Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/24/16

June 24, 2016

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: First chat in a few weeks!

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Let us baseball chat, posthaste

9:08	Frank: Is Teheran wearing a Red Sox uniform come August?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Think of it kind of like World Series odds — the Red Sox might be the team with the greatest probability, but that actual probability is likely no higher than, say, 20%

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: So few decent pitchers out there. So many teams looking. Dombrowski might be the most willing to overspend to get what he wants, but I wouldn’t exactly count on that

9:09	Spork: Has the Stanton buy low window closed?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: This is probably a fantasy question but in real-life terms, when a player like Giancarlo Stanton has an ugly, below-replacement month, the proper conclusion is generally that the player just had an injury and he will shortly return to being elite

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Stanton has long been amazing. Stands to reason his natural talent level is amazing

9:11	Aladdin Sane: What do you see offensively from Addison Russell long term? How about Willson Contreras?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Russell seems like sort of a borderline power guy who’s going to be vulnerable to big swings in slugging percentage depending on when the wind in Wrigley is blowing in or out

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: He already walks a lot for someone so young and the contact will probably get a little better. He is still just 22. But I see something like a sustained 110 wRC+ or so, rather than something elite

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Contreras is neat. Obvious strength and I love that he’s resolved his strikeouts as he’s gone up against more high-level competition. Not a lot of young players whiff less while maintaining their walks. Kind of a flatter swing that might limit long-term homers but he’s a big-league-ready bat today

9:17	Vic Romano: Willson Contreras looked pretty good at 1B yesterday, and Maddon is saying he might see some time in the OF as well. Is there any end in sight to the Cubs’ constant parade of young phenoms?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: There is an end to everything and everyone

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Only question is whether you meet your own end before the Cubs meet theirs

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: That one’s 50/50

9:19	Ed in Iowa: WAR for relievers doesn’t account for the identity of the hitters faced, correct? So someone like Andrew Miller, if used appropriately, is actually more valuable than his WAR would indicate because he’s generally going to be wiping out an inning of the other team’s best hitters. True?

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: You are correct that WAR doesn’t account for opposition quality. At some point it probably will, and that’ll be neat. But it’s worth remembering that these things do more or less average out, and relievers are compared to other relievers, who face tougher opponents than starters, generally

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Looking at numbers on Baseball Prospectus, the pitcher with the toughest opponents so far — minimum 20 IP — is Tony Cingrani

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: .267/.341/.438 average opponent slash line. Then you’ve got Hunter Cervenka, and Daniel Hudson

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Relievers who are selectively used probably deserve more credit. It’s like how, say, Clayton Kershaw deserves more credit for his platoon splits because the only lefties he faces are the best ones. But in the end it doesn’t move the needle too much

9:24	Slugger27: can you be the first chatter to retire Bork’s “hello, friend”?? The charm is long gone at this point.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Amiability never loses its charm

9:25	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:25	j6takish: Jeff, now that David DeJesus is basically out baseball, who is your go-to mental image of a “league average player”. If the answer isn’t Yunel escobar, please explain why

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Yunel Escobar would be a decent example but I simply can’t think of him without thinking of his personality background. He isn’t a boring league-average person

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The right answer is probably Yangervis Solarte. So average, so boring

9:27	Ronnie: What are we to make of team DRS/UZR outliers like last years A’s (+16/-33) & Astros (+30/-3), or the 2014 Pirates (+28/-40) & Angels (-20/+26), or the 2013 Blue Jays (+15/-25) & A’s (-55/+13), etc?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: One thing to remember is that UZR, unlike DRS, doesn’t fold in pitcher or catcher defense, so that can be a contributing factor. But anyway, it’s a case-by-case basis thing, and a good idea would be to average the two, but you want to check with other numbers that measure ball-in-play efficiency. With a little research you can see which number might make more sense

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Ultimately the biggest thing is these outliers are reminders that defensive numbers come with big error bars. Statcast, one hopes, will help in short order, but we’re better at grouping defenses than actually ranking and valuing them

9:30	Justin: First, Dave Cameron was fired by the Senators. Now Dave Cameron is stepping down as PM. Should we expect Dave Cameron to retire from FanGraphs next?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve been appealing to David Appelman that we should try to hire the other two Dave Camerons

9:31	Andrew: Construct a (semi-realistic) blockbuster trade involving the Mets? Please and thank you.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I guess I’d say they don’t need a blockbuster?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: But if they really wanted I could see them going after Lucroy, who’d be a hell of a lot less frustrating than d’Arnaud

9:35	Miguel Cabrera: Hello, how much longer is my hall of fame shelf life? Or will I just keep crushing into perpetuity?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I’m increasingly convinced you’re just going to be able to hit well forever

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: The issue with Cabrera will probably be injuries forcing him to the sidelines — so his playing time might ultimately shrink, but I think he’s probably got another five or six years of quality offense

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Cabrera is the perfect hitter. He hasn’t slugged under .500 since he was a rookie. He slugged .468, and he was 20 years old

9:37	mtsw: If the White Sox fall further out of contention should they look at selling some pieces? Or is this a team who’s mortgaged its future enough they’re pot committed at this point (similar to DC’s argument about the Padres last year?)

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: They’d have to really plummet, and even then, they’d probably decide to just try again in 2017. They’re still not going to consider moving the core pieces, and while they might try to dump Shields or something, I don’t see an impactful selling process

9:38	Jack: If the Marlins fall out of it next month, do you see them selling Fernandez? In a market light on pitching, the Marlins could seriously cash in.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Fernandez seems like the sort of player who would command a return package that’s easier to give up in the offseason. That package probably draws from a big-league roster, and teams are reluctant to do that in July

9:39	A friend : Do you see Greg Bird taking over 1b role for the Yankees next year and lasting in that role for years to come?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: He’s got the best chance provided his body lets him do it

9:39	JalapEno: Thank you for chatting with us, Jeff! What kind of production can be expected from Jose Reyes? Aren’t the Mets crazy to think this is a good idea?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’re crazy and they probably figure a return might help energize him. But I wouldn’t personally want anything to do with him. Maybe that’s just my own ethics

9:40	A friend : Zych if healthy closes over Diaz in ’17 ?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: To my knowledge Zych isn’t even throwing

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: So let’s say no, I don’t think any of these assumptions is happening

9:41	Guest: Does your gf read your articles on here?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I think she tried once and resolved not to bother doing it again

9:43	Josh: Hey Jeff, I know you’re not big on lineup construction, but at what point do the Cubs have to remove Heyward from the 2 hole? He has to be costing them runs given his 82 wRC+ and all of the other options they have.

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: I could see how maybe it would make sense to swap Heyward and Zobrist, but, a few things: the Cubs aren’t hurting for success at the moment, the Cubs still believe in Heyward’s projections, and over the past month or so Heyward has been a pretty decent hitter. So I don’t think there’s a real sense of urgency

9:44	Guest: do you do any investing?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:44	mtsw: How much abuse is Dave getting on twitter right now for this Brexit thing?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Turns out “voters” is just another word for “internet commenters”

9:45	Jerry DiPoto: How are the Mariners one game under .500 when they are 2nd in the AL in runs scored and ERA. This can’t last right? 9 straight one run losses, think this evens out?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Of late they’ve gotten horribly unlucky, and to make matters worse the Rangers have overall been fortunate. But that’s not to say the Mariners don’t still have problems. The bullpen isn’t exactly reliable and the rotation, health-wise, is falling apart

9:46	Zorak: Why can’t I shake the feeling that the Mets are gonna sign Reyes because he’ll make the minimum and then use that as an excuse not to pay for Gourriel or trade for anybody on a decent sized contract?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Reyes is better than Gurriel

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I get the cynicism but remember that they were right on Carlos Gomez and they nailed the Yoenis Cespedes situation

9:48	mtsw: Something seriously wrong with Zach Britton? Very shaky last three outings (looked even worse than the results). Orioles twitter is convinced he needs Tommy John. Talk me off the ledge here.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really see anything to worry about

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: His fastball is fine. His release points are fine. He frequently pitches a little below the zone so if teams are able to keep themselves from swinging, he will fall behind in counts

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Four-game stretch last June where Britton faced 17 batters, walking four without striking out any. Couldn’t throw first-pitch strikes. He was fine

9:51	Phil: How are the fangraphs’ staff taking the news that Dave Cameron has resigned?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Day off

9:51	glenn: Do you think the Yankees accept they are not a contender this year and trade Miller, Chapman, Beltran, etc and what would be the return ?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think we’ll ultimately get to that point

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’ll be close enough they won’t have the intestinal fortitude to throw in the towel

9:53	Joe: ESPN posted an article earlier this week saying the White Sox should trade Sale. I agreed with Dave when he said that last year but after the big investments they have made into winning this year is it really in their best interest to give up on this season?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Like with Jose Fernandez, I don’t think that level of player is even possible to move midseason anymore

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: There’s no way the Sox wouldn’t want big-league pieces back, and no contender wants to give those up in July

9:54	d’ohh: Walk-off walks. Walk-off wild pitches. Runner at third with no outs fails. What a road trip! Go Mariners!

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll personally always remember the walk-off strikeout from a few years ago. That one was perfect

9:54	Josh: Where do you see Miguel Sano defensively in the long run? He just doesn’t seem like he has a future anywhere except possibly 1B.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: First base seems all but inevitable but given his arm I could see the Twins stubbornly sticking with third base for a while

9:56	Caveman Jones: Thoughts on Eduardo Rodriguez?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: His fastball has been getting better so there’s less there to worry about. I don’t think he’s a guy you rely on, but he’s a big-league starter

9:58	Timothy: T or F Jeff Sullivan among the FG writers Jeff Sullivan looks the best with his shirt off. (Zym punted this question)

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Summer backpacking always gives me an embarrassing tan

9:59	bolton: Teheran and the viz…. will they net benintindi, moncoda, or Espinoza