Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/10/18

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Just finished podding. Good to go now

9:07	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:08	Mookie Betts: So are MVP voters still too old school to see that I am in fact the one and only deserving MVP? Because in 20 games less I have done more than the rest!

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: MVP voters for some reason still get worried about vote-splitting. I suspect Betts is going to have his support somewhat mitigated by the presence of J.D. Martinez

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I wonder how strongly Matt Chapman is going to finish in the ballots. Lots of defensive value, which usually doesn’t get much credit, but he’ll be the main reason why the A’s make the playoffs, if they make they playoffs

9:09	Brett: What is going on with Severino? Also, Wild Card game starts today…is he even your starter?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Would’ve been a better question a few days ago. Severino just struck out eight White Sox, with zero walks, over seven innings

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Right now I still don’t see too much reason to be alarmed

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: His release point has been slowly going up all season long, and I haven’t taken too close a look at his delivery, but this is the kind of thing I assume he straightens out. His stuff is all still there

9:12	Pete Shoelacer: Who is the real David Bote?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Roughly league-average eye, pretty good top exit velocities. I can’t yet say much about Bote as a defender, but he’s a big-leaguer. Probably good enough to be a decent starter somewhere

9:14	2-D: Do certain pitch types play up or down for day games?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: What a great research project for somebody else!

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: That sounds dismissive but I’m serious

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Would require skills more technical than what I possess

9:15	Walu Weegee: Who could be the best players (aside from Trout) in the league in 2020?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Many of the same players who are among the best today

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: 2020 isn’t that distant. Among the top 10 WAR marks for 2016 were Trout, Betts, Bryant, Syndergaard, Seager, Altuve, Kershaw, and Machado

9:17	KB: Will Carlos Martinez ever make the next step to be a true ace?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: He’s never stayed out of walk trouble against left-handed hitters. That’s been true for so many years now I don’t think we can assume he gets better

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Could end up something simple — we know this year he tried adding a cutter — but the likelihood is he is what he is

9:20	Guest: Craig Stammen is pretty good? Why wasn’t he looked at as a trade candidate. High WAR, K/9, SwStr% & GB%

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: He was looked at as a trade candidate. He just wasn’t traded, like Kirby Yates

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: The reliever market was flooded, and both Stammen and Yates are still under club control in 2019. Padres will probably just try again

9:22	Eppler: What happens to Cozart if Ward has a strong September and ST 2019? Fletcher looks solid at 2B and 3B (can fill in at SS), Rengifo can play 2B, 3B and SS as well. Cowart can play SS, 2B and 3B (even some corner OF in a pinch).

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Cozart would presumably play second. Third would be a battle between Ward, Fletcher, etc. Ward hasn’t succeeded in the majors yet, and Fletcher is slugging .351

9:25	Eppler: Who catches for us in 2019?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Based on zero inside information: Kurt Suzuki, Tyler Flowers, or Austin Hedges

9:27	Blue jays: Will Bo Bichette start 2019 in AAA? When do you think he will reach the big league?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Very strong likelihood he begins next year in Triple-A. From there, if he’s good enough, he’d be likely to come up somewhere around July

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Keep in mind he hasn’t exactly torn it up this season. Not a bad season! Just not an eye-popping one. The Blue Jays will be predictably patient

9:29	Scott: I think there is something wrong with how the playoff odds page for the NL wildcard is shown. Currently it shows 6 teams that are less than 0 games back. Ex, the cardinals shouldn’t currently be 0 games back in the wild card.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I think it’s getting thrown off because of the tie atop the NL West. I’ll forward to Sean

9:30	Bork: Will the Orioles be eliminated tonight?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: When God closes a door, he opens a window

9:30	mike sixel: Has any team unloaded as many players in July and August as MN has this year? Can they send Morrison or Forsythe or Santana out still and keep it going? They don’t have many guys left to deal….

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: It was a roster made up of a whole bunch of contract-year players. This is what happens to those

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be shocked to see Ervin Santana on the move

9:32	Guest: Seems like Jesus Luzardo will pitch for the A’s since their rotation is thin right now. Have you heard anything about this?

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t heard anything, aside from Luzardo having been promoted to Triple-A. I think part of the reason they got Fiers was to reduce the pressure here. Ideally, I think the A’s would let Luzardo’s season play out where it is, but there’s little question to me that they’d want him to be available in the playoffs should they indeed advance

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Luzardo isn’t on the 40-man roster, and in theory he’d have to be added by August 31 to be postseason-eligible

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: But! “Clubs can petition the Commissioner’s Office to add any player that was not on the 40-man roster as of Aug. 31 — provided the player was in the organization on Aug. 31 and is replacing a player who has spent at least 60 days on the 60-day disabled list. The Royals were able to use this tactic to add Brandon Finnegan to their roster during the 2014 postseason, despite the fact that Finnegan was not on the 40-man roster as of Aug. 31.”

9:35	Hae-Lo Dee: Felix 🙁

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe he’ll have a bullpen rejuvenation!

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe!

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: If you don’t have hope, you don’t have anything

9:37

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Chris Archer’s two starts since the trade: 9.1 IP, 12 H, 2 HR, 5 BB, 9 K, 7 runs (5 ER)
Tyler Glasnow’s two starts (not stretched out yet) since the trade: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 14 K, 2 R (2 ER)
Not the most meaningful sample in the world, but one of these lines is more promising than the other.

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: I think that, today, 30 out of 30 front offices would say Chris Archer is still better than Tyler Glasnow, but at the same time I think there’s a real good chance that a little down the road, we look back on this and say the Rays knew exactly what they were doing when they decided to make Archer available

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Might not be a coincidence that the Rays were more willing to trade Archer than ever. Statistically, his slider has gone backwards, and without the slider, what is he?

9:39	Rockie Dangerfield: Rumor has it the CIA has decided to stop waterboarding terror suspects in favor of forcing them to watch the Rockies bullpen.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Only works if every terror suspect is a Rockies fan

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Is every terror suspect a Rockies fan?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: If so, we gotta do something about all these Rockies fans

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe this is what makes them so radicalized in the first place

9:40	otakon: Jansen irregular heartbeat, huge blow for the dodgers. How do you think they will handle it? internally or via trade if not available for the postseason?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I think the expectation is that this is very treatable and he’d be okay by October. The Dodgers will probably stay internal; if there’s one thing they have, it’s an accumulation of quality arms

9:42	Fangraphs reader: Thoughts on Tyler White? Can he hit enough to be a 1B/DH?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: He actually projects for about the same wOBA as Gurriel

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Ditto Gattis

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: This year in Triple-A, White had twice as many walks as swinging strikeouts

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Would a team rather have Tyler White or Eric Hosmer? It’s closer than you’d think!

9:46	TFS: If Felix was a free agent after this and not next season what kind of a contract do you think he would get?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: After 2015, Tim Lincecum signed for a year and $2.5 million with the Angels

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: He was coming off surgery, while Felix would be coming off a lousy season. But something in that ballpark

9:48	Bo: Julio Teheran will cost $11MM next year… Is he an August/offseason trade candidate with all the young Braves arms starting to graduate?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t figure there would be a vibrant market

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Been a below-average pitcher for a year and a half

9:49	Walu Weegee: Given that the season is almost over, who under 25 is worth getting excited about for their long term future?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Juan Soto. Juan Soto! Juan Soto!!

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: We haven’t written nearly enough yet about Jake Bauers

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Ronald Acuna is quietly still running a 119 wRC+

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: And there are young pitchers too

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: So many options. So many exciting young baseball players. Never a shortage

9:51	Bo: Does Dansby Swanson finish next season as Atlanta’s SS? Camargo at short with Riley (or FA signing) at 3B would provide more offense.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I think Swanson will get another chance to open next season, but he has to hit. No other way to put it

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: His highest wRC+ for a month this year is 104

9:52	Jay: What do you think the chances are that the Angels move Kole Calhoun this month?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Just about 0%. They want to be competitive in 2019

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: They know they can’t give up on a year while they still have Mike Trout under contract

9:54	David: Should the Padres promote Luis Urias?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: He’s their best second baseman, but he’s also not on the 40-man roster. Personally, I wouldn’t be put off by that

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: In other words, yeah

9:56	mmddyyyy: Good baseball examples of correlation =/= causation?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I bet, if you looked at it, the Rays’ home winning percentage goes down as their attendance goes up

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Because they draw their biggest crowds from playing the Red Sox and Yankees

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know why that’s what came to me first

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Teams win more often when they wear white jerseys

9:59	David: Thoughts on Jacob Nix starting tonight?