Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/16/13

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Good ol reliable Jeff, always unreliable

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: FanGraphs chat!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: All right, finally, errors overcome. Jesus

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: This thing, sometimes…

9:08	Comment From bdhudson Did you read Rick Reilly’s article about the lying scumbag that apparently is Chris Davis? What do you think about his ‘we have to accuse everybody’ approach?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I was told about Reilly’s article, which gave me enough information to know to just skip it.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: What’s the benefit of reading that kind of garbage? He’s an awful sportswriter. Awful and unoriginal.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: People have their own comfortable levels of skepticism, and they’re mostly individual. Me, I just don’t really even care.

9:09	Comment From ozzie 2nd half line for Harper?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Good

9:09	Comment From Bo Should the Braves go for broke and sell the farm for someone like Samardzija? They’ve got about a three-year window.

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: In theory, the question is “should the Braves sacrifice some future for more of a guaranteed present.” But the future is unknown and the present is unguaranteeable, so in reality the question is “should the Braves pursue a trade for Samardzija?” In which case my answer is, sure, why not? But only to a point, as always

9:11

Comment From Scott
If you have two players, one who will produce 15.5 WAR in 6 team controlled year, but only a 15% chance to reach that level, and another who will produce 3 WAR in 6 team controlled years, with a 75% chance of reaching that level. Obviously I picked numbers so that the expected WARs are basically equal (2.325…2.25).

All things equal (position, team’s spot on marginal win curve, etc), would a team rather draft Player A or Player B?

All things equal, would a team rather draft 5 Player As or 5 Player Bs?

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: Player A and five Player A’s. The level of Player B is just so low that it’s almost without real value. You’re talking about *maybe* half a win a season, and that’s nothing. That’s a half-decent bench player. Teams will sometimes choose safety over risk, but not if the safety is in the form of a fungible asset. That’s not a high floor, so to speak

9:14	Comment From Jason Should teams be able to stop paying money to released players that don’t catch on with another team? How much money do you think Chone Figgins would have needed to give the Marlins to in order to collect his $9M?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: A bad contract is a bad contract

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that’s too simple but I don’t see anything wrong with the current setup

9:15	Comment From Phil This is the first time that I enabled the sound of the chats and it reminds me of the transformers noise

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It’s become automatic for me to mute my computer as soon as I fire up the chat window

9:16	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy Yoenis Cespedes is a strong man

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much the whole point of the home run derby right there

9:16	Comment From zack Colby Rasmus is tied for second among AL outfielders in WAR. Granted he has a +10 uzr, but still WTF?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Things I didn’t expect to be the future when Rasmus was running like a 50% contact rate

9:16	Comment From Sam the trade value series has Jeff Samardzija ranked ahead of David Price (I know this is largely for financial reasons). Who would you rather have for the next 5 years?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I think Samardzija by a hair. Moderately concerned about Price’s velocity drop

9:18	Comment From Neil What’s the most fun moment(s) of baseball for you so far this year? Mine is Pena tagging out Swisher. (Link to video: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130708&content_id=53159644&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb )

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Admitting my bias, maybe Kyle Seager’s game-tying, extra-innings grand slam, even though the Mariners eventually lost

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: But there are a lot of candidates, almost none of which I can remember off the top of my head, because my memory is embarrassing

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Seriously, if any of you are doctors with experimental memory drugs, email me and I’ll give you my home address and thousands of dollars

9:20	Comment From Steve Did you break up with Gifs? It was probably for the best

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Not every post includes .gifs! It’s never been that way!

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: But I just had .gifs in the post about Longoria/Street yesterday

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: There are too many .gifs on the Internet and I’m conscious of that, but they’re also extraordinarily helpful

9:21	Comment From Dan Christ just be better than Szymborski’s chat yesterday, who talked about terrorizing his sister…

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a sister

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I do have a sister-in-law now, which is still weird to say

9:22	Comment From Guest What do the M’s do with Stefen Romero? Is he trade bait?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Well, the team is short on outfielders, but Romero hasn’t really hit yet in Triple-A. So he’s not forcing anything

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: There were thoughts he might be the next Catricala. He might be kind of on that path

9:23	Comment From bdhudson The phillies have played their way into believing they will make a run, which they won’t. They trade nobody and continue to be bad. True?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’ll make some moves but they seem like a team that might end up moving parts in August

9:24	Comment From nacho Who impressed you the most at the derby last night? I was surprised by Cuddyer’s power, but Prince hit some real moonshots last night.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Probably Cespedes but I didn’t watch because I’m not an insane person

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t ask me about the All-Star Game either! I’m going to the gym.

9:25	Comment From Alex Chris Davis broke a blister on his hand last night at the HR Derby. Is this something that can carry into the week after the break and hinder performance?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be fine super quick

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: MAYBE IT’S A STEROID BLISTER

9:26	Comment From MBM Paul Maholm: Useful fantasy starter ROS? His peripherals still look solid…

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: He’s Paul Maholm. He’s as useful as Paul Maholm has ever been

9:27	Comment From Joe 2014 and beyond, can you rank Matt Adams, Rizzo, and Hosmer? Thanks!

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Looks like you already did

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Or did you mean rank them in a specific order?

9:27	Comment From RetireNutting Am I crazy for not wanting Rios anywhere near the Pirates roster? His +2wins ROS aren’t worth loss of future wins when STL still will win NLC, right?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how many future wins you think getting Alex Rios is going to cost, but the Pirates wouldn’t have to give up the farm. And this is a tight race. Rios isn’t the only option, but he’d be a definite, substantial upgrade

9:29	Comment From Eddie The ASB is all the misery of the offseason, plus a heat index of 100!

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s helpful to have a few days of no new baseball, to allow us to more deeply reflect on all the past baseball

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: It’s been more than 90 games, for everybody! What a ride it’s been, mabe

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: The season is god-damned long and at least for me, this break is necessary for survival

9:31	Comment From Gary I seem to be having tremendous difficulty with my lifestyle

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Try something new that you commit to once or twice a week. Something that also exposes you to different people.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: It sounds like your life needs a little seasoning

9:32	Comment From Jason What kind of contract could Ryan Braun get in Japan if he were permanently banned from MLB?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: A few years ago I think the highest salary in Japan was a little over $5 million a season?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: So, not the kind of contract you might think

9:35	Comment From Guest Which young M’s hitters would you extend this year/off season, if any?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Time to get Seager locked up

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: No pressure with any of the others

9:36	Comment From Josef Any predictions on what the highest-leverage plate appearance will entail tonight?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: If I ever make an All-Star Game prediction I hope somebody breaks into my apartment and forces me at gunpoint to hang myself

9:38

Comment From Douglas
Jeff: scenario. Angry Blue Jays fans revolt against the team’s administration during this brutal season, and through some strange dealings, you are appointed GM. After panicking and trying to replace yourself with someone more qualified, only to be told this is now a dictatorship where you will work for life, what are your first steps to helping the on-the-field team for a rebound in 2014?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Well, already I think the Jays are fairly well positioned to make a run in 2014, regardless. So that’s an important consideration

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I see how Josh Johnson feels about a pricey one-year contract, to allow him to re-establish some value before going into the FA market

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I scour the market for an actual catcher

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: it’s not an easy situation and it’d be really helpful if Brett Lawrie didnt’ suck

9:43	Comment From Bryan G. Hey there, Jeff. What’s the funniest thing you’ve seen in baseball this year?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: DAMN THIS MEMORY OF MINE

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: THINKING

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Recently, there was bird http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2915033/bird.gif

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: ummm

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Man this sucks. Crowdsource!

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: This is my most embarrassing, shameful trait 🙁

9:45	Comment From bdhudson Last night, Adam Jones put ketchup on a hot dog. This is unacceptable.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: If you’re already going to eat a hot dog I’m pretty sure it doesn’t matter what you choose to put on top of it, you’re already murdering yourself

9:46	Comment From Dan What can I reasonably expect for Big Fat Bartolo Colon in a trade right now?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Probably more if you don’t call him that

9:46	Comment From Guest Why is Danny Espinosa projected to receive 188 of the 290 remaining ABs as the Nats 2B and Anthony Rendon only projected to receive 43?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Human error

9:46	Comment From Redbeard Where do you see kendrys Moralas ending the season. You know other than the closest buffet.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I actually think he might stay with the Mariners. Depends how the M’s feel about keeping him for a few years — they can keep him, extend a qualifying offer, and deal a blow to his FA market

9:47	Comment From John W. So, do you think this Mariners offense is going to stick around a while?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: As the best offense in the league? No

9:48	Comment From Michael Hey Jeff, on a scale of 1 to Puig, how awesome was Cespedes’ bat flip last night?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: 8.5

9:48	Comment From Danny Odds that Chris Davis limits regression and hits 60 homeruns?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Low, because in this way I am a conservative

9:49	Comment From 20longyears Let’s assume that Gregory Polanco is playing outfield for the Pirates this time next year. How highly would a Marte/Cutch/Polanco outfield rate? All elite fielders and hitters with some power, but nobody with the elite HR power typically expected from a corner outfielder.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Polanco has a sub-.800 OPS in Double-A

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Going to go ahead and not get ahead of myself here

9:49	Comment From John Do you know how Theo Epstein must have felt last year now when he watched what he built crumble so quickly?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2010.shtml

9:50	Comment From Steve Cespedes still sucks even though he won the derby. Agree? Just a dismal 2013 season.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:50	Comment From Ira Can you explain the Oakland A’s?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: They are smart and good and deep

9:50	Comment From Steve Brad Miller. Capable of a .350 woba 2nd half of this season?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Capable, yes, but won’t do it

9:51	Comment From Phil Remember when Rick Reilly used to write interesting, thoughtful articles for SI?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I remember thinking that’s how it was but I haven’t gone back to read his old material

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: In fairness it probably isn’t easy to write about sports for like 40 or 50 years

9:51	Comment From John What did you do with the extra 3 hours you had last night not liveblogging the Home Run Derby?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I wrote about Manny Machado

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: also I jogged but holy hell is that ever uninteresting to you

9:52	Comment From Steve Prince Fielder. On the decline? Thoughts?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not getting better but he’s got good years still ahead of him

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: He’s better than his current WAR pace

9:54	Comment From Steve Does Joe Mauer’s rising K rate give you enough cause to question his future?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I would have to investigate to get a better idea of what’s up, but given what Mauer’s still doing, I’m of the immediate sense this is probably a deliberate choice that he made

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Groundball rate is way down and so maybe he’s just trying to hit for a bit more power

9:55	Comment From Jason Why doesn’t managing-editor Dave Cameron just get you a MacBook Air like him?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t want one and haven’t asked for one

9:55	Comment From zack Adam Dunn has made two all star teams yet somehow has never been in the home run derby. Makes no sense

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: The Home Run Derby doesn’t make sense

9:55	Comment From Tim A The A’s should get more love!

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: They get a lot of it

9:55	Comment From Kate Should the Rangers go after a RH bat or a starting pitcher?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:56	Comment From bdhudson Who loses his job first, Eric Wedge or Mike Scioscia?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: As of right now, it’s a total coin flip, but if the M’s don’t disappoint the rest of the way, then Scioscia

9:56

Comment From McExpos
Hi Jeff! Would you please wax poetic on being a writer for a specific team vs. being a national writer? I watch 0% of baseball that isn’t the Mariners but watch about 100 games a year of the M’s, and I wonder what it would be like to care less about one specific team and care more about baseball in general.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a lot more emotion involved when you’re just watching one team, and it colors the experience and the writing. When you’re observing baseball in general, overall, there’s less emotion and more just looking around for what interests you.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Which isn’t to say there can’t be emotion when you’re watching someone else — Tim Lincecum’s no-hitter was fun — but it’s different. And with other teams, you know things in less detail

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s vitally important to have a deepest tie to one team, but when that one team isn’t pulling its weight, it’s also important to be able to appreciate the rest of the game, because when times are bad for the one team the rest of the game can remind you why you choose to give a shit

9:59	Comment From Brady How much do the Rays get for Rodney last offseason

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Not a ton — teams still wouldn’t have trusted him very much

9:59	Comment From Steve Kyle Seager… guy is legit. Agree? Not getting fortunate, can really hit the ball

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: A guy maximizing his tools, and the counter-argument to people who say the Mariners have terrible player development