Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/25/13

June 25, 2013

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys, late as usual, this time for traveling reasons. We’ll get started as soon as I put in my contacts!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: They are in another room!

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: All right, no better time than the present for sports.

9:07	Comment From BILL do you see Bruce Rondon getting chance to close in Detroit this year?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Not for very long

9:07	Comment From AJT A bit late, so right on time!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: You figured it out!

9:07	Comment From Bill Brasky Better ROS Kluber or Cashner?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Kluber

9:08

Comment From mix
Thanks for hosting another chat. I have Jon Lester stashed on my bench right now, but it feels like his early season success is evaporating before my eyes. Where do you see him ROS? Because I’ll need to drop somebody because of the DL list (one of Lester, Gerrit Cole, Ryan Dempster, Tim Hudson or Brandon Beachy.) Thanks.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: You could afford to drop Lester and it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. He’s not what he was, and he won’t be

9:10	Comment From Conor What should the Braves do with McCann/Gattis when both are healthy? Does one get moved?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Realistically, stop playing Gerald Laird, but no, the Braves aren’t going to deal a productive player when they’re gunning for the playoffs. They’ll just consider this a sort of Gattis break-in period before he plays regularly in 2014 and beyond

9:12	Comment From Nick Who do the Jays send down tomorrow to put Jose Reyes back on the 40 man?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Right now, the Blue Jays have an eight-man bullpen. So the answer should be a mediocre reliever, but there exists the possibility that it’s Kawasaki, just because of his option situation. I’d bet on reliever, because Kawasaki has done too much

9:13

Comment From Harjit
Jeff, hope this finds you well. thanks for doing these chats. My question is about the Giants. Should they re-load? Make a few unpopular trades (perhaps Pence, relievers) keep the core intact and punt the rest of the season to try to get a few guys back in the farm system? Is that crazy?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: That division is entirely too winnable

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: They have a better chance of making the playoffs this year than they do of getting impact talent back in the trades they might make

9:14	Comment From Izzy Is David Wright the favorite to lead the National League in WAR this year? If not, where would he rank and who do you prefer?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s Wright, but only because Tulowitzki is out for a number of weeks with his rib injury. At full health, I’d rather have Tulo

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Tulo is amazing, is the point

9:16	Comment From Tinman Has Rendon played well enough to keep his spot when Espinosa is back?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, that’s my read, especially with Espinosa sucking in his rehab

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Rendon might sacrifice a few games here and there but he should be the primary option

9:18	Comment From AJT What moves, if any, do you think the Pirates make at the ASB? Will they be able to sustain enough to pull off a wild card berth at least?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you’re going to see the Pirates swing a blockbuster, as they seem like a team that’s going to add role players if they add anything at all. But right now the Pirates have a six-game lead in the wild-card race, tied with the Reds. The closest teams are the Padres, the banged-up Rockies, and the banged-up Giants. The Pirates are in a hell of a position right now and it would be a complete surprise if they collapsed again

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: even if it wouldn’t be that surprising, since Pirates

9:20	Comment From Greg Think the Giants would trade Kyle Crick if it lands them a front of the rotation starter like Garza?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Giants are going to trade another important pitching prospect for another rental, especially in a year with so many questions

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: The Giants need more starting pitcher depth in the system, not less

9:23	Comment From Nick What is up with Brett Cecil this year?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Relieving isn’t easy, but it’s relatively easy

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Velocity up and no more changeups. It agrees with Cecil, as it agrees with many

9:24	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her Thoughts on Kyle Gibson? How do you think he’ll turn out ROS?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I think he could be the best starter on the team, and mostly just decent

9:25	Comment From Chris Do you think the Mariners will and should sign Morales?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’ll get done, but I think they’re in an advantageous position if that’s something they want to do

9:25	Comment From Sam Who should the Pirates target for RF, assuming they don’t want to sell the farm for Stanton?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: A guy like Schierholtz is a good idea, even if that entirely fails to so much as raise one of your eyebrows

9:27	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her How do you feel about Chris Tillman ROS? Career?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like pretty soon people are going to stop expecting that breakthrough, and they’ll accept him as the half-decent starter that he is

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: But boy, every few starts or so, he’ll mix in a gem that makes people wonder

9:28	Comment From mix Brian McCann vs. Victor Martinez ROS? I’m not even sure if I want to keep V Mart as a back-up, but the best on waivers is Russel Martin and most teams in my league aren’t going to want to trade their catchers. Thanks.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: This is a less interesting question than I wanted it to be, but, McCann

9:29	Comment From Bobo What do you project for Zunino ROS?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Powerful mediocrity

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Man, so many questions in the queue about ROS projections. We have ROS projections on the site and they’re smarter than I am.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Seriously, you can feel free to ask authors whatever you like, but the ZiPS and Steamer numbers are going to be at least just as good and they’re readily accessible for everybody.

9:30	Comment From AJT How well can you see without your contacts? Wouldn’t you normally always have them in?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like to sleep in them and now this is a question I have answered in a public live baseball chat

9:30	Comment From Maxamuz This may brighten up your day after misplacing your contacts in the other room.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Holy hell I didn’t know we could have attachments!

9:31	Comment From Bubba Gump Is it time to start worrying about Verlander and his velo loss?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: 2012: 2.94 FIP, 3.31 xFIP 2013: 2.86 FIP, 3.29 xFIP There might be something going on, but I’ll worry more when it’s more evident in the results that he’s generating

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: It’s interesting that his BABIP is so elevated after a career of suppression, but it’s still only June and he’s still pitching in front of the Tigers’ team defense

9:32	Comment From Kate Why not just wear glasses?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I feel a lot more alert in contacts which you can obviously glean from the current pace of this chat

9:32	Comment From Shark Mapiro How worried should the Indians be about Pestano’s velocity? Is he still hurt? Did the WBC ruin him?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: His velocity seems to be more or less fine?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a drop between 2012-2013, but there was a bigger drop between 2011-2012 and Pestano was aces

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Way too easy to pin this on the WBC. Probably a lot smarter to pin it on sample sizes and the vagaries of relieving

9:35

Comment From senorpogo
Jeff- I don’t exactly have the time to keep up on all the most recent developments and discoveries in baseball number crunching. Where does pitch framing currently stand? Is it still seen as a major influence on run prevention? Or has the sabermetric community backed off on those original numbers some what?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: It’s still popular — it’s just becoming more widely understood and more widely taken for granted. It does seem to be an occasionally major influence, even if that’s just for a handful of guys. There’s a certain air of skepticism regarding the extremes, and I think the next step is going to be figuring out the pitcher contribution to the catching numbers. Because it can’t all be up to the catcher

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I think it gets so much attention not because it’s a huge part of winning and losing, but because it’s so new a field. So people just want to go exploring while there aren’t any trails

9:37	Comment From Mike Puig’s homer vs Bumgarner…

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t seen it yet, was traveling

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Now I feel bad for accepting that comment from the queue

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Now I feel like I have to watch the home run so brb

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: God, he even hits them by accident.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: The opposite-field power is really going to help him avoid the major, crippling regression one might expect from a guy so aggressive

9:39	Comment From zack The Russell Martin signing: Most underrated move of the offseason?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Way up there, if not atop. Stupid Yankees! Unthinkably stupid Yankees!

9:40	Comment From Steve Z Jeff Locke — #3?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Better as a #4 but the labels don’t really matter

9:40	Comment From Daniel Does “ROS” stand for “Rest of Season?” Somehow I missed the memo.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah

9:41	Comment From AJT What do you expect from Jay Bruce ROS?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: See this is what I was talking about. I think Bruce will finish with a wRC+ around 120 or so, like he’s been doing forever

9:42	Comment From sf Your thoughts on the addition of the second wild card and it stagnating the trade market?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I like having so many teams considering themselves to be in contention

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: And while it can be fun to follow trades and trade rumors, they don’t actually make that much of a difference most of the time so whatever

9:43	Comment From gareth Starlin castro. Josh Hamilton has got the press for stinking up the joint but castro has to be given his props for being a huge dissapointment also, right?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Used to be people worried that Castro wasn’t getting better. Now he’s gotten worse. This is a really dangerous career path that he’s on

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Eight-year contract!

9:45	Comment From Chicago Mark Did you read the piece on dropping Justin Morneau? What happened. He said this was the first off season since the concussion he was able to work out physically. And yet….regression from 2012.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Players always have lots of reasons to believe they’ll bounce back from things. They don’t voice the reasons to believe they might not. That’s simplified, but it’s not like Morneau looked like a shoo-in, and now he’s a half-decent 32-year-old first baseman with an injury history.

9:47	Comment From Pat Reasonable return for Cliff Lee at trade deadline?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you’re going to see it happen, but the return would be strongly related to the amount of salary picked up by the Phillies

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not unloading that contract and getting a treasure chest of young talent

9:48	Comment From zack How many more big years does Yadier Molina need to get serious HOF consideration?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: He’s going to want to be good/great into his mid-30s, but he’s going to get a lot of credit for probably being the best actual catcher of his generation

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: An MVP wouldn’t hurt

9:50	Comment From gareth Do you see the indians adding a loshe, nolasco, gallardo or garza to make a push for a wild card slot?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: At this point I’d expect the Indians to be pretty quiet because I don’t think a big upgrade is out there that they’re going to want to pay for

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: They did their big restructuring over the winter

9:52	Comment From Kris Will Middlebrooks going to get sent down? Should he be?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I’d do it, but I don’t know what’s specifically the matter with him. So I can’t speak to how much he’d stand to gain from Triple-A. But he’s sure as hell not helping at all in the majors, soooo

9:53	Comment From Robert Just as a fun guess, where do you think Trout ends up roughly at the end of his career in terms of WAR?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Well let’s see. He’s coming up on 22, right, and he’s already at 15 career WAR

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to say somewhere around 80 or so, but there’s obviously the potential there for him to blow that projection away

9:54	Comment From Conor I traded Puig for Braun a week ago… Uh Oh?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Uh oh

9:55	Comment From David Who do you feel better about for the second half…Beachey or Pineda?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Just on the nature of the injuries, Beachy, since that was elbow instead of shoulder, but Pineda seems to be ahead in his rehab so he could easily end up with the better 2013 numbers

9:55	Comment From Joe Does Peavy get traded even if he only gets a start or two in before the deadline to prove that hes healthy?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: There’s so little out there, realistically, that yeah, I think he could get moved based on any assurance that he’s okay. Remember that he’s been traded before while he was hurt

9:56	Comment From Henry Hey Jeff, do you see Jesse Crain being moved to a contender to close, and if so, which team?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s going to close, but I think he’s going t oend up in an important role

9:57	Comment From Joe What’s Zoilo’s deal?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball’s fifth Zoilo. He’s not worth your interest, outside of that

9:57	Comment From gareth Rendon.Espinosa. puig. Carl crawford. How do you see this working out? Do those teams follow han solos advice and let the roookies win?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Rendon mostly plays over Espinosa, Espinosa serves as depth, Dodgers move Andre Ethier to somebody stupid

9:58	Comment From _David_ Regarding Felix and his meltdown games this year and last, might lower velocity lower the floor on disaster potential when whatever else goes wrong?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: The velocity has actually been picking up

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: And though that might be a fine theory, Felix has had more than a few meltdown games over the course of his career