Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/13/13

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Ahhh, late again. Just like old times!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Last week was weird and unsettling.

9:04	Comment From Brian S 9:03. Right on time.

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: 9:04. Marching to the beat of my own tardy drum

9:05	Comment From Leighton Will Cabrera win the triple crown?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: One up in RBI, six down in homers, 36 up in average. I don’t love his odds, but he has significant odds of doing this two years in a row

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Miguel Cabrera could conceivably win consecutive AL Triple Crowns

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I know the Triple Crown is kind of arbitrary but that doesn’t make it meaningless

9:06	Comment From John Lambo?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Good, got issues, not a mammoth upgrade

9:06	Comment From GSon Adrubal Cabrera’s play (on Oswald Arcia’s grounder) >> Jose Iglesias’ one hand charge and throw in one motion..

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t watched that play yet, but, probably not

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I have an idea! One minute, please!

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: so here’s Iglesias: http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=29653669

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: …and Cabrera doesn’t have an MLB.com video highlight.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Well so much for that poll idea.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Whatever, let’s just do this anyway

9:10	Comment From geoff please tell me carson cistulli will join this chat

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: He will join a chat, eventually

9:11	Comment From Brian S Will the Pirates actually win the NL Central?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Probably, yes. And I’m interested to see what the celebration is like when they clinch .500, just because there will be so many bigger fish

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: The players, probably, will downplay the achievement. The fans, though…

9:12	Comment From Joe On July 1, 1993, Bruce Chen was signed as an amateur free agent by the Braves. 30 days later, Jose Fernandez turned 1. Baseball!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Bruce Chen is going to be forever 32

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: He might be the most 32 player in baseball

9:12	Comment From hooha The Phillies fire Amaro in the offseason and hire you. What do you do, other than grab a cheesesteak?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Hire a team of really smart and experienced assistants and load up on short-term commitments to try to win in 2014 without ruining 2015

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t like them right now as a rebuild project, and there’s enough talent around

9:16	Comment From Jenrry mom Jenrry Mejia stuff is filthy. How long before you consider his breakout real?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: More than four starts, but I like the swing-and-miss potential of the slider he’s throwing now

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: When you combine strikeouts with grounders, you have a pitcher with a pretty high ceiling and a pretty high floor. Makes me miss a healthy Brett Anderson

9:18	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV What is Miguel Cabrera’s spirit animal?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: a freak genetic blend of all predators

9:18	Comment From my jays are red royals, royals, royals!

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: We all laughed when Dayton Moore talked about his team having the potential to win 15 of 20. They won 16 of their next 20

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: This is, obviously, something that makes us look like idiots. It’s a blow to the ego, but what’s done is done and now this is hilarious, given the precise timing

9:19	Comment From Bret It recently became a thing where Jays fans try to convince Ruben Amaro, who recently said his team will prioritize catching this offseason, that JP Arencibia, with his fantastic home runs and RBIs, is his perfect man. Will it work?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Ruben Amaro probably isn’t one to cave to public pressure. He’ll arrive at Arencibia independently.

9:20	Comment From Dave I don’t understand the following argument, which is the main one that Miggy supporters use in MVP discussions: Without Trout, the Angels still suck, without Miggy, the Tigers don’t make the playoffs.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Argument being that the goal is making the playoffs, and can you really have value in a season in which little is achieved? It’s an over-interpretation of “valuable”, but it’s one people really seem to cling to

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I’m having trouble coming up with a comparison. There’s already precedent for players on bad teams winning the MVP. But more importantly here, there’s already precedent for Cabrera beating Trout given nearly identical circumstances

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this leaves Trout completely discounted, but I think it’s a factor by which the voters multiply each player. So, say, if the Tigers make the playoffs, Cabrera’s value is his value, but if the Angels don’t make the playoffs, they mentally multiply Trout by 0.5 or whatever

9:24	Comment From 2ndHS I can’t remember if prospects are your area or not, but I’ll ask anyway. Have you seen any Brewers rookie league players? Some of them are really hard to find information on. Gian Rizzo for example.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I can answer questions about various Hillsboro Hops

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Actually I can’t, but I might be able to soon

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Generally speaking, there are smarter prospect guys to ask prospect questions to. I’m just an idiot they gave a chat login

9:25	Comment From my jays are red how many times did you rewatch the iglesias gif?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t tell if I like the .gif or the video highlight more

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Hawk Harrelson was sadly absent from the White Sox broadcast at the time, as whoever the other guy is was talking to a representative for White Sox fantasy camp

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I need to know what Harrelson would’ve said about that play

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: if he would’ve said anything

9:27	Comment From Gobias Industries Who is having a better season, Darvish or Scherzer?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Darvish by the most insignificant of hairs

9:27	Comment From Truth Totally irrelevant to anything but would you rather have given Hamilton’s 5/125 to him or Torii?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Hamilton, because Hunter’s way older

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Better question: what about now?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: …still Hamilton. But it’s closer, even though Hunter is 38

9:28	Comment From Godd Till Hi Jeff. What is the OPS baseline Iglesias has to stay above to be an above-average SS? And can he do it?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve thought about this a bunch without actually running any numbers

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: let’s say we want Iglesias to be a …3-WAR player over 600 plate appearances

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say he’s a…+20 defender, right now. Maybe 15 but this isn’t going to matter much

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: we’ll ignore baserunning even though Iglesias is probably all right

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: okay, it’s been a while. But basically, Iglesias could be 15 runs below average with the bat per 600 PA

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Right now, that’s almost exactly Andrelton Simmons level

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Simmons is at -15 runs/600 PA with a 77 wRC+

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: .283 wOBA, .644 OPS

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Iglesias can’t be an offensive nightmare, but he can be pretty bad and still be pretty good

9:35	Comment From rusty What’s a reasonable upper bound on true-talent UZR (by position), considering the crazy numbers we’re seeing for Simmons, Iglesias, Machado, Arenado, etc?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Dave and I actually talked about this a little bit last night after the Iglesias play

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I think we agree that the upper bound is about +20, in terms of true talent

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Very, very few players can get there, but right now we seem to have an abundance of riches

9:36	Comment From G-Rad Sizemore What I am worth to teams, this offseason?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: like basically nothing

9:36	Comment From RNC What do the mariners do with all their 1B/DH types?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Morse goes, Morales stays, Smoak stays, Ibanez I have no idea

9:36

Comment From juan pierres mustache
did you see the JJ Putz pitch interrupted by a Motley Crue noise from the stadium PA? Any other great moments in stadium sound board operation that you can recall? I’ve watched that seven times so far today and require some variety. http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=29604209

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t recall anything that good

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Going to have to decide what to do with this when it comes time for Friday’s Worst Of The Best

9:37	Comment From Bird Seems like Justin Upton is back for the time being, and with Heyward getting hot, Braves will be very tough in the postseason.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: And if Upton’s demonstrated anything, it’s that you can always count on him to supply a consistent, elite-level performance

9:39

Comment From Erik
Jeff, I’ve been obsessed with RE24 lately. Read a lot of Tango’s descriptions of why it’s a valuable tool in the saber toolbox. Why isn’t it a more widely-discussed and widely-used statistic? And why isn’t it a better measurement for something like MVP or Cy Young than WAR or baseball card stats?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/get-to-know-re24/

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: For award consideration, if you’re already given credit for context, you might as well go all the way and look at WPA

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: For regular, everyday use, it isn’t as predictive as other numbers, or as reflective of a guy’s true talent. Because it incorporates the various base states. There’s also the matter of how complicated it is to understand and explain — it’s going to go over a lot of heads, especially with a more general audience, and we simply don’t need to do that. Other numbers are explained much easier

9:41	Comment From Mark if Cabrera also wins the “Runs” category does he win the Quadruple Crown?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: No, too many crowns

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: You’re being ridiculous

9:42	Comment From Buddy Probability the Mariners have 3 new starting outfielders to begin next season–

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: High, but they might not be finished with Michael Saunders

9:42	Comment From Maxamuz More likely to happen? You killing a kitten or Pirates collapsing down the stretch and not making the playoffs.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Me killing a kitten. I drive a lot, and cats are everywhere in this neighborhood

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, I’ve done it before, so what’s to stop me from doing it again? They dart out from behind parked cars. There are so many parked cars!

9:43	Comment From John What do you think Halladay does if he does indeed come back after 2 rehab starts?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: show enough glimpses

9:44	Comment From Ben Would you rather be a fan of the Astros or the White Sox?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Right now, Astros, but I probably wouldn’t actually watch them until next April

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: maybe I’d go do the PCT

9:45	Comment From Guest Should we expect to see a better/different Gerrit Cole in the future? I.e. Next season?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: yes

9:45	Comment From Daniel ESPN says the Royals have a 26.2% chance of making the postseason. Does that seem like an accurate estimate?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: We can break that down further:

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: 5.9% division, 20.2% one-game playoff http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?sn=2013&i=1

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: That seems about right to me. They’re four out of the wild card right now, and there are three teams above them

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: And then you can get into the whole argument about whether or not the one-game playoff really counts as the playoffs

9:47	Comment From TanyonSturtze If you legit made Miguel Cabrera hit with one leg up on one of those injured-people leg scooters, could he loft a single?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: He could do more than that, but he’d have trouble clearing the inside pitch like he likes

9:48	Comment From Nick What kind of contract will/should Josh Johnson get this offseason? I assume he’s a bounce-back candidate?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: pillowwwwwwwwwww

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: You’re always a bounceback candidate when your ERA- is 60 points higher than your xFIP-. Look for Johnson to get a somewhat expensive one-year deal, and look for him to be very much improved

9:49	Comment From Gila Monster Thought on Josh Willingham going forward? Will he be any good?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be okay, and this is probably the last time this season that I’ll think about Josh Willingham

9:50	Comment From Ayn Rand Was Probably Wrong In the event of a three-way tie for the second wild card position, we would all have lots of fun, right?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Why not extend to a four-way tie for both wild-card positions?

9:50	Comment From Isaac Better group: Jeter, Arod, Alex Gonzalez, Renteria, and Ordonez OR Simmons, Igelsias, Machado, Gregorious and Andrus? Also, which group looks better with their shirts off?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: First group, second group

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I take that back. First group, first group http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/multimedia/photo_gallery/0910/derek.jeter.off.the.field/images/00.derek-jeter.7.jpg

9:52	Comment From Buster Does Kershaw have a shot at NL MVP?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: More of a shot than he did before the Molina injury, but it still isn’t going to happen

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Well, no, that sounded too overly certain

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: It probably still isn’t going to happen, but the voters might not be thrilled by Andrew McCutchen

9:54	Comment From TKDC Is rooting for the Royals now a fireable offense at the offices of Fangraph’s?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: The whole situation is just a little bit embarrassing

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a lot to be learned about a man from how he responds to the Royals’ hot streak!

9:54	Comment From Phillip How good is Simmons, defensively? Are we just talking best in the league right now, or is he Ozzian?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Good enough to be amazing, not good enough to be clearly better than Jose Iglesias. I’m interested to see how well Simmons’ defense holds up, say, five years down the road

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Defense is kind of like fastballs — it’s got an early career peak, and Simmons is 23. Thing about Smith is how long he sustained his performance

9:56	Comment From Jair When do the Red Sox call up Bogaerts, and what happens to Middlebrooks when they do if he is doing well?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: If MIddlebrooks is doing well, the Red Sox will take their time with Bogaerts. But it looks like a matter of weeks, and Middlebrooks probably won’t be doing well

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: He wouldn’t disappear or anything — rosters are going to expand in September. But he’d be a role player/pinch-hitter

9:58	Comment From Eddie I get that same vaguely unsettling feeling from Carson that I get at the ape house at the zoo: Who’s watching who?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Carson Cistulli is a professional baseball writer

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Think about that. Think about Carson Cistulli, and think about his line of work.