Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/7/15

August 7, 2015

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to live baseball chat

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be with you for live baseball chat in 30 seconds!

9:11	Comment From Frank Jobe Mets odds of winning the division seemed to jump between yesterday and today. Is that simply because it’s another day being in first place and thus closer to the end of the season?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: No, that wouldn’t be it — nobody played

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to guess a few things. Could’ve been an update to the depth charts. Could’ve had a new set of updated projections inserted. And it could also just be statistical noise; the projections are based on a large but not infinite number of simulations, so each one comes with some error bars and you might observe this sort of fluctuation

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: But that’s unusually large. A seven-point increase in playoff odds, with no one playing a game. The take-home, perhaps: all the numbers you see are estimates

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Looking behind the scenes, I don’t see any evidence of a depth-chart update, so it’s due to something else

9:15	Comment From Josh G Does Clay Buchholz throw another pitch in 2015?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be surprised if he made a late-September appearance or two, just so he can go into the offseason with a clearer head, but obviously ther’es no point in rushing him along

9:16	Comment From Squall 6 runs yesterday. How done is Zack Greinke?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: 10 runs allowed in his last three starts. He allowed 10 runs over his previous 11 starts

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: But you can’t really blame him; ran into the Phillies juggernaut

9:17	Comment From Mike Jeff Happy Adam Loewen Day! Amazing stuff.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Is this unprecedented? I feel like it probably isn’t unprecedented, but it has to be close

9:18	Comment From Ryan What’s the highest ratio of future value to present value you’d be willing to trade at the deadline?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: It’d be something close to the David Price trade — I’m generally disinclined to make a big deadline splash, ever, so I’m more of a Neal Huntington man

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: But I could get on board with the Price move, so that’s nearly as much as I’d do. Most of the time, I’d prefer cheap and little tweaks

9:19	Comment From Bryan Who do you think ends up winning the AL West?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Astros

9:20	Comment From adam will 2016 be avisail’s year?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see it. I don’t love this player type

9:21	Comment From JT Do the Jays bump the yankees out of 1st in the AL east?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I figure they end up a game or two short, but that’s the cold, rational part of me; the emotional part of me has trouble understanding how the Blue Jays are going to lose

9:22	Comment From Rey Rey Rey Hey, only 10 minutes late. You’re like Rey Ordonez swinging at a Pedro pitch.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Ordonez only struck out against Pedro two times in 15 trips!

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: So actually I’m worse

9:22	Comment From Brad Fullmer When is Mt.Baker going to blow im sick of looking at it

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: You’re sick of looking at Mt Baker?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: You’re the most jaded person I’ve interacted with this week!

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Look at it! Look at it all of the time!

9:23	Comment From BK Chances the Mets and Blue Jays both win out and play the greatest World Series in history?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: 85%

9:25	Comment From Jonah How should the Mets be lining up their outfield? Cespedes looks okay in center so far, is that a viable long term solution ROS?

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: It’d be one thing if Lagares weren’t hurt, but as is, I’d be comfortable with Cespedes out there. He can handle it, and even Shin-Soo Choo faked it for an entire season. In the later innings, if desired, they could move Cespedes and insert Lagares as a defensive replacement. Might make sense on occasion to have Lagares start in center for Niese/Colon games

9:30	Comment From TT Do you have any insight into the Cardinals’ historically great LOB% this year?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t, at this moment. The most I can say is, last year, they were in the vicinity of average, so if this were an organizational thing, you’d think you’d see evidence of it before. It seems like the pitching-staff version of that one year the offense went crazy with men on base. It’s probably a coincidence that it’s been the Cardinals both times, but this is why people accuse them of black magic

9:31	Comment From Eddy Carlos Correa is super awesome, but aren’t the Trout comps a little ridiculous?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: Depends on how conservative you are. If you place a lot of weight on track record, then obviously, Trout is unparalleled. But if you’re confident in your Correa evaluation, then, I mean, he’s been as valuable as Trout so far, on a game-per-game basis. And it’s a similar idea, young superstar at a premium position.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Correa could be the Astros’ version of Trout. Doesn’t mean he’ll be a 10-WAR player, but if it’s 6 or 7…he’s amazing, basically, and he’s too young to be this amazing

9:34	Comment From Josh G Is it time to start believing in Taylor Jungmann?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: He’s added some strikes, which is important, but I don’t see him as more than a No. 3/4

9:35	Comment From Oren Hello Jeff – what contract is David Price going to get in free agency? And how many Canadian dollars will that be?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: $200m+. In Canadian dollars, he’ll cost you a province

9:36	Comment From HR What do we make of a team like the Padres underperforming their projections like they have? Does that fall on the coaching staff, the projection system or is it just one of those things?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: This year there have been far greater underachievers. Boston, Seattle, Miami…there’s nothing real weird about San Diego’s season. They looked like something like a .500 ballclub. They’ve been close to a .500 ballclub.

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: You begin with the position that there’s always going to be some fluctuation. From there, you can try to figure out reasons for fluctuation, and maybe, from an insider’s perspective, the team never jelled. Maybe that’s on the coaches, or maybe that’s on the executives. But I pretty much always believe it’s just one of those things

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: People will try to explain it in hindsight, but I think it’s just: hey, Kemp has been bad. Shields has been homer-prone. The bullpen hasn’t been the strength that was expected. They needed more things to go right

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: In the positional power rankings, the Padres bullpen tied for second before they traded for Craig Kimbrel.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: This year, instead, they’re No. 21 in WAR. Should’ve been better, got unlucky

9:41	Comment From Logan Davis CoverItLive’s default email notification setting emails you one day in advance of a chat. Who the heck notifies themselves of a live internet chat an entire day in advance?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Not this guy!

9:42	Comment From AM I know you mentioned you weren’t sure what your answer would be to 2011-14 Tigers vs. 2012-15 Red Sox, but have you thought about it more? Given the Mariners’ mostly down history, I’m curious if you would take the title trade-off.

9:42	Comment From Kris which 4 years would you pick?

9:42	Comment From Arun The “Pick Your Four Years” post has triggered a very interesting baseball debate – among the people I’d usually talk about such things with anyway. Any further thought to which option you’d pick, now?

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: I’ve gone back and forth, which is what you expect of any close and difficult decision. But my current thought is that I’d take the Red Sox. Part of this is because my team has never won, so I’d like to experience that. But while, on the one hand, the Tigers are four years of success and the Red Sox are three years of failure and disappointment, you get that championship memory for a lifetime. It can still feel fresh in 30 years. The good seasons that end in defeat — those are good for six or seven months. Then you move on

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: And, you know, I’ve been through Mariners seasons that were good, and Mariners seasons that were terrible. The terrible ones generated their own entertainment; the good ones came with anxiety. I actually look back somewhat fondly on the Mariners’ horrible 2008, because I found a way to have fun. I think a terrible season isn’t *that* much worse than a good season, in terms of experience value

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: It’s complicated.

9:46	Comment From a bug o/u on jackie bradley getting as many MLB plate appearances as brandon wood

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: He’s only 158 away

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll get ’em next season

9:47	Comment From Logan Davis Who’s the GM of the Mariners in February?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like it’s Zduriencik unless it’s Dombrowski, so it depends on how wild the Mariners are about Dombrowski, and how wild he is about the Mariners

9:50	Comment From Stroshow Stroman is starting his rehab Aug 21. Should the Jays bring him back as a starter? Seems the right side of the bullpen is set with Hawkins, Sanchez, Lowe and Osuna.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Always room for another reliever, especially with the playoffs potentially coming up. If Stroman can return, it’s in the bullpen. I can’t imagine him getting stretched out, and the Jays being willing to take that chance

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Just be happy if you get anything

9:52	Comment From Kiley McSpaniel I can understand all the cold water folks dumped on the Correa article yesterday, but man, he has been unbelievably good. He’s pacing nearly 9 WAR over a full season – is there any chance he can displace Trout/Harper at the top next year?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Some chance, but it’s low. More likely would be the Donaldson/McCutchen tier, if that exists as a tier. But Correa is definitely the guy most able to break into the very highest level

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Man, there’s a lot of good young players in baseball

9:55	Comment From jocephus can grichuk be a quality starting CF’er?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: For the next few years

9:55	Comment From Natsty Is there sound logic to the Joe Ross/Doug Fister flip in the Nats rotation?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Fister has been bad, and Ross has been good

9:57	Comment From Joe Chris Stewart has a BABIP of .341. Last season his BABIP was .400. How in the world could that be possible?!?! He’s slow and doesn’t hit the ball hard ever. Is there anything happening in baseball right now that is less sustainable than Stewart’s BABIP?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: A few weeks ago I would’ve said the Twins, but it would appear they’ve calmed down and found themselves, much to their own disappointment

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: So, let’s now go with no, there is nothing happening in baseball right now that is less sustainable than Chris Stewart’s BABIP