Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/18/17

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: If Cistuli wrote your chat intro, what would it be?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Long and pointless

9:08	J: Are the Yankees or Red Sox better on paper? Yanks have the better baseruns record but Sox are better by the projections.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Red Sox are the better baseball team, but the Yankee bullpen is seemingly so very deep that they probably have some form of postseason advantage

9:09	The Average Sports Fan: So the Cards might be losing Wainwright for a while. Perhaps the Cubs lose Lester for a period as well. Could it be that things are lining up for the Brewers?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: So, on the one hand, well, Wainwright hasn’t been very good for a while

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: And the Brewers have already had their equivalent by going without Chase Anderson

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Brewers are going to win that division. That being said, I love that it’s still so close, and that the Cubs haven’t been able to pull away, like I assumed they would. I figure the Cubs will still take it, but this race is better for baseball as it is

9:11	JD15: Which player makes the biggest impact in this years’ playoffs that is not currently on their playoff team’s roster? (Ex. a guy that is a waiver trade or minor league call up)

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: That’s tricky. Walker Buehler out of the bullpen?

9:12	Babe Lincoln: Is there any relationship between a pitcher’s zone% and the O-swing% that pitcher induces? As in, does a pitcher pounding the zone result in more (or fewer) swings outside the zone?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Out of qualified pitchers this season, the R^2 between O-Swing% and Zone% is 0.05

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: So, not much of a relationship to speak of. It’s one of those case-by-case-basis things. It’s not a coincidence, for example, that Tanaka has such a high O-Swing%, and such a low Zone%. That’s a reflection of his command and secondary stuff

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: But then, it’s also not a coincidence that Wade Miley has a low O-Swing% and Zone%. He just isn’t very good

9:15	Daniel: What’s the furthest you’ve traveled to solo hike/camp?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Everything international to this point has been with company. I’ve spent stretches by myself in like eastern and central Oregon, but that’s about it

9:16	Zonk: Hopes were high for Jason Heyward coming into this year, but he’s turned in another poor offensive performance so far. Is there any hope, or is he broken? Will that contract prove regrettable?

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: Any hope is tied up in the fact that he’s 28 years old, and he still makes a lot of contact. The physical abilities remain, so Heyward remains intriguing. But, obviously, there’s even less hope for him now than there was last March. The Cubs would like to back out of this if they could, I’m certain

9:19	Xolo: It seems like the power that scouts thought Margot wasn’t going to be able to tap into has been tapped. Do you think he could be a 20 homer guy?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: As you can imagine, this is a problem — scouts made their evaluations under certain circumstances, and now home runs in the majors are everywhere. *Everyone* can hit home runs. Jarrod Dyson has hit home runs. Scouts aren’t accustomed to balls flying like this, and it’s not easy to project big-league power when you’re watching minor leaguers hitting different balls in different environments

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I can say that, based on the evidence, major-league Margot is not very powerful, relative to his peers. But, 20 home runs? Scooter Gennett has 20 home runs. So Manny Margot could hit 20 home runs.

9:21	CamdenWarehouse: Do you ever get questions in the chat where someone was obviously in the wrong window when typing and accidentally sent you something related to their jobs?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Not yet, but this is why I get up on Friday mornings

9:22	Kris: Should the Braves call up Acuna this year?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I prefer a world in which the answer is yes, but if the answer ends up being no, the Braves will have objectively justifiable reasons

9:22	E: Inspired by your recent Albert Pujols article, do you know off the top of your head who has struck out the most times in their career?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t, but I bet that player is in the Hall of Fame

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Is it Jim Thome?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: It’s Reggie Jackson!

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Confirmed Hall-of-Famer Reggie Jackson

9:24	Marwin Gonzales- Power Hitter: If it wasn’t for Ellsbury last year, Josh Reddick would have a chance at the catcher’s interference record. I believe he has 7 this year.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: You’re correct! He’s one away from the previous single-season record

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: People don’t seem to hold onto 8 catcher’s interferences the way they hold onto 61 home runs

9:26	The Average Sports Fan: What would need to go right for the Reds to be a legit 85-90 win team next year?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Every single thing their pitching coach has ever attempted

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Their staff is a mess. They need some sort of overhaul because they can’t turn any pitchers into anything

9:26	Road Trip Ideas: Maybe Sam and Ben can help you come up with a book idea

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Still not sure writing a book is a good idea in the first place. It sounds like it’s horrible

9:27	Q-Ball: Setback for Yasmany Tomas, but does it really matter? Are the D-Backs better without him in the OF?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: They could use him off the bench, but yeah, they’re better without him playing defense

9:27	Zock Jr.: Jeff, who’s the better hitter for the BoSox ROS: Devers or Mookie?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Mookie

9:28	GraphsFan: Fielding metrics are the hardest to quantify and understand. Is there a sliding scale of plays made on balls in play? I.e. An 80 grade fielder makes a certain play 50% of the time, a 70 grade fielder makes the play 30% of the time, 60 grade 10%, etc etc.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: It’s fun to play around with this https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Hot tip: that leaderboard is a great way to prevent yourself from being too disappointed in Byron Buxton

9:29	BJOGC: I know that he won’t win a MVP but hypothetically speaking, how would you react IF Max Schrock one day wins a MVP award?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I’d have some post written about how while Schrock was good, it should’ve been Mike Trout

9:30	Brian: How have your thoughts on the free agent deals that Machado and Harper will get changed from before this season started to now?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Not much change. Teams are smart enough to look beyond Machado’s surface numbers, and Harper, once again, has been a productive player with an injury issue. They’re going to strike it mighty rich, as has been assumed

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Machado hasn’t taken his Trout turn yet, but he remains no less intriguing than he was

9:31	I-5 Buddies: I have to commute south for work along I-5. Not looking forward to monday. Maybe I’ll be stuck next to you guys for a few hours.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe we’ll have you on as a podcast guest through the window

9:31	Q-Ball: Is the Knuckleball dying? Why don’t more fringe velo guys in the minors give it a shot?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: They do. They suck. It’s hard

9:32	Bryan: Cubs are 5-5 in their last 10 and 75% into the season. At what point do we start to acknowledge that the Cubs team this year isn’t the team from last year and aren’t very good?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Well, I think we can say they’re not the team from last year. The team from last year was one of the all-time best

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: But this year’s Cubs have the same BaseRuns record as the Red Sox. This Cubs team is still good. It is underachieving but it is still good

9:34	Brian: Joey Votto and Anthony Rizzo both choke up on the bat and do so extremely with 2 strikes. Barry Bonds also choked up on the bat. Why dont more hitters do this in the high strikeout era? Could choking up be the next fly ball revolution?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I doubt it. Choking up isn’t glamorous. And the three players you’ve cited are different levels of elite. Many other hitters wouldn’t have a prayer of being so successful

9:35	kyle: is there a place you can look up how many times a particular player has faced an infield shift?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Kind of. We have stats on leaderboards and player pages about balls in play hit into a shift, which is a half-decent proxy.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not perfect, but it’s better than nothing

9:36	Rudy L: Kyle Seager just isn’t that good, is he? Has he passed his peak? I’d rank him no better than an average 3B.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Well, third base as a position is incredibly deep. But Kyle Seager is still good

9:37	Shaemus: The twins might make the playoffs, despite selling at the deadline. How crazy is this?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: 7/10 crazy. It would be crazier if a team had to be actually good to claim the second wild-card position. This year it doesn’t seem like that’s going to be true

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: The Angels are our current favorites to win ALWC2, and their projected record is 82-80

9:38	Q-Ball: As time passes, I become more in favor of Robo Umps for the strike zone. What’s your take?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: I’ve experienced the opposite. I used to be a lot more inflexible than I am now. Five or seven years ago, I knew what I wanted, and what I wanted was an automated strike zone. Now I don’t mind the strike zone as it is, but remember I’m not coming from the same fan standpoint as most of y’all. So I don’t have the same emotional investment. Plus, I regard the automated strike zone as inevitable, and I won’t be upset when it’s finally implemented

9:40	Harry: How do you deal with nuisance sasquatches while hiking?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve learned from television commercials to just not try to prank them

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Never prank a sasquatch

9:41	kyle: Joe mauer HoF? historically great catcher pre concussion historically light hitting first baseman post concussion.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Right now I don’t think he’ll make it, but he’s going to end up as one of those borderline guys who’s written about a lot. It’s going to come down to how the future voting pool decides to handle catchers, with whatever new data is made available

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, Mauer has a way higher career fWAR than Yadier Molina, who a lot of people think will make it. Molina will get tons of credit for leadership stuff that Mauer will miss out on, but the point is, there will be a case

9:42	mmddyyyy: If every team had drafted an Otani last year, how many would have been traded this year?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe one. Teams hold onto those guys

9:43	Shaemus: I really like watching the Padres. Am I crazy?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: No, you’re not crazy

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: You’re probably weird to hang out with, but you’re not crazy

9:45	Nats fan: Can you compare Treinen and Kintzler for this year (ignoring contract status. Did we get basically the same pitcher with very divergent results?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Treinen traffics more in getting hitters to miss. As a result, he gets into deeper counts, and he ends up with more walks. Kintzler feels like he’s more in control, even if his results aren’t likely to be much better in the end

9:46	Daniel: Hey Jeff, how would teams go about valuing the international dollars available to them?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: There’s some kind of analysis to be run on all the trades so far that have involved international money. Seems like the exchange rate is kind of like $1 of international money = $3 – 4 of regular money

9:47	Jay: What kind of shot does Paul Goldschmidt have to be a Hall of Famer?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Like Joey Votto, Goldschmidt technically started a little late

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Like Joey Votto, he’s been elite ever since

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Unlike Joey Votto, he’s 29, with 20 fewer WAR

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: It’s far from obvious that Votto will be a Hall-of-Famer. Goldschmidt himself still has a ways to go. It’s probable that Votto’s initial years of eligibility will be telling, but for right now, Goldschmidt is worse than a 50/50 shot

9:49	v2micca: As if we weren’t already going to be comparing them for the rest of their lives, Mike Trout, homerun number 150. Age 24 years 295 days. Bryce Harper, homerun number 150. Age 24 years 295 days.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I enjoy that fun fact

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Also, Mike Trout is much much better

9:49	Absurd Questioner: I know you don’t write about college basketball, but Fangraphs may need a bracketologist for the AL Wild Card. How crazy are any of these teams to be thinking about buying before 8/31?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a difference between aggressive buying and opportunistic tweaking

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: It would be dumb for any of these teams to sacrifice something of value. It would not be dumb to add a veteran or two for the stretch run

9:52	Zonk: For the 2nd year in a row, Bryant has significantly cut his K-Rate, to a current 19%. While he is not an MVP candidate this year, is he setting-up better for a long run with this? Or, do you think he traded some power for contact?

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: I think Bryant is a little unsettled for now. Some of his trends are good, but then, he’s also lost a big chunk off his hard-hit rate, and his expected wOBA has dropped. He’s still young enough he could be in the process of consolidating. It’s great to see his contact rate now approaching league average. I like the long-term future of this Bryant more than the 2015 edition

9:53	Bruce: Is gary sanchez officially good again?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: He was never bad

9:54	PF: Who should the Jays target this offseason if they intend to truly return to competitiveness? Is it a big job? Do you think it’s realistic?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: The Blue Jays are basically a .500 team now and they’ve dealt with a lot of injuries

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: A few second- and third-tier offseason additions will give them an opportunity for another shot

9:58	E: Is Joey Gallo approaching the lower limits of AVG and OBP while still remaining an above average hitter overall?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Average, yes; OBP, no

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: His OBP is .327. Perfectly fine! There have been reasonable hitters before with OBPs south of .300

9:59	Dave: Did the Tigers send the Cubs a changeling in Justin Wilson’s place? If so, isn’t that worse than the Cardinals’ hacking scandal?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: 7 games, 7 walks, 5 strikeouts