Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/9/13

July 9, 2013

8:59	Jeff Sullivan: Hello, and we’ll get started in just a few minutes

9:02	Comment From Alex It seems too “on time” please push it back

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: That’s why I’m still finishing up my breakfast, even after 9am rolls by

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I could stress out about this, or…

9:02	Comment From zack What are the odds the Mariners try and sell high on Iwakuma and flip him for highly touted prospects that flame out in two years?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Just don’t see it happening. The team isn’t that far away — pretty much no team is that far away — and Iwakuma is a really good value. Good luck replacing that value. Not saying it wouldn’t make some sense, but that’s a good situation that doesn’t need to be interrupted

9:03

Comment From Guest
The Pirates have a real shot at the playoffs but they haven’t received alot of production out of their rightfielders. What if they moved Marte to center & McCutchen to right? It would be easier for them to find a bat for left and their defense could be improved in center/right. Thoughts?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Not helpful to disrupt a pair of regular outfielders so you can try to go find a third, especially since it isn’t markedly easier to find a LF than a RF. Nate Schierholtz would still make an awful lot of sense

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for a few more Mariners questions:

9:06	Comment From Clambaker What are your thoughts on how the Dustin Ackley as CF experiment has gone thus far?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Not supposed to be doing this in the majors yet, so it’s a work in progress. This is what a work in progress looks like

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: No reason to believe he doesn’t have the range, but his arm is going to be one of the worse ones, probably

9:07	Comment From Kevin What’s your take on the last ~400 Justin Smoak PAs (.275/.371/.441)?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Legitimate big-leaguer, obviously below star level, but worth playing. He’s figured some things out

9:08	Comment From James Jose Altuve… What gives? Would Aaron Hill be a better fantasy option ROS?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: He just isn’t actually that good. He’s just passable. Also he’s 23

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: spent all of 35 games above Single-A

9:09	Comment From Baron Von Waffles Is WAR based off position as well? So if a 1B and SS are playing exactly identical ball, the SS would have a higher WAR since SS is a premium position?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: If they have identical offensive numbers and baserunning numbers and UZR, the shortstop will have the higher WAR, yes, because his defense is coming at a premium position

9:11	Comment From Guest Prospect question: what’s the difference (in ceiling) between Yelich & Buxton?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Not big enough to worry about either way

9:11

Comment From Izzy
Question about David Wright. The projection systems see him as about a 5 WAR player. They likely don’t weight his 05-08 performance that much. Does the fact that he was a great player who declined and came back make you think he’s better than ZIPS and Steamer say? What would you put his true talent WAR at?

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: The projection systems don’t completely buy his drop in strikeouts. Also, you have to look over at the Fielding column — from 2009-2011, Wright got some really negative defensive scores. Figure that evens out a little bit, figure the contact gains are real, and Wright sure seems like a seven-win player, ish

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how much it should matter if a guy has been elite in the distant past, but at least that gives you something to compare to

9:15	Comment From Bret I have so many questions about the Blue Jays’ pitching rotation but I guess I’ll choose the most pertinent which is… what is up with RA Dickey? Or is it… what is up with Josh Johnson? Will any of these pitchers ever be good again?

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: Johnson is probably okay — the velocity is there, the strikeouts and walks are normal, the grounders are normal. Same xFIP as he had a year ago, just with different other numbers. Dickey has a pretty well documented back injury thing that might be related to his struggles, but he’s at least contributing some amount of value. And he’s 38 years old. Johnson, I believe in. Dickey is probably getting worse

9:17	Comment From Kate And I was all ready for a chat starting now, not in a few minutes.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I will keep you on your toes

9:18	Comment From Daniel C Can Raul Ibanez be explained by science? I’m not sure he can.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: probably by alien science

9:18	Comment From Dan What team(s) outside of the playoff picuture currently do you see getting in? (Current WCs are Pittsburgh, Cincy, Texas, TB)

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Let me do a quick sweep of the standings…

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: My answer is none. I think the current playoff teams will be the eventual playoff teams!

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Hard to pick between the Orioles and the Rays but it seems like David Price and Matt Moore are going to get going and the Orioles are probably done upgrading post-Feldman

9:20	Comment From Rob If you could put a statue of any player doing something they did in front of any stadium, who/what would you choose? Cruz missing the flyball in the WS in Arlington would be a great choice

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Texas doesn’t need another super depressing statue

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Personally, I’d choose this image of Randy Johnson, for Seattle http://www.gasolinealleyantiques.com/sports/baseball/images/mariners/96-marinerssked.JPG

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: San Francisco gets Barry Bonds’ dinger pose

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: 13 teams get statues of Octavio Dotel living out of a suitcase

9:25	Comment From Izzy What do you think the Mets could get for Bobby Parnell?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Less than you’d want them to

9:25	Comment From mr. anonymous haren looked not bad last night. last year, after his dl stint he was serviceable the remainder of the year. any thoughts that it could be the same this year?

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: You know how this goes. Haren’s big problems are BABIP and dingers. Strikeouts are mostly fine, walks are mostly fine, velocity is mostly fine. Haren, unquestionably, is worse than he used to be, but I still see a fine back-of-the-rotation starter in there, even if the Nationals don’t anymore

9:26	Comment From Jimmer What do you think of Carlos Santana? regression to his true self or just an extended cold streak?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing’s wrong. He’s now the same player he’s been three years in a row. In one sense, he’s incredibly consistent. The perception of consistency goes away if you get pedantic about it

9:28	Comment From Kap What do you make of the recent Garza extension talk? Assuming you still believe they’ll trade him, how good do you expect the prospect return to be? Top 100? Top 50?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Makes sense to at least explore the possibility of an extension since Garza is good and the Cubs aren’t far off. Maybe they’ve been underwhelmed by the various trade proposals. I think a return package would probably be headed by a prospect somewhere in the 30-50 range

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think a team will see three months of Garza as being worth an elite-level prospect, and remember that if Garza gets traded, there’s no possible qualifying offer

9:30	Comment From Alex Are there any moves that you see the M’s making before the deadline?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Oliver Perez is going to be gone

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: hooweeeeeee

9:31	Comment From Eminor3rd Does Peavy get dealt? Pitching is THIN

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Depends how he looks when he’s back but plenty of reason to believe a healthy Peavy gets put on the market

9:34	Comment From Guest Where does Rios end up?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Giants? Would be a splash, albeit an understandable one, for Pittsburgh. Not a whole lot of obvious suitors but there’s little reason for Chicago to keep him around

9:35

Comment From Hieronymous
Are hitters more aggressive on 3-2 counts than other 2-strike counts? I feel like I’ve seen several hitters this year get to an early 2-strike count, take a bunch of close pitches to work the count full, and then swing and miss at some garbage nowhere near the zone to strikeout.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s try the google!

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Well this is helpful! http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/when-batters-swing-and-when-they-dont/

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: It’s an interesting situation in a full count, because the hitter is incentivized to look for a ball, but the pitcher is more incentivized to throw a strike, because the ball penalty is steep, and hitters are aware of that. So hitters end up perhaps a little overaggressive as a consequence

9:38

Comment From Paul
Are UIBB and IBB calculated differently in determining a player’s offensive value? I get the reason lots of people make the distinction between the two, as a UIBB is less likely to be a result of various other factors and more likely correlated to an actual skill. But as far as contribution, they do the same thing right?

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: The run value of an intentional walk is a little lower than the run value of a non-intentional walk, because those intentional walks will come in selected situations. For example, you’re not going to see an intentional walk with the bases loaded. But as far as I’m concerned, I think intentional walks should go into a value measurement, and only unintentional walks should be considered for a predictive measurement

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Unintentional walks better reflect actual skill, not that intentional walks can’t be predicted to some extent

9:40	Comment From zack Player A 2013 .302 wOBA, 92 wRC+. Player B 2013 .329 wOBA, 108 wRC+ PLayer A is Josh Hamilton and Player B is Delmon Young. At what point does Hamilton figure stuff out or has he permanently turned into the cubs version of Alphonso Soriano?

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: Few better hitters than Hamilton over the last two weeks. Granted, that’s only two weeks, and the leaderboard is littered with random names, but with a talent like Hamilton you can’t helpb ut think every hot streak is a sign of what’s to come. He’s not dead yet — he’s just raised a lot of concern

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I think we’ll have a much, much better idea of Josh Hamilton one year from now

9:41	Comment From Eric The Pirates need to keep Marte/McCutchen in Left/Center due to PNC’s huge left field. RF is the easy position in that outfield, they can’t waste one of their two good defensive OF’s there.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: There you go, earlier guy

9:42	Comment From Dr. Met Frenchy is Bochy’s newest Aubrey Huff?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: “It’s just a minor-league deal, there’s no harm,” says the optimist, ignoring that there’s also no gain and a whole lot of risk

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Francoeur isn’t on the roster yet, but given that he’s terrible, why even end up in this position?

9:43	Comment From Anthony What do you consider the ideal score for a baseball game?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: 4-3

9:43	Comment From zack I’m telling you, the cubs will never deal Schierholtz within the division.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: man I hate this

9:44	Comment From Dr. Met Re: buccos, would Nate be a huge upgrade over what they are expecting from Tabata?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Schierholtz bats lefty, and there’s value in that flexibility and depth

9:46	Comment From Snakecharm Bobby Where can the Dbacks improve their roster offensively? One more bat could be enough to hold off LA down the stretch, barring any Heath Bell implosions.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: What they really need is for Montero and Prado to not be bad

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a difficult team to try to upgrade, specifically because of the way the roster was constructed. Pretty much all reasonable gains would be limited in magnitude

9:47	Comment From hooha Are the Joba to the Phillies rumors as rediculous to you as they are to me? If Amaro is actually thinking about giving up value for him, he deserves to be locked in a padded room.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Having now read that article, it seems to me the idea would be for the Phillies to shed some salary

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: They’d take Joba back not because they highly value him, but because they’d want to offset to some extent a salary loss. So I wouldn’t worry about that one very much

9:50	Comment From Jimmer long-term prognosis on Marte?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Good, swings too much, second-tier player

9:50	Comment From Dan In theory, would it make sense to switch right and left fielders depending on the hitter if one is a markedly better fielder? For example, righty with power at the plate, switching Heyward to left and Gattis to right.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, that’d be sensible and a whole lot of fun

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: It’d make things a little difficult on the outfielders themselves, but if you have a big enough difference in defensive quality, it could pay off

9:52	Comment From Gila Monster Should we be worried about Kung Fu Panda? 0 runs or RBIs thanks to a sub .300 OPS over the past 50 AB

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s always a little bit meaningful when a guy performs terribly fresh off the disabled list, but Sandoval was only on there for a foot thing, so odds are this is just a little blip and he’s going to be the same inexplicable value the rest of the way he usually is

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: Sandoval’s O-Swing% is actually approaching 50%

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: he’s beyond 47%. 56% as a rookie in 2008!

9:55	Comment From Joe Time to sell high on Matt Moore? Control problems, xFIP, FIP #’s, etc.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: At least he’s turned up the strikeouts lately, although granted he’s faced some mediocre teams. But yeah, I’m truly concerned about Moore’s control and I’ve written about this in the somewhat recent past, I think

9:56	Comment From Moose Are you surprised to see Profar not getting more playing time with Berkman on the DL? Is it possible that Manny gets the call after the break and Profar gets sent back down?

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: It’s certainly possible, depending on what Ramirez actually shows, but I think Profar is just figuring out how to be a utility player at the moment and there’ll be a lot of value if he demonstrates all that flexibility. Imagine if, down the stretch, Profar could offer support at every non-C/P position

9:57	Comment From J Chris Davis has to regress even just a little bit right? Trade him for another high-end 1B?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Every extreme performance can and should be expected to regress, but the problem with breakthroughs is that the whole time, you’re expecting them to stop, and then they never do. Just enjoy being the owner of the home-run leader