Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/3/14

June 3, 2014

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Hey there everybody and welcome to live baseball chat Tuesday 6/3

9:01

Jeff Sullivan: Usual statement to begin: don’t bother asking me your fantasy baseball questions. I am interested in baseball, but I am not interested in your fantasy baseball, and far more importantly, I haven’t played fantasy baseball in a decade so I cannot give you good advice on how to proceed in your league(s).

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Should it become necessary for you to ask a fantasy baseball question, I urge you to attempt to disguise it as a regular baseball question. Godspeed!

9:02	Comment From ryan What is up with Adam Jones this year? Does he hit 30 homeruns this year?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: He’s topped out at 32 and 33 while playing almost every single game. Given his slow start this season, no, he’s not reaching that level. But I wouldn’t be too concerned — power slumps are the least worrying slumps, to me

9:03	Comment From ryan does adam jones steal over under 15 bases

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Under. Fan of Adam Jones?

9:04	Comment From American League Hustle What do you expect from Yordano Ventura going forward? Is it at all possible he escapes the 2014 season without a DL stint?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe maybe maybe this year, since this year has only four months left. But it does seem inevitable, right? Ventura might be one of those guys who really needs to scale it down to 90-95% in order to preserve his health

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: It’s great that Ventura can throw 99-100 but that’s probably not what’s going to allow him to be successful for a long time in the majors.

9:06	Comment From Will What’s with Kyle Seager’s home/road splits? Last night evened it up a tiny bit but still kind of crazy right?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: How about this then? http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Basically split samples of 100 PA. I just about never look at single-season H/R splits. Why cut the season in half?

9:07	Comment From Northsider Jeff, it looks like you left the Cubs off the poll. Oh wait… we’re terri-bad.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: And just wait’ll Samadzija and Hammel are gone!

9:07	Comment From john I wish the mets could play the phillies all year

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Everyone wishes everyone could play the Phillies all year

9:07	Comment From Lars Good read on Singleton. Will Texas use the shift against him?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine he’ll be shifted almost immediately

9:09	Comment From AL Pitching Coach Anything wrong with Drew Smyly right now? Can we look forward to greener pastures up ahead?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: He looks a lot like he did as a starter in 2012, except he’s currently down about a mile per hour or so on all his pitches. With that, you expect an inferior performance, and Smyly at the moment looks like something like a No. 4. No. 4’s offer inconsistency

9:11	Comment From AllIsLost What would you walk-up song be? You’re restricted to Eddie Money songs.

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: Two Tickets to Paradise, and I’d just loop the same line over and over and over, like an audio .gif. I’ve got two tickets to paradise / I’ve got two tickets to paradise / I’ve got two tickets to paradise / I’ve got two tickets to paradise / I’ve got two tickets to paradise / (umpire signals to cut it off)

9:12	Comment From Darth Stout Does the disparity in coverage between the NFL draft and the MLB draft aggravate you like it aggravates me?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Most things about the NFL aggravate me but remember that drafted football players play high-level football immediately

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: And those players seem to be a lot more projectable. Baseball…well it’ll never be close.

9:13	Comment From Cory Jeff, what can be expected from Paxton for the rest of the year? Any hope?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Some hope, sure, but when you have a continuing shoulder issue, it doesn’t mean very much when the team downplays the significance. It’s a shoulder issue the player and organization didn’t expect. I’m fearful

9:14	Comment From Bryce Harpers uncle Which highly touted prospect ends up having the best season? Taveras, Springer, or Polanco?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Taveras will be the most beloved, Springer will be the most exciting, Polanco will be the most consistent and productive overall

9:15	Comment From Guest will Kris Bryant hit the majors in 2014? what do you think of Mike Olts long term future with the Cubs?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Bryant’s coming, and Olt isn’t a difficult guy to displace. Might eventually turn into a half-decent starter but I dont’ love the skill package

9:16	Comment From Eric Hosmer Marcus Stroman has a pretty good curve huh? http://blogs.thescore.com/d…

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be a party pooper and just say it’s easy to make anyone’s pitch look good if you only select one or two .gifs. I could make Joe Saunders look like a propaganda Cy Young

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: but yeah, Stroman rocks

9:17	Comment From Walking with dArnaudsaurs If the Astros talent pans out pretty well, and with the A’s and Angels solid for at least the near term, do you think the AL West has the potential to be what the AL East was for many years?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: nah, there won’t be beasts of that level. The A’s will be solid but restricted. The Angels will have too much money tied up in the wrong guys. The Rangers will be competitive but short of elite. The Mariners aren’t run well. The Astros will also be restricted

9:19	Comment From Steve Can you explain what happened to the perception of Strasburg? He has been excellent yet is constantly overlooked as an elite pitcher. Is it due to him not throwing 100mph anymore?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I think about this every so often. I think it’s simply a matter of how much hype he had when he arrived. Everyone fell in love with Strasburg at first, and you just can’t sustain that same level of appreciation

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Eventually everyone awesome gets taken for granted, and Strasburg kind of went away for a bit with the injury. He’s back and he’s amazing, but he doesn’t throw like he used to throw, and the average fan has moved on to other, younger talented players

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, everyone on FG now just wants to think about Taveras and Springer and Polanco, and it’s like, but there’s Mike Trout! And Yasiel Puig! And other guys! We all have terrible baseball attention spans.

9:22	Comment From Alex Did you see Abreu’s HR off Kershaw last night? I was impressed.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Well it wasn’t a very good pitch http://m.mlb.com/video/topi…

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: But hitting home runs is hard!

9:23	Comment From Northsider How many 2014 draftees do you believe will be instantly considered as a top 100 prospect?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Oof. 15-20? Total guess

9:23	Comment From Guest Who do you think will have the better year after they return from the DL Paxton or Pineda?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Paxton if he ever returns. Never ever ever take a return from injury for granted

9:24	Comment From 1st Place Jays Better hitter EE or Joey Bats?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Bautista by a little bit

9:25	Comment From Your Baby Boy What do you think about Cliff Lee’s injury?Possible landing spots and what the Phillies might be able to grab for him?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: It’s June and he’s not throwing yet. He needs to get back to full speed, and then he needs to sustain at 100% for long enough for teams to be convinced he’s okay. I don’t see Lee as a realistic July trade candidate. August, perhaps, but more likely this might be an offseason thing

9:26	Comment From JB Hey — in your opinion, what happened to Straily’s 2014? Is he getting people out in AAA and maybe be back up soon?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Reduced velocity, reduced command, seemed to be missing more often up. Maybe just something mechanical, but he doesn’t look like his old self in the minors yet, either. I’d say he’s not real close

9:28	Comment From Dave With all things considered (Cost to aquaire, control, impact, likelyhood of extension). Which starting pitcher makes the most sense for Toronto?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I like the unsexy Hammel idea. I’m not the biggest fan of midseason blockbusters

9:30	Comment From john If you are the mets, do you actually give flores a shot to play every day – at least for a couple weeks, just to see?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: It’s tricky because Tejada actually went and had himself a pretty good May, but the Mets aren’t a good team and Ruben Tejada isn’t a guy you can’t afford to sit, so basically, yeah, I don’t see the harm. So Flores isn’t a long-term big-league shortstop. Who cares? That sort of stuff only matters to winners.

9:31	Comment From Rags I’m curious: What would it take to get you interested in playing fantasy baseball? Is there a version of the game you’d find more interesting than available incarnations? Or is there just no interest whatsoever?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: No interest. Real baseball already occupies enough of my time. The rest is set aside for real-world pursuits

9:33

Comment From Catoblepas
I read an article talking about the A’s, and it mentioned that they have never gone into full-rebuilding mode like the Astros or the Cubs are doing now. Have they just never had to work from as poor a position as those teams, or is there something they’re doing right to flatten out their valleys in the win cycle?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: The Astros and Cubs, previously, were run into the ground. The A’s haven’t been run that far into the ground. Full rebuilds are only recommended for total disasters

9:34	Comment From Mike Would you say the Blue Jays have a ‘video game’ offense… as per Stroman over the weekend?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Well, some of them walk, and it’s impossible to draw walks in baseball video games

9:35	Comment From 1st Place Jays Any hope for Brett Lawrie to become an above average hitter?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: He’s 24 and his wRC+ numbers keep starting with 9s. So, sure, there’s some hope

9:35	Comment From Adrian Nick Franklin isn’t hitting this time around either. Shouldn’t the Ms just leave him in the minors and hope for a trade?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Well they should hope for him to stop sucking. But it’s pretty clear there’s a huge hurdle between Triple-A and the majors that Franklin hasn’t yet been able to clear

9:36	Comment From Johnny Rockets What do you think the BoSox will do with WMB when he comes back (with Napoli healthy)? Will he need to morph into a more utile player to see the field with Drew and Xander holding down the fort? Also, Re: Xander – he feels like Matt Carpenter 2.0 with pop.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Thing about Middlebrooks is he’s not good

9:37	Comment From snid What’s with Tulo and Chris Davis’ funk? They hiding injury?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: 16 of Tulowitzki’s last 22 games have been on the road

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: As for Davis, he just isn’t as good as he was in 2013.

9:39	Comment From Alex Is Brad Miller finally starting to turn it around?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: 11 walks, 19 strikeouts since the start of May, versus 2 and 26 before that. So that’s encouraging. But the hits still haven’t been there. He might be bouncing back, but some of the perception is also just because people assumed he sucked, so now you really notice the singles

9:41	Comment From Matt What’s up with McCann so far this season? Disappointing start to his new contract.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: On the plus side, he had a 66 wRC+ in April and a 100 wRC+ in May. But yeah, you’d hope for something better than his 2012

9:42	Comment From 1st Place Jays Thoughts on Marcus Stroman?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Fan. Not worried about his size. Don’t think he’ll ever be amazing but I like him to make an instant impact

9:43	Comment From Do we sell him now? Did we see the shoe start to drop with Shark this past weekend?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: You mean five days after he struck out ten Giants without a single walk?

9:45	Comment From JEFFW Why is Eovaldi so bad against lefties?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: He’s actually gotten a lot better

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Eovaldi over the years against LHB

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: 6.9% K-BB 2.9% 2.5% 11.8%

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: He’s a fastball guy, mainly, so there’s going to be a platoon split, but what you’re seeing is a whole lot of BABIP

9:47	Comment From Matt Are there any minor leaguers drafted on days two and three that stand out to you as underrated? If so, who?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: The draft hasn’t happened yet

9:48	Comment From Tom Jones Rubby De La Rosa; are we sold on him sticking in the rotation going forward?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: He didn’t dominate Triple-A and he has an injury history. Very talented, yes, but not a guy you bet on

9:48	Comment From Jacob Should we expect David Price’s ERA to drop? his FIP is 3.25 but his actual is around 4.14

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he’s awesome

9:48	Comment From Aaron Are there any metrics that help shed light on how long it takes hitters to adjust to major league pitching? You hear a lot about “sophomore slumps.” Are there “junior jumps” (significant progress)?

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: Every player’s going to be different. Some guys adjust immediately. Mike Trout actually struggled a bit his first year. And sometimes you have a Dustin Ackley, who’s awesome until something changes and he struggles to recover. I don’t believe in sophomore slumps, but I do believe in adjustment periods following adjustment periods

9:50	Comment From Bryce Harpers uncle What’s up with Eric Hosmer? With the change in hitting coach, will he have the type of turnaround he had last year?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: What is it with the Royals and increases in O-Contact%?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I think Hosmer’s going to be okay — again, it’s just a modest power slump — but he’s not an elite player when he’s good

9:50	Comment From Bryce Harpers uncle What type of season will Jon Singleton have? How many homers do you see him hitting?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll give him 1 WAR. Occasionally excellent offense, not a lot else. But he’ll be a presence in the lineup, where Guzman/Krauss has been something you go get a drink during

9:52	Comment From JB Hi Jeff – What do you think of Straily this year in 2014? He’s getting people out in AAA. Do you think he’s back up this year? Soon? Seems Milone is pitching over his normal levels; same with Chavez?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: In Triple-A, Straily’s walks are up and his strikeouts are down

9:52	Comment From Jern Gibgons How big of a factor is height with SPs? Is it about durability? What do you think of Stroman keeping his rotation spot going forward this year and beyond.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Some of it is about durability, and some of it is about arm angles and perceived velocities. Taller pitchers have an advantage because they can release the ball closer to home plate

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: While there’s probably something to the relationship between height and durability, I suspect it isn’t that strong

9:53	Comment From Guest With Dee Gordon’s recent struggles at batting. Does he maintain the starting 2nd base gig all year? Or does a certain prospect get the call sooner than later?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: They liked him before he had a month of being good. He’s got a very long leash

9:54	Comment From Marco Corey Kluber is a top ____ pitcher in baseball.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: 20

9:54	Comment From JustaBit Outside What do you do with pitchers that are awful out of the gate, like Garrett Richards? he’s given up more that 4 runs in the first inning three times.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: You bet on regression to the mean and you try to figure out if maybe he could do better prep in the bullpen

9:55	Comment From snid Do you detest the attendees of games that treat it as a social gathering rather than the game that it is. You know those people waving to the camera while on their cells,the pick hats at Fenway….

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: There are personality types I like more than others, but attendees are paying for entertainment, and they’re free to be entertained however they want. I don’t care how you choose to enjoy something so long as it doesn’t interfere with my own enjoyment

9:56	Comment From David Is this what Desmond Jennings is? Any more room for growth?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: This is probably what he is, and this is good

9:57	Comment From john I think seeing what springer just did has raised some expectations of singleton. Isnt he really just an all or nothing, bat first 1b? whats a realistic expectation here?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: He’s far less likely than Springer to be a WAR superstar, but patience and power is a good combination.

9:57	Comment From Nathan How do you see Tommy La Stella performing ROS? Do you see him holding on to the 2B job in Atlanta?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s very good, but the whole pile sucks

9:59	Comment From Redlegs Jay Bruce in a funk or is there something really wrong?