Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/14/15

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Well, it’s this again

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: It’s me moderating a live baseball chat, with you

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: You better make this week count, because next week I’m gone!

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: (And then I’m back. I’m not quitting FanGraphs.)

9:16
Comment From adam
good riddance

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: kisses!

9:16
Comment From Mike
Marcus Stroman! Last week it was Adam Loewen pitcher extraordinaire, now this. Can we get a shout out for medical science?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Way to go, science! And way to go, Stroman, who’s earned this, with all of his work. Also with his youth, which means he heals quickly, although that’s not really anything Stroman did. It’s not because of him he hasn’t aged faster.

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Of course, because of the Gallardo example, this isn’t unprecedented, but it’s pretty damned exciting.

9:18
Comment From steve
Shields for Sandoval doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Padres but Kemp for Sandoval does. How come no one brings that idea up?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anybody wants to touch Matt Kemp right now, whereas Shields and Sandoval are both obviously overpaid but by only smaller amounts, relative to what they’d get on the market

9:19

Comment From JL21
Just for grins, I looked on FanGraphs and subtracted every team’s ERA from their FIP going all the way back to 1900.

There are 2,430 teams in the sample… and this year’s Cardinals have the 11th highest discrepancy between FIP and ERA. OUT OF 2,430.

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: I was actually going to write about this yesterday, until I woke up and realized Ben Lindbergh just had, at Grantland. So I abandoned the plan because there wasn’t any point in redundancy

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: In 2013, they hit like crazy with runners on base. In 2015, they pitch like crazy with runners on base. No reason to think it’s a real skill of theirs. No reason to think this is going to be their new normal. I know it’s hard to believe in luck sustaining on a team level for four and a half months. But, here we are. It’s beautiful nonsense.

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Or, for fans of rival teams, ugly stupid nonsense.

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals know just what to do, and how often to do it, to convince people they’re magic.

9:23
Comment From Kris
hey jeff, why would the braves field offers on julio teheran this offseason? seems like a pretty sell-low move

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: It’s only selling low if you figure this is a trough. If you think he’s only going to continue to get worse, it’s almost like selling high. Not saying that’s the case with Teheran, but the Braves sold Wood and Peraza because they viewed them as declining assets. Maybe they don’t love Teheran’s bounceback potential.

9:24
Comment From Ricks
Do the Jays make it 12 in a row tonight?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: At home, with David Price? 60/40 yes

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe 65/35

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Without lineups, we have it at 59/41 http://www.fangraphs.com/li…

9:25
Comment From James G
Think Reyes goes anywhere?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Feeling like more of an offseason thing. He hasn’t done anything in Colorado yet, and I’m sure they’d like to see him get hot.

9:25
Comment From Dubya
When can we stick a fork in the NL East?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s just say you can go ahead and open the drawer. Step 1.

9:26
Comment From timeforguinness
how many wins would a team have consisting of the ’15 cardinals pitching and the ’15 bluejays offense?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s cheat and do some really simple math. Jays at 5.3 runs/game. Cardinals allowing 2.93 runs/game.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: You’d expect a winning percentage of about 75%, or a final record of 121-41

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Now, there are a bunch of other considerations — ballpark effects, defense, sequencing, league effects, etc — but I know you’re not asking about the true talents. At current rates, the team would be a juggernaut

9:30
Comment From tawmy
Is Xander Bogaerts’s declining plate discipline a concern?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not good at all

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Since the beginning of May, he’s got 10 walks and 57 strikeouts. No home-run power to speak of. The batting average is carried by an elevated BABIP. This isn’t the hitter Bogaerts was supposed to be

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: To his credit, he’s getting more done to the opposite field, but hopefully this is a transition state, and not the finished product

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Huge change: last year, Bogaerts pulled two-thirds of his grounders. This year, he’s at 44%. I’m sure this has been quite visible to Red Sox fans, but it’s pretty staggering

9:35
Comment From Trouser Pants
Hey Jeff! So, in his last two starts, against Houston and Baltimore, Chris Bassitt induced 19 and 15 swinging strikes respectively. That’s a 16% whiff rate. I know those are both whiff-happy teams, but you can’t fluke that, can you? Should we start taking Bassitt seriously?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: This is going to come out kind of harsh, but I remember, after like two or three weeks of the season or so, the league’s lowest contact rate allowed was being posted by Jason Marquis

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: So this can actually be sort of fluked. Some of it is skill, but Bassitt has never really demonstrated awesome swing-and-miss stuff. In the minors, he’s been around average. In the majors, he’s been around average. Probably going to be around average

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: He seems like an adequate pitcher, so in that sense he’s real, but I don’t think he’s special

9:37
Comment From Kevin
As a Mariner fan, I don’t understand why anyone intentionally picks 3 miserable seasons (in your 4 year Q). I want daily WATCHABLE games and a constant feeling of hope. Mariners lose those around June…

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: People just have different perspectives. Within the year, absolutely, you want the success, the reason to keep watching. But I think it’s about more than just the four years. When those four years are over, you’ll remember the championship season forever. The good seasons that end in the ALDS or whatever — they fade. The championship feels like a mission fully accomplished.

9:39
Comment From adam
when do you begin to worry about singleton

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: A few years ago, when he couldn’t make consistent contact

9:40
Comment From Burt
Jesus Montero has been worth 0.6 WAR more this yaer than Logan Morrison, and hasn’t looked like a disaster in the field. Looking forward to seeing Lomo in the lineup tonight.

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Montero has started 8 of the last 12 games

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: (In those games, he has 0 walks)

9:41
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Hi Jeff! What do you see in Rendon for next year. This year obviously a ton of injury issues, but do you think he will be up to task next year?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Healthy Rendon is excellent. Not-healthy Rendon is sub-excellent. Rendon has forever been followed by injury questions. This year has done nothing to quell those. Proceed in accordance with your personal risk tolerance

9:43
Comment From Will
Who would win in a 7 game series between a team of Ben Reveres and a team of Prince Fielders

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: The Revere team would constantly make contact and the Fielder team would never get him out. I vote Team Revere

9:44
Comment From Paul
Hi Jeff, Brandon Crawford has a career year; the issue is that Fangraphs says he’s worth 3.8 WAR whereas BBref says he is worth 5.6 WAR! I don’t think I have ever seen such a wide margin … 1.8 WAR is really large. How come is the defense valuation so different?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Really don’t know why DRS sees him as +18 and UZR sees +3. This is exactly why people have issues with WAR and it’s not like there’s a good response. Granted, most defensive disagreements are of a far smaller magnitude than this, but as long as these gaps exist, we just have to throw up our hands. Crawford has been some kind of excellent. The error bar around his excellence is big

9:46
Comment From L. Scott
Hi Jeff! Does the fact that Alex Rodriguez came back from a drug suspension make him ineligible for Comeback Player of the Year?

9:46
9:47
Jeff Sullivan: He’s eligible

9:49
Comment From Kim
How many teams do you think would pinch run *with* Logan Morrison?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Three times! He’s done it three times! In two weeks!

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: All for three different players. It’s extraordinary.

9:50
Comment From Aron
Let’s say the Mariners take advantage of their weak upcoming opponents and go 12-5 through the rest of the month and get back to .500. Maybe Paxton comes back. Maybe Nelson Cruz doesn’t go a day without hitting a home run. Maybe Mike Trout gets hurt. Maybe something happens to every other team in front of us. Maybe

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Playoff odds of 5.6%. It’s not nothing. 6.5 back of the wild card. It’s basically not going to happen, but it’s right on the threshold of interesting enough you might as well hold on to hope. Because, why not?

9:52
Comment From Josh G
Is Trevor Plouffe worth a QO?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Trevor Plouffe is in his fourth year of service

9:52
Comment From Josh G
I know there’s work being done to include pitch framing metrics in WAR for catchers, but what about blocking pitches in the dirt and stolen base prevention? Has there been any attempt to quantify this data?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: We have stolen-base prevention in the metric. We used to have pitch-blocking, too, until this year — don’t know where that went, but it’s been thoroughly researched.

9:53
Comment From Larry
If someone asked you if you like JZ, would your first thought be Jack Z, or Jay-Z

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Jay-Z

9:55
Comment From Kiko
Best upside of Brewers young 3, Nelson, Jungmann or Peralta?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: I guess…Jungmann? But Nelson is probably the most likely to reach his upside

9:56
Comment From Mike
Jeff, is there fire activity in your area? We are smoked out here in BC and hiking is negatively affected 🙁

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, Portland isn’t on fire or anything, but stargazing the other night was impacted by forest fires, made bad by dry conditions and this week’s thunderstorms and wind. Fire on Crater Lake, fire on Mt Jefferson, fire on Mt Adams…

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: So far, Mt Hood is surviving

9:58
Comment From Yo, Cespedes!
Agree with Steve on Kemp Sox deal. But why not Kemp-Hanley?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: I…don’t really know. I don’t know why either team would want to do that. Both assets suck and are similar.

9:59
Comment From Andrew
All of a sudden the Mets division odds are at 66%. Was it last night’s games that suddenly made such a big difference, or did something else happen I wasn’t aware of?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Every day, the Mets have been gaining a full game of ground on the Nationals. Three games in three days have lifted the division odds from 45% to 67%

10:00
Comment From Yo, Cespedes!
No. Panda is having brutal season, realizing all the fear about his rapid decline coming.

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: But he’s still in his 20s, and he was bad in 2010, in between strong years. More reason to believe in his bounceback

10:03
Comment From Yo, Cespedes!
What do you make of Dave (I think) saying Heyward 8/180M this winter?? OMG. Once the defense fades (and it will), he is Andre Ethier and that will be a big albatross pretty quickly. I see the Cards extending him but at no more than 6/$130M and that may be high.

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Heyward is a 26-year-old excellent defensive outfielder who’s posted a 127 wRC+ since recovering from a brutal April. He also still carries the perception of greater offensive upside. Doesn’t mean there isn’t any risk here, but he’s going to cash in like crazy

10:06
Comment From Jim
you ever gonna write at USSM again?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t feel right to me. I need some time to just observe the Mariners without writing about them much

10:07
Comment From Larry
Whats the difference between taking HGH and a platelet rich plasma injection? I mean, why is one illegal and the other isnt?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: The argument tends to be that one takes you to an unnatural level while the other is simply restorative, much like Tommy John surgery. But, yes, there is obviously a huge gray area here. Everything is in the gray area. Why Lasik? Why cortisone shots? Why is a line drawn? Why is it drawn where it is? I actually put together a whole college semester seminar on this subject once with my organic chemistry professor. We never got to a good, solid conclusion.

10:09
Comment From Kris
nats are going to miss the playoffs arent they? most disappointing 3 season stretch for a team in recent memory?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: This year, they seemed like the ultimate postseason lock. Didn’t I write an article somewhere about how the projections gave them an exceptionally massive gap between themselves and second place? The only thing that was going to sink them was injuries. Injuries have sunk them, along with the emergence of all the Mets’ arms

10:10
Comment From CAM
What did you think of Passan’s article yesterday about getting rid of divisions? Do you think that would make things more fair? Could you see MLB taking the plunge and doing something like that?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Divisions, the way we have them, are pretty stupid. Just like how it was stupid to have one four-team division and one six-team division. What the hell was that about? Divisions ought to go away, if anyone can figure out a way to resolve travel concerns. And once we have baseball without divisions for a few years, we’ll wonder what we were thinking for the first century+

10:12
Comment From Guesto
Jose Reyes ends up playing in NY (Mets or Yankees) by the season’s end. T/F?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: nah

10:13
Comment From Josh G
What are your thoughts on Raisel Iglesias? He looks like he has a chance to be a nice building block for the Reds.

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Interesting, but currently can’t do crap against lefties

10:15
Comment From Terrible Ted
Yesterday at noon the Jays WS odds were at 12%. They won and their odds went to 11.5%. How are these odds calculated?

10:15
10:16
Jeff Sullivan: We run 10,000 sims and report the results. If we ran 100,000 or 1,000,000, the level of noise would be reduced, but that takes too long to do. So currently there’s some noise to go with the signal, and you should take all the reported odds as an estimate

10:16
Comment From Larry
Will Ian desmond accept a QO from washington, or has is mildly warmer 2nd half set him up for a big long term deal?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: If he carries this through the rest of the year, he’ll get his money. If he slumps again, he’s an excellent bet to take a pillow contract and re-enter the market. Maybe he takes a QO from Washington, and gets traded. Maybe they don’t offer the QO, and he signs for a year somewhere else

10:18
Comment From Matt
Starlin’s ’15 has been an unmitigated disaster. What do you do there? Bad contract swap? Basically, give him the rest of the year off and reboot next yr as a 2B? It’d seem there is little to no trade value left.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Really wouldn’t be a complete shock to see him in San Diego. His value is lower than his contact commitment, but there’s still a fine player in there somewhere, so a team would be willing to take a chance on him

10:20
Comment From Steve
Eugenio Suarez has exceeded any reasonable expectations so far. What’s a reasonable expectation for him going forward? More BBs/higher OBP as teams respect him more/lower SLG?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t buy him as a good hitter, but he’s an adequate hitter with surprising pop, and he’s shortstop-capable with a half-decent eye. I think he could be about average for his position, and he’s cheap and 24. Fine asset for the medium-term

10:21
Comment From Darren115
Is there any chance in hell that the Yankees trade for Jose Reyes and stick him at second base while leaving Drew at the side of the road?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Well, they were already willing to take a chance on Dustin Ackley, so they’re clearly interested in improving, but a difference between Ackley and Reyes is that Ackley’s cheap and easy to ditch. Reyes has money coming through 2017. I don’t think the Yankees do it

10:22
Comment From Frank+Jobe
How much longer until the Nationals should start thinking about activating panic mode?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Well, nobody is *more* productive when in panic mode, so in that sense they should never get there, but this is a really, increasingly bad situation.

10:24
Comment From Chuck
Greg Holland toast? Hes been consistently inconsistent all year. Davis has a b ad back, can any say Ryan Madson?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: At no point this year has Holland thrown with last year’s velocity. He’s currently showing a slightly positive trend, so maybe he’s working through something mechanical, but at present Holland is not a shutdown closer. Not toast, but not the same level of dependable

10:26
Comment From ZachA
Eovaldi 2014: 6.4 K/9,16% K rate, 0.6 HR/9, 3.4 FIP, but went 6-14. Eovaldi 2015: 6.4 K/9, 16% K rate, 0.7 HR/9, 3.6 WHIP, but is 12-2. Is the W-L stat officially defeated?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: W-L will never be defeated

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: If it could be defeated by sound evidence, it would’ve died 50 years ago

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: It is impervious to our blows

10:26
Comment From Kris
what if the cardinals really are magical though

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: We’ve all thought it

10:27
Comment From Colin
Hi Jeff, what would be your WS prediction as of today?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Jays/Dodgers

10:27
Comment From Jimmy
Thanks for chatting Jeff. What do you think the Jays should do if and when Marcus Stroman comes back healthy this year?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Well, I thought he’d go to the bullpen, but apparently they’re thinking about stretching him out as a starter if he shows that he’s up to it. So, I mean, proceed like that. Maybe limit him to 80-90 pitches or whatever, but if Stroman can throw five innings at a time, why not let him do that?

10:28
Comment From Kiko
If you are already a bottom 3 team right now, do you tank for the first overall pick?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:28
Comment From guest
Just read your article on Lester. You didn’t mention that one of the stolen bases yesterday was Segura taking off for third base without even waiting for the pitch to be thrown. I’ve never seen that before. How rare is that?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Rare!

10:29
Comment From Lane
Hi! Catcher Framing is in it’s infancy. I find it very intriguing. Is there some sort of correlation between strikeout rate and a catcher’s framing abilities? Looking at Kluber this year, he has a lower K rate but a higher SwStr% than last season. Yan Gomes has been stellar at pitch framing since he entered the league. He has struggled all year. Could part of his framing struggles be a partial reason for Kluber’s K rate and season up to date? I don’t think there is enough information out there but I find catcher framing interesting. Have a good day!

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: There are relationships between catcher framing and K-BB. Given single-season samples, there’s a lot of noise, but smarter people than me have done very thorough research, and they seem to have demonstrated the legitimacy of the value. Framing isn’t all about strikeouts and walks, but it’s a big part. No reason why it *wouldn’t* be helpful

10:30
Comment From MSW
Holy crap, it’s August, the Mets are in first place, and for the first time in a long time I have nothing to complain about. I feel strange, confused. What is this?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Well, there are always the Wilpons

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: And I mean that. There will probably literally always be the Wilpons. The family is unkillable

10:31
Comment From S
My friend and I have had this debate about Buster Posey. I believe that in a few years Posey needs to be moved from catcher to first base. My friend believes that the Giants should keep Posey at catcher until his legs fall off because he thinks Posey right now is an average first baseman and will be a below average first baseman in a few years. What is your thought about Posey’s future (assuming a catastrophic injury doesn’t take out Posey)?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: He’s valuable enough as a hitter that the Giants should try to preserve that offense as he ages. Which means, probably, a gradual weaning, although for now he remains a good defensive catcher so there shouldn’t be a sense of urgency. It’ll all be determined by evaluations of his knees and hips over the years

10:33
Comment From Aaron
Do the Jays get even scarier if Encarnacion is back in the lineup today, or is it already sort of peak “holy crap power righties” without him

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: When a team has won 11 in a row, with that offense, there’s no such thing as a more intimidating perception. They’re at the max. They’re at the point where it’s impossible to imagine them losing again. But they’ll do it, several times, and after the losses, they’ll be viewed more reasonably

10:34
Comment From Guesto
What’s on Rob Manfred’s Spotify playlist?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: jazz?

10:35
Comment From Florida ron
It appears much of the Cardinal success is due to an 81% strand rate and an opponent ops with runners in scoring position of .561. It is over .700 in all other situations. Fools gold long term?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, but they’re still an excellent team by BaseRuns. Any team with such a good W/L record will have been both good and lucky.

10:36
Comment From Max
Saw your JABO article about Lester, for a guy who can throw 90+ accurately at a distance of over 60 feet, how hard can it be to learn a simpler (at least from my perspective) toss to first?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Good luck ever trying to understand the yips

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Nobody gets it. It’s the weirdest thing

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: On the encouraging side, so far this year Matt Garza has yet to commit a single throwing error.

10:37
Comment From Matt
Seems to be a lot of chatter regarding Puig not being long for LA after this season? Thoughts?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Dave has apparently spoken with people who believe Puig is a goner. Dave is connected and I am not, except for with Dave. So for industry opinion, I trust him more than I trust myself. It’s going to be a huge, huge story if/when he’s moved

10:38
Comment From Ol Sea Capn
is Jesus Montero going to finally be the savior of Seattle?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: No, but he might rescue us from Logan Morrison

10:39
Comment From ThorsHammer
Who you got: Mets playoff rotation vs. the field? Cards and Dodgers have a case I guess

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: It’s all about how the pitchers hold up. Around full strength, it doesn’t really get better than the front of the Mets’ rotation, but the Dodgers are probably tied. If the Mets wear down some, I give the Dodgers the edge

10:40
Comment From Jimmy
Who do you see as more likely to challenge for an AL WC spot – Baltimore or TB?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: I guess Rays, barely

10:41
Comment From Joe W
Does Utley to the Jays make sense?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t *not* make sense but Utley might not want to get dealt to Canada

10:42
Comment From klof
you think lester is a real #1? he’s not even the #1 on his own team anymore.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: He’s tied for 14th in pitcher WAR. Basically even with Madison Bumgarner

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Is Zack Greinke not a No. 1 because he happens to share a rotation with Clayton Kershaw?

10:43
Comment From _David_
What are the odds that the remaining games of the season impact Jack Z’s job security, one way or the other?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Well, in the event of a miracle run, obviously his job would be safe

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: But I think the games are probably not that important, considering how little they’ll do to change the overall disappointment of the season.

10:44
Comment From Shirking
Think the Ms got Kuma through waivers before the no-no?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: They’re not trading him. If anything, they’re working on re-signing him

10:44
Comment From Big Steve
In 2 years is Grichuk a 4th outfielder, solid regular, or all star?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Solid regular

10:45
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
How crazy is asking AmRam to play 1B right now? Local writers are losing their minds over it, but it doesn’t seem that big of a deal to me.

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t we kind of know this was going to happen?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Him and Morse are the two to plug in. Doesn’t seem that wild

10:48
Comment From L. Scott
Nobody seems to think the Mets will be able to sign Cespedes. However, I believe they easily can and he would practically pay for himself. TV revenue through SNY would pay his salary alone. Ratings are way up for the Mets in the biggest market in the country. Playoff revenue on top of that, and the Mets should be alble to sign him. It’s not about the total of the contract, it’s about paying it one year at a time. Do you agree that they have a better chance of signing him than most say?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Unless they absolutely blow Cespedes away, he’s not going to agree to forgo free agency this close to November. And then once he’s a free agent, he can’t re-sign with New York. I figure their odds are very low.

10:50
Comment From Rob
How much of a team’s revenue comes from ticket sales? How much impact on the bottom line does, say, 2,000 more fans per game have?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: 2,000 fans, 81 games, $100 a head — $16.2 million. At $50 a head, obviously, it’s half that. So we’re talking about a few million dollars. It matters, but it pales in comparison to other revenue sources

10:53
Comment From _David_
Say a new FO takes over in Seattle and wants to sell high on Cruz…What might be his value? How much might the situation parallel Kemp’s trade market before this season?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t really be much like Kemp, but the disadvantage would be selling Cruz in a market with Upton, Cespedes, and Heyward. Someone would be willing to take the whole contract, and maybe add more on top of that, but it wouldn’t be a huge coup for Seattle. And they’re not going to sell Cruz anyway

10:54
Comment From tgif
How much will a team give up for Chase Utley? Since he cleared waivers, I can’t imagine that a team will offer anything more than just taking the bulk of his contract.

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Phillies would be more interested in paying the contract and getting a young live arm

10:54
Comment From DOUGIE
Why haven’t the Orioles done the same thing this year that they have done in years past which allowed them to beat their projected BaseRuns record?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: this year’s Orioles are five wins *below* their pythagorean record!

10:55
Comment From Josh G
Do any GMs secretly partake in these chats?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: I sure as shit hope not

10:55
Comment From Ghost Hands
I haven’t seen a lot of Kevin Kiermaier defensively. Is he really 10 runs “better than someone like Nolan Arenado?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: He’s really awesome

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe not that awesome compared to Arenado, but he’s awesome

10:57
Comment From erik
so here’s a thing that made me cry a couple different kinds of tears: compiled all the minorleagueball lists of top 20 mariners prospects from 2006-2015 (200 names, many duplicates) and found that ONE name represents players with more than one season worth 2.2 fWAR or better for the mariners and SEVEN names represent players that are deceased. MORE OF THE MARINERS TOP PROSPECTS HAVE TRAGICALLY DIED THAN HAVE BEEN “SOLID STARTERS” FOR MULTIPLE SEASONS

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: huh

10:58
Comment From EroticWaffles
Aaron Hicks is quietly having a good season. Thoughts?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: He’s improved both of his swings and he’s become increasingly aggressive. Seems more and more like a real player, and he’s not yet 26.

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: This is why someone’ll take a chance on Jackie Bradley

11:00
Comment From Matt
Is cluster luck a thing that evens out over the course of a year? Because right now the Dodgers have the worst in baseball, and it doesn’t seem to be getting better.

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: A season isn’t a big enough sample to expect these things to always even out. Look at this year’s Cardinals, or the 2013 Cardinals. It basically isn’t predictive at all, but the Dodgers aren’t going to get back to even in a month and a half

11:01
Comment From david
What are your thoughts on Correa?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Awesome. Top-20 player. Maybe top-10 player.

11:01
Comment From Jon+Trollosi
who wins the al east for you? yankees or blue jays?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Jays

11:02
Comment From Cory S.
Is Progressive Field becoming a nice HR park, or is it just the Indians SP?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like a roughly average dinger park

11:02
Comment From Matt
Does Billy Beane go for it again in 2016, or does he sell guys like Reddick and Chavez (perhaps even Vogt) in hopes of a better future?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: I think, for him, it’s always about the next-closest year. Once 2015 wasn’t going to work, he started mentally shifting to 2016.

11:03
Comment From Jon+Trollosi
Chances of David Price returning to Toronto this offseason?

11:03
Comment From Slew (Seattle)
Should the Indians try to compete next year, or should they blow it up?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Really low

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Compete, dammit!

11:03
Comment From JLC21
Jeff, curious how Fangraphs projections handle things like Springer coming off the DL eventually and McCullers/Velasquez coming back from the minors eventually. IE, will the Astros “look” better when those guys are officially back?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: We project estimates of their future playing time. The projections you see aren’t just based on the current active rosters. Obviously that means there’s some guesswork

11:05
Comment From Sam
Cardinals fan here. This past series is the first time I’ve really noticed Gregory Polanco really hitting the ball well. I went back to look at his peripherals since July and it seems to back it up. All the series he was hitting the ball, hitting it hard, and spraying it to all fields. Should I now start to worry about him for years to come?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t yet done a deep dive on Polanco, but it might be about time. He’s hit the ball in the air more and more as the season’s gone on, and the contact’s been good, and the discipline’s improving. You don’t want to overreact to a hot stretch but Polanco is young enough and talented enough that this might be his leap, or the beginning of it

11:07
Comment From Kevin
The ALDS seasons might fade, but the impression left behind will be POSITIVE ones. Like reflecting on a good relationship that didn’t work out. Might not remember individual dates, but you’ll remember feeling happy and content

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Again, I don’t think there’s any convincing here. People are where they are and it’s entirely about individual opinion. Some people value championships more highly than others do. No wrong way to follow a sport

11:09
Comment From will
is there a way you can see WAR accumulated over a stretch in the leaderboards? as in: most WAR over a 30-game span

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry! Nope. Just the most recent 30-day span.

11:10
Comment From guest
I straight up don’t trust WAR because of all the defensive fluctuation

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: As always, I recommend WAR as a starting point, and then you can customize from there to your taste.

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I’m experiencing increasing connection problems, so this seems like a good time to stop

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again in…two weeks! at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/14/15 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Moonshadow
Guest
Moonshadow

If someone thinks they can explain the Dodgers going to trade low on Yasiel Puig thing this winter, please go ahead and illuminate…

Teej
Guest
Teej

Teams sell low on guys all the time, especially if they’ve soured on them. They very well might not believe they’re selling low.