Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/26/14

August 26, 2014

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys. Dog fight outside my apartment!

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: The random kind, not the organized kind

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Anyhow, hey, ask all the fantasy questions you want. I’m not going to answer them though

9:10	Comment From STiVo How does a better’s WPA change if he gets a hit, but a runner is subsequently thrown out at home to end the inning during the play? Does the batter get dinged for the entire negative WPA of the play?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: That’s a good question! Let me quickly investigate, by taking a look at Yasiel Puig’s recent running into a triple play

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It would appear that indeed the batter pays the price for the baserunner’s error, if it is indeed a baserunner’s error

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Looks like Matt Kemp was dinged for Yasiel Puig being too aggressive on the basepaths

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: This is why I used to manually deal with WPA when I put together charts for Mariners games. The automated process works fine 99% of the time, but that other 1% can make a meaningful difference sometimes

9:12	Comment From Jim Did you watch the Emmys at all?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: lol

9:13	Comment From Andrew Wade LeBlanc in the roation for the rest of the year for the angels? or do they get bartolo colon, or wandy Rodriguez

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Wandy Rodriguez?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: He had season-ending knee surgery

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly I think they really don’t want to pay Colon next year. I think this ends up a mix-and-match situation, with the Angels hoping that Shoemaker is about as good as his current K%-BB%

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: There’s only so much for them to do. The timing was awful and the magnitude was worse. I think they hang tight and go with what they’ve got in the postseason

9:15	Comment From Alan Rank by career WAR; Baez, Bryant, Soler, Russell

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Crap. ok

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Descending order: Russell, Bryant, Soler, Baez

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: But I like ’em all

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I’m an optimist in that way

9:16	Comment From Fuuuudddgggeeeee Saw a piece in Providence Journal about MLB teams’ payroll correlating less and less to wins since ~2008. Any truth or tangible reason to this, or is it just small sample size (ie, the big market teams being better/worse over that time span)?

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: It’s a small sample size. There is the factor where teams have increasingly realized the significance of having good players at low salaries, but over time, as front offices get more and more similar, then payroll is going to be a bigger factor in determining outcome. In theory, if all front offices end up identically smart, then the results are going to be about payroll and luck

9:17	Comment From Giggity Thoughts on Tomas Telis? How will PT shake out with him and Chirinos?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Never heard of him before yesterday. The numbers indicate to me that he is not good

9:18	Comment From Pale Hose Hey Jeff. Hypothetically, if you could swap the uncertainty of prospect performance for a guaranteed Dan Uggla career (or Bronson Arroyo for pitchers), are the any prospects you keep? More than 5?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I might keep the top 10 or 15 prospects, but yeah, otherwise, I think I’d take the security of 20+ career WAR

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t feel good about it, but I’d do it anyway

9:19	Comment From Andrew Before he went down, was there any chance that Garret Richards would have won the Cy Young?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Call it < 5%. He had a chance, given a terrific September and some decline elsewhere, but that would’ve been a long shot. Lots of contenders behind Felix

9:22	Comment From Darth Stout Is Jake Arrieta an “Ace” now? Only trails Felix and Kershaw in SP FIP.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: To me, I think “ace” implies a longer track record and proven durability, but I’m buying Arrieta as a legitimate bottom-half No. 1 starter

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Acehood ought to require something like 2-3 years to achieve

9:23	Comment From Andrew Thoughts on Yank prospect Pat Vindette?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: How many prospects are 29 years old

9:24	Comment From McRib Do you see Lawrie coming back and being at all useful for the rest of the regular season? He’s been such an annoyance to Jays fans like me 🙁

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: He might show up at the end for a week or two, but by that point, if the Jays are well and out of it, then they might instead just opt to shut him down. Don’t need to hurry back from an oblique injury if there’s nothing to play for

9:26	Comment From McRib Does it appear Kipnis is still playing hurt? Is it really really stupid to play through an oblique injury?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Just realized that’s two in a row for you!

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: Kipnis said a month ago he’d be dealing with discomfort until the offseason. The numbers certainly suggest he isn’t feeling any better these days. He knows his body better than anyone, but I’m generally against playing through pain, particularly when it causes one to dramatically under-perform. I can’t pin all of Kipnis’ under-performance on the injury, but it’s at least an interesting link

9:28	Comment From GSon Michael Pineda = becoming the kind of SP the Yankees envisioned when they stole him from the M’s or just a flash in the pan?..

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard to say he’s becoming anything given that he has seven big-league starts since 2012, but the talent hasn’t disappeared and neither has the size, so Pineda ought to be pretty good for a while for however long he’s able to remain on a mound. I’m not sure how durable he’s going to be; it seems like there’s always something else going on

9:30	Comment From Kirk What’s going on with Dustin Ackley?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: He’s actually making good contact instead of terrible contact. It would appear he’s turned a mechanical fix into greater confidence, but that’s easy to say in hindsight — the bigger question is how long this keeps up, since he’s done this before. It’s a positive that he’s been mostly a good hitter since last year’s second half

9:31	Comment From PieTraynee Starling Marte has corrected some of his flaws over an admittedly small sample size recently. Is his ceiling that of a star player?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: He was a five-win player a season ago

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: He’s already a borderline star player. His ceiling? There almost isn’t a ceiling

9:32	Comment From Guest Have we reached the point where the Marlins just aren’t going to trade Stanton? I’d imagine a healthy Jose Fernandez would have answered that question for us this season.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: On the contrary, there seems to be a lot of talk about how Stanton is going to be a difficult sign. So I think the Marlins try something in October/November, and then if that doesn’t work for them, then Stanton will be available on the market come winter meetings time

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s dealt in December or January

9:34	Comment From Hank G. FanGraphs publishes game odds on each scheduled game. Do they also track the results of their predictions? Are those results available?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Appelman presumably has them somewhere. They are not publicly available although now you’ve made me curious

9:34	Comment From Andrew would pitchers like Joe Blanton and Josh Towers be better suited to be a knuckle ball pitcher since they have better control?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: How do you know they’d have good control of knuckleballs?

9:35	Comment From Craig Bartolo gets the Mets what?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: If anything, salary relief

9:35	Comment From _David_ Is it very possible or difficult to run searches for players whose numbers fall into a certain range of start x and also a certain range of stat y? How would I begin to learn how to do this?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: If I’m interpreting this correctly, then you can use the filters we have available on the leaderboards! http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:36	Comment From Thor hates Low Key guys Is Keuchel ever going to be close to this good again?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see a compelling reason to doubt him. Maybe he’ll be more of a 3-win pitcher than a 4-win pitcher, but this looks like legitimate improvement where I sit

9:39	Comment From Scooby Is Kazmir hurt or just slumping? His season numbers still look great, but he’s had a rough patch these past several weeks. Do you think he will return to form?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: I’m a little bothered, just because of who he is, but there’s nothing obvious in his indicators, aside from a brief statistical decline. He hit some rough patches a year ago and he still finished strong, so I really want to give Kazmir and the A’s the benefit of the doubt, but let’s just say they didn’t trade for three starting pitchers for no reason

9:41	Comment From Guest Tsuyoshi Wada has been a bright spot for the Cubs since the Samardzija-Hammell trade. What’s his future hold? Is he a guy the Cubs should hold onto going forward?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: His future doesn’t hold much, since he’s 34 in February, but in the short term, he’s a perfectly reasonable big-league starting pitcher. Call him a No. 3 or a No. 4. And to think he was re-signed to a minor-league contract!

9:44	Comment From Thor hates Low Key guys Can Zach Walters be a viable major leaguer? His power has been tantalizing but SSS

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: How much do you like the idea of Mike Zunino as a non-catcher?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say this: Walters can be a viable major leaguer. He probably will not be a viable major-league starter, but his power is going to earn him several more opportunities

9:45	Comment From BoB LoBLaW Will Dombrowski’s peeing contest with Beane hurt the Tigers overall

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: Depends how you’re looking at it. They obviously turned long-term value into short-term value, but the projections still love the Tigers and it doesn’t get much better than David Price. You can never guarantee a championship, but how much value do you place on improved odds of a trophy?

9:46	Comment From Thor hates Low Key guys Is Arencibia any better than he was before his callup?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Why would he be?

9:48	Comment From Guest trade between the angels and cubs, mike trout for bryant, baez and soler. who says no?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: This might sound crazy but I think the Angels. Over the next six years, Trout could have as much as $200 million of surplus value. That’s more than you should expect from three top prospects

9:50	Comment From Fowler What should we expect from Wil Myers next season?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Last season, minus some BABIP

9:51	Comment From Vic Romano Soler started this year in Rookie ball and now finds himself in the bigs. I don’t think that sort of rapid acceleration through a system happens very often. I’m trying not to set my expectations for him too high the rest of this season, but it’s difficult.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: He ended last year with a bunch of games in High-A. He’s still moved quickly, but let’s not make too much of the rookie-ball thing

9:52	Comment From _David_ I’m already tired of watching Chris Taylor…will Miller ever get another chance to start regularly?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Not until Taylor stops hitting singles

9:54	Comment From erghammer Chris Carter–WTF?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Now this is how you sell out for power

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: 25% grounders, 54% fly balls

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: He’s swinging more than ever and trying to lift the ball more than ever. They’ll find his vulnerabilities again, but this is a 70-grade slugger on a hot streak

9:55

Comment From Brawn
Was at the M’s game last night and was watching from the bullpen. When Medina got sent in, all the other bullpen guys (led by Tom it looked like) got up and cheered him onto the field as he was running to the field. Is chemistry the reason for their bullpen success this year? 50% serious question

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: They also had really good bullpen chemistry in their shitty seasons

9:56	Comment From Guest what moves do the Reds need to make in the offseason? blow it up or a couple major trades to stay competitive?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: They’re in a bad organizational situation. It’s time to start trading starting pitchers for longer-term value

9:57	Comment From BoB LoBLaW Rusney Castillo-mania! Have Cuban-born players jumped the shark now?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: The market’s correcting for players having been undervalued. We’ll see how the market responds to the next high-profile Cuban bust

9:57	Comment From Wandy? How can I convince my wife to watch Breaking Bad with me?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: If she needs that much convincing, maybe it’s better to just watch it on your own?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: If you insist that she give it a shot before she writes it off, try doing nice things for her first. Call it a favor exchange

9:58	Comment From Transient Gadfly Do the Madlib: the Orioles going (on defense) from Manny Machado to Chris Davis at 3b for the rest of the season is the same as [Name of Contending Team] replacing [Really Good Hitter] with [Really Bad Hitter].

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: How about the Angels going from Garrett Richards to Wade LeBlanc

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not that severe, but Davis would be an easier glove to swallow if it weren’t for his bat

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: what a weird sentence to have be true in 2014