Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/30/17
| 9:09 |
: Hello friends
|
| 9:09 |
: Welcome to Friday baseball chat
|
| 9:09 |
: Hello, friend!
|
| 9:09 |
: Hello friend
|
| 9:09 |
: I’ve missed you
|
| 9:09 |
: Approximately what % of Wins are attributed to Starting Pitchers? Any idea?
|
| 9:09 |
: A very precise idea!
|
| 9:10 |
: This year, there have been 1184 wins, 799 of which have gone to starters. So that’s 67.5%
|
| 9:10 |
: Two decades ago, the rate was 69.9%
|
| 9:11 |
: Not actually that much of a drop, but I’m sure it gets more and more dramatic the further back you go, obviously
|
| 9:11 |
: It feels like Tyler Flowers morphed into an elite pitch framer in the last couple of years and no one really noticed. How did this happen?
|
| 9:12 |
: According to the data at Baseball Prospectus, Flowers has actually always been a really good pitch-framer. Maybe now it’s just that more people are recognizing him for it
|
| 9:13 |
: The *real* dramatic shift has been as a hitter. Flowers has cut wayyyyyyy down on his strikeouts and pop-ups. He’s a good hitter now! It’s incredible. And I’d be writing about him, but I know that Ben Lindbergh is already in the process of writing about him, so I don’t want to step on toes
|
| 9:13 |
: Plus Ben is just going to be more thorough than I would’ve been anyway
|
| 9:14 |
: In 2014, Flowers struck out or popped up in 38% of his plate appearances. This year he’s at 21%.
|
| 9:15 |
: I’m getting laid off from my day job today (I’ve known in advance for months, and I’m getting a nice severance). Do you have any life advice to share? I’m thinking about playing some pickup baseball today, too.
|
| 9:15 |
: An opportunity like this is exceedingly rare. Go do at least one of the things you’ve been putting off for some time. One of the big things, I mean, one of the things you always said you didn’t have time for
|
| 9:16 |
: If you’re a traveler, travel. If you’re a hiker, hike. If you’re a hobbyist, hobby. Immerse yourself in something. You will rarely have the chance to be so unencumbered
|
| 9:17 |
: The Red Sox can’t call up Rusney Castillo or eat any salary of his in a trade without going over the misery . However he is hitting very well in AAA.
|
| 9:17 |
: In fairness, he’s not hitting *that* well in Triple-A
|
| 9:18 |
: But, yes, he is a little bit trapped. It’s a shitty circumstance
|
| 9:18 |
: Is Logan Morrison getting lucky or unlucky, or is this about what we should expect from his batted balls? On the lucky side is a good but not outrageous 24.4% HR/FB rate. But on the unlucky side, despite 43.1%/42.6% Med/Hard contact, he’s running a .257 BABIP. He’s underperforming his xwOBA by a bit under .01 but I don’t have a great sense of that metric yet.
|
| 9:19 |
: As a pull hitter who now puts everything in the air, Morrison is never going to run a normal-looking BABIP. He’s a slow, fly-ball-hitting lefty
|
| 9:20 |
: That’s the profile of most of the xwOBA underachievers
|
| 9:20 |
: But the power is legitimate. I don’t know if Morrison is really a 140 wRC+ type, but 120-130 isn’t unreasonable
|
| 9:20 |
: Turns out, just like the Blue Jays with Justin Smoak, the Rays saw something here
|
| 9:21 |
: Or they got lucky. Who knows!
|
| 9:22 |
: Is Yunel Escobar the dumbest MLB player? His antics last night keep supporting this.
|
| 9:22 |
: I’m not going to say he’s the dumbest, but he’s probably in the lower quartile
|
| 9:23 |
: It wasn’t even that long ago that Escobar was considered a toxic personality. It’s remarkable he still has a job in the first place
|
| 9:23 |
: Best quote, from this http://www.ocregister.com/2017/06/29/benches-clear-in-dodgers-angels-g…
|
| 9:23 |
: “I think that’s stupid, man,” Jansen said. “Nobody’s going to fight. Just the stupidity of major leagues, when it goes to a brawl like this. I wish this could be over with. If you want to go 1-on-1, go 1-on-1. You can meet somewhere else. Nobody’s going to fight.”
|
| 9:23 |
: Every time I see PST I think its a secret (i.e. Jeff Sullivan chat starts at 9 am pssst). I’m just lucky to be one of those who were on the invite
|
| 9:24 |
: And then the damn front page runs that banner up top that spoils the surprise
|
| 9:24 |
: This is like a FanGraphs speakeasy
|
| 9:24 |
: Jeff: I’ve read rumors that Justin Bour might get traded to the Yankees. I can’t seem to confirm that anywhere. What have you heard?
|
| 9:25 |
: I haven’t *heard* anything specific. It makes all the sense in the world that Bour would be on their radar, as a good lefty-hitting 1B on a go-nowhere team. I don’t know why the Marlins would be in a hurry to move him, though, since he’s cheap and fine and under control for a while
|
| 9:26 |
: The Yankees should just trade for Duda and be done with it
|
| 9:26 |
: I bet they could get Tommy Joseph for pretty cheap, but Duda’s a better fit
|
| 9:27 |
: How were so many people so wrong about the Giants?
|
| 9:28 |
: I don’t really know what we’re supposed to learn, here. Crawford forgot how to hit, Pence forgot how to hit, and Bumgarner forgot how to practice responsible dirt-biking safety habits
|
| 9:29 |
: Easy to see how this could snowball. I still don’t think they’re close to being one of the worst teams around, but it’s been an absolutely miserable half-year
|
| 9:31 |
: Fangraphs has the Brewers at 10.4% to make the playoffs. How much lower is that actually, now that ChACE Anderson is hurt?
|
| 9:31 |
: In theory his injury is folded into that calculation since the depth charts have been updated since
|
| 9:32 |
: Now, we can’t actually be sure how much time he’ll miss, and we don’t actually know if the projections have accurately captured Anderson’s improvement. But, hey, Kris Bryant is kind of hurt, too. Partial negation
|
| 9:32 |
: I’ve never been more upset during a sporting event than I was while watching the Yankee game last night. That poor guy ):
|
| 9:32 |
: Thank goodness his family wasn’t there
|
| 9:32 |
: I think? Maybe I’m completely wrong, but that seems like a good thing
|
| 9:33 |
: Best I can say is, Fowler will be back. But that’s as brutal a debut as I’ve heard about
|
| 9:33 |
: What are the Pirates going to do with McCutchen? Trade him at the deadline?
|
| 9:33 |
: Probably yes
|
| 9:34 |
: If they catch enough fire to get closer to the division, they can hold, but the smart play right now is to deal McCutchen while his stock has rebounded
|
| 9:34 |
: Still a little early, but how do you evaluate Rick Hahn’s patience?
|
| 9:35 |
: It’s really difficult to execute any kind of maneuver of significance pre-draft. Teams just aren’t paying enough attention to the market yet. Now is the time for Hahn to act aggressively. I would’ve liked to see a Quintana move last winter, instead of now, but he’s done okay in my book
|
| 9:35 |
: are advanced pitching stats adjusted for NL /AL differences?
|
| 9:35 |
: WAR includes some form of a league adjustment, but the other stuff doesn’t
|
| 9:35 |
: Now that Cutch is back, should the Pirates trade him in a month? If so, what could a return look? Two top 100 prospects?
|
| 9:36 |
: He’s still been a 2.5 win player or so over the past year and a half
|
| 9:36 |
: Defense blows, and you can’t dismiss his earlier struggles because of one hot month
|
| 9:37 |
: I’d think one top-100 prospect and another two pieces of modest note. Maybe one top-100 prospect, a Cistulli guy, and a low-level flier
|
| 9:37 |
: Perhaps they work it like the Melancon move and try to get a big-league reliever
|
| 9:38 |
: What’s the difference between a player DFA’d, outrighted, and optioned?
|
| 9:39 |
: There are further details, but generally you’ll see a player outrighted to the minors off the 40-man when the player has been DFA’d and no one has worked out a trade or claim
|
| 9:39 |
: So then the player stays with the organization that DFA’d him, but he no longer counts against the 40-man limit as soon as the DFA is announced
|
| 9:40 |
: Options are complicated, but, the typical young player has three years in which he can be freely shuttled back and forth between the majors and the minors
|
| 9:40 |
: Such a player is never exposed to a claim by another organization
|
| 9:41 |
: The Red Sox can’t call up Rusney Castillo or eat any of his salary without going over the luxury tax. However he is playing well in AAA. Any way they can move him without having to give up a prospect?
|
| 9:41 |
: Nothing I can think of
|
| 9:41 |
: They can just pay the damn tax
|
| 9:43 |
: It’s not like anyone is going to willingly relieve them of the Pablo Sandoval salary burden
|
| 9:44 |
: Who is the odd man out in STL when Fowler returns?
|
| 9:45 |
: I don’t see why it shouldn’t still be Grichuk
|
| 9:46 |
: Who you taking in the AL MVP race? Judge or the field?
|
| 9:46 |
: Right now I think it’s a clear, obvious Judge vote. The closest contender is Chris Sale but pitchers always have more trouble summoning enough MVP support
|
| 9:46 |
: Jeff: now that the Orioles have won four of six, do you think they’ll be buyers instead of sellers? I hope they don’t part with Hays, he’s pounding minor league pitchers, albeit with a poor walk rate.
|
| 9:47 |
: I don’t think the Orioles are going to sell. I think they’ll hold out hope for better luck and health and they’ll make some of those typical, boring Orioles moves. Like, I don’t know how the Orioles don’t have Clayton Richard in their rotation a month from now
|
| 9:48 |
: One of the advantages of having such a terrible pitching staff is that someone who’d be of no use to another contender can be a real improvement
|
| 9:48 |
: Who do you have winning the AL East this year, and who are some players the Yankees and Red Sox could be targeting at the deadline?
|
| 9:49 |
: I don’t have anything shocking to say. I think the Red Sox win by a small margin, and they’ll be looking for a 3B while the Yankees are looking for a 1B
|
| 9:49 |
: What complicates the picture is how so many AL teams are right around the wild-card race. So, like, Mike Moustakas isn’t going anywhere anymore, I bet. Neither is Eric Hosmer
|
| 9:50 |
: Hi Jeff. Suppose the Tigers traded Verlander to the Astros (or any contending team with a SP need). Is there any way to tell if he would have a bounce back similar to Randy Johnson when he was traded from the Mariners to the Astros in 1998 (change of scenery / motivation on a contending team and whatnot)?
|
| 9:51 |
: I’ve always had a little trouble with that narrative — advanced stats show that, even with the Mariners, 1998 Randy Johnson was dominant. His ERA was up due to luck and defense
|
| 9:51 |
: Of course, he was better with Houston, but being in the NL was helpful
|
| 9:52 |
: Plus, Johnson’s ERA got lower from April, to May, to June, to July. So he was trending well at the time
|
| 9:53 |
: Anyway, this isn’t about Randy Johnson!
|
| 9:54 |
: Problem with Verlander is that his indicators are actually much worse. Major decline in strikeouts and walks. Encouragingly, he’s Justin Verlander, with his own experience, and his stuff looks fine. His fastball is strong. I think any team trading for Justin Verlander would expect him to pitch much better in the second half than in the first
|
| 9:54 |
: Thoughts on whether Jose Pirela can stick as an above average regular?
|
| 9:55 |
: I’m still skeptical, but it sure looks like something has changed in 2017, and I’m probably going to write about him in some depth after he accrues a larger sample of data
|
| 9:55 |
: McCutchen to the Dodgers?
|
| 9:55 |
: A definite possibility
|
| 9:57 |
: What do you think of Paulino? The strikeouts and walks have been good, but the results haven’t been great.
|
| 9:58 |
: I’d like to know what changed between Double-A and Triple-A. Paulino used to throw like 68% strikes. Against higher competition, he’s been more around 61-62%, and that’s going to make it tough for him to pitch with any efficiency
|
| 9:58 |
: He doesn’t yet have big-league location skills, but the stuff is legitimate, clearly
|
| 9:58 |
: Keon Broxton’s K% sucks
|
| 9:58 |
: Yes
|
| 9:58 |
: What’s amazing is, over 518 career plate appearances, he has 38% strikeouts and an above-average wRC+
|
| 9:59 |
: The strikeouts will always be there
|
| 10:00 |
: I’m going to the Cards-Nats game tonight and was stoked to watch Trea fly around the bases. No question. Just sad.
|
| 10:00 |
: If it makes you feel any better, the Cardinals have allowed the second-fewest steals in baseball, so Turner probably wasn’t going to run anyway
|
| 10:00 |
: Schoop seems like the Orioles’ most deserving All-Star. how much are you buying his breakout?
|
| 10:01 |
: He’s interesting, because he’s swinging a lot less often than he used to, but I’m not sure he’s *actually* more disciplined. There’s a difference between discipline and patience. I’ve had him on my radar and will probably write him up before too long
|
| 10:01 |
: Feels like an August post if he’s still hitting
|
| 10:02 |
: Going backcountry camping this weekend for the first time solo. Any tips/advice?
|
| 10:03 |
: Nothing aside from have fun and be careful. Don’t let every noise in the dark spook you into thinking something’s going to kill you. I don’t know where you’re going to be, and maybe there will be lots of people around, but when you’re solo, you have to take care to closely evaluate any and every risk. If you get lost or injured, you could be screwed. Do what you can to prevent any physical harm
|
| 10:03 |
: The dodgers have 8 players with 1.8 WAR or greater.
|
| 10:03 |
: Good baseball team
|
| 10:04 |
: What is more valuable to a team like the Rays? The ~$5 million they have in international cap space or selling all of it for ~$20 million in payroll space.
|
| 10:05 |
: The Rays are signing Wander Franco, right?
|
| 10:05 |
: Seems to suggest they’ve decided they like that money more than they like what they could trade it for
|
| 10:06 |
: I think it’d be cool to build a twitterbot that identifies games at higher leverage situations. Do you have any idea how you’d make that?
|
| 10:06 |
: A form of this has existed, albeit not on Twitter https://theringer.com/mlb-tv-game-changer-redzone-4e5d5e81c99c
|
| 10:07 |
: Do you think it’s reasonable to expect Votto’s BABIP to rebound in the second half and put up even better numbers?
|
| 10:07 |
: It kind of already has — his BABIP was truly awful in April, and it’s been well north of .300 ever since
|
| 10:07 |
: Part of the compromise here, I bet, is that he’ll run a lower BABIP in exchange for the reduced strikeouts. But he’s still amazing
|
| 10:08 |
: Any chance Bellinger goes back to AAA this year?
|
| 10:08 |
: lol
|
| 10:09 |
: If the ball is indeed juiced, does that disproportionately impact teams that have built/developed fly ball-centric staffs?
|
| 10:09 |
: Not as much as you’d think. There’s a correlation between GB% and HR/FB%, meaning that the more grounders you get, the more dangerous the fly balls are that you allow
|
| 10:10 |
: So a fly-ball staff would allow more homers, sure, but a ground-ball staff would *also* allow more homers
|
| 10:10 |
: The bigger penalty would be against a team that might have built a contact-oriented staff. That’s a whoopsadoodle
|
| 10:11 |
: This is one of the reasons why teams like the Reds and Twins have felt the worst of the home-run spike
|
| 10:12 |
: Who is the better offensive player in 2017 – Eric Thames or Domingo Santana?
|
| 10:12 |
: Thames, I think, but it’s close. Santana is good
|
| 10:14 |
: Were the Yankees just auditioning Andujar for a Quintana trade?
|
| 10:14 |
: I’m not convinced that kind of thing ever actually happens
|
| 10:14 |
: How do you figure Smyly’s upcoming surgery impacts the Mariners deadline?
|
| 10:15 |
: I’m sure they’ve kind of been bracing themselves against this possibility for a while. So now they’re slightly more likely to make a move for a SP but it’s not like they have many valuable chips to begin with
|
| 10:16 |
: Matz has a 4.3% SwStr through his first 4 starts this season. He’s stopped throwing the Warthen slider and lost around a tick off his fastball. Can he still be an above average pitcher?
|
| 10:16 |
: Staying away from the slider is intentional. A few starts back he missed bats against the Dodgers, so the ability is still in there. The contact rate right now is way too high but give him another month or two to see where he’s at
|
| 10:17 |
: Fangraphs ranks players by highest trade value every year. What player has the lowest value on their contract?
|
| 10:17 |
: Feels like it’s Albert Pujols
|
| 10:18 |
: Something like $127 million left on his deal and he’s a replacement-level player
|
| 10:18 |
: Is Adam Duvall for real? Or do you expect a power drought coming second half?
|
| 10:18 |
: I think this is basically what he is. His wRC+ is a little too high, but he’s an above-average slugger
|
| 10:19 |
: The Ms probably won’t trade James Paxton. But should they? It would be selling pretty high, and they have a guy like Andrew Moore who could probably give them 75% of the production. I know their sp depth has been tested, but a shiny new prospect feels like it could be worth the risk.
|
| 10:19 |
: M’s won’t be prepared to sell if they sit where they are, and right now isn’t the best time to move Paxton anyway given his recent DL stint and slump
|
| 10:20 |
: But this is a conversation that has taken place within the organization several times, I’m sure. And if the team bottoms out in the following month, there’s a chance. But I think it’s more likely Paxton inks an extension to stay
|
| 10:20 |
: next time you’re hiking with Rob Manfred can you please insist on a rule change mandating at least one day game everyday? Maybe dangle him over a volcano
|
| 10:20 |
: Most volcanoes don’t have lava lakes. In fact, only like four volcanoes in the world have lava lakes. So dangling him over a volcano would be the same as just dangling him over rocks, which you could do anywhere
|
| 10:21 |
: Has AJ Reed fallen out of favor with the Astros? And is he a guy a team would DJ for in return for a SP?
|
| 10:21 |
: He’s not doing anything in Triple-A. Value way down
|
| 10:22 |
: Did the Nats just enter the Cozart sweepstakes? Or is their place in the division secure enough that they can punt on SS until Turner is back?
|
| 10:22 |
: Probably the latter. They’ll be focused almost exclusively on bullpen help
|
| 10:22 |
: Does anyone swing at the first pitch less than Chase Utley?
|
| 10:23 |
: Lots of people
|
| 10:23 |
: Utley swings at the first pitch 19% of the time. Joe Mauer’s at 7.5%
|
| 10:23 |
: Did You Know? The Nats bullpen SUUUUUUUUUCKS.
|
| 10:23 |
: And still easily in first place. It’s amazing. What a shitty division
|
| 10:23 |
: If the Reds move Iglesias this summer, do you think Ariel Hernandez can fill the void that would create?
|
| 10:23 |
: I like Hernandez a lot, but I don’t know why the Reds would move Iglesias when he’s one of the only guys they have
|
| 10:25 |
: With Turner down, do the Nats become a player for Lowrie (thinking as part of a package deal for A’s reliever(s) as well)? Drew has been producing this year and last, but doesn’t hit LHP, and a solid bat switch-hitting bat (i.e., not Wilmer Difo) to spell him at SS – along with off days for Murphy and Rendon – seems like an obvious play.
|
| 10:25 |
: Just doesn’t seem like there are enough ABs for it to be worth it. Other teams have a more desperate need for someone like Lowrie than the Nationals do
|
| 10:27 |
: Which Braves Prospect, that has not yet made a MLB debut yet, are you most looking forward to seeing this season in the majors?
|
| 10:27 |
: I guess it’s Albies by default
|
| 10:28 |
: Not so much that captures my particular interest at the moment
|
| 10:28 |
: Honestly I’m most interested in just seeing Freeman at third base. That makes him kind of a prospect, right
|
| 10:29 |
: Whose defense should the Dodgers prefer at SS: Taylor or Hernandez?
|
| 10:29 |
: Taylor is an actual shortstop. So I’d say him
|
| 10:30 |
: I am truly hoping that Conforto is named the Mets’ all-star because I think that will convince Terry Collins to put his ALL STAR in the line-up every day. But with his cold streak/injuries in June, I think the Mets’ all star will be Jay Bruce and his good traditional stats.
|
| 10:30 |
: Conforto plays a lot
|
| 10:30 |
: When he’s not hurt, he’s almost always in the lineup
|
| 10:30 |
: Bruce will go away soon anyway
|
| 10:31 |
: Last night, Harold was arguing that the pitcher win is a good stat because the team needs to win the game. I don’t think he can conceptually comprehend the fact that the argument is that a pitcher win is an arbitrary definition which doesn’t describe ability. You can use the word in it’s own definition.
|
| 10:31 |
: I can’t imagine anything I’m less interested in these days than a conversation about pitcher wins. The sport moved on years ago. It’s irrelevant
|
| 10:31 |
: Life advice only using 2 words? Besides “go/get outside/outdoors”.
|
| 10:32 |
: Be kind
|
| 10:32 |
: Do you believe in Trevor Cahill upon his return?
|
| 10:32 |
: I believe in the healthy Trevor Cahill, but it’s fine to be nervous about anyone coming back from a shoulder problem
|
| 10:32 |
: I’ve always wondered, who benefits more from seeing the same hitter/pitcher more frequently throughout a season, the pitcher or the hitter?
|
| 10:33 |
: I haven’t seen any compelling evidence that there’s any real benefit for anyone to unfamiliarity. But if I had to guess, there would be a slight advantage for the hitter, here, because pitchers generally don’t learn new tricks as a season goes on
|
| 10:34 |
: Is Nick Markakis a HOF’er?
|
| 10:34 |
: Yes
|
| 10:35 |
: I’ve gone from scorching lava hot to glacially cold. K% up from 22 to 37, Pull% down 27%, Hard% down 14%. What’s going on with me?
|
| 10:36 |
: No hitter in baseball has been less valuable against fastballs in June than Eric Thames
|
| 10:36 |
: I can’t tell if this is something pitchers have figured out, or if Thames is still just kind of out of whack from being sick and having a tight hamstring. But right now he’s got a clear vulnerability and pitchers are attacking it
|
| 10:37 |
: Which sub 500 NL team do you think has the best chance of emerging and challenging for the second wild card?
|
| 10:37 |
: None of them have a great chance, but I guess my answer would be the Braves, since they could do something silly like trade for Chris Archer
|
| 10:38 |
: Should the Jays blow the team up this year and start the rebuild or wait until next year?
|
| 10:38 |
: For now, still close enough this year to just stay together
|
| 10:38 |
: Is Anthony Rendon better than Bryce Harper?
|
| 10:39 |
: Right now, probably yes. Over the next three or five years, no
|
| 10:39 |
: I’m interested to see which pitchers have had the best/worst luck so far in 2017. Is there anyway I can sort leaderboards by xFIP – ERA?
|
| 10:39 |
: The leaderboards include ERA – FIP, but if you want xFIP instead you’ll have to do it by hand. But that’s easy
|
| 10:40 |
: Who do you trust more to stick in the rotation, Newcomb or Folty?
|
| 10:40 |
: Foltynewicz, just because he has more experience and Newcomb is easier to bounce back to the minors. But that doesn’t mean I think Foltynewicz is actually the better pitcher
|
| 10:40 |
: Kevin Gausman seems like exactly the type of SP Cubs like to target- high upside, recent struggles, sticker price that is below that of elite arms on the market. Can you see BAL moving him and would he be the type of upgrade the Cubs need?
|
| 10:41 |
: I don’t see the Orioles motivated to move a starter right now
|
| 10:42 |
: I wonder if the Cubs might lurk around and play for Buck Farmer or Jesse Hahn
|
| 10:43 |
: How many games up on the Cubs do the Brewers have to be at the deadline to buy?
|
| 10:43 |
: It’s helped to have the Rockies slipping — opens up the possibility of a wild-card berth. The Brewers won’t make a big splash almost no matter what, but I can easily see them adding second- or third-tier rotation and bullpen help
|
| 10:44 |
: Do my Mets have any hope of making the postseason? Rockies are falling apart and the NL central is under performing.
|
| 10:44 |
: Odds are slim, but existent. Helps that the NL East is terrible
|
| 10:44 |
: Alex Avila’s batted ball stats this year are bonkers. Throw in his consistently elite walk rate, and is it possible he’s somehow the best left-handed hitter in the AL today? Seems like a intriguing under the radar deadline pickup for somebody that can free up steady C/DH/1B ABs against RHP.
|
| 10:44 |
: Cubs are interested, which is highly unsurprising
|
| 10:45 |
: Avila strikes out a bunch and his BABIP is over .400, so, yeah. But he’s legitimately improved and he’s going to get dealt to a contender
|
| 10:45 |
: O-Swing% of 14%. 14%!
|
| 10:45 |
: Today is Trea Turner’s birthday.
|
| 10:45 |
: Better than yesterday
|
| 10:46 |
: If the Rays eventually have Hechavarria, Beckham, Duffy and Miller all healthy at some point this year, how do they manage the middle of their infield?
|
| 10:46 |
: They’re proceeding as if they don’t expect that to ever be the case
|
| 10:46 |
: Duffy, last I heard, is in a holding pattern
|
| 10:46 |
: Could just dump Hechavarria if his numbers don’t improve. He was already a possible non-tender candidate
|
| 10:47 |
: Was Ichiro Suzuki about as good as it’s possible for a player to be while having 30 power?
|
| 10:47 |
: Ichiro or Tony Gwynn, yeah
|
| 10:47 |
: is madmax better than me =/?
|
| 10:47 |
: No
|
| 10:49 |
: If you had to pick right now, who would you expect to be the AL WC teams?
|
| 10:49 |
: Currently leaning Yankees/Mariners but that second one is in flux
|
| 10:49 |
: The highest BABIP ever in this yankee stadium is .387. With Judges unusual .400+ BABIP and his large K rate, is he due to cool down?
|
| 10:49 |
: He can’t and won’t sustain a sky-high BABIP, but he also hits relatively few balls in play, so it’s of lesser importance for him
|
| 10:49 |
: The Dodgers have been reluctant to move top prospects at the deadline in the Friedman/Zaidi era. Do you think that changes this year, or do you expect more of the same?
|
| 10:49 |
: More of the same. It works
|
| 10:50 |
: Mountains or valleys?
|
| 10:50 |
: Mountains
|
| 10:50 |
: Do you think Kenta Maeda is in the rotation to stay ROS? Or will they continue to use him in a flexible bullpen/starter role?
|
| 10:50 |
: The latter. They’ll keep moving people around in an effort to keep different arms fresh
|
| 10:51 |
: Listened to the podcast yesterday afternoon and was slightly calmed about the Nats pen; game happened and now as a reactionary I am decidedly not. Is there any more urgency to get someone with the Trea injury etc or should the Nats still be totally unconcerned until closer to the deadline?
|
| 10:51 |
: They’re up 9.5 games on the competition that matters most, so there’s no urgency to make the team a million times better. But they will absolutely get one reliever, probably two, and very possibly three
|
| 10:52 |
: It would make me laugh if the Nats just called up the White Sox and traded for Robertson, Kahnle, and Swarzak at the same time
|
| 10:53 |
: Should the Dodgers be worried about Verdugo & Calhoun getting bored of being stuck in AAA? They clearly do not want to use one of their options this year so should they be a actively looking to trade them?
|
| 10:53 |
: They’ll be open to trading them, given the roster logjam, but there’s no real harm keeping prospects in Triple-A for a full season. The players aren’t entitled to the big leagues, given their experience
|
| 10:54 |
: What do you think of Wil Myers this year? Is it just an extended slump or is this just who he actually is.
|
| 10:54 |
: Just to be clear, Wil Myers has a 118 wRC+. Last year, he had a 115 wRC+
|
| 10:54 |
: He even has a 134 wRC+ in June, so he’s not slumping
|
| 10:57 |
: Mike Fiers hasn’t given up a HR in 6 games (37 innings), which started roughly around the time he talked with Lance McCullers Jr. about his curveball. McCullers is the new Ray Searage confirmed?
|
| 10:57 |
: On the one hand, I’m naturally skeptical of anything having to do with improved home-run suppression. It’s almost always pure bunk. On the other hand, at least Fiers takes it to the extreme!
|
| 10:59 |
: 5 machines can make 5 shirts in 5 minutes. how long does it take 100 machines to make 100 shirts?
|
| 10:59 |
: 5 minutes!
|
| 10:59 |
: Do you believe that the projections react too slowly to changes? E.g. the Dbacks are projected for .508 RoS but all of their win orders (1st/2nd/3rd) have them as a ~.600 team to date
|
| 10:59 |
: I’ve written about this before. Even well into a regular season, the projections are still better at seeing the rest of the year than the standings are
|
| 11:00 |
: It’s not that the actual performance is irrelevant, and of course there are times when the projections are too slow to react. Like, Archie Bradley is just a different player now. But mostly, the projections are better than one’s intuition
|
| 11:00 |
: I know that’s not very fun. On the other hand, maybe it’s incredibly fun!
|
| 11:01 |
: May I ask how to interpret the vertical drop numbers in pitchFX when it as it pertains to the batters?
|
| 11:01 |
: Doesn’t really mean anything. Just reflects the movement of the pitches the batters have seen
|
| 11:01 |
: With smaller FA deals being successful like Hill to Oakland, Fowler to Cubs, Holliday to NY, etc. and bigger deals like Zimmermmann to Detroit, Chris Davis, Ellsbury, Heyward not looking great… are we going to a see a change in preferred targets? How does this affect the mega FA class?
|
| 11:02 |
: Well, there hasn’t been much in the way of FA mega-talent lately, anyway. That’s going to change. And while teams are disinclined to give players big huge honking mega-contracts, there’s also a ceiling on how high a salary can go, so the natural thing to do is to make a deal longer instead of more expensive. So there are counter-pressures
|
| 11:02 |
: Do you see the cubs going after a veteran player before the trade deadline this year?
|
| 11:02 |
: Yes
|
| 11:02 |
: Did you see Dustin Fowler Injury. Any idea how that might affect his future.
|
| 11:03 |
: Assume that he will be okay, and more cautious around walls
|
| 11:03 |
: I do not know why there are still short walls on the borders of baseball fields. Unnecessary risk
|
| 11:04 |
: Jefffffff has the magic faded on Yonder Alonso?
|
| 11:04 |
: Still an above-average hitter in June, but he’s definitely not one of the game’s elite. It makes sense that pitchers would take a little while to adjust to the new version
|
| 11:04 |
: Does Villar reclaim his starting spot and turn his season around, or was he a fluke?
|
| 11:04 |
: Partial fluke, but Sogard is also a partial fluke, so Villar hasn’t had the last of his opportunities
|
| 11:05 |
: What’s the equivalent to being effectively wild for a blogger?
|
| 11:05 |
: Consistent insight or entertainment delivered, despite too many typos and meandering paragraphs that could’ve been tighter
|
| 11:05 |
: I just started following the Mariners this season (yes I was sober, or i was for the first month at least), and was wondering which young players i should look forward to seeing develop?
|
| 11:05 |
: In the system? None of them
|
| 11:06 |
: Will there ever be a better pitcher matchup based on the Sullivan Interest Scale than Nola/Paxton from earlier this week?
|
| 11:06 |
: Probably, although I don’t yet know who would be involved
|
| 11:06 |
: brad hand worth 1 top 50 prospect plus another back end top 100?
|
| 11:07 |
: As long as we’re talking about someone in the 40-50 range, and not in the 1-10 range
|
| 11:07 |
: All right, I need to get rolling
|
| 11:07 |
: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days. Happy holiday weekend!
|
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.