Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/17/13

September 17, 2013

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Surprise! Late!

9:03	Comment From Bip You’re a rascal, Sullivan

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Ain’t I a stinker!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Woke up with the best of intentions, too. Then I got stuck reading volcano articles.

9:04	Comment From Danborski Franklin or Ackley at 2B?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Ackley

9:04	Comment From DTSS Tell us something interesting you learned today when reading about volcanos.

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: There’s evidence of active cryovolcanism on Titan

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: that being the moon of Saturn

9:06	Comment From Steve Rank these for 2014: Wacha/Cingrani/Holland/Archer

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Holland/Cingrani/Wacha/Archer?

9:06	Comment From new beers! Do you prefer wOBAR or BAR as when looking at new beers?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I prefer trusting my gut, like a traditional

9:06	Comment From Doll Well, now that you’ve finished with the volcano articles, this chat should really blowup

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I appreciate the intent but the execution was lacking 🙁

9:06	Comment From Mike How consistent are GB/FB ratios from year to year for batters? Should we expect Puig to continue hitting around 50% GB and 30% FB?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: They’re pretty stable, and on top of that, in his brief stay in the minor leagues, Puig was also a groundball hitter. You don’t want to make too much of it because this is Puig’s first year against new competition, but the evidence suggests he’s going to put a lot of balls on the ground going forward, yeah

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: If he starts putting more balls in the air, it’ll be because he made an adjustment

9:09	Comment From Marty Don’t know how far you are yet on your Minor League 30 team review, but which team do you think was the most positively surprisingly?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Who do you think I am?

9:09	Comment From Dale Jeff, did you see Mike Trout’s homerun last night? That ball was absolutely crushed. I have been on commuter flights that didn’t travel as far. Do you think he could hit more homers if he sacrificed average?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Link: http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=30676759

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: The second-best part: Figueroa pointing up like he thinks the ball is going to be easily catchable

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: The best part: the home run

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: I do think Trout could hit more home runs if his goal was purely hitting more home runs, because he could just go up there guessing and swinging as hard as he can, but I absolutely don’t think it’d be worthwhile. I think Trout is more or less optimized as a hitter, and I don’t think an adjustment toward hitting for more power would do him great favors.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Who Trout is is the product of everything Trout has been to date. If he tried to hit for more power, he could become a whole different sort of hitter.

9:13	Comment From DTSS Which volcano would the Nationals have to become to pass the Reds for the second wild card?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Glacier Peak

9:14	Comment From Godd Till Tiger cub questions – how good do you think Jose Iglesias and Nick Castellanos will be?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Iglesias should be an everyday shortstop who’s visibly good enough in the field to keep people from complaining too much about his offense. I don’t love Castellanos as more than a more or less average player but he could look like a borderline star at his peak

9:17	Comment From Steve This time next year, who’s better? Taillon/Cole

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Cole

9:17	Comment From SoCal Ok, now explain cryovolcanism.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: “A cryovolcano (colloquially known as an ice volcano) is a volcano that erupts volatiles such as water, ammonia or methane, instead of molten rock.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryovolcano

9:19	Comment From David Where’s Tanaka pitching to open next season?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: As a complete shot in the dark, Yankees!

9:19	Comment From DNA Rank these for 2014: Matt Carpenter/Pujols

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: You already did

9:21	Comment From zack where would Matt Carpenter rank as an NL MVP candidate in your mind?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: lower top 5

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: so, probably 5

9:21	Comment From FS Is Mike Matheny underachieving as a Cardinals coach? Do you feel that their record should be better than it is?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: If anything, maybe it should be a little worse, considering the obscene performance splits w/RISP and w/ nobody on

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: He’s done well to keep the team highly competitive despite so many issues with the pitching staff. It’s probably frustrating to see the Pirates right there with a considerably worse run differential, but I don’t think it’s at all fair to lay that at Matheny’s feet. Way too much we don’t understand to just pin things on managers

9:24	Comment From _David_ I never root for the Mariners to lose, even for draft placement, it just doesn’t feel right. Now, however, doesn’t losing expose the roster flaws at a time when the ownership really needs to look at things critically?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, that could be excused as rough bits of development from young players getting used to the major leagues. Development taking place now instead of in 2014?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I do think this team has made a lot of things clear. They don’t need to be made clearer by further losing in the final two weeks. It shouldn’t be a mystery what’s going on, if ownership decides to take a critical look

9:25	Comment From Bret What do you think about Jon Morosi?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I think he is very good at drawing attention

9:25	Comment From The other Kyle Can we assume, based on your earlier ranking, that you believe Cingrani has a secure rotation spot next season?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t speak to the Reds’ plans, but, he should

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I’d like to revise, though, and knock Cingrani down another spot

9:28	Comment From zack Is Ron Washington gone if they miss the playoffs entirely?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: there would be difficult conversations

9:28	Comment From Mike Walker or Salazar for 2014?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Salazar

9:29	Comment From Larry What do you think of Burch Smith?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: there’s a half-decent starter in there, trying to come out

9:30	Comment From zack How much more money would Adam Wainright have gotten if he hadn’t signed that extension with the Cardinals?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe $10 million or so, but he did well for himself and he’s 32 years old

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Shares a birthday with Cliff Lee, except that Lee is three years older. Three years ago, Lee signed for five years and $120 million

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Wainwright got 5/$97.5 million, and Wainwright isn’t what Lee was back then. At least, that isn’t the perception

9:33	Comment From Kris Why won’t Fredi play BJ and Uggla to try and get them going in time for the playoffs? It’s so frustrating.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Probably because they’ve had a thousand plate appearances to get going, and they’ve sucked

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Also, Upton’s started 3 of 4 games?

9:34

Comment From Levi
What is Mike Stanton’s trade value? He clearly has some serious contact issuesand it doesn’t seem to be getting much better. He is a good hitter (just not a top 20 hitter type) but being a zero/negative on defense and as a baserunner, how much do you think teams will be willing to part with in this era of greatly valued prospects?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: He actually has a career +16 UZR

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: The strikeouts have always been there, and over the last 3 calendar years, among batters with 1,000 PA, Stanton’s 12th in wRC+, ahead of Robinson Cano. He’s 23 years old.

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: His value remains enormous, especially considering his salary, and though the Marlins should’ve dealt him an offseason ago, they’re still going to do well when they cash him in somewhere around the upcoming winter meetings. He’s a great player overall, and he also has the skills that executives love to over-value

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Stanton’s probably going to cost somebody three top-five prospects

9:39	Comment From Bip Have you looked into the possibility that outside pitches are more likely to be called for strikes when pitcher/batters have different handedness? My theory is that the “lefty strike” is a thing because LHB face more RHP, and there is a “righty strike” for LHP

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I’m having trouble finding a link, but I seem to recall some investigation that showed that the lefty strike was much more prominent for RHP than for LHP when working against LHB

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: This could be of some use: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12965

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Same-handed pitchers will be more likely to work inside than opposite-handed pitchers. It seems that the called zone is driven in large part by catcher target, so if the catcher is setting up away more often…

9:43	Comment From Why Rangers. It hurts.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: It has to help, though, knowing that they’ve snapped right out of a couple of these things in the recent past

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I know that’s a difficult thing to appreciate in the moment, but at least they’ve rebounded from previous attempted collapses

9:44	Comment From zack If Ubaldo and the Indians don’t exercise the mutual option, what kind of money is Ubaldo in line for?4

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: It’s an $8 million club option, no?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll exercise the club option

9:45	Comment From Tim Regarding batted ball data, what level of change in a given FB/LD/GB rate from one season to the next would lead you to confidently conclude that it was because of an adjustment? Or are there other variables at play?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I’d never reach that conclusion just based on one stat alone, but a difference of, I don’t know, 10% in GB rate would cause me to dig deeper

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I pretty much only look at GB%, and I’m talking about 10 percentage points, not 10 percent, by the way

9:46	Comment From Biggy How much of a setback is it for the Cubs if Rizzo and Castro continue to not progress? Who are you more optimistic about in the long term?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty major setback. I’m more confident in Rizzo

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Castro’s had years of not getting better. Rizzo has less than half the plate appearances

9:48	Comment From Seth What’s one thing you wish FanGraphs did different?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: We could probably stand to have an actual active Twitter account, instead of just a link feed

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know, maybe that’s a stupid answer. I wasn’t prepared for this question

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Perhaps a few more articles containing enlightened commentary, instead of mostly just analysis

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: But I could be easily talked out of that

9:50	Comment From Marcus A. Is the AL Wildcard Race one of the craziest playoff races we’ve had in the last few years? Say what you will about the 1 game deciding someone’s fate, the MLB accomplished its mission of having more contenders or at least “contenders” down the stretch.

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: This is why I became a fan of the one-game wild-card playoff. Sure, it’s dumb to have a season end because of one game, but it’s also kind of dumb to have a season end because of a short series. The playoffs don’t determine who the best teams are in baseball. Embrace the non-meaningful insanity

9:52	Comment From Nick C Is there a correlation of BB% to height?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: presumably a small one

9:52	Comment From _David_ This is the first time forever that I haven’t really cared about watching the Mariners, even when they were terrible(er). Is there something wrong with me now or was there before and now I’m better?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing wrong with not wanting to watch a shitty product, just becuase you feel like you ought to be loyal to it

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Loyalty can take you so far, but eventually after enough losing people are going to check out. Not completely — a Mariners fan is a Mariners fan for life — but fans become less involved, just waiting for a reason to re-invest

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Bandwagon fans kind of have it figured out

9:54	Comment From Mike Why do pitchers point to the sky on fly balls? Does that help an outfielder?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Mostly habit, cemented at a very young age

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t not help, but it can sure look silly when the batters hits the baseball 450 feet

9:55

Comment From CouvCPA
I clicked on Dave’s link showing the WAR for AL 3rd basemen after he noted that Miguel is no longer #1. Obviously the items that stick out are his negative fielding and base running. My question is, how his .443 OBP is taken into consideration for his base running? In other words, is he negatively effected for being on base more often than most or positively effected?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I believe that would be negative — he’s a negative base-runner, who’s had more opportunities to base-run, on account of his OBP. But he’s at -3.4 runs on the season. Hardly anything to care about

9:56	Comment From Biggy Is Peter Angelos really cheap enough to waste this team? I mean, couldn’t Cano about put them over the top? Has he always been like this?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: He hasn’t always been like this because the Orioles have seldom been any good

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Cano would obviously be a hell of a splash but I’m not at all convinced he’s getting away from NY

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: 2013 payroll is up $8 million from 2012. We’ll see if they hike payroll again going forward while the window is still open

9:58	Comment From Randy That Trout clip is screaming for a Jeff Sullivan GIF column.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. “Trout’s really awesome.” “Ha! Silly pitcher.” Don’t know if there’s enough depth.

9:58	Comment From Bip Hitting groundballs is not a problem for hitters necessarily, correct? I would think hitters who hit a lot of fly balls have the potential to hit a lot of homers, but are very unlikely to hit .300