Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/20/13

8:58	Jeff Sullivan: Well would you look at that. It’s a live sports chat, on FanGraphs!

8:59	Comment From Sean You’re 2 minutes early. What’s your excuse?

8:59	Jeff Sullivan: Still finishing the last bites of my breakfast!

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: All right, let’s see what we’ve got for baseball talk

9:01	Comment From Brady This is a super serious question. Why are you such a goofball?

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Other roles are already occupied

9:02	Comment From bdhudson Jordan Zimmermann is developing a really unpleasant trend.

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: This is an example of a prompt that sends me to 60 seconds of research

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: This is why my chats go so much slower than others do

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Zimmerman’s first 13 starts: 2.00 ERA, 4% BB, 17% K

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Zimmermann’s last 12 starts: 5.27 ERA, 7% BB, 20% K

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Interesting whenever you see strikeouts go up as overall performance goes down

9:04	Comment From gregory Castro for Bundy – who hangs up?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Starlin, Simon, or Jason?

9:05	Comment From bdhudson Puig leads to inflated value for Abreu?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Not just Puig, but yeah, he hasn’t hurt the perception that there’s a pretty quick adjustment period

9:05	Comment From Khris Davis My numbers are pretty fluky, but should I be getting more attention?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Only for the fact that your numbers are identical to Chris Davis’ numbers. Your minor-league track record suggests that hopefully you are savoring every day of this experience

9:06	Comment From juan pierres mustache the red sox have 35 games left to play, the yankees 39. if both made the playoffs, do you think that gives the red sox an advantage?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not one worth thinking about very long

9:07	Comment From Jeremy Do you have a cool pet? Like a cobra? Or a mongoose?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have any pets, but there is a neighborhood cat I’m rather taken to, named Mac. I call him Mr Meow

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: He simultaneously follows and expresses disinterest, which I think adequately captures all cats

9:08	Comment From bdhudson What is your favorite moment you’ve ever GIFed?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: ooh ooh ooh give me a minute to look this up

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: augh where is it

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: FINALLY

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: sorry everybody

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: My favorite moment I’ve ever .giffed: http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/32477/DrewHomer.gif

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: That’s a primitive, early-days baseball .gif, that hasn’t been optimized for size or anything, but man do I ever hate Francisco Rodriguez

9:12	Comment From Prich Hart or Cruz, who demands more attention on the open market this winter?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I actually think it’ll be Hart, but it’ll be interesting to see if people still look at him as a regular outfielder going forward

9:12	Comment From Kevin Since Descalso is so awful at SS and Kozma can’t hit, would it make sense to try Wong at SS? I mean he can’t be much worse than what they have already.

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: You want him to learn a new position — one of the most difficult positions — in the middle of a pennant race?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Wong’s never played short as a professional. Stick with Kozma or make some kind of lower-tier deal

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Add Brendan Ryan! He’s completely different from Pete Kozma!

9:14	Comment From bdhudson Albert Pujols will play in 145+ games ___ more times.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: 3

9:14	Comment From Marcus A. Who is your world series favorite? Braves/Tigers seems like a good bet but the Dodgers are making a charge.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Tigers/Dodgers

9:14	Comment From Bkgeneral Willie Mays carries some tarnish from his days with the Mets. At least he was not getting paid $250 million. Will the time/contract with the Angels change the historical view of Albert Pujols?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It’ll affect the way we talk about him for the next several years, but in the long long run, people will be able to view him independent of the contract. What will matter, eventually, will be the numbers, once we’re done caring about the problems with the Angels’ team payroll

9:16	Comment From Oren What’s up with Asdrubal Cabrera?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: career high strikeouts, career low grounders, career normal power. Something definitely looks like it’s up, but someone closer to the Indians might be better equipped to speak to any potential mechanical changes or lingering injury

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: His contact rate is down more than five percentage points from last season

9:17	Comment From Xander Boegarts I’m heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeere.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: You’re lost, go to the clubhouse

9:18	Comment From Justin What the hell is going on with Matt Kemp?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: stuff that ought to make the Dodgers really really worried

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: this is year two of 8/$160 million and he can’t keep his body together at 28

9:19	Comment From Matt How do you think next tear’s Dbacks will compare to this year’s?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Overall similar, less Kubel. Better chance at 90 wins

9:20	Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy How annoyed is FOX going to be if we get a Pirates/Rays world series?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: The Pirates would probably draw fine

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: The least watched World Series was in 2012, which was a four-game series that averaged a 7.6 rating and 12 share.[1]

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Series_television_ratings

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Phillies/Rays compared to Giants/Rangers

9:21	Comment From Bret Jays are in a little dilly-of-a-picle as Melky Cabrera’s legs are so shot that it seems he may have to be a DH next year. They have a $7M option on Adam Lind (with a $2M buyout.) Do they decline Lind’s option? Or pick it up and figure out what to do from there?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: So basically it’s a $5-million option. They should probably pick that up and then explore moving him to teams that want a bat and miss out in the free-agent market

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: but if the Jays just let Lind go, declining his option, that would be totally understandable, given what he did prior to this season

9:24	Comment From Anon21 Please tell The Dark Overlord that UZR updates didn’t go through this past Sunday. I’m hungry for more eye-popping Simmons stats!

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe we’re growing tired of feeding you Simmons people

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe we’re growing tired of feeding you Simmons, people

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: punctuation matters!

9:25	Comment From Kris Hey bro, where is Brian McCann gonna be next year?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Rangers

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: they seem like the best bet to me, anyway

9:27	Comment From HANNAH Do you think the Tell-All Alex Rodriguez Biography that gets published in 2020 is going to be better or worse than the Tell-All Derek Jeter Biography?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: worse, because we won’t be rooting for the main character

9:27	Comment From Prich The After Dark chatters declared you to be 110 pounds with a soaking towell wrapped around you… Too generous?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Why were the after dark chatters talking about me wearing a towel?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I’m Chris Sale, minus an inch from his official measurements

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: so, I’m Chris Sale

9:29	Comment From gregory Who’s baseball’s best bunter?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Erick Aybar is at least the most prolific

9:29	Comment From Evan Longoria Watch me hit 35 HR this year

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: ok

9:30	Comment From Jake Is Chris Archer the pitcher who dominated in July and against Toronto or the one who struggled in early August? Or something in between?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: In between! You’ll notice that, in July, he didn’t really face a single good offense

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Well the Jays’ offense is fine, and in that July start Archer had a strikeout and four walks

9:32	Comment From Joe Can we agree Zimmerman was pitching over his head a bit early on?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, he is not a 2.00-ERA kind of starting pitcher

9:32

Comment From Scott
I’m looking at young pitchers who may run up against innings limits or see their pitch counts limited. Any info on these?

Julio Teheran
Gerrit Cole
Matt Harvey
Jose Fernandez
Shelby Miller
Zach Wheeler
Chris Archer
Patrick Corbin
Jacob Turner
Tony Cingrani
Wily Peralta
Jose Quintana
Tyler Chatwood
Dan Straily
Matt Moore

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: All of them will be limited to some extent, every single one

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I did not properly appreciate the vastness of this inquiry when I added it from the queue

9:35	Comment From Babbler Better future: Smoak or Hosmer?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: virtually indistinguishable, but, Hosmer by a hair

9:35	Comment From Hank How much excitement is suitable for the Xander Bogaerts call up? Is he going to impact the Sox that much?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: He’s not likely to make nearly the difference people would like him to, but the Sox also don’t need that much help and in the heat of a pennant race, every contribution feels like something significant. He’s going to play the hero once or twice, and he’ll do something people will point to as marking the beginning of an outstanding big-league career

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Generally, in terms of coming results, people get too excited over prospects. But they’re also just plain fun to watch, because they’re so new and their potential is so limitless

9:36	Comment From Seligson Jeff, if you were already aware of every trend involving every player then you would not need to stop for those 60 seconds of research. A little homework, please!

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Buster Olney was tweeting at like 4am this past Saturday morning

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: if I’m not mistaken, he was on vacation

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: It is so, so easy to let baseball completely consume your entire life

9:39	Comment From RotoLando If you were going to name a child after a volcano, what would it be?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: first thought would be Shasta

9:40	Comment From Anthony If awards candidates had to run on a ticket with their teammates, which NL team would have the best MVP/Cy Young/ROY slate? (AL is too easy)

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers with Kershaw/Kershaw/Puig

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: but obviously Cardinals and Molina/Wainwright/Miller makes a lot of sabermetric sense even after Molina’s DL stint

9:41	Comment From Anon21 Let’s say that the Braves gave every regular in their lineup an average of 3 days off per week from now until the end of the regular season. Do you think that would be a) advantageous to them in the postseason b) disadvantageous or c) have no discernible effect?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: mostly C but regulars would probably complain about having that much time off. You know how guys who ride benches say they’d produce more with more regular playing time. Maybe a better target would be 1-2 days off per week

9:42	Comment From Hannah Do you think Texas or Oakland will win the AL West? Also, do you think it’s acceptable for Rangers and Athletics fans to put down their differences to have a party about how terrible the Angels are, and by the way, Albert Pujols?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Texas and yes

9:43	Comment From Kevin Are players like Miguel Cabrera, Zimmerman, and Michael Young skewing the defensive ratings, making players like Machado and Arenado seem better than they are?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: well, they’re third basemen, right? yes, the top third basemen would look worse if you left out the bottom third basemen

9:43	Comment From senorpogo Is there statistical evidence that supports inning limits for young pitchers? I’m afraid the Indians will be shutting down Salazar soon and I want to be sure my complaining is justified.

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: A ton of it — probably most of it — is simply educated guesswork, but workload matters for young pitchers and Salazar already has the injury past. Let’s put it this way: would it make sense to give young pitchers no limit at all? They probably need to be protected, somewhat. Then it’s a matter of just establishing an upper bound

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: You can always argue, which is why people are still arguing about Strasburg, and that might never be settled, but in the long run caution will likely be rewarded more than aggressiveness

9:45	Comment From BookWorm Cingrani’s thrown 80% Fastballs this year. Given how many of his non-fastballs show up on Worst of the Best, do you think he should throw an even higher percentage of fastballs?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: more than half of his non-fastballs have gone for balls so far this season

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: But, they’ve generated a lot of whiffs. To be honest I think he’s right around the optimal mix

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Rule of thumb: if your ERA is under 3, and you’re a starting pitcher, you’re probably doing fine

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Cingrani should keep developing the other stuff, and he should make a change in his approach if and only if hitters start to make him pay with greater frequency

9:47	Comment From Gordon Beckham I am hitting the ball very well. Will I ever steal 15-20 bags?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:48	Comment From Vlad Guerrero I get sentimental reading the “Wildest Swings” posts. Sigh…

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The one series that could conceivably include both Vladimir Guerrero and Clint Barmes

9:48	Comment From Sean So no one is going to have a problem when Cabrera wins MVP this year right? Trout clearly deserved it last year but despite Trout’s WAR edge once again this year, Cabrera’s offensive performance simply can’t be topped.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: “despite Trout’s WAR edge”

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: “Cabrera’s offensive performance simply can’t be topped”

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: cannot reconcile

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a great argument for Trout, again. But people won’t get upset, again, because it’s already obvious how this is going to play out and the argument for Trout is weaker than it was a season ago

9:49	Comment From George When watching the highlights from last night’s Marlins game, did you note how often the cameras focused on people cheering in the crowd?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: There was buzz! Marlins Park had a real atmosphere!

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: The TV feed might’ve played it up, but when Fernandez whiffed Puig and Gonzalez…

9:50	Comment From Kris You think teams will start moving to relievers who can go more than 1 IP and using more roster slots on platoon guys? Like the A’s?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know about platoon guys, necessarily, but I do think teams are going to prioritize depth and versatility. I hope for a future with fewer bullpen specialists

9:51	Comment From Marcus A. You’re a cat person? I like you about 5% less now.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not a cat person. I just like a neighborhood cat

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: There isn’t a neighborhood dog, or a neighborhood bunny

9:51	Comment From AM What do you think Brett Gardner could get on the open market? Something similar to the Bourn or Gomez contracts?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Something very similar to Bourn, probably

9:52	Comment From zack What do you think Josh Hamilton’s numbers will look like next season?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: mid-.700s OPS

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: enough hot streaks to show the skill is still there, enough slumps to keep people booing

9:53	Comment From Hank w/r/t the red sox’ relatively low number of games to remain: do you think that gives them an advantage in making the playoffs/winning the pennant, and how big?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: insignificant

9:56	Comment From _David_ Why the 2014 playoffs for replay? Why not “test” it during the regular season first?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I presume they’re going to

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve been poking around for confirmation but I don’t think they’re going to take a brand-new system into the playoffs first

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: sorry for pauses, there is a dreadful hammering coming from the hallway and it’s driving me a little insane

9:57	Comment From zack More likely to be on the Mariners next season: Lincecum or Ellsbury?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: MARINERS QUESTION

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Lincecum

9:57	Comment From Leighton When you GIF things, do you pronounce “GIF” (silently or otherwise), and if so, do you pronounce it correctly?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: it’s jiff

9:58	Comment From Ben Are you concerned about Justin Verlander’s platoon split this year?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: You mean what looks like a reverse split? No

9:58	Comment From Guest Kind of a random question but do you know or know where it’d be possible to find the MLB triple slash only including players first career plate appearance?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: sadly no, although if anyone’s going to help you, it’s going to be baseball-reference

9:59	Comment From AM Puig or Fernandez for NL Rookie of the Year?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I think Fernandez actually takes it, and I can’t believe I’m saying that to be honest