do you know where I could get Wil Myers splits? |
| 10:46 |
Will Ryan Raburn be playing every day somewhere next year? |
| 10:46 |
: Not out of the gate
|
| 10:46 |
So based on Chris Davis’ BABIP for his career, can he be relatively close to this good throughout his prime? |
| 10:46 |
: Not this good. This is obscenely good. But he shouldn’t experience complete BABIP regression to a familiar .300
|
| 10:47 |
: It has been 107 minutes! I need to get going!
|
| 10:47 |
: Thank you everybody for coming along, and I’m sorry for the stuff I didn’t have a chance to get to. The queue, as always, is overwhelmingly active. We’ll do it again next Tuesday at the same time, and have wonderful afternoons and evenings. Bye!
|
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Thoughts on Teheran the rest of the way? k/9 rising, and some crazy good bb/9 ratios. does he keep it up?