Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/25/15
| 9:12 |
: Time to baseball chat
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| 9:12 |
: Are you ready?
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| 9:12 |
: I don’t care if you’re ready
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| 9:13 |
Hey Jeff, wondering how you think the Cubs’ middle infield plays out in 2016? Follow up – who has the brighter future, Russell or Baez? |
| 9:14 |
: The second part’s easy — I’m a lot higher on Russell than I am on Baez
|
| 9:14 |
: As much as I love the Baez skillset for its highlight potential, I don’t like its consistent-performance potential
|
| 9:15 |
: It wouldn’t come as a total shock to me to see the Cubs move forward with Castro/Baez as second-base possibilities. Castro will be an obvious offseason trade candidate but they might not feel like it’s the right time to strike given his reduced stock and late-season improvement
|
| 9:16 |
What’s with the east coast bias in the times of these chats? The only reason I’m up this early is because my dog is trying to have puppies under my bed. ;-p |
| 9:16 |
: Traffic seems to most closely follow east-coast patterns and there sure as shit wouldn’t be anyone in this chat later on a Friday afternoon
|
| 9:18 |
Pedro Alvarez hits majestic home runs, but his defense has reached the point where he can’t even consistently catch the ball. If you’re Clint Hurdle, what would you do the rest of the year? Play harrison at third w/ Ramirez at first? Or just replace Pedro with Morse? |
| 9:19 |
: There is no easy solution here. The Pirates don’t have a quality first baseman. So it ought to be more mixing and matching, plugging in the occasional Morse. Alvarez, probably, is a barely-replacement-level player. Same for Morse. You always have to weigh the overall picture, offense *and* defense, and they don’t have a good candidate
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| 9:19 |
The M’s have shutdown Walker, which seems reasonable. What I wonder about is his future. A few years ago, people talked about him as a possible ace. Is that still the feeling, or has that changed as time has passed? |
| 9:21 |
: This is sort of arbitrary, but from May 29 on this year, Walker posted 17 walks and 118 strikeouts. 3.62 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 3.45 xFIP. He grew more confident going right after hitters and the results were obvious. Still has some home-run problems to work out, and his secondary stuff remains inconsistent, but there’s a No. 2 in here. Probably not an ace, but “ace” is a difficult threshold
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| 9:22 |
Do you think park factors overcome Arrieta’s .2 ERA difference? Despite Kershaw’s WAR lead, I’m pretty sure he won’t win. Also quality of opponents is considerably higher for the Cubs. |
| 9:23 |
: Looking at the Baseball Prospectus quality-of-opposition statistic — Kershaw’s opponents, this year, have been 4% worse than average. But, Arrieta’s: 3% worse than average. So it almost evens out
|
| 9:24 |
: Splitting hairs at this point. It’s kind of like Kluber and Felix last year. There’s more than one excellent, perfectly deserving candidate. No great reason to prefer one over the other(s). The shame is only one person can win but there’s no key to getting this right by staring at the numbers more and more
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| 9:24 |
: From one perspective, it’s impossible to get this right. From the other, it’s impossible to get this wrong
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| 9:25 |
: Kershaw, Arrieta, Greinke — whatever. They’re all amazing
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| 9:25 |
Would it be smart of the Red Sox to trade Shaw to like, Milwaukee? Or someone somewhere who believes? |
| 9:25 |
: In general, it’s not a bad idea to try to find the people who believe in a given player the most, and then try to work out a swap
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| 9:27 |
I’m generally pretty stupid, but I think I have a good question for once. How on earth is fangraphs able to calculate a defensive war for honus wager, who started his career in 1897? but it is unable to calculate his k% prior to 1910? |
| 9:27 |
: First of all, the defensive WAR won’t be accurate. Kind of obviously. There’s limited play-by-play data going back forever but that means what we have is a best guess. Probably very little signal among the noise
|
| 9:28 |
: But if I’m not mistaken, strikeouts weren’t officially kept track of until around 1910
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| 9:30 |
Pittsburgh talk radio is already handwringing over whether Alvarez should start the Wild Card game. Assuming a Cole-Arrieta match-up where runs will be at a premium, would you want his bat in the line-up or his glove off the diamond? |
| 9:31 |
: The annoying thing about Arrieta is he doesn’t have a platoon split. He’s awesome against righties and lefties alike so it’s not obvious you can just go with platoon considerations
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| 9:31 |
: You’ve got similar types of players in Alvarez and Morse. Pick whichever one you like more as a late-inning pinch-hitter and put him on the bench. There’s no great way to handle this
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| 9:32 |
With regards to top prospects, what do you think a reasonable expectation is of them? I know everyone thinks a player ranked in the top ten of top 100 prospects list is destined to be a superstar, but the odds of that are way lower than people think. I would think the front office looks at it as a success if a top prospect turns out average to above average WAR seasons for multiple years and fans are disappointed in anything less than multiple 6+ WAR seasons. Like if Byron Buxton’s WAR then next 5 years (assuming regular playing time) were: 1.3, 1.6, 3.6, 3, 2.4. How many people would take that right now? |
| 9:33 |
: People get so hung up on ceilings. Everyone wants aces; they’re less interested in No. 2’s and No. 3’s. And people hate the idea of wasted potential. They see those players as “underachievers” which sort of misunderstands how hard baseball is to play in the majors
|
| 9:34 |
: Many people wouldn’t take that Buxton output, but off the top of my head, it’s probably not a bad midpoint
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| 9:35 |
: Recall: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
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| 9:36 |
: Top-10 hitting prospects recently have averaged about 16 WAR during the control years. That’s six or seven years
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| 9:38 |
CJ Nitkowski had a short piece on JABO about how people may be too quick to jump on the Greg Bird/Travis Shaw bandwagons. Thoughts on their future(s) as MLB players? |
| 9:40 |
: I like Bird more than I like Shaw though that’s probably not an uncommon opinion. Wouldn’t be surprised if Shaw wound up kind of a bench guy or rover. His defensive flexibility helps. Bird, like many lefties, is a good fit for his park, and while he doesn’t have a clear path to everyday playing time in 2016, those are old players standing in his way. He can get hundreds of at-bats
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| 9:41 |
Would the Jays rather face Texas or the the Astros/Yankees winner? |
| 9:41 |
: I don’t think it’s the Yankees — you’ve got Miller/Betances who could combine to soak up three or four innings if needed
|
| 9:41 |
: Wait, that was a stupid thing to say
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| 9:42 |
: Let me readjust — I still don’t think it’s the Yankees, because they could over-weight their Miller/Betances usage. So the general idea is right
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| 9:43 |
: With the Rangers and Astros, you’ve got two staffs with lefties as the aces, so that’s not an issue. And though this might get me shit, I still think of the Astros as the superior opponent, so then I think the Jays would rather face Texas
|
| 9:43 |
: But it’s pretty close so I doubt they’ll mind too much whatever happens
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| 9:44 |
Let’s say we have a hypothetical NL catcher. Bats like .270/.360 career, about 15 Homers a year, above average defense and baserunning. About 29 yo. How much would he get on the open market today? |
| 9:45 |
: Russell Martin got 5/$82m as an older catcher. Better defensively than your example, considered a true team leader. This catcher might get 3-4 years, $50m-ish
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| 9:45 |
Miggy has been given more days off than normal. Will they shut him down with nothing to play for? |
| 9:45 |
: I doubt he wants to be shut down
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| 9:46 |
Does Javier Baez for Michael Pineda or Nathan Eovaldi make sense? Would more need to be thrown in on the Cubs end? |
| 9:46 |
: Doesn’t make sense
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| 9:47 |
Any rational idea of what is going to happen during the Rangers/Astros series coming up? I could literally see justification for a sweep by either side at this point. The AL West is screwy this year |
| 9:47 |
: Well, the Astros miss Hamels, so that’s a thing
|
| 9:47 |
: But before the last series, I maintained that I think the Astros are better, and then they suffered a four-game sweep. So
|
| 9:48 |
: The big difference this time, of course, is that the Astros are at home. They’re 51-27 at home, 29-46 on the road. Granted, the Rangers have actually been better away from home, so it’s not everything, but if I had to guess I’d say the Astros take 2 of 3 here and the Rangers still win the division
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| 9:49 |
Why do my guys fail to beat the other NL Central teams? |
| 9:49 |
: 8-8 against the Cardinals!
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| 9:49 |
As a yankee fan im baffled by how many of us dont seejoe as a good manager, is there anyway to explain to them that donnie playing 1st for us years ago doesnt make him a better fit? and is this why we get a bad rap as fans? |
| 9:49 |
: The bad rap is probably because Yankees fans take the playoffs as a given, which is enviable and annoying
|
| 9:50 |
: But, yeah, Girardi seems to do a lot more right than wrong. Impossible to evaluate a manager on his actual performance but Girardi keeps things steady in New freakin York. He’s aces in my book
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| 9:50 |
Which comment infuriates you more: “This pitcher is great because he has so many wins” or “This hitter is awesome. Look at how many RBIs he has.” ? |
| 9:50 |
: The first one is dumber
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| 9:51 |
: Pretty sure RBI correlate better with actual performance than pitcher wins
|
| 9:52 |
: But I don’t get infuriated by bad baseball arguments. Waste of good fury. I save that fury for climate-change denialists and bakeries that close 5 minutes before the listed closing time on the entrance
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| 9:53 |
September rosters have made games almost unbearable to watch, with pinch hitters and pitching changes occurring every other out after the 5th inning. If you were selected to change this roster rule, what would you change? Would a 25-man roster, with a separate 5-man starting pitcher rotation roster ever be adopted or even considered for the MLB? |
| 9:54 |
: If you don’t move the roster-expansion rule to April instead of September, then yeah, I think it makes sense to make teams declare active and inactive rosters. Give them, say, 22 or 23 players, so they can leave out the starting pitchers they know they won’t touch
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| 9:54 |
: It’s so stupid to have three dozen players available
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| 9:54 |
Matt Williams a goner? |
| 9:55 |
: I’ll say 60/40 no. There’s a strong sentiment within the organization that just about everything went wrong this year and it’s just one of those “shit happens” things. The challenge will be convincing the people in charge of that same feeling
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| 9:55 |
Related to the Cubs infield question, would you rather have Castro or La Stella going forward? |
| 9:55 |
: Castro
|
| 9:55 |
east coast is better! |
| 9:55 |
: No it’s not
|
| 9:56 |
Istill think it would be fool hardy to trade castro. especially trading low. |
| 9:56 |
: Which is why these will be weird negotiations. The Cubs know how good Castro has been; other teams know how bad Castro has been
|
| 9:56 |
Do you think Stearns will trade Lucroy? To whom, even? |
| 9:56 |
: Can’t imagine Lucroy gets moved coming off these late-season concussion problems
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| 9:57 |
: The biggest issue, very obviously, concerns Lucroy the person. I feel like an asshole talking about him as a roster asset, but *in terms of being* a roster asset, this is a very poorly-timed concussion. Lucroy would’ve made all the sense in the world to trade this winter. Now, it’s put Stearns in a really difficult spot
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| 9:58 |
What surprise team do you see making the playoffs next year? |
| 9:58 |
: Don’t even know who would count as a surprise
|
| 9:59 |
: Maybe the Diamondbacks if they splurge on an ace?
|
| 9:59 |
: That’s not me saying I think the Diamondbacks will be a sleeper. It’s just, other teams wouldn’t be surprises, I don’t think
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| 10:01 |
Jacoby Ellsbury…..just a down season, or start of an ominous decline? |
| 10:02 |
: Wouldn’t be surprised if this were related to his earlier knee problems. I haven’t looked at his swing, but if he’s got a weaker base, that could explain the horrible numbers since his return from the DL. Give him an offseason of rest and look for a better performance
|
| 10:02 |
How embarassing is it to be sent home for Bruce Rondon? Has that ever happened before? Do you have any insight into that situation? |
| 10:03 |
: I don’t have any particular insight on this case but every so often a team will discipline a player publicly when the private conversations aren’t taking effect. I remember people thought the Mariners were cruel for openly criticizing Jesus Montero, but at some point that actually seemed to get the message across and Montero started to focus more on his own well-being
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| 10:03 |
: Doesn’t mean this’ll stick, with Rondon, but it could happen. It’s just another way to try to motivate
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| 10:04 |
should the jays make osuna a starter next year or keep him in the BP? |
| 10:05 |
: I’d try to start him. He has the three pitches and he’s had success against righties and lefties. Too early in his career to shove him permanently into the bullpen
|
| 10:05 |
Marcus Stroman or Seager as the most valuable September addition to WS odds? |
| 10:05 |
: Stroman
|
| 10:05 |
What free agent signing from this past offseason already looks like a disaster? Hanley Ramirez? |
| 10:05 |
: Yeah, without question the Red Sox guys
|
| 10:06 |
: And Victor Martinez
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| 10:06 |
Mixing in Pedro is fine, but what do you do for the WC game vs Arrieta? Yesterday’s game was this decision in a microcosm, game winning HR, 2 flubs at 1B |
| 10:07 |
: Here’s my little rule of thumb: if you have a really difficult choice between a couple different options, it doesn’t matter which way you go. They’re all about even, and that relieves the pressure of decision-making
|
| 10:07 |
: So you just pick Alvarez or Morse and you live with it. Every team has its strengths and weaknesses
|
| 10:07 |
Ned Yost said Greg Holland may have torn his UCL last August! How the hell has been pitching for over a year (and doing a good job up until recently)? |
| 10:07 |
: If you look at Holland’s historical velocities, there’s a very conspicuous drop-off late last summer
|
| 10:07 |
: So that’s almost certainly when this happened
|
| 10:08 |
: But there’s a difference between a fully-torn UCL and a partially-torn UCL. Pitchers have pitched with partial tears plenty of times, with mixed results. Obviously, Holland did what he needed to be able to do for a few months
|
| 10:08 |
: But then that made things worse, and so Holland this season was worse, and now he probably needs Tommy John instead of resting and rehabbing. It was probably worth it
|
| 10:09 |
: Didn’t Ervin Santana pitch years with a partially-torn UCL?
|
| 10:10 |
IIRC, you said on the podcast that you’re 6’5″ — is that right? If it is, I have a followup question: what’s the main advantage of being so tall? What’s the main disadvantage? (I’m 5’9″ and the tallest person in my family, so I have no frame of reference for this.) |
| 10:11 |
: Yeah, 6’5. Main advantages: more respect, easy to reach things, helps me cheat at the climbing gym. Main disadvantages: spider webs and airplanes
|
| 10:11 |
is aaron sanchez destined to be a reliever or does he still have a chance to become an okay starter? |
| 10:11 |
: Can’t ever write off anyone but given what we know now, Sanchez is a probable reliever
|
| 10:12 |
: Has it in him to be sort of a right-handed Zach Britton
|
| 10:12 |
“The shame is only one person can win but there’s no key to getting this right by staring at the numbers more and more.” Judging by Dave’s most recent article, i think he is going to try his best to stare more. |
| 10:13 |
: No harm in doing so. I believe Dave has a vote, and there are interesting things to think about. It generates publishable material. But I think the ultimate takeaway is always going to be, hey, all these guys are super good and super close to one another
|
| 10:15 |
Hey Jeff! Good work this week, as always. I know you probably aren’t an expert on MLB labor relations, but is there any mechanism that exists for the Players Association or individual teams themselves to file grievances/appeals/whatever against the actions of certain members of the umpiring union? And secondly, why does the umpiring union seem completely shielded from any sort of disciplinary action from the commissioner? |
| 10:15 |
: Check this out! http://m.mlb.com/news/artic…
|
| 10:15 |
: “Umpire Bob Davidson has received a one-game suspension for his repeated violations of the Office of the Commissioner’s standards for situation handling, Major League Baseball announced today.”
|
| 10:17 |
: I can’t answer the first part. What I do know is that umpires do face discipline; it’s just seldom announced publicly. Which many consider a problem with the discipline
|
| 10:17 |
As a Mariner fan, what should my emotional reaction to watching fans of other formerly inept franchises like the Royals celebrating playoff berths be? |
| 10:17 |
: Bitter in the moment, encouraging after the moment
|
| 10:18 |
: You might think your team will forever blow, but, the Blue Jays are about to end their playoff drought. Pirates fans and Royals fans are on top of the world. PIRATES FANS AND ROYALS FANS
|
| 10:19 |
Is there any type of innings threshold at one position to qualify for a Gold Glove? |
| 10:19 |
: Indeed http://www.cbssports.com/mc…
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| 10:20 |
What do you think Carlos Martinez’s ceiling is? Is this just a great season or is he truly becoming a top pitcher? |
| 10:21 |
: He gets strikeouts, he gets grounders, and he’s doubled his strikeout rate against lefties as he’s improved his changeup. He could conceivably get better still; he looks like a No. 2 who’ll occasionally resemble an ace
|
| 10:21 |
: There are reasons why the Cardinals didn’t want to give him up for Cole Hamels
|
| 10:22 |
As a Cub fan, I am nervous about giving a potential 4-5 year deal to Dexter Fowler. Worried that any speed decrease will push him to a OF corner, where Cubs don’t have room. Justified? Your thoughts? |
| 10:22 |
: If Fowler gets five years, the Cubs won’t be the team giving them to him
|
| 10:24 |
Who could you win more games with: 25 Mike Trouts, 25 Miguel Cabreras, 25 Clayton Kershaws, or 25 Rick Ankiels (when he was playing)? |
| 10:24 |
: I’ll take the Trouts. They’ll adequately cover both offense and defense, which are more than half the game
|
| 10:24 |
: Tempting to take Kershaw, but he probably can’t defend for himself that well
|
| 10:25 |
Does Rich Hill go 7IP with 10K’s again tonight against Baltimore? |
| 10:25 |
: No, but, sure, why not
|
| 10:25 |
: I love this story. It’s so stupid and baseball
|
| 10:26 |
Well wouldn’t playing Harrison at 3b and AmRam at 1B be best? |
| 10:26 |
: Ramirez isn’t good either
|
| 10:27 |
At this point would you rather have Shields or Lester for the remainder of the contract? |
| 10:27 |
: Lester
|
| 10:29 |
Thoughts on Inciarte? Very underrated campaign. Add a few more walks and you’ve got a great young player. The OF in AZ looks bright. |
| 10:29 |
: Low-ceiling player. Reminds me a little bit of older editions of Craig Gentry. Useful, and can be a quality starter if you believe in the defense, but I don’t think Inciarte has much going on offensively
|
| 10:30 |
: The very limited power potential also gives him limited walk potential
|
| 10:32 |
Who would you start in a playoff series if you were Toronto? |
| 10:32 |
: Price/Stroman/Dickey, then probably Buehrle because Estrada has at least a little experience working in relief
|
| 10:33 |
who was that one star prospect who turned down two contracts and took a day job? did he sign this year? |
| 10:34 |
: I don’t know if you’re referring to Matt Harrington, but that one’s always special to recall https://en.wikipedia.org/wi…
|
| 10:34 |
in 5 years what will look worse…the adam joness/bedard deal…or the Jake Arrieta for 2 months on scott feldman trade? interesting to see the Os get it both ways |
| 10:35 |
: The Jones deal was worse, because it was more predictably bad. But the Arrieta deal will probably *look* a bit worse
|
| 10:35 |
Will the Cubs regret the Jon Lester contract, in your opinion? |
| 10:35 |
: If they do, not much
|
| 10:35 |
Kris Bryant is really good. He also strikes out a TON; on pace for 200+ this year. Cause for concern? |
| 10:36 |
: Always been a part of it. This year, he’s succeeded with the strikeouts, answering the pressing question. Fewer and fewer reasons to doubt him
|
| 10:36 |
Do you think Carlos Gonzalez plays for the Rockies next season, or is he going to be an off season trade candidate? HIs road/home splits are crazy, but I would LOVE to see him play LF for the Red Sox and hit doubles off the monster all season long… Maybe a trade centered around Jackie Bradley Jr to the Rox for Cargo? |
| 10:36 |
: Offseason trade candidate, but might run into issues with the number of free-agent outfielders available
|
| 10:36 |
Is there a GM email list that they use to talk to each other? Like will a GM just put out something like, “hey just so everyone knows, x player is available” like I do with my fantasy league? And then GM 2 is all, “oh we’re good, thanks. how are your wife and kids?” And then GM 3 is like, “goddammit stop replying all on these.” |
| 10:36 |
: I hope so
|
| 10:37 |
Do AL teams have an advantage in the WS do to having a true DH on the roster? |
| 10:37 |
: I don’t really believe in the DH advantage
|
| 10:38 |
Chances of Matt Wisler reaching his low #2, high end #3 ceiling for the Braves? |
| 10:38 |
: Absolutely dreadful against lefties. He’s got plenty of work to do
|
| 10:39 |
How to you value Denard Span as a FA? |
| 10:39 |
: More affordable alternative to Dexter Fowler
|
| 10:40 |
: Wonder if he gets something like the Melky Cabrera contract
|
| 10:41 |
how likely is it that subs use 1-2 bullpen games per playoff series? No one other Arrieta/Lester seems like can g more than 4 innings |
| 10:41 |
: That’s not the way they’ll go — they’ll just have short leashes. Even in the second half, Hendricks and Hammel have gotten strikeouts
|
| 10:42 |
Does Texas still try to move Choo? |
| 10:42 |
: They’ll place some calls, but he probably sticks around
|
| 10:43 |
What ever happened to Profar? |
| 10:43 |
: He’s rehabbing. Will try again in 2016. Don’t know yet if the Rangers intend to have him play some winter ball
|
| 10:43 |
Ever spend any time in Waterton Lakes /Glacier National Park? |
| 10:43 |
: No but it’s on the list
|
| 10:44 |
A depressing question…have we seen Trout’s best season? His defense and baserunning look like they’re in free fall. |
| 10:44 |
: If anything, his defense is better than a year ago
|
| 10:44 |
: And his baserunning is fine; he just isn’t trying to steal so much anymore
|
| 10:45 |
: But he’ll probably never top the WAR/game mark he reached in 2012
|
| 10:45 |
: At some point however I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a 200 wRC+
|
| 10:45 |
Is there anyone who needs to be banished from baseball more than Joe West? |
| 10:45 |
: Angel Hernandez?
|
| 10:46 |
What do you see from Trevor Bauer going forward? He took a nasty dip in the second half. |
| 10:46 |
: A lot of attention on a pitcher whose stats alone don’t warrant it
|
| 10:46 |
: He seems like a pitcher who just isn’t built to have consistent command
|
| 10:46 |
Who wins the AL Cy Young? Dallas Keuchel or David Price? |
| 10:46 |
: Price
|
| 10:47 |
you hiked patagonia correct? how long was your trek? have you done any other South America hikes? I’m going to Peru in a month (in case you have any suggestions) |
| 10:47 |
: Haven’t been to Peru, I’m afraid. But my favorite hike I’ve ever done was the hike to Fitz Roy in perfect weather
|
| 10:48 |
Is there a WS matchup you’re rooting for? Why? Personally, I’d be interested to see the Mets’ young pitchers vs. the Jays’ power bats. |
| 10:48 |
: Plenty of interesting potential matchups but I think I might most be rooting for Jays vs. Cubs. I’d love those atmospheres and I’d love the Cubs trying to break the skid against an absolute juggernaut. Talk about boss level
|
| 10:48 |
How do I explain to my daughter why the 70 year old manager has to wear a uniform? |
| 10:48 |
: You can’t. It can’t be done
|
| 10:49 |
Do you have any thoughts on the Red Sox Rich Hill? 34 year old career reliever, throws 43% curveballs, his walk rate has been ridiculous in his career, but suddenly, he’s locating well and has had two impressive back-to-back 10 strikeout games against the Rays and the Blue Jays. Is he for real? |
| 10:49 |
: I assume, no, he hasn’t suddenly figured out strikes, but I love following this and I have every hope that it continues
|
| 10:49 |
Would Jorge De La Rosa be good if he didn’t pitch in Coors? |
| 10:49 |
: He’s okay and he pitches in Coors
|
| 10:50 |
: His career numbers aren’t great away from home so I don’t think Coors is preventing us from observing a hidden ace or anything
|
| 10:50 |
After a resurgent year, could Votto’s contract be moved in the next 1-2 years? It doesn’t have a lot of value, but could be a big weight on a rebuilding Reds team |
| 10:50 |
: I expect they’re going to try, but there aren’t that many teams in the market for such an expensive first baseman
|
| 10:51 |
The Royals are looking at significant roster turnover next season. Are they in the worst shape of any playoff bound team for next year? |
| 10:51 |
: Yeah, probably, but then people thought the same thing about them this year
|
| 10:53 |
: Still, no Cueto, probably no Gordon, no Zobrist, probably no Holland, no Madson — this could absolutely turn into a sub-.500 team. Real challenge facing Dayton Moore on the other side of the playoffs
|
| 10:54 |
IS our lack of true knowledge of injuries the single biggest object in the way of correct projections? |
| 10:54 |
: Huge factor, yeah. And I’m interested by the fact that projections haven’t seemed to get markedly better over the years. We keep thinking we’re learning more but if there’s progress, it’s so minuscule.
|
| 10:54 |
I still can’t get over how much fun a Dodgers – Jays world series would be. Kershaw vs Price, Greinke vs Stroman, those lineups, oh baby! |
| 10:54 |
: Hard to think of a World Series that *wouldn’t* be fun
|
| 10:56 |
a lot of hub-bub about the mets not wanting to face kershaw and greinke in LA because of the shadows. Shouldn’t it work both ways? and shouldn’t it really be not wanting to face those guys anywhere? like they would magically be worse in citifield? |
| 10:56 |
: Greinke, home: .225 wOBA
Greinke, away: .225 wOBA |
| 10:57 |
: Kershaw shows a split, but he’s awesome everywhere
|
| 10:57 |
: It’s a nothing argument. Like you said, the more important thing is trying to just not face those guys at all
|
| 10:58 |
If the Jays and Royals end the season tied for first overall in the AL do the play a extra deciding game? If so who does each team start? |
| 10:59 |
: No extra game. Jays get the better seed because they beat the Royals 4 out of 7 times
|
| 10:59 |
What do you think about how instant replay is working on tag plays? I don’t like that players are called out for being one inch off the base while fielders hold the tag for 10 seconds. I call it “getting out the microscope.” Should replay be for obvious blown calls only, or should they keep it the way it is? |
| 11:00 |
: As long as the rules are what they are, a player should be out if he comes off the base. Kind of an annoying use of replay, but that doesn’t make it invalid. The bigger problem is when there are replay reviews and umpires go on to make seemingly inexplicable calls anyway after the fact
|
| 11:02 |
Who would be your NL Cy Young pick? Manager of the year? |
| 11:02 |
: I guess Arrieta and Matheny? I don’t feel great about either choice.
|
| 11:04 |
I always like looking at career WAR numbers post integration because the replacement level player just got so much better with the deeper talent pool. I usually look at it post 1947, but is that really the date we can call the league “integrated”? Shouldn’t we be looking at something like ’51 when Willie Mays started? He was the last MLB guy to also play Negro Leagues, right? |
| 11:04 |
: Kind of up to you where to draw the line
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| 11:04 |
: Consider: http://sabr.org/bioproj/top…
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| 11:05 |
: The game was 98% white in 1947. 88% white in 1956. At what point does the percentage of white players reflect a game that’s sufficiently integrated?
|
| 11:05 |
: Things didn’t really “stabilize” until the 90s
|
| 11:05 |
In regards to being short vs tall, flying is significantly better for short people |
| 11:06 |
: Impossible to argue against. Flying blows
|
| 11:06 |
Please explain to me why Jeff Samardjiza’s WAR is higher than Danny Salazar’s! |
| 11:07 |
: Samardzija has thrown 33 more innings, and his FIP is much lower than his ERA. Obviously, that is what makes FIP-based WAR controversial
|
| 11:07 |
Should the Dodgers let Greinke go and go after Price? He’s younger and they;’d get a draft pick without having to lose one. |
| 11:07 |
: Might very well prefer the guy they know.
|
| 11:09 |
Are right handed batters worse at hitting sinkers thrown by left handers than left handed batters are at hitting right hander’s sinkers? Seems that right handed batters get frozen by the inside sinker a lot. |
| 11:09 |
: You know, I don’t know the answer to that
|
| 11:10 |
: But I know lefties have hit righties for a .746 OPS. Righties have hit lefties for a .740 OPS. Based just on that, it’s probably similar
|
| 11:11 |
Can you do a pitch comparison on Stroman’s changeup this year? He claims he worked on it a lot this summer at Duke and it looks good. Would like to see if it compares to someone other than Kyle Drabek now |
| 11:11 |
: Perhaps I will do this! I’ll wait until we have a little more data though.
|
| 11:11 |
: Off the top of my head, though, there’s a chance the changeup is the same, movement-wise, and it’s just getting more consistent in command
|
| 11:11 |
Will Kris Bryant be able to cut down on his K% a bit in the foreseeable future? |
| 11:11 |
: Yeah, strikeout rate tends to improve a bit as players advance from their rookie seasons
|
| 11:12 |
to the mariners fan – mets fans are pretty pleased right now as well… |
| 11:12 |
: And to think how horrible things were for Mets fans just literally two months ago!
|
| 11:12 |
Gut reaction, who wins the NL WC game? |
| 11:13 |
: Gut says Cubs, but only by a run or three. With a couple innings against the bullpen…
|
| 11:14 |
if there were an otherwise terrible team that happened to have the best player in the league, how bad would the team have to be for even the most analytically minded to say that player shouldnt get the mvp? like, how bad would the nationals have to be for everyone to be like “nah, harper’s great, but his performance really meant nothing?” would that even happen? |
| 11:15 |
: I don’t think it would ever happen. Value is either dependent on context or it isn’t, and if you don’t care about whether a team makes the playoffs, then the record doesn’t matter. In 2003 Alex Rodriguez won the MVP while the Rangers went 71-91. Without A-Rod they might’ve lost 100 games. And even the traditional voters went for A-Rod
|
| 11:15 |
: Granted, that year Rodriguez got just six first-place votes. But still, a winner is a winner
|
| 11:15 |
In the middle of an at bat during a Reds/Rockies game earlier this year Bob Davidson ripped off his mask and shouted “Don’t be a bitch!” at Todd Frazier while he was on the bench. |
| 11:18 |
If the Phillies paid Cliff Lee the 12.5 million buyout (instead of 27.5 option) and then offered him a QO, would he take it? |
| 11:18 |
: He’d be stupid not to
|
| 11:19 |
: What is he even doing?
|
| 11:19 |
: Last I heard, he was rehabbing without surgery, but I haven’t heard a peep in months
|
| 11:20 |
How do you envision the NL East the next 4 years? Nationals running away with it and the Mets and the rest hovering around .500? |
| 11:20 |
: Battle between the Nats and Mets in 2016
|
| 11:20 |
: Ditto in 2017
|
| 11:20 |
: Pointless to try to go further. I think the Phillies will be relevant before the Braves are
|
| 11:21 |
Why are managers so reluctant to put 2 lefty hitter back to back in a lineup but 2 righties back to back is no problem? |
| 11:21 |
: Righties are better against righties than lefties are against lefties
|
| 11:21 |
How many players each season actually get a chance to tie Fernando Tatis’ 2 grand slams in an inning record? It seems most players could easily go through their entire career and not have an opportunity, due to dependance upon teammates getting on base. |
| 11:22 |
: Yeah, I imagine that hardly ever happens
|
| 11:22 |
: Would be fascinating to have data!
|
| 11:23 |
: this year, Xander Bogaerts leads baseball with 25 plate appearances with the bases loaded
|
| 11:24 |
: Twice has he batted with the bases loaded twice in the same *game*
|
| 11:24 |
: April 12th (4th and 8th innings) and September 5th (4th and 8th innings)
|
| 11:25 |
25 Jeff Franceours or 25 Bumgarners? |
| 11:25 |
: Bumgarners!
|
| 11:25 |
Is Kevin Kiermaier the best CF you’ve ever seen? I’m having internal battles with my long dormant Andruw Jones loyalty. |
| 11:25 |
: I can’t put him on a tier above. But he’s in the upper tier with the others, like Andruw Jones and pre-health-problems Franklin Gutierrez
|
| 11:26 |
Are you in favor or against a computerized strike zone? I mean, has baseball gotten to big where it’s not about humans playing a game anymore regulated by other humans? |
| 11:26 |
: If they were to correct for the problems, I’d be for an automated strike zone, but I’m also happy to accept the version of the game that has balls and strikes called by humans
|
| 11:26 |
: All right, it’s time for me to go
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| 11:27 |
: So! Thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days
|
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
*Slams face into keyboard and comes up with something more intelligent than what usually comes out of my brain*