Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/16/14

September 16, 2014

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hi friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s baseball chat

9:05	Comment From Tom Jeff, when CoverItLive asks for an e-mail address so they can send a reminder for this chat, would you like me put in yours?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I was at my computer on time, too, I just had to read through Blengino’s latest before I opened this up. Didn’t want to wait

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Blengino’s latest! http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:06	Comment From CuriousGeorge Jeff did you see the community article yesterday on stealing bases? In it there was a little model for figuring out should you steal, and i couldnt get it to work. the first box where you like 2x0x never worked for me! any insight?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I’m actually the editor of the Community blog but I’m not responsible for the tool. You should leave a comment, I’m sure the author will be paying attention

9:06	Comment From David 2 games back with 13 to play. Do you believe in your Mariners?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I believe that they are real

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: But to answer your question, no

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Friday when they beat the A’s, their playoff odds were 55%. Three losses later, 21%. Congratulations, Royals, don’t choke

9:09	Comment From Hamilton Porter Even if you penalize for the minors next year, is Sano going to provide more value to the Twins than Taveras to the Cards over the next 3 years?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Ooh. Assuming Sano gets aggressive treatment next season: I’ll go with, sure!

9:10	Comment From Matheny I should know this, but…any news on Wacha, will we see him start again this regular season?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Their playoff odds are such that the best thing to do would be to make sure Wacha’s available for October. He apparently felt great in a bullpen session just a little while ago so that’s encouraging, but they’re not going to rush him. Maybe he gets a start before the postseason

9:11

Comment From Shyam
Does WAR adjust for quality of opposition? For example, does a pitcher get the same credit for striking out Chris Carter and Victor Martinez. If not, don’t you think WAR ahould be adjusted in such a way that the “replacement” level is the expected performance of a replacement player if he had played the same opposition as the player in question?

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: There is no opposition adjustment, but before you even get to particularly big samples, things start to even out. Everybody, every player in baseball, is going to have faced a slightly different group of opponents, but the extremes regress in a damn hurry such that adjustments would probably be on the order of like one or two tenths of one point

9:12	Comment From Tom Kershaw for MVP?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Believe it

9:12	Comment From Hamilton Porter What’s the realistic difference between Billy Hamilton and who Buxton will most likely be?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Offense

9:13	Comment From john does last nights start catapult degrom to the top of ROY contention?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not just last night’s start — Billy Hamilton, in the second half, has hit .214/.265/.276. He’s been dreadful for a long time, while deGrom has been outstanding

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: So, Hamilton’s got issues to work out, and the Mets have reason to think that 2015 could be an actual interesting full regular season

9:14	Comment From _David_ What exactly is happening from a baseball and probability standpoint, when Iwakuma walks Dioner Navarro on 4 pitches? Do pitchers actually not pitch worse hitters that differently?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: *Efren Navarro

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Within a single at-bat, approach can be dwarfed by randomness. And, just Sunday, Clayton Kershaw was brilliant against the Giants, and walked Yusmeiro Petit

9:15	Comment From ESPN Are you into fantasy football?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Yes I am, in the year 1999

9:16	Comment From Jack Is there any chance Kluber can win the Cy Young, or is Felix a virtual lock?

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Felix isn’t a *lock*, but he has the narrative and familiarity, and right now he has the Win% and the ERA. I’d personally probably give it to Kluber if I were to choose today on account of the team defenses and everything, but Felix is probably the favorite right now by at least 2-to-1

9:17	Comment From MetsFaithful5 Jacob deGrom

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Eight strikeouts! Single by the pitcher!

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: A Jacob deGrom fun fact:

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: deGrom: 75.6% contact rate

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Strasburg: 75.8%

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Darvish: 75.5%

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: #baseball

9:19	Comment From Jake Thanks as always for your time, Jeff. Yasmani Thomas, over/under $90 mil this offseason?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Rusney Castillo got $72 million. Tomas is years younger and has a better power tool. He’ll clear $90 million

9:20	Comment From Kevin As the postseason looms on the horizon, which team’s fans do you think are the most apprehensive about their chances?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Royals fans would’ve been until the final few innings last night. Now they’ve been bought some time. Mariners fans are giving up by the thousands. I suspect Brewers fans came to terms with things a few days ago, and aren’t taking this little bounceback seriously enough

9:22

Comment From _David_
Marc W wrote on USSMariner yesterday about Matt Shoemaker’s success in the majors after not-success in the minors. He speculated that maybe the things that contribute to the run scoring environment in the majors, such as Pitch fX pressuring the umpires and expanding the strike zone, are not present in the minors…Have you or anyone considered this?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: There’s definitely a growing information gap between the Majors and Triple-A, even though teams do have stuff for the minors that we don’t have access to. But there’s also the fact that Shoemaker went from pitching in the PCL’s Salt Lake to the AL’s Anaheim. It shouldn’t actually be a shocker that he’s having better success on contact allowed

9:25	Comment From Hamilton Porter Why won’t the Dodgers free Joc? Is it to build value for Kemp/Ethier, or do they believe that he’s not currently good enough?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Ethier’s not really playing either

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: They’re not going to sit Puig. They’re not going to sit Kemp. Crawford’s playing well, and so is Van Slyke in a part-time role. We’ve known forever this was a crowded situation and it hasn’t gotten any less crowded. There’s not a lot to be gained right now from playing Pederson, given who else could be played. So getting time for Joc isn’t the priority at the moment

9:28	Comment From Cardinals Centrist Player A: .328/.381/.571 wRC+ 159 in first AA season Player B: .323/.396/.531 wRC+ 151 in first AA season Player A=Oscar Taveras Player B= Daniel Descalso

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Taveras that year was 19 and 20, and Descalso was nearly 23

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: /checks Pete Kozma’s page

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: good god

9:29	Comment From GSon Is it really not enough offense or is the pitching so much better this year that has led to the significant reduction in runs scored (overall, off about 8 to 9 %)?..

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: League ERA’s down 3% from 2013

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: Pitches across the board have gotten a little bit faster. The strike zone’s a little bigger. Strikeouts are up a little, walks are down a little, power’s down a little. The run-prevention side is better, and a theory is that they’re benefiting from the excess of information more than the run-production side can.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: That’s something I’m researching and working on behind the scenes. Will publish something eventually

9:32	Comment From Kris Braves are now .500. Were they always a true talent .500 team?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: At the start of the season, we had them projected for 82-80

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: They weren’t a true-talent .500 team when they had Medlen and Beachy lined up

9:35	Comment From LA Jacob DeGrom’s 13K’s last night, do you think we’re seeing his true talent? Or is he just getting lucky?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see many reasons for skepticism. Stuff’s there. Strikes are there. Hard to fake a low contact rate. Grounders are there. Manageable platoon split. Obviously he’s out-producing what he did in the minors, but then in the other league we have the Matt Shoemaker example of same. Maybe I’m hasty but I’m happy to buy these kinds of guys. You can learn a lot more pitching in the majors than you can in Triple-A and I buy deGrom as a future No. 2/3

9:36	Comment From J6takish What percentage of questions are ‘why doesn’t Player X just NOT do ‘glaring exploitable fault'”?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Surprisingly few!

9:38	Comment From Stephen Can arbitration ever reduce rather increase a salary for a player? Or would they just be sent through waivers?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a rule for this — a team can offer a salary reduction of no more than 20% from the previous season’s salary

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: In reality though, it just doesn’t really happen. The way arbitration is built up, you generally don’t see salary reductions come out of arbitration hearings

9:40	Comment From Guest Off the top of your head are they any 1st base upgrades the M’should target in fa or trades?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Anybody

9:41	Comment From Jake What can we expect from Jesse Hahn next year? Do you think he’ll keep his ERA below 3.50?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Average NL ERA this year is 3.68. Hahn would be pitching half the time in Petco. Yeah, he can get there

9:43

Comment From erghammer
I have a theory about Mookie: he is actually going to be the starting 3B next year, but the Sox cannot say this yet. Clearly they have a logjam in the OF, and leaving Mookie out there just makes it worse. Clearly, they need a 3B and Middlebrooks isn’t the answer. Mookie is clearly a good enough athlete, and probably has the arm, to handle 3B. But the Sox need to showcase Middlebrooks, and gain nothing by benching him now and reducing any perceived trade value (not that he has much). Am I imagining things? If I am, where do you think Mookie ends up next year?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Red Sox even know. I think they know they have a variety of options, but plans can change in a damn hurry when you think about packaging prospects for one star, and I certainly don’t think the Red Sox think Middlebrooks’ trade value will benefit from continued playing time. I don’t really believe in showcasing when it comes to bad players. The Sox say they haven’t thought about Betts as a third baseman and I pretty much believe them. They could have that discussion next January or February, but by then Betts might no longer be on the team

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Sox know they have a busy offseason ahead, and they’re aware of their own clutter, but I don’t think they want to keep shuffling Betts around if they don’t have to

9:45	Comment From Jake How real is Michael Brantley’s breakout season?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Very real, I think

9:46	Comment From Gila Monster If you go by RA9 WAR and are slightly convinced that WAR slightly undervalues IP, Couldn’t you make the case for King Felix or Cueto over Kerhsaw?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: If you stretch, and I mean really stretch, you might be able to get someone to equal Kershaw, but by 50/50 WAR/RA9-WAR, it’s Kershaw by a good amount, especially ahead of Cueto

9:48	Comment From Dunx Not that it matters much, since the one-game playin is so flukey, but the best case scenario for the A’s right now is to play the Royals in Oakland, right? They’ve got the best bullpen, but Shields seems like the weakest of the possible aces.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Cover It Live is eating my answers again

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Well this is a nuisance. I’m just going to have to imagine that you can see things that I can’t see sometimes

9:50

Comment From _David_
A genie offers you the following choice: The Mariners next 20 years will play out like the Marlins last 20 years. Same results, same talent…Maybe explain the financials by the Mariners owners refusing to let salaries rise at the inflation rate as the rest of baseball…You wouldn’t know what was coming, and somehow wouldn’t be able to see the resemblance to the Marlins and think you were in some freaky simulation…The other choice is to let everything happen as it would otherwise…What do you choose?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: That’s an extremely complicated hypothetical

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: So I’m offered a choice, but if I choose the one thing, I don’t know I made that choice somehow? So it’s like a Men In Black situation?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I choose regular reality. Baseball isn’t only interesting and fun to me because of winning championships

9:51	Comment From Bradley Seriously though, which teams (if any) that are currently outside of the playoffs spots do you think will make the postseason?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: None of them

9:52	Comment From Matt If you were voting for Cy Young, How would you balance FIP-based and RA9 WAR?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a case-by-case thing. My default is 50/50, but I need to know about each pitcher’s individual team defenses, and so forth

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Cueto, for example, has earned the benefit of the doubt with his RA9-WAR skills. Kluber has pitched in front of a shitty defense. Felix has pitched mostly in front of good defense, with a very capable framer

9:53	Comment From Kirk Why is Joe West so terrible?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: his diet and upbringing

9:53	Comment From Jaack Quick! Who has been the most value A’s player over the past 10 season? If you guessed Mark Ellis, you’re lying, but correct.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully I did not have time to guess

9:53	Comment From 1990JaromirJagr Best Lettuce in the game, DeGrom or Samardijia? After last nights display, I think DeGrom takes the cake. He was throwing junk, and his lettuce was greasy

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I hate this

9:54	Comment From A. Lane Have yet to read it but, Blengino’s pieces are great, don’t seem to start the comment wars but excellent addition to Fangraphs.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Many of his pieces are very similar, so you basically know what you’re getting into when you click on one of his headlines. The usual troublemakers aren’t going to make the effort when there are so many other comment sections around

9:54	Comment From Rated Rookie Anthony Rizzo is a good reason to watch the Cubs. There are others–and will be many more others, soon–but he’s an impressive ballplayer and seems like a decent human being.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: yes

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Cover It Live hiccup…

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Boy do I hate this service sometimes

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Well, sorry, Blue Jays question, it seems the window doesn’t want you to be submitted and answered

9:56	Comment From Julio Bourbon Has there been any research done on how well switch hitters do when batting from the opposite side of the plate than their previous AB (in the same game)?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I have not seen anything

9:57	Comment From Rated Rookie Could the Indiana rotation be the best in baseball next year? Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco, House, Bauer seem like a pretty stout rotation, and with upside!

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: It could be, but it probably will not be

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Someone will probably get hurt. Someone will probably underachieve. Not much of a track record with most of those guys

9:59	Comment From _David_ If a team has a pitching coach like Dave Duncan or Don Cooper, are their talents being wasted in the majors? Why not (and pay them enough that they would accept this) send them out frequently to evaluate and coach minor league pitchers too?