Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/18/15

September 18, 2015

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: It’s baseball chat

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Live!

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Coming to you this time from sunny San Diego. I assume it’s sunny but I am inside on a computer doing a baseball chat

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Chat with me

9:16	Comment From Mike Jeff, fun DH facts. EE has been worth ~3 wins in the last 47 games, 39 at DH. Second highest total from what I can see. He is so oood he only has to play half the game.

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: And then he gets to rest for the hitting part!

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: it’s kind of crazy — Josh Donaldson is the MVP, and if it weren’t for a little BABIP luck, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista would rank just as well as hitters

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: This isn’t new news, but that lineup is insane

9:17	Comment From marc Coghlan’s slide on Kang, Dirty or clean? should there be a “Posey” rule for plays like that?

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: By the way baseball’s long been played, that was clean — he was close enough to the bag. Nothing exceptional about that slide. So the argument then becomes: should we change this? Why do we allow this? And I wouldn’t mind the rule being changed, so that runners have to slide directly to the base. I don’t know if there’s as much pressure to adjust this as there was with the catchers, but it seems like it should happen

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Take-out slides don’t need to be part of the game. The game won’t be missing anything if they go away

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Some people might refer to that as the “wussification” of baseball, but literally every single one of those people is an idiot

9:20	Comment From Zonk How many PAs does it take to get a decent sample for plate discipline stats?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: You can have a pretty good idea after as few as, say, 100 trips to the plate. Players usually don’t lie with their plate-discipline performances

9:21	Comment From Jim If Mike trout passes Donaldson in HR and BA does he win MVP?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe more interesting: what if the Angels still sneak into a playoff spot? They’re not far away

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: For the past month or so it’s been assumed that Donaldson was playing for something and Trout wasn’t, but if they both make it to the postseason, it’s virtually tied

9:23	Comment From Daniel Carroll How would baseball be different if it had been devised using the metric system? For reference, 90 ft is 27.4 meters (27 m is 88.6 ft, 30 m is 98.4 ft).

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Would it be different? What’s so special about 60 feet and six inches?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: And if I recall the baselines were set after trial and error. So they arrived at that eventually, after field tests

9:25	Comment From Gary Lindor ROY yet?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Used to be easy to say “they’ll take the better hitter” and point to Correa, but now Lindor has basically caught him in hitting stats. So right now, it’s Lindor

9:26	Comment From Phillies113 Over the past 30 days, Lindor has pretty much BABIP’ed his way to leading the AL in WAR, while Correa has been effectively replacement level over that same time frame. Will this recent play affect the voters’ decision on AL ROY

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: It sure will!

9:27	Comment From marc todays a sunny but dark day in Pittsburgh 🙁

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The worst thing about sports is when the players who you like watching play them aren’t able to play them

9:28	Comment From Ralph Harvey for Mookie, who hangs up?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Betts appears no worse a player, he’s a position player, and he’s under control a few years longer

9:30	Comment From Ampersand There’s been talk in DC of the Lerners signing Harper to a Stantonesque contract this winter, but how much money would that take? And how much leverage would ownership have after an MVP season? I just don’t see it

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see it either. Stanton would provide the example framework, but if Harper pushes this he could end up with the craziest free-agent sweepstakes in the history of professional sport

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: At the current rate, he’ll be turning 26 a couple weeks before hitting the market. He’ll be positioned like Jason Heyward. Heyward is about to make something close to $200 million. Now imagine if you could erase all of the hitting questions

9:33	Comment From Anthony I know Kang isn’t as high-profile a player as Posey, but how likely do you think we are to see a rule change about take-out slides at 2nd?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I can see one happening in a few years. Less momentum here, based on specific injury examples, but it kind of follows — if you move to reduce contact/injury at one spot, why not others?

9:34	Comment From Josh G What do you expect from Albert Pujols in 2016? He’s fallen apart in the second half partially due to his foot issues, but he was so good in the first half.

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: Until there’s any reason to believe he’s totally over his foot problems, he’s going to be inconsistent. He doesn’t have the full power of his lower half, and every good hitter needs that. Given that he’s been plagued by these issues for years, it seems like it’s just going to be part of him.

9:35	Comment From Marvin Who do you think makes it out of the Cardinals/Cubs/Pirates shootout and into the NLCS?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Cardinals rally past Cubs bullpen in the NLDS

9:36	Comment From Robbie Matt Davidson is still in AAA. That means he’s pretty much a non-priority for CHW, right? Seems like the best case scenario would be to bring him up, hope he hits a couple HR, and then trade him for a AAA reliever or something.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: He’s had a horrible year, following a horrible year

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: State of the White Sox: Matt Davidson is stuck in Triple-A, and Mike Olt is in the majors

9:37	Comment From Comegys In your Sano article you had a BP link to who faced the toughest opponent pitchers. The top of the list is almost all AL batters. Why?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: AL is better. Half the NL sucks

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: You know how the Mets keep scoring runs? They’ve barely played anyone in the second half. They’ve whooped the Nationals, yeah, but the rest of the schedule has been pathetic

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Which is not their fault! It just is what it is

9:39	Comment From Daniel Carroll You think the M’s try for Cespedes if he doesn’t sign with the Mets?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I could’ve seen them trying before he had this season, but I think he’ll be priced out. They have a few long-term contracts already on the books

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: But then, maybe they try for Chris Davis. Or maybe Matt Wieters

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: (Probably not Wieters) (But maybe)

9:43	Comment From Zonk What kind of contract do you think Alex Gordon is in line for? And will he be play up to it?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Situation’s kind of similar to Heyward, except that Gordon is years older

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: So obviously that limits the length to five or six years. But the salaries should be similar. Not hard to see Gordon surpassing $100 million if he tests the market and doesn’t settle for staying in KC

9:44	Comment From Josh G Travis d’Arnaud has been fantastic this year, posting a 152 wRC+, but in only 222 PA due to injuries. How much are you buying his improvements going forward?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Good hitter, I like him, but he’s benefited from a weak stretch of opponents. He’s not this good

9:45	Comment From HappyFunBall So what’s the general angst level there in Sunny San Diego over the Pads missing the playoffs? More, or less less than the angst over that cloud that briefly blotted out the sun for a few minutes yesterday?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Hold on, let me ask my mom

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: She says she’s weeding

9:46	Comment From Kharlie I’m kinda surprised you haven’t written an article on Chris Colabello yet, seems like your kind of guy/story.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: So many interesting individual stories on that team. Still probably need to do something on Estrada too. Thank goodness the offseason is long

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Colabello fun fact: he’s gotten a lot more aggressive swinging at the first pitch, and against the first pitch, he’s got 28 hits out of 51 at-bats

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: He looks like a potential swing-change guy, but maybe he’s just a guy who took a little longer than usual to figure it out

9:49	Comment From hoytt Do you think that when things like AAV and duration of a contract even out the fact that a NL pitcher gets a couple of at bats during a game is something that a pitcher who likes to hit takes into account?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, some pitchers think about that. Some pitchers are really into hitting. Some pitchers are not! Small but real factor.

9:50	Comment From Spclxk Should the Jays try to lock up Stroman to a Longoria-style contract?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Too much risk right now. The thing about Longoria was he was so immediately reliable. They can try to do something with Stroman next year

9:50	Comment From Guest Do you think the Astro’s will miss the playoffs with their recent slump?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, but then again, I didn’t think they’d get swept in a four-game series by a rival team I kept calling worse than them

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: So what the hell do I know?

9:51	Comment From Robbie You think Kivlehan has a chance to contribute to SEA in 2016?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Needed to have a stronger year. Could still end up with a bench role, but he could’ve made himself the first baseman

9:52	Comment From Hector Olivera what to expect from me next season ? HR production and average

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not going to lie to you

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I have no idea

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Given the blend of my having no idea and the fact that teams have scouted Olivera and liked him, I mentally think of him as a league-average player for 2016

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Call it the Marcel approach

9:54	Comment From Kharlie Even assuming his 2013 was a fluke, Khris Davis has produced the 17th best ISO in MLB over the last two seasons. Where does that put his trade value? I’m thinking a package similar to what Evan Gattis returned?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: is this really someone named Kharlie asking a question about someone named Khris

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Gattis isn’t a bad comp, and with the attention paid to right-handed power, Davis is appealing. People would probably like to see him hit a little better outside of Milwaukee, and Gattis comes with more apparent raw offensive upside, but that proposal is in the neighborhood

9:58	Comment From Robbie Rollins vs. Seager is the sort of legendary prospect vs washed-up vet showdown the LA circus needs and deserves, T or F?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Think of it this way: the Dodgers might have the smartest front office in baseball. If they don’t, they’re close. Certainly they have one of the most creative and progressive. If they end up sticking with Rollins, what does that tell you?