Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/6/13

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Good heavens, I think we’re starting on time.

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: I better publicize that this is live now.

9:00	Comment From Eminor3rd DELAY! We’ can;t start on time!

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: I am not prepared for this either!

9:01	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy Jeff Sullivan and the chat long Victory lap

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: I am amazed myself

9:01	Comment From Josh Can we stick to actual baseball in this chat? I am so sick of the extracurriculars. Was watching a fantastic Dodgers-Cardinals game last night and the announcers wouldnt focus on the game. So frustrating

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: No we probably can’t

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes it’s fun to talk about other things

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, I came here while a third of the way through Jeff Passan’s latest on A-Rod. Some people are so upset.

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Which, you know, that’s fine, it’s been a long and astonishing fall for that guy. But have we really learned anything new?

9:04	Comment From ar what would trout get on the open market this winter? 10/400?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Trout’s 22 tomorrow. Alex Rodriguez hit the market at 25. That’s probably our closest comparison

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say maybe 10/$300 million. That seems like a reasonable compromise

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: It’s insane to me that that contract structure could be considered reasonable, by the way

9:06	Comment From Billy Beanes fiber Why does Kevin Towers suck? J-Up and Chris Johnson could’ve been batting with Paul Goldschmidt. Come on.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, no one’s ever really thought of Chris Johnson as much of a loss

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: If there’s really something to him, people will only now begin to appreciate it

9:07	Comment From JEB NL: Braves, Pirates, Dodgers, Cardinals, Reds

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, these are teams

9:07	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her Masterson is an ace now, correct?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: He’s Cleveland’s

9:07	Comment From zack Does Justin Smoak not completely suck? Has he somehow gained increased physical strength?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: He doesn’t completely suck, no. He walks more and he makes more consistent quality contact. He still doesn’t hit for enough contact or power to be good, but this is still a massive improvement, for him.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Smoak needs to get to a .200 ISO or thereabouts. That’d be a pretty good first baseman

9:09	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV Thank God that A-Rod is appealing the suspension. Hopefully it will detract from preseason football coverage.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: That roided-up monster! America never tolerates its roided-up monsters!

9:10	Comment From Rags IF ALL THE RAINDROPS WERE LEMON DROPS AND GUM DROPS OH WHAT A RAIN IT WOULD BE!

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Everything and everybody would die

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: but hey free candy

9:10	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy so how much did you get paid to write that piece jinxing the Braves (mostly kidding….mostly….)

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I think it would be fascinating to be able to spend a day believing genuinely in jinxes

9:11	Comment From zack Does Jeter play again this year?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Some, yeah

9:11	Comment From gson Amazing yourself doesn’t sound like a very high bar to cross..

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: And earlier I made toast! Wow!

9:12	Comment From EKNPDX How do you view Jacoby Ellsbury’s impact on a team. I’m just not sold yet on him being worth the kind of financial commitment he’ll command as a FA.

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: It’s a little like if Michael Bourn had one weird fluke season in his track record before hitting FA. With Ellsbury, teams need to forget about that, but he did set himself a 9-win ceiling. What’s really apparent is that he’s just good at most things, and he should be a star-level player for a few years for a team who appreciates defensive and base-running contributions.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Because so much of what he does is “invisible” people might not like him as much as they ought to. Plenty of front offices will bow out, but Ellsbury will get paid and Ellsbury will probably be worth it

9:15

Comment From Mike
Enjoyed the victory lap piece. If you were Fredi, how would you approach the last 7 weeks of the season so as to maximize your chances of keeping everyone fresh for the postseason without compromising a clubhouse of (presumably) competitive athletes? What about using opportunities to develop young talent?

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: In the immediate I wouldn’t change very much, but I’d plan to take full advantage of expanded September rosters, presuming by that point the lead hasn’t perilously dwindled. Regulars remain regulars and starters remain starters. Just, there would be more time off. And I’d communicate this point with all the players, who would probably be appreciative. The season is long and hard.

9:16	Comment From Billy Beanes fiber Wil Myers… is it possible, as he’s doing now, that he can maintain a higher babip during his career?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: You mean like his current .378? No

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: In the minors it was .353, which is above-average. I could see Myers being maybe a .310-.320 guy, but nothing really extreme

9:18	Comment From ball hair how bout a stike here! Is Ryan Madson ever an effective reliever again?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not for very long, reliably. Relievers, man

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Interesting, though, to have a case of a guy for whom Tommy John wasn’t just a formality. I think many of us take that surgery for granted

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard! It’s not 100%!

9:19	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her Are the Dodgers stil the favorite to win the NL?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: With a healthy Ramirez and a healthy Puig, they’re probably right up there with anyone else

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: We have them projected as the NL’s best team the rest of the way http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

9:20	Comment From JEB What do YOU want to talk about Jeffrey?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I was just up on Mount St Helens the other day and it was nice

9:20	Comment From Jeff So what the heck is going on with Prince Fielder? His OPS is around 790 right now. Did he already forget how to hit?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Well the first thing is we can see his strikeout gains from last year haven’t sustained

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: He’s back up to his Brewers levels, and that’s probably meaningful

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect this is just an extended slump, where Fielder is producing below his true talent, but I also suspect he’s entered his decline phase, which people have been predicting

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I think Fielder’s still a good hitter, a better hitter than this, but I think more and more people are going to notice the difference between him and Cabrera at the plate

9:23	Comment From Mick Jagger have teams offered you jobs? what teams?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I have interviewed twice, but not for a long time. I have been asked to interview once, but I didn’t want to. Working for a team does not appeal to me in the least, not at this point in my life.

9:24	Comment From Dan Concerned about Cabrera’s injury? He couldn’t even run when playing last night. Walked to first every time he put the ball in play.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I have faith that it’ll be properly managed down the stretch. The Tigers aren’t idiots

9:25	Comment From Rated Rookie Brett Lawrie! The regimen Red Bull and not-being injured are finally paying off.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: He’s been really good! For 11 games!

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: 6/10 – 6/22, 2012: 11 games, 1.138 OPS

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I WILL RUIN YOUR PARADE

9:27	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy Let’s say that you lived in some alternate reality where just a player’s production = actual value. Would you look to sell Prince Fielder to someone that hasn’t yet re-calibrated what they think Prince Fielder is?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I’d ask around but I’d also be willing to wait for him to improve

9:27	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV This Kluber kid seems like the real deal. He was great last night in against a Tigers lineup with Miggy.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s kind of hard to fake your way to what Kluber has already accomplished

9:27	Comment From zack If the Yankees miss the playoffs and they probably will, will everyone blame AROD?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:27	Comment From Rated Rookie Man, I love Eric Hosmer.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: And finally there’s a reason to

9:29	Comment From NJQ What is something that is interesting you in baseball right now?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Jose Fernandez

9:29	Comment From gson Disaster in Cleveland for Indians fans?.. or just another bump in the road?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: A bad game against a better team

9:29	Comment From bdhudson Jeff Passan seems a bit whiny.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: He is a passionate man

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: or he knows how to come off like a passionate man

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes I am envious of those with an obvious, intense, undying passion

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: As opposed to just general levels of interest

9:31	Comment From Billy Beanes fiber Why has Nick Markakis’ power gone bye bye?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: He’s never been a big power guy and he’s just going through some power-related under-performance. He’s better than his .098 ISO

9:31	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy I am upset that the Yankees will not have A-rod’s contract count against the luxury tax if he gets suspended. THAT is something to be a bit annoyed about.

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: It’s one of the rules with contracts, though. It’s not like it’s a loophole and it’s not like A-Rod probably doesn’t deserve a massive suspension. And, of course, the Yankees didn’t make A-Rod get involved with Tony Bosch. I know it’s a bummer that the Yankees could have an escape route here but it’s perfectly sensible and if you want to laugh at a team, laugh at the Angels. They have dead money too

9:34	Comment From Anon21 Andrelton Simmons: 50 Defensive Runs Saved in 157 career games. At this point, he seems to be past the conversation about Brendan Ryan and J.J. Hardy and into the conversation with Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel, no?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Simmons UZR/150: 26.4

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: next-best since 2012: 13.5

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s time to wonder if Simmons is one of the all-time greats. But, of course, we’ll see how he ages, since his defense isn’t going to get any better, presumably

9:35	Comment From Scouty McScoutington Please grade your curveball on a 20-to-80 scale.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: 25, could be 35 with more work

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Even when it’s good, I telegraph it

9:37	Comment From Eddie Who is Jason Heyward?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: In a way, kind of Justin Upton with better defense

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: But they’re equally talented and equally maddening

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: During last winter’s Upton rumors, I got tired of trying to figure out what he was. I’m tired with Heyward as well. Pick something!

9:38	Comment From Dewey What the heck? McCann is still under 30 yrs old?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: And so is Jonathan Broxton

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: it’s like, what

9:39	Comment From Wily Mo Yen Mo Problems Even though A-Rod won’t be getting paid when the appeals process ends, does that money still go towards the Yankees luxury tax?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I believe not

9:40	Comment From Justin Lets talk about Chad Gaudin

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: And he’s only 30!

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Debuted when he was 20. Been around forever and still lots of miles left in that arm

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: More to your point though he’s not good

9:40	Comment From LarryA I wish batting order mactually meant way more than it does. It would lead to much more fun arguments and way more second guessing

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it is kind of too bad it’s such a small factor, but then from that we can learn some pretty invaluable lessons

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: The fact that it doesn’t matter that much is kind of amazing

9:41	Comment From Prince Fielders nipple hairs What do you think the Tigers will do with Nick Castellanos when they bring him up? Do they finally move Miggy off of 3rd?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: At this point they presumably see him as an outfielder but they’ll re-visit the Cabrera situation when Castellanos actually forces his way up

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: He won’t have forgotten 3B

9:42	Comment From NJQ When are the Dodgers going to lose?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Within the next few days

9:43	Comment From Jay Bigger villain: A-Rod or Bonds?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Recency bias tells me A-Rod, but these days A-Rod’s just gotten sad. Bonds would’ve made for a better boss fight

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, through everything, Bonds produced and took possession of a hallowed all-time record. That really pissed people off

9:44	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her The royals are 4 games back from a playoff spot…..

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they’re certainly justifying Dayton Moore’s stance. But they’re still a playoff longshot

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?sn=2013&i=1

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: seven AL teams have higher odds of playing after the regular season

9:45	Comment From Billy Beanes fiber Kole Calhoun… bright MLB future ahead?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, no

9:46	Comment From Eddie If you were a Cubs fan, would you root for them to lose at this point?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s my stance on rooting for losses:

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: It’s great, of course, to get a higher draft pick. Maybe that pick is protected. There’s more talent available, and more money available. This stuff is obvious.

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: But if your team loses a lot, that means it’s because the players are performing worse. Many of those players are potential long-term building blocks. Worse performances by them leads to worse future projections. If the Cubs were to finish *strong*, that probably means some of the younger guys made stronger contributions. Which would make their future prospects appear more sunny. Think about it: would you rather have Rizzo end with a .750 OPS or an .850 OPS, for example?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like rooting for losses. But there’s something to be said for losses not being that bad as an alternative, at some point

9:48	Comment From bird Speaking of Passan, how does the FG/saber community view Yahoo!/ESPN/ETC writers? Passan seems to have come around to the saber world.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think we have one general group opinion. We all have our individual tastes, and all individual writers write articles of varying quality. Everybody serves a purpose and I know that Passan in particular has been pretty saber-friendly, so that’s neat.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t always agree with his particular tone and style, but that’s who he is and what he does and I think that’s great. Lots of people disagree with us

9:50	Comment From rusty If they put you in charge of identifying objective criteria to determine the season MVP, would you submit a list or decline? What would you put on such a list?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I’d probably decline. Unless they paid well.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: There are too many variables, and I don’t think people want an objective MVP award that’s cut and dry. People want those arguments.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: My only request would be for people to shut up about playoff contenders and non-playoff contenders

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: It’s really god damned hard to produce on a bad team

9:52	Comment From JEB Who is your favorite young player to watch, Harper, Trout, Machado, Puig, someone else?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Felix because Felix still counts

9:52	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her How often do you and Dave Cameron hang out in real life?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: He lives in North Carolina, so, not often. But at least once a year and we talk often

9:52	Comment From Three Fingers Stump After his previous start, what do you think King Felix will do tonight?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: really good things

9:52

Comment From Spencer
In baseball, how much could a schedule do to influence a team’s results? In football, with their structuring and “competitive balance” strategy, the schedule seems almost solely responsible for a team going 9-7 or 11-5. But I’m curious about its effects in baseball. The Braves started the season with a home-heavy, easy schedule, and won a lot of games. They followed that with a LOT of road games, mostly against good teams, and played at about .500. Now they have 7 games against winning teams left RoS, with lots of home games, and they’re winning a lot. Their high’s and low’s seem almost perfectly correlated to their schedule. Perhaps that is why they’ll have a victory lap to end the season.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: In short spurts, the baseball schedule matters, and in certain instances a team will have a harder or easier schedule than another team because of particular division lopsidedness. But at the end of the year most of the discrepancies will balance out so it’s not a major factor

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: it’s probably a relatively unexplored factor, but it is what it is. As long as we have unbalanced schedules, we’re going to have..unbalanced schedules.

9:54	Comment From Shark Mapiro What on earth is Scott Kazmir going to get as a free agent this year? Will it be cheap enough for the Indians to keep him?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t wait to find out

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: If Joe Blanton got 2/$15 million…

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I think Kazmir settles in a similar area

9:55	Comment From JEB What team do you want to see make it to the post season but you don’t think they will?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Mariners

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: 🙁

9:56	Comment From George Allen Craig got thrown out at home again last night!

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: A few people told me about this on Twitter. And again, it’s mostly because the defense made an amazing play!

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Craig can’t catch a break! Except for all of the breaks that he catches

9:57	Comment From Guest Alex Wood drawing Chris Sale comps… Fair?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Not unfair

9:57	Comment From John Doesn’t the MLBPA have to temper its defense of Arod due to the fact that many of its members support stricter penalties?