Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/21/18

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07	squeeze bunt: Why is anny Margot so bad at stealing bases?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Why is Rougned Odor even worse?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Margot wasn’t particularly bad last season. Been worse this year. Stolen bases are about a lot more than raw foot speed. He might just somewhat struggle to get good reads of first moves

9:10	WP41: How much value would you guess Javy Baez being able to play multiple premium positions has provided to the Cubs this season?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: WAR never really feels like an appropriate construct for this

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: He’s relieved Zobrist at second, he’s relieved Russell at short, and he’s relieved Bryant at third. Obviously, it’s helped the Cubs that they’ve had a quality replacement across the board. But Baez is far from the only versatile infielder in the game. It’s not like his is a unique profile

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s figure the Cubs would be something like one win worse if Baez couldn’t play as many positions as he does

9:14	Jack: Tommy Pham has a 179 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR through 29 games with the Rays and has three more seasons of team control. That trade still mystifies me. Do you think that was one of those trades where other GMs saw it and were like “What, he was available?!”

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I doubt many teams out there were unaware that Pham and the Cardinals didn’t exactly see eye to eye

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: I imagine it was a function of a couple things — Pham is already 30 years old, and he has his eye problem that is, at the very least, a yellow flag. Pham has suggested it shouldn’t be much of a problem for him anymore at all, but it’s still something that’s going to make more than a few executives hesitate

9:16	Derek Jeter: Okay, maybe I got greedy demanding Robles AND Kieboom AND more from the Nats for Realmuto. Let’s make this simple: Realmuto for Soto straight up. Fair deal, right?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Nationals would never do it at this point

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: A prospect like Soto is only ever available until he reaches the major leagues. And Realmuto has just two years of team control left

9:18	1060 West Baddison: If we consider only on-field performance, would the Cubs actually be worse if they just send Addison Russell home for the rest of the year?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t matter. He should be suspended indefinitely

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Now, Russell has his own rights and he can’t just have his career on permanent hold, so these allegations should be investigated right away. But in the wake of the Astros’ Osuna trade, teams have to take these incidents far more seriously. The Cubs don’t have to wait for MLB to step in

9:21	Ross: Is Brandon Lowe the best rookie who’s getting no attention?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: He’s one of them, but he’s not the only one. I mean, he’s getting only a little less attention than Joey Wendle

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Jace Fry deserves some praise for what he’s done. Jose Castillo. Ji-Man Choi. Nick Martini

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Fun rookie class. They usually are, but this year is no exception

9:23	Bork: So the Rays.

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty bad loss yesterday!

9:23	squeeze bunt: Is there a scenario where the Padres could package their rule 5 eligible players for a talented lower level player? Seems like the Rays may be open to this type of deal.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: That’s kind of what the Astros did when they traded Ramon Laureano for Brandon Bailey

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Laureano was Rule 5 eligible, and Bailey was not

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: The Rays, though, don’t seem like an ideal match, because they’ll have their own roster crunch to deal with. Lots of talent in the upper levels of that system

9:25	Tim: You see that Kovalchuk goal last night? How excited are you for hockey?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I was more excited before Ottawa traded the best player I’ll ever have a chance to root for

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Happened the day after I paid to renew my Gamecenter membership!

9:26	Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: AL MVP is going to come down to “the Red Sox are very good and the Angels are not” isn’t it

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Not entirely, but of course it’ll be a factor

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Ramirez, Lindor, Bregman, and Chapman also stand to get legitimate support

9:27	Airport Banana: Are there reliable ways to assess how vulnerable specific umpires are to pitch framing? If so, how much value is there to teams in knowing this, and how could they use this information to gain an advantage?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: In theory you could probably examine the degree to which an umpire’s zone changes based on the identity of the catcher, but I don’t think there would be much for teams to do with that data. You only have two or three catchers on your roster at a time, and the umpire assignments are always rotating

9:29

Some Thoughts on the Pod…: Listened to the Pod that you and Ben recorded with Michael Schwimer. The most amazing thing to me is that DePodesta is involved. I mean, that guy profited from taking advantage of minor leaguers in the beginning and is now cashing in on the back end. And for what it is worth, Schwimer went to a $50,000/year private high school. His folks are in the 1% of the 1%. If the guy was reffing basketball games in the offseason, it is because he was looking for tail.

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: Based on feedback we’ve received, it’s obvious that Schwimer is a divisive guy. What is clear, at least in general, is that there’s room for a good-faith actor to be doing what BLA claims to be doing. There’s nothing wrong with the idea. Could be something wrong with the execution. And, ultimately, it’s shameful that MLB has left room for this kind of business to exist in the first place

9:31	Bob: Analytically, is there any reason to treat knuckleballers differently than regular pitchers?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: They seem to have the ability to suppress BABIP

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: So FIP can be especially misleading

9:33	Michael S., Big League Advance: Jeff, if I were to award you: (A) $1 million to make one single free throw in a high-pressure situation, or (B) $10,000 right here and now, no obligations and no questions asked — which option would you choose?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: The break-even rate there is something like 1%. Of course in reality it’s more complicated, but I can shoot a basketball. My free-throw odds are probably at least like 33%

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: And the possibility to receive $1m would change my life. Getting $10,000 would be great, but I’d still live in the same place and do the same thing

9:35

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: This year’s AL CYA offers plenty of choices along an inverse relationship between quality of results and number of innings pitched. Is that going to be more common in the era of super bullpens, TTO penalties, and “why leave Sale in, we’re a 100 win team whether he goes 6 or 8 innings tonight”?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, we’re probably going to want to focus less on innings pitched, because if the starter didn’t pitch those innings, odds are they’d go to some assortment of good relievers. Granted, there’s value in not having to use those relievers at all, but just pitching for its own sake isn’t super critical if someone else has been superior in less time

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, of course, if you have a guy who’s great but who only goes like 5 innings every start, then it’s not necessarily fair to compare his numbers straight against another starter who works deeper and sees the same hitters more often

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Awards voting is never as simple as it seems like it should be

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I get to vote for this year’s AL Cy Young, but that’s not necessarily a treat

9:38	Airport Banana: What’s your favorite “hidden” talent or area of value that isn’t easily explainable by numbers?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Does deception count? I love that there are deceptive pitchers out there but we don’t always know exactly why

9:39	Tom: Which team will be better next year: Rays or As?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I actually think it’s the Rays, assuming Treinen can’t repeat this kind of season

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Both should be contenders

9:40	Jonny: The Rays and the Indians have exactly the same record, but the Rays are 18.5 games back in their division and the Indians are 14 games ahead in theirs. How crazy is that? And how would you respond to a Rays fan angry at the unfairness of it all?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: The AL East has always been unfair, relative to other divisions, just because of the presence of the Red Sox and Yankees

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: As long as there are divisions, some of them are going to be stronger than others. It’s not “fair” to the Rays, Jays, or Orioles, but nothing will be done until there’s expansion

9:42	Bill: Do starting prospects need to practice relieving before they can do it well? Looking at a load of Braves starting pitching prospects who were decent starting but don’t seem to have it in relief

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: This is anecdotal, but at the end of April 2016, Edwin Diaz was a starter in Double-A. At the start of May 2016, he was a reliever in Double-A. One month later, he was called up to the majors

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Some pitchers take to it faster than others, and some pitchers take to it better than others, but it tends to be a pretty quick transition

9:44	NYTT: How would you go about supplementing the Braves position player core this off season? I would think that now, with two MVP type players in Freeman and Acuna and guys like Albies, Camargo, etc to supplement, you go and get guys who can compete for the playoffs now

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Braves could use another good outfielder. Makes more sense to trade than to sign as an FA. It’s too bad Pham already went somewhere he’ll be valued

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: If they just end up keeping Markakis, well, that’s that. But they don’t have to

9:48	Ryan: Do you think the Rays’ new TV deal will help them actually retain some of the players who have performed well this year, as opposed to churning their roster in typical Rays fashion?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Craig wrote a little about this in March https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/even-the-rays-can-get-a-billion-dollar…

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: It’s worth noting that, in the final year of the Rays’ previous TV deal, they’re getting $35 million. In the first year of the next TV deal, they’ll get $50 million, and it will increase from there

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: So the Rays are going to draw in more revenue, but not by some staggering amount, not right away. We should see incrementally higher payrolls moving forward, I’d imagine

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: But don’t expect the Rays to ever be big-time players in free agency or anything. They’re always going to succeed on young-player contract extensions and cheap reinforcements

9:52	Greggers: The Padres have an abundance of intriguing but flawed corner outfielders. Between Cordero, Renfroe and Reyes, which players do you think they should prioritize?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Cordero’s injury-marred season has been disappointing but I think the Padres need to hold on to his upside. And then between Renfroe and Reyes, Reyes seems like the better hitter, but he’s really a problem in the OF. Presumably belongs somewhere in the American League

9:53	Airport Banana: How easy/hard is to evaluate the overall quality of a front office?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Not too hard to divide into a few tiers, but incredibly hard to achieve further separation

9:55	Roger: Should the Diamondbacks look to rebuild by, e.g., trading Goldschmidt? Or instead just retool for one more run at contention in 2019?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I think you hope against hope for a potential WC berth in 2019. There’s no massive trade package coming back for one year of Paul Goldschmidt

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll be an underdog, but as long as Goldschmidt and Greinke are around you might as well try

9:56	Dylan: True or false. The AL Wild Card game should be entirely bullpenned by both teams

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Yankees can get innings from Severino, but no reason for the A’s to give whoever starts more than two or three frames

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: If that’s a “normal” starter, so be it. But there’s no chance said starter would work deep

9:58	James: Why can’t the Astros hit at home? It’s been going on for 2 years now. I’m starting to believe the curse of Tal’s Hill.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Minute Maid is, surprisingly, a pitcher-friendly environment. One of the most pitcher-friendly environments in baseball https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&season=2017&teamid=0&sort=…