Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/21/18

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

squeeze bunt: Why is anny Margot so bad at stealing bases?

Jeff Sullivan: Why is Rougned Odor even worse?

Jeff Sullivan: Margot wasn’t particularly bad last season. Been worse this year. Stolen bases are about a lot more than raw foot speed. He might just somewhat struggle to get good reads of first moves

WP41: How much value would you guess Javy Baez being able to play multiple premium positions has provided to the Cubs this season?

Jeff Sullivan: WAR never really feels like an appropriate construct for this

Jeff Sullivan: He’s relieved Zobrist at second, he’s relieved Russell at short, and he’s relieved Bryant at third. Obviously, it’s helped the Cubs that they’ve had a quality replacement across the board. But Baez is far from the only versatile infielder in the game. It’s not like his is a unique profile

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s figure the Cubs would be something like one win worse if Baez couldn’t play as many positions as he does

Jack: Tommy Pham has a 179 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR through 29 games with the Rays and has three more seasons of team control. That trade still mystifies me. Do you think that was one of those trades where other GMs saw it and were like “What, he was available?!”

Jeff Sullivan: I doubt many teams out there were unaware that Pham and the Cardinals didn’t exactly see eye to eye

Jeff Sullivan: I imagine it was a function of a couple things — Pham is already 30 years old, and he has his eye problem that is, at the very least, a yellow flag. Pham has suggested it shouldn’t be much of a problem for him anymore at all, but it’s still something that’s going to make more than a few executives hesitate

Derek Jeter: Okay, maybe I got greedy demanding Robles AND Kieboom AND more from the Nats for Realmuto. Let’s make this simple: Realmuto for Soto straight up. Fair deal, right?

Jeff Sullivan: Nationals would never do it at this point

Jeff Sullivan: A prospect like Soto is only ever available until he reaches the major leagues. And Realmuto has just two years of team control left

1060 West Baddison: If we consider only on-field performance, would the Cubs actually be worse if they just send Addison Russell home for the rest of the year?

Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t matter. He should be suspended indefinitely

Jeff Sullivan: Now, Russell has his own rights and he can’t just have his career on permanent hold, so these allegations should be investigated right away. But in the wake of the Astros’ Osuna trade, teams have to take these incidents far more seriously. The Cubs don’t have to wait for MLB to step in

Ross: Is Brandon Lowe the best rookie who’s getting no attention?

Jeff Sullivan: He’s one of them, but he’s not the only one. I mean, he’s getting only a little less attention than Joey Wendle

Jeff Sullivan: Jace Fry deserves some praise for what he’s done. Jose Castillo. Ji-Man Choi. Nick Martini

Jeff Sullivan: Fun rookie class. They usually are, but this year is no exception

Bork: So the Rays.

Jeff Sullivan: Pretty bad loss yesterday!

squeeze bunt: Is there a scenario where the Padres could package their rule 5 eligible players for a talented lower level player?  Seems like the Rays may be open to this type of deal.

Jeff Sullivan: That’s kind of what the Astros did when they traded Ramon Laureano for Brandon Bailey

Jeff Sullivan: Laureano was Rule 5 eligible, and Bailey was not

Jeff Sullivan: The Rays, though, don’t seem like an ideal match, because they’ll have their own roster crunch to deal with. Lots of talent in the upper levels of that system

Tim: You see that Kovalchuk goal last night? How excited are you for hockey?

Jeff Sullivan: I was more excited before Ottawa traded the best player I’ll ever have a chance to root for

Jeff Sullivan: Happened the day after I paid to renew my Gamecenter membership!

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: AL MVP is going to come down to “the Red Sox are very good and the Angels are not” isn’t it

Jeff Sullivan: Not entirely, but of course it’ll be a factor

Jeff Sullivan: Ramirez, Lindor, Bregman, and Chapman also stand to get legitimate support

Airport Banana: Are there reliable ways to assess how vulnerable specific umpires are to pitch framing? If so, how much value is there to teams in knowing this, and how could they use this information to gain an advantage?

Jeff Sullivan: In theory you could probably examine the degree to which an umpire’s zone changes based on the identity of the catcher, but I don’t think there would be much for teams to do with that data. You only have two or three catchers on your roster at a time, and the umpire assignments are always rotating

Some Thoughts on the Pod…: Listened to the Pod that you and Ben recorded with Michael Schwimer. The most amazing thing to me is that DePodesta is involved. I mean, that guy profited from taking advantage of minor leaguers in the beginning and is now cashing in on the back end. And for what it is worth, Schwimer went to a $50,000/year private high school. His folks are in the 1% of the 1%. If the guy was reffing basketball games in the offseason, it is because he was looking for tail.

Jeff Sullivan: Based on feedback we’ve received, it’s obvious that Schwimer is a divisive guy. What is clear, at least in general, is that there’s room for a good-faith actor to be doing what BLA claims to be doing. There’s nothing wrong with the idea. Could be something wrong with the execution. And, ultimately, it’s shameful that MLB has left room for this kind of business to exist in the first place

Bob: Analytically, is there any reason to treat knuckleballers differently than regular pitchers?

Jeff Sullivan: They seem to have the ability to suppress BABIP

Jeff Sullivan: So FIP can be especially misleading

Michael S., Big League Advance: Jeff, if I were to award you: (A) $1 million to make one single free throw in a high-pressure situation, or (B) $10,000 right here and now, no obligations and no questions asked — which option would you choose?

Jeff Sullivan: The break-even rate there is something like 1%. Of course in reality it’s more complicated, but I can shoot a basketball. My free-throw odds are probably at least like 33%

Jeff Sullivan: And the possibility to receive $1m would change my life. Getting $10,000 would be great, but I’d still live in the same place and do the same thing

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: This year’s AL CYA offers plenty of choices along an inverse relationship between quality of results and number of innings pitched. Is that going to be more common in the era of super bullpens, TTO penalties, and “why leave Sale in, we’re a 100 win team whether he goes 6 or 8 innings tonight”?

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, we’re probably going to want to focus less on innings pitched, because if the starter didn’t pitch those innings, odds are they’d go to some assortment of good relievers. Granted, there’s value in not having to use those relievers at all, but just pitching for its own sake isn’t super critical if someone else has been superior in less time

Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, of course, if you have a guy who’s great but who only goes like 5 innings every start, then it’s not necessarily fair to compare his numbers straight against another starter who works deeper and sees the same hitters more often

Jeff Sullivan: Awards voting is *never* as simple as it seems like it should be

Jeff Sullivan: I get to vote for this year’s AL Cy Young, but that’s not necessarily a treat

Airport Banana: What’s your favorite “hidden” talent or area of value that isn’t easily explainable by numbers?

Jeff Sullivan: Does deception count? I love that there are deceptive pitchers out there but we don’t always know exactly why

Tom: Which team will be better next year: Rays or As?

Jeff Sullivan: I actually think it’s the Rays, assuming Treinen can’t repeat this kind of season

Jeff Sullivan: Both should be contenders

Jonny: The Rays and the Indians have exactly the same record, but the Rays are 18.5 games back in their division and the Indians  are 14 games ahead in theirs. How crazy is that? And how would you respond to a Rays fan angry at the unfairness of it all?

Jeff Sullivan: The AL East has always been unfair, relative to other divisions, just because of the presence of the Red Sox and Yankees

Jeff Sullivan: As long as there are divisions, some of them are going to be stronger than others. It’s not “fair” to the Rays, Jays, or Orioles, but nothing will be done until there’s expansion

Bill: Do starting prospects need to practice relieving before they can do it well? Looking at a load of Braves starting pitching prospects who were decent starting but don’t seem to have it in relief

Jeff Sullivan: This is anecdotal, but at the end of April 2016, Edwin Diaz was a starter in Double-A. At the start of May 2016, he was a reliever in Double-A. One month later, he was called up to the majors

Jeff Sullivan: Some pitchers take to it faster than others, and some pitchers take to it better than others, but it tends to be a pretty quick transition

NYTT: How would you go about supplementing the Braves position player core this off season? I would think that now, with two MVP type players in Freeman and Acuna and guys like Albies, Camargo, etc to supplement, you go and get guys who can compete for the playoffs now

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Braves could use another good outfielder. Makes more sense to trade than to sign as an FA. It’s too bad Pham already went somewhere he’ll be valued

Jeff Sullivan: If they just end up keeping Markakis, well, that’s that. But they don’t have to

Ryan: Do you think the Rays’ new TV deal will help them actually retain some of the players who have performed well this year, as opposed to churning their roster in typical Rays fashion?

Jeff Sullivan: Craig wrote a little about this in March https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/even-the-rays-can-get-a-billion-dollar…

Jeff Sullivan: It’s worth noting that, in the final year of the Rays’ previous TV deal, they’re getting $35 million. In the first year of the next TV deal, they’ll get $50 million, and it will increase from there

Jeff Sullivan: So the Rays are going to draw in more revenue, but not by some staggering amount, not right away. We should see incrementally higher payrolls moving forward, I’d imagine

Jeff Sullivan: But don’t expect the Rays to ever be big-time players in free agency or anything. They’re always going to succeed on young-player contract extensions and cheap reinforcements

Greggers: The Padres have an abundance of intriguing but flawed corner outfielders. Between Cordero, Renfroe and Reyes, which players do you think they should prioritize?

Jeff Sullivan: Cordero’s injury-marred season has been disappointing but I think the Padres need to hold on to his upside. And then between Renfroe and Reyes, Reyes seems like the better hitter, but he’s really a problem in the OF. Presumably belongs somewhere in the American League

Airport Banana: How easy/hard is to evaluate the overall quality of a front office?

Jeff Sullivan: Not too hard to divide into a few tiers, but incredibly hard to achieve further separation

Roger: Should the Diamondbacks look to rebuild by, e.g., trading Goldschmidt?  Or instead just retool for one more run at contention in 2019?

Jeff Sullivan: I think you hope against hope for a potential WC berth in 2019. There’s no massive trade package coming back for one year of Paul Goldschmidt

Jeff Sullivan: They’ll be an underdog, but as long as Goldschmidt and Greinke are around you might as well try

Dylan: True or false. The AL Wild Card game should be entirely bullpenned by both teams

Jeff Sullivan: Yankees can get innings from Severino, but no reason for the A’s to give whoever starts more than two or three frames

Jeff Sullivan: If that’s a “normal” starter, so be it. But there’s no chance said starter would work deep

James: Why can’t the Astros hit at home? It’s been going on for 2 years now. I’m starting to believe the curse of Tal’s Hill.

Jeff Sullivan: Minute Maid is, surprisingly, a pitcher-friendly environment. One of the most pitcher-friendly environments in baseball https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&season=2017&teamid=0&sort=…

Jeff Sullivan: Last year’s home/road split, then, wasn’t crazy. This year’s is bigger, but it’s still not exceptional; the Astros look like the Cardinals, Mets, A’s, and Mariners

Jeff Sullivan: I’d mostly blame an artificial BABIP split. Astros at .278 at home and .302 on the road

Zack: You’re Billy Beane / Bob Melvin.  How do you handle the pitching for the WC game?

Jeff Sullivan: Aggressively

Jeff Sullivan: I’d probably give one turn to Trevor Cahill and bullpen from there. And that’s only if Cahill’s back seems like it’s better

Fangraphs reader: Would you have Josh James on the playoff roster?

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how you don’t. You make room if you have to

Jeff Sullivan: The Astros already have way too many good pitchers, but you can’t in good conscience leave an arm like that at home

Anon21: Is there anything in Anibal Sanchez’s pitch mix, movement, or selection that supports his drastic improvement this year?

Jeff Sullivan: He’s largely converted a bad slider into a good, harder cutter

Jeff Sullivan: He’s also dramatically increased his changeups against lefties. He’s moved away from his fastballs

Jeff Sullivan: It seems to have helped to mitigate a developing home-run problem. Of course, moving to the NL didn’t hurt him, either

Jeff Sullivan: Sanchez, for a while, was *almost* good. I think his improvement is actually kind of subtle, but significant

Sir Mookleton McBetts: What is your most hated “Playoff Narrative”? Will you pretty please write an article about Playoff Narratives and why they are false, and what, if any, have some credibility? Thanks Jeff!

Jeff Sullivan: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-playoff-myths-to-ignore/

Jeff Sullivan: Ben Lindbergh has got you covered!

Jeff Sullivan: I hate when commentators suggest that certain players are better equipped to handle the spotlight than others. Broadcast psychology is a complete waste of time

Mike: After last night’s rough start for Tanaka who do you think ends up starting the Wild Card game for the Yankees?

Jeff Sullivan: Should be Severino, for he is good

stever20: What did you think about what Arizona did on Wednesday putting in the AAA team if you will vs the Cubs when they were still alive?  and how baseball is it that it actually worked?

Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t think anything of it. A team’s obligation is to itself, not to the rest of the league. And if the Diamondbacks wanted to press the reset button or send a message or something, that’s up to them to do. God knows the regular lineup hadn’t been getting the job done of late

Connor: Any concern with Jose Ramirez? Only 1 HR in the past 29 games.

Jeff Sullivan: Last August, Ramirez hit only two home runs, with a wRC+ of 76. His September wRC+ was 243

Jeff Sullivan: My worry is like a 2 out of 10

Bullpens: Besides the Rays and As, which teams are most built for/most likely to decelop a pitching staff that fully blurs the line between SP and RP?

Jeff Sullivan: Could see the Padres ending up somewhere like that

Jeff Sullivan: And since the Twins are already experimenting at Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors, they’re clearly open-minded

Tugs: Do you think there is any weight to the argument that MVP and Cy Young being the “only” two “most” prestigious awards “steals” something from position players if a pitcher wins both?  How many people really care who wins the Hank Aaron, or Platinum Glove compared to the MVP and Cy Young?

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s silly. If a pitcher is the best, he should win both awards

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t actually understand how there could be an argument to the contrary

Jeff Sullivan: I know that there *is*, based on historical voting patterns, but it makes zero sense

brian eno: so…will addison russell play another game for the cubs?

Jeff Sullivan: Shouldn’t any time soon

Michael Moore: Is Jose Peraza good? Could he get better?

Jeff Sullivan: Based on his underlying Statcast numbers, he’s overachieving. His .301 xwOBA is only 10 points higher than it was a year ago

Jeff Sullivan: That being said, he’s a contact hitter with speed, so in this era and especially in that ballpark he could become one of those just-enough-power guys

Jeff Sullivan: And then you have a 3-win player

Ian: Is Tampa a serious contender next season? Will they make any additions to get them there?

Jeff Sullivan: Very serious WC contender, still a likely underdog compared to New York and Boston. They could use help behind the plate. A Realmuto trade would be fascinating

Bort: Does Ryon Healy have compromising pictures of Jerry DiPoto or something? How else to explain the team’s maddening decision to continue playing him over Vogey?

Jeff Sullivan: If I cared more, it would be infuriating

Jeff Sullivan: I get that, in theory, Healy has some upside. In reality, Vogelbach is closer to reaching his own

tb.25: What do you say when someone says WAR shouldn’t be the only measure determining MVP?

Jeff Sullivan: That person would be right. WAR has very many shortcomings

bluejays fan: what are your thoughts on Cavan Biggio?

Jeff Sullivan: The strikeouts are more likely to stick with him than the walks. Waiting for him to play well at a defensive position. That being said, should still reach the majors

Gunnerfan: Hey Jeff. I know you are primarily a baseball sabrmetrics guy, but have you ever read or looked into statistical analysis of other sports like for example statsbomb on soccer. Are you at all in interested in the methods in which they collect their data and interpret it? For example pass quality, shot pressure, and expected goals in soccer.

Jeff Sullivan: I’m interested enough to have someone talk to me about it for half an hour. I’m not sufficiently interested to spend time looking into it on my own. I don’t care about soccer, football, or basketball, and I’ve made the decision not to learn more about hockey on purpose

Jeff Sullivan: I prefer that hockey remain a strictly emotional outlet

Sir Mookleton McBetts: The Dodgers just swept the Rockies and their chance to win the Division is now 95%. I don’t have a question

Jeff Sullivan: Felt inevitable. Could still blow it! But the Dodgers are simply too damn good.

Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny — we always talk about how one season is still a small sample, all things considered, but it’s amazing how by the end so many things do seem to find their natural level

Turning Japanese: Any Asian imports worth keeping an eye on?

Jeff Sullivan: https://www.mlb.com/news/yusei-kikuchi-may-join-mlb-in-2019/c-29044009…

Jeff Sullivan: There will be more, I’m sure, but that’ll be more of an offseason pursuit for me

Nick: josh james is pretty filthy right?

Jeff Sullivan: Believe Carson

Charles A: Ty Buttrey – any thoughts at all on his showing?

Jeff Sullivan: It’s early, obviously, but you have to love his having three pitches, getting grounders, and getting strikeouts. Slider seems legit. His stock could rise very quickly if he keeps retiring both righties and lefties

John: Do you know of any sites doing all context level stats, where striking out Trout bumps up your K% more than striking out Gallo, essentially breaking down every match up forwards and backwards to get a more nuanced view of K%, wOBA, WAR, etc. etc.?  Including everything important(park dependence, umpires, etc.)

Jeff Sullivan: No!

Jeff Sullivan: Baseball Prospectus has some pitching stats that attempt to fold in park, framing, strength of opponent, etc. That’s probably as close as you can get

Vslyke: Do you think Russell will get suspended now when he wasn’t before? The new information seems like a game changer

Jeff Sullivan: Presumably would depend on his ex-wife’s willingness to cooperate. At least, in terms of a suspension being handed down from the league. She wouldn’t cooperate with investigators last year, so there wasn’t much more for them to do

Alex: Rank the disappointment of these 2018 collapses: Diamondbacks, Phillies, Rockies.

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Phillies would be the most disappointing, then the Diamondbacks, then the Rockies

Jeff Sullivan: Now, the lateness of the Rockies’ slump makes that a little more acute

Dustin H: Any chance we could see a series of articles on top MVP candidates for the NL MVP? Something like the “The Case for (insert candidate name here) for AL MVP” series that was done by various writers here in 2016?

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe something to do next week. I’ll put it into the Slack

Hinkie: Give me your best guess:                                                                 In 2019, Manny Machado will be playing for __________ and Bryce Harper will be playing for __________ .

Jeff Sullivan: Yankees, Phillies

Derry Jipoto: A lot of non/underperforming contracts; Seager, Felix, Gordon, Robi, Nicasio etc. Where do I start in offloading or getting value?

Jeff Sullivan: lol good luck

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s really up to Dipoto anyway. I assume he’s under some kind of mandate not to burn it down

Coach K: What is Thor doing to change to a contact pitcher? Is this something intentional or perhaps something still wrong. It appears strikeouts are down and maybe there is a long term plan finally sinking in that he will go longer in games not trying to k everyone. Your thoughts?

Jeff Sullivan: Interestingly, at least according to Brooks Baseball, in Syndergaard’s most recent start he didn’t throw a single sinker. All his fastballs were four-seamers. That would represent a marked change in direction

Jeff Sullivan: But even second-half Syndergaard has allowed a contact rate of 74%, which is basically exactly where it was when he was a rookie

Jeff Sullivan: Put another way, I don’t think Syndergaard is trying to pitch to contact. I think his command isn’t where he would want it to be

Jeff Sullivan: One other thing — for some reason, this year, Syndergaard hasn’t been able to throw as many high-rising fastballs as before. So his four-seamer has been less effective. Wonder if that’s a delivery thing that’s changed unintentionally

David: Without a full blow up are the mariner’s going into a 3-5 year stretch of purgatory, balancing between 70-80 wins.

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, probably

Jeff Sullivan: They are not good, and they are not terrible

Kristen: Chances Cash and Neander win MOY and Exec of the Year?  TB 18 games over .500 despite MLB’s lowest payroll and the Archer deal was amazing.

Jeff Sullivan: I imagine the playoff bump is going to give the award(s) to Oakland

NYTT: As a Braves fan, I am pessimistic about them in the playoffs solely because wow the Dodgers are good (My assumption is that we play them). What would be the odds that the Braves take that series? 1 in 3?

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s use some basic math

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s assume a five-game series, and let’s just assume the Dodgers end up with home field

Jeff Sullivan: We can use actual records first. The Braves and Dodgers both have winning percentages of .556! The Braves would have a 49% chance of winning that series, roughly

Jeff Sullivan: But according to BaseRuns, the Dodgers “should” have a winning percentage of .607. The Braves, .572. Using those numbers, the Braves would have about a 42% chance of winning that series

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say it’s probably somewhere around 2-in-5, or 3-in-7

Mac Gwire: Is the Yankees’ righty-heavy lineup a concern against Oakland?

Jeff Sullivan: It could be a bit of an issue, yeah. They’d have to decide whether to play Gardner over McCutchen, and Bird over Voit

Jeff Sullivan: Everyone of note on the A’s pitching staff aside from Buchter and Anderson are right-handed

Gunnerfan: Jeff. The Yankees hit 3 very silly homeruns to right field over the short porch on Wednesday against David Price. They all had very low hit probabilities. What is the lowest hit probability on a homerun ever recorded?

Jeff Sullivan: On May 1, Anthony Rizzo went deep against Jon Gray in Chicago

Jeff Sullivan: The expected batting average of the home run was .004

Jeff Sullivan: It uh, got up there in the wind

Jeff Sullivan: But wait! On August 17, 2017, Jedd Gyorko went deep against Jameson Taillon in PIttsburgh

Jeff Sullivan: The expected batting average of the home run was .002

carrotjuice: MLB including the Rays in the “Post Season Push” seems like a bit of a stretch, no?

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

Jeff Sullivan: I saw headlines yesterday describing the Rays’ collapse against the Blue Jays as devastating. No. Their odds have long been under 1%

John: Are there any pitchers you particularly think would be a good fit for a post-opener role? I really enjoyed Kiley and Eric’s post on that subject

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure we know enough yet to be able to identify specific pitchers who would be especially good for the role. You’re looking for guys too good to just relieve but not good enough to be top starters. Guys like, I don’t know, Chad Green?

Ian: Javier Baez will have an OBP under .300 next season, I don’t think he’s all that much better than a guy like Ian Desmond

Jeff Sullivan: At least now he’s got Adalberto Mondesi to point to as someone doing the same thing

Ben: I just saw a tweet about how good Luke Voit has been with the Yankees. Why did the Cardinals trade him again? Positional logjam or something? He’s played a ton of 1B in New York

Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals have already had some trouble finding room for Jose Martinez. Voit’s a fine hitter, but he doesn’t provide value elsewhere, so with the Cadinals’ depth he got squeezed out

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days