Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/30/14

September 30, 2014

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Everybody ready to baseball chat?

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: One minute late this time! New recent record!

9:02	Comment From Jim Is Fangraphs looking at replacing FIP with SIERA as the main ingredient to pitcher WAR?

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think we’ve ever even discussed SIERA in our meetings for years

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Granted, Dave and Dave talk about things I’m not privy to, but I haven’t heard anything to that effect

9:03	Comment From Xolo Best team that didn’t make the playoffs?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Mariners, and this isn’t even my bias talking

9:03	Comment From Stephen PLAYOFF BASEBALL!!!!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Half the teams I most want to bandwagon will be eliminated today 🙁

9:04

Comment From _David_
A writer I respect interpreted Michael Saunders’ recent comments as indicating Saunders belief that he was headed elsewhere. They speculated that the Mariners would likely be willing to part with him for very little. Saunders hasn’t been durable, but is 27 and is coming off a half season where he played at a 4 win pace. One could argue it could be worth gambling on a breakout. The Mariners outfield is the Mariners outfield. What is going on here?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners would be stupid to non-tender Michael Saunders, so they will not do that. I suppose it’s possible they could trade him, but for the time being he’s part of the 2015 picture

9:05	Comment From Guest Green Light Going Right

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Curtis Granderson led baseball with 13 3-and-0 swings

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Jose Bautista had 11, Oswaldo Arcia had 10

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Four different players hit two 3-and-0 dingers this season: Seager, Norris, Granderson, Dom Brown

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Granderson was 6-for-9 with two doubles and two dingers

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: That seems like too much

9:07	Comment From San Diegan Does it make me a bad baseball fan that I don’t care about the Royals?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: No. There’s no such thing as a bad baseball fan. Enjoy it how you feel like enjoying it

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I couldn’t bring myself to hop on the Pirates’ bandwagon because of the Steelers and the Penguins. How stupid is that? But that’s how my brain felt

9:09	Comment From benjamin What could the Twins get for Hughes this offseason?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Some value, for sure, but there might be skepticism of his being able to replicate that in a more pressure-packed environment and in a different ballpark. I think the Twins are best off hanging on and hoping for a solid organizational 2016

9:09	Comment From Jake Why is WAR such a poor metric?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Because your standards are literally impossible to meet

9:10	Comment From #KeepNotGraphs How many hashtags does it take to sway Cistulli’s icy heart?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: More than you’ve got

9:10	Comment From Guest Are you as baffled by the decision to start Volquez as everyone else is?

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: I mean I’m never going to be comfortable with the idea of Edinson Volquez, but I think in these one-off games the starting pitcher identity is considerably less important than people think. The Pirates know enough not to let Volquez twist in the wind or like try to get into the 7th inning. They’ll be aggressive getting to their bullpen

9:11	Comment From Brad who has a greater love affair with the fan base, King Felix or Jeter?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Hard to answer because I don’t know how Derek Jeter has ever really felt in his heart. Felix makes it obvious. Let’s say that Felix has a more passionate love, but he’s also much younger. You know what happens to your idea of love as you age

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Or maybe you don’t. Sorry, Brad!

9:13	Comment From Dewey I’m not sure the Braves trading Gattis is going to resolve any of their issues, it’s not like he has through the roof value.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: They could probably do well in trading a cheap righty bat with plus power. Trumbo market idea. And the Braves might be trying to get over that kind of player profile. Besides, how many people see Gattis as a legitimate long-term outfielder?

9:13	Comment From Ben Any thoughts on Astros hiring Hinch?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: All I really have to say is, even if Hinch was a mess his first time around, you have to operate under the assumption that people get better as they learn lessons from experience. So I don’t think it’s fair to think Hinch will be just as seemingly lousy as he once was. He’s gotten smarter, and from the Astros’ side I’m sure they like his open-mindedness and trust in numbers

9:15	Comment From Sam Who wins the CY Young in the AL, Felix or Kluber?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Keep getting the sense it will be Felix, keep getting the sense it should be Kluber

9:15	Comment From Ethan Biggest WTF contract signed this winter?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Someone giving Kendrys Morales millions of dollars

9:16	Comment From Nuke LaLooshs left eyelid oh man i’d pay to see Puig face Bumbgarner in the playoffs!!!

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: If you pay enough, you could get a ticket!

9:16	Comment From Dave Stewart Any hope for me in Arizona?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: There’s not no hope

9:16	Comment From someone Deliberately open-ended question: which team do you think most “deserves” to win the World Series this year?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what I’m supposed to do with “deserves”

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: But I feel like Billy Beane deserves a title just so he can finally have one

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: Does he deserve it the most this year? I don’t know. But I think he’s deserving. Are the Dodgers deserving for spending a lot of money? Sure, in a different way. Are the Orioles deserving for being all weird-like? Absolutely, in a different way. Dang it this is going to bother me for hours

9:18	Comment From John Jon Lester puts his Boston house on the market… Should Realtors start looking for a condo nears Epstein’s Lincoln park house for Lester?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Sure if they have the time in the day

9:20	Comment From Guest Could the Pirates bring in Liriano in the 3rd or 4th inning if Volquez struggles?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, sure, they could, but they opted against Liriano because he’d be on short rest and I think they have enough faith in the rest of their bullpen

9:21	Comment From Michael Given that the Nationals are the only team other than the M’s to have never played in the Series, are you rooting for or against them? (Seattle fan, I’m for. LAST BELLE TO THE BALL!)

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Well I know I’m not against it. But other teams don’t really have an effect on the way that I feel about the Mariners. I guess if the Nationals do finally make it, then we have something kind of embarrassingly special to ourselves

9:22	Comment From Kyle Interviewing for a front office position for my local minor league team. I don’t have a question, just wanted to share my excitement!

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Good luck and godspeed!

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Anticipate the demands!

9:23	Comment From John Why is everyone considering Lester the Cubs top target? Why not Scherzer?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Probably the whole front office/Boston connection. They’ll be interested in both. Probability is they get neither

9:25	Comment From eknpdx Aramis Ramirez seems like he could flourish in the AL with time off at DH 40% of the games. Seems like he’s been under appreciated over the years…

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Chance he sticks in Milwaukee for 2015, but there’s definitely still ability in there. For some reason when I think about him my mind automatically goes to his dreadful 2002. That was in 2002. I can’t seem to memorize an updated version of Aramis Ramirez

9:27	Comment From Mrs. Machado Anyone take a chance on Yonder Alonso next year?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The Padres

9:27	Comment From dogbone Who pitches a better game,Bumgarner or volquez? Pitt has the better off+def.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I love Bumgarner, but I figure it’ll be closer than people seem to believe

9:28	Comment From ChrisMonks Thanks Jeff for the great write-up on USSM after the final game. After his end of season tail-off, what kind of offer would you put to Chris Young?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: 1/$5m, with innings incentives? Or maybe 1/$5m with a vesting second-year option? He’s not going to have much of a market on account of, you know

9:29	Comment From Sam Scouts excluded, how much statistical knowledge (in the mathematical sense) does the average front office analyst have?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Enough. You don’t actually need to be a math whiz in order to be able to analyze baseball. It’s fun to show off, but pretty much all the things really worth knowing and acting on, you can uncover with more simple and familiar techniques.

9:30	Comment From Ben Will Jack Z invite Kendrys Morales back as the Mariners’ DH. If so, what’s that contract going to look like?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably going to be Billy Butler

9:30	Comment From Gila Monster Can we have a Pirates-Royals World Series Jeff? Would this make the league office and television networks weep?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: The league office would probably like it and the television networks can go to hell for all I care

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: what in the hell is Fox Sports 1? where am I supposed to find that?

9:31	Comment From Murphy Is there any reason whatsoever that would explain why Corey Dickerson strikes out so much more on the road than he does at Coors Field? http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Last season, he actually struck out a little more at home than on the road

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: But this year, the Rockies as a team struck out 17% of the time at home, and about 25% of the time on the road. So Dickerson’s split wasn’t unusual

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: The Rockies tend to run big strikeout splits because pitches break differently in Colorado and elsewhere and they have a lot of trouble adjusting. They get used to the non-breaking versions of the pitches they see at Coors

9:33	Comment From Brad Do you have any coding knowledge? If so, what languages?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I’m incompetent! I’m nothing without Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball!

9:34	Comment From Guest How would you fix the Brewers? Seems like there is little movement that could be made with that team due to payroll and farm depth issues.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, it would help to just not have Jean Segura be a pile of crap. Ryan Braun was worth 1.2 WAR — it would help to have him recover from his hand issues.

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: But you’re right, they don’t have a lot of flexibility. I liked the Parra pickup, and I like the idea of maybe moving Braun to first base now, but that’s a team that might want to invest in low-cost starting-pitcher flyers, putting trust in Jonathan Lucroy to be able to make them better than they are

9:39

Comment From JayT
There were tons of transactions yesterday, and it seems like they were all recalling guys that are on the 40 man roster from the minor league teams. What exactly is going on here? Wouldn’t they have already been on the active roster when the rosters expanded? http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/tran…

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Okay so this took me a little bit, I apologize

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Every player on optional assignment has to be recalled no later than they day after the end of the regular season

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to guess that these are the players who weren’t promoted to the expanded rosters in September, and that the difference now is that the teams don’t have to pay these guys major-league salaries

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I might be wrong — I”m not terrific with MLB’s complicated transaction rules

9:43	Comment From MickyisFine The best potential FA hitter for this years market is ____. Pitcher _______. ?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Hitter might be Victor Martinez, position player might be Hanley Ramirez or Yasmani Tomas, pitcher is your pick between Scherzer and Lester

9:43	Comment From Linklater Who is the 2015 JD martinez?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Could very easily not be one. Thing about these guys is they’re unpredictable. Let’s see what Dan Farnsworth has to say in December. But just for the hell of it, let me check the boards and make a little guess

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: The hell with it, how about Cameron Maybin?

9:45	Comment From re: Grandersons 3-0 swings where did you go to find that information?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseball-referen… and the Play Index

9:47	Comment From dogbone With how Pittsburgh’s system is setup, will their pitchers consistently outperform their fip in the future?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Last year, they beat their FIP by all of 0.15 points. Over the last three years, the starters have a 3.77 ERA and a 3.78 FIP. I think there’s room for them to do better by a little, but I doubt it’s going to be a dramatic thing

9:48	Comment From ChrisMonks Is a final podcast on the cards at USSM when @msea1 gets back off holiday?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: We’re going to keep doing them in the offseason when he’s back. We’re sponsored now so we have to give a shit, professionally

9:49	Comment From Anthony Do you know if anyone has run the numbers on how starting Cole affected the Pirates chances of advancing? My guess is it’s a pretty small impact, not justifying all the criticism Hurdle’s taking.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if anyone ran the numbers but I am certain it was a small impact

9:49	Comment From Wilder Card As a lefty third basemen, Seager seems to address one of the Red Sox most pressing needs. Could they pry him away without giving up Betts or Bogaerts?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:50	Comment From Thomas Is it wrong to trust the season-to-date projections more than the ‘normal’ ones at this point, considering injury issues that are better handled by season-to-date, and wear-and-tear, aging, etc.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: As a whole, the normal projections will still be better, but there will be individual cases in which those projections are still missing something

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Like, I’d trust the normal projections on the Tigers, but I wouldn’t trust them as much on J.D. Martinez

9:51	Comment From neal is dan duquette actually good?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: he’s not the laughing stock people thought he was. Remember how crazy it was when the Orioles were trying to find a GM, just any GM? Case in point, people learn from prior experiences. People aren’t static

9:52	Comment From Erik Also, what’s the appropriate soundtrack for a Jeff Sullivan chat?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: The soft patter of falling rain on the window while a vacuum runs down the hall

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I might be biased by current events

9:53	Comment From MickyisFine Is it even worth it for my Rockies do end up trading CarGo?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Not after the season he had

9:55	Comment From Chef Jim Fix the Yankees in three sentences. Go.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Healthy Tanaka, keep Headley, sign Hardy? So much for 2015 hangs on Tanaka’s health, because that’s like 5-6 wins right there

9:56	Comment From Pennsy Total Runs is Bill James’ own version of WAR. Mike Trout led in 2012, led again in 2013, but this season he is tied with Jonathan Lucroy… for second, behind Anthony Rendon. Why ISN’T Rendon the NL MVP?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Because Kershaw was better

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: And for whatever it’s worth, the numbers indicate that Rendon was relatively “unclutch” if that’s something that matters to you

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Rendon’s an awesome player, awesome awesome player, like his all-around contributions, but in this given year I prefer Kershaw and maybe Lucroy too

9:57	Comment From Jim Is Gardenhire, formerly of the Twins, more responsible for the failures of the team than the front office?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: The front office is many people and Gardenhire was one people. Gardenhire didn’t sign contracts or make trades.

9:58	Comment From Guest Bobby Abreu have an HOF case?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Borderline with even a sabermetric voting pool. Next-tier type

9:59	Comment From Chef Jim Would defensive metrics be more accurate if they took hit/fx into account?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: A little, yeah, but they really need to start by incorporating shifts somehow