Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/14/15

August 14, 2015

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Well, it’s this again

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It’s me moderating a live baseball chat, with you

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: You better make this week count, because next week I’m gone!

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: (And then I’m back. I’m not quitting FanGraphs.)

9:16	Comment From adam good riddance

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: kisses!

9:16	Comment From Mike Marcus Stroman! Last week it was Adam Loewen pitcher extraordinaire, now this. Can we get a shout out for medical science?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Way to go, science! And way to go, Stroman, who’s earned this, with all of his work. Also with his youth, which means he heals quickly, although that’s not really anything Stroman did. It’s not because of him he hasn’t aged faster.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Of course, because of the Gallardo example, this isn’t unprecedented, but it’s pretty damned exciting.

9:18	Comment From steve Shields for Sandoval doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Padres but Kemp for Sandoval does. How come no one brings that idea up?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anybody wants to touch Matt Kemp right now, whereas Shields and Sandoval are both obviously overpaid but by only smaller amounts, relative to what they’d get on the market

9:19	Comment From JL21 Just for grins, I looked on FanGraphs and subtracted every team’s ERA from their FIP going all the way back to 1900. There are 2,430 teams in the sample… and this year’s Cardinals have the 11th highest discrepancy between FIP and ERA. OUT OF 2,430.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I was actually going to write about this yesterday, until I woke up and realized Ben Lindbergh just had, at Grantland. So I abandoned the plan because there wasn’t any point in redundancy

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: In 2013, they hit like crazy with runners on base. In 2015, they pitch like crazy with runners on base. No reason to think it’s a real skill of theirs. No reason to think this is going to be their new normal. I know it’s hard to believe in luck sustaining on a team level for four and a half months. But, here we are. It’s beautiful nonsense.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Or, for fans of rival teams, ugly stupid nonsense.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals know just what to do, and how often to do it, to convince people they’re magic.

9:23	Comment From Kris hey jeff, why would the braves field offers on julio teheran this offseason? seems like a pretty sell-low move

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: It’s only selling low if you figure this is a trough. If you think he’s only going to continue to get worse, it’s almost like selling high. Not saying that’s the case with Teheran, but the Braves sold Wood and Peraza because they viewed them as declining assets. Maybe they don’t love Teheran’s bounceback potential.

9:24	Comment From Ricks Do the Jays make it 12 in a row tonight?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: At home, with David Price? 60/40 yes

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe 65/35

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Without lineups, we have it at 59/41 http://www.fangraphs.com/li…

9:25	Comment From James G Think Reyes goes anywhere?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Feeling like more of an offseason thing. He hasn’t done anything in Colorado yet, and I’m sure they’d like to see him get hot.

9:25	Comment From Dubya When can we stick a fork in the NL East?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s just say you can go ahead and open the drawer. Step 1.

9:26	Comment From timeforguinness how many wins would a team have consisting of the ’15 cardinals pitching and the ’15 bluejays offense?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s cheat and do some really simple math. Jays at 5.3 runs/game. Cardinals allowing 2.93 runs/game.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: You’d expect a winning percentage of about 75%, or a final record of 121-41

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Now, there are a bunch of other considerations — ballpark effects, defense, sequencing, league effects, etc — but I know you’re not asking about the true talents. At current rates, the team would be a juggernaut

9:30	Comment From tawmy Is Xander Bogaerts’s declining plate discipline a concern?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not good at all

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Since the beginning of May, he’s got 10 walks and 57 strikeouts. No home-run power to speak of. The batting average is carried by an elevated BABIP. This isn’t the hitter Bogaerts was supposed to be

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: To his credit, he’s getting more done to the opposite field, but hopefully this is a transition state, and not the finished product

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Huge change: last year, Bogaerts pulled two-thirds of his grounders. This year, he’s at 44%. I’m sure this has been quite visible to Red Sox fans, but it’s pretty staggering

9:35

Comment From Trouser Pants
Hey Jeff! So, in his last two starts, against Houston and Baltimore, Chris Bassitt induced 19 and 15 swinging strikes respectively. That’s a 16% whiff rate. I know those are both whiff-happy teams, but you can’t fluke that, can you? Should we start taking Bassitt seriously?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: This is going to come out kind of harsh, but I remember, after like two or three weeks of the season or so, the league’s lowest contact rate allowed was being posted by Jason Marquis

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: So this can actually be sort of fluked. Some of it is skill, but Bassitt has never really demonstrated awesome swing-and-miss stuff. In the minors, he’s been around average. In the majors, he’s been around average. Probably going to be around average

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: He seems like an adequate pitcher, so in that sense he’s real, but I don’t think he’s special

9:37	Comment From Kevin As a Mariner fan, I don’t understand why anyone intentionally picks 3 miserable seasons (in your 4 year Q). I want daily WATCHABLE games and a constant feeling of hope. Mariners lose those around June…

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: People just have different perspectives. Within the year, absolutely, you want the success, the reason to keep watching. But I think it’s about more than just the four years. When those four years are over, you’ll remember the championship season forever. The good seasons that end in the ALDS or whatever — they fade. The championship feels like a mission fully accomplished.

9:39	Comment From adam when do you begin to worry about singleton

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: A few years ago, when he couldn’t make consistent contact

9:40	Comment From Burt Jesus Montero has been worth 0.6 WAR more this yaer than Logan Morrison, and hasn’t looked like a disaster in the field. Looking forward to seeing Lomo in the lineup tonight.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Montero has started 8 of the last 12 games

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: (In those games, he has 0 walks)

9:41	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her Hi Jeff! What do you see in Rendon for next year. This year obviously a ton of injury issues, but do you think he will be up to task next year?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Healthy Rendon is excellent. Not-healthy Rendon is sub-excellent. Rendon has forever been followed by injury questions. This year has done nothing to quell those. Proceed in accordance with your personal risk tolerance

9:43	Comment From Will Who would win in a 7 game series between a team of Ben Reveres and a team of Prince Fielders

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: The Revere team would constantly make contact and the Fielder team would never get him out. I vote Team Revere

9:44	Comment From Paul Hi Jeff, Brandon Crawford has a career year; the issue is that Fangraphs says he’s worth 3.8 WAR whereas BBref says he is worth 5.6 WAR! I don’t think I have ever seen such a wide margin … 1.8 WAR is really large. How come is the defense valuation so different?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Really don’t know why DRS sees him as +18 and UZR sees +3. This is exactly why people have issues with WAR and it’s not like there’s a good response. Granted, most defensive disagreements are of a far smaller magnitude than this, but as long as these gaps exist, we just have to throw up our hands. Crawford has been some kind of excellent. The error bar around his excellence is big

9:46	Comment From L. Scott Hi Jeff! Does the fact that Alex Rodriguez came back from a drug suspension make him ineligible for Comeback Player of the Year?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: http://nypost.com/2015/04/2…

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: He’s eligible

9:49	Comment From Kim How many teams do you think would pinch run with Logan Morrison?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Three times! He’s done it three times! In two weeks!

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: All for three different players. It’s extraordinary.

9:50

Comment From Aron
Let’s say the Mariners take advantage of their weak upcoming opponents and go 12-5 through the rest of the month and get back to .500. Maybe Paxton comes back. Maybe Nelson Cruz doesn’t go a day without hitting a home run. Maybe Mike Trout gets hurt. Maybe something happens to every other team in front of us. Maybe

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Playoff odds of 5.6%. It’s not nothing. 6.5 back of the wild card. It’s basically not going to happen, but it’s right on the threshold of interesting enough you might as well hold on to hope. Because, why not?

9:52	Comment From Josh G Is Trevor Plouffe worth a QO?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Trevor Plouffe is in his fourth year of service

9:52	Comment From Josh G I know there’s work being done to include pitch framing metrics in WAR for catchers, but what about blocking pitches in the dirt and stolen base prevention? Has there been any attempt to quantify this data?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: We have stolen-base prevention in the metric. We used to have pitch-blocking, too, until this year — don’t know where that went, but it’s been thoroughly researched.

9:53	Comment From Larry If someone asked you if you like JZ, would your first thought be Jack Z, or Jay-Z

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Jay-Z

9:55	Comment From Kiko Best upside of Brewers young 3, Nelson, Jungmann or Peralta?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I guess…Jungmann? But Nelson is probably the most likely to reach his upside

9:56	Comment From Mike Jeff, is there fire activity in your area? We are smoked out here in BC and hiking is negatively affected 🙁

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, Portland isn’t on fire or anything, but stargazing the other night was impacted by forest fires, made bad by dry conditions and this week’s thunderstorms and wind. Fire on Crater Lake, fire on Mt Jefferson, fire on Mt Adams…

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: So far, Mt Hood is surviving

9:58	Comment From Yo, Cespedes! Agree with Steve on Kemp Sox deal. But why not Kemp-Hanley?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I…don’t really know. I don’t know why either team would want to do that. Both assets suck and are similar.

9:59	Comment From Andrew All of a sudden the Mets division odds are at 66%. Was it last night’s games that suddenly made such a big difference, or did something else happen I wasn’t aware of?