Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/3/13

September 3, 2013

8:59	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys, we’ll get going in a couple minutes. Finishing off the last of breakfast, as is always the case, every single time.

8:59	Jeff Sullivan: I spent the entire long weekend in the North Cascades and have next to no idea what’s been happening in baseball lately. As such this is going to be the worst live baseball chat you’ve ever experienced.

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Educate me!

9:02	Comment From Brian S Why on earth is Kevin Gregg still a Cub?

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: He’s still the same Kevin Gregg who signed a minor-league contract after the start of the season, plus five months

9:02	Comment From Fun fact of the day Pedro Astacio, 1999: 5.04 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 38 HR… and a 5.9 rWAR, good for 5th in the NL. Coors Field!

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Playing with old Coors Field numbers is every bit as fun as playing with old Barry Bonds numbers.

9:03	Comment From Dr. Met You’re on time… to say you’ll be late. Awesome welcome back

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: At least you guys get an official warning.

9:03	Comment From Guest What did you have for breakfast? This is an important issue.

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Goods from a bakery in Leavenworth. You should all go to central Washington, and Leavenworth.

9:03	Comment From E in D Barry Zito is pretty awful. Does he get a major league contract next year?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll probably sign a minor-league contract and get a major-league job out of camp

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll sign somewhere and fans will say “ehh no risk” and then the manager will be like “well I can’t turn down someone with Barry Zito’s experience” and a more interesting youngster will be returned to Triple-A for a month and a half until everyone realizes the mistake

9:04	Comment From juan pierres mustache hey guys jeff doesn’t know what happened this weekend, no one tell him

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I understand the Rays lost a lot

9:05	Comment From _David_ Trout and Cabrera…It’s happening again isn’t it?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Not exactly — the gap is smaller and now we have the “benefit” of precedent. And now we don’t get the Robinson Cano WAR interloper

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t realize the extent of Trout’s WAR advantage in 2012 over Cabrera

9:06	Comment From Tom The sky might be falling for the Cards’ rotation.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: But probably it is not

9:08	Comment From E in D Danny Espinosa: National next season? If not… where?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know where he’s going, but he’s going

9:08	Comment From Jay Given the way the White Sox do things, do you think Marcus Semien has a good shot at a starting gig in April with big league club?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: The door is clearly open and a real shot exists, but I’d be surprised, at this point, if he’s starting in the majors next April

9:11	Comment From zack Will John Axford be the Cardinals next successful project?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Still has his stuff, still difficult to hit a lot of the time. I suspect he’s going to be a good reliever for St. Louis, but not an amazing one

9:12	Comment From _David_ Ackley confidence meter?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: 4

9:12	Comment From Mike Rizzo Do I need to use a bit more Sabermetric skill when doing my job? had a few bad signings.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Sabermetrics aren’t going to save you from making bad signings, but you could stand to pay more attention to the people who feed you data

9:13	Comment From Three Fingers Stump Do you think Wainright is pitching through an injury or just a month long slump?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Month-long? Before the two Reds games, he dominated the Cubs and the Braves

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: We could be seeing evidence of a little fatigue, but I’m still a big Wainwright fan, as you should be

9:15	Comment From Ian I saw Dave Chappelle Saturday and he was just as great as ever. The Hartford incident barely phased him. You should go.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know for whom this advice is intended but it seems like good advice

9:16	Comment From LarryA The cubs seem to have a lot of money coming off the books this offseason, plus the Cubs should be able to place in the top 3rd of MLB spending, will they make a few big free agent signings?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll try hard

9:18	Comment From zack Should the orioles try and pounce on a Wieters extension given his poor season?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Wieters would give them a discount, so I don’t think this season really changes things. He still seems destined for free agency

9:20	Comment From zack Who should the Rays use in a playoff rotation: the artist formally known as Fausto Carmona or Hellickson?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Close enough to pick by opponent. If they’re lefty-heavy, probably lean toward Hellickson, but if they depend on a bunch of righties then it ought to be Hernandez

9:21	Comment From Guest Do you like baseball?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Less than I used to

9:21	Comment From Spooks How does the Syrian crisis relate to A-Rod?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Roughly simultaneous

9:22

Comment From Goat
Hey Jeff! I am curious to know if anyone has done an analysis of win values of batters ekeing out long ABs? At a guess it would work something like taking the opposing pitcher’s WAR, dividing it by the total no of pitches he throws in a season, and comparing the number of pitches the batter in question faces to the average pitches per AB against that pitcher, and multiplying that difference by pitcher WAR/pitch… Would the difference between batters be big enough to move the needle?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: Probably not going to find anything. Lots of talk about the value of driving up a pitch count, but then even if you’re successful you just get into the bullpen a little early and relievers are better than starters. It’s a complicated subject and sometimes you do want to drive up a pitch count but ordinarily things just aren’t that simple

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: People have looked at the effects of long at-bats but then you get into a bunch of selectivity variables and whatnot

9:24	Comment From Tim There’s nothing official, but it sounds like Ned Yost is really checked out, even though his team is technically still in the race. Who (within Dayton Moore’s limitations) would you like to see manage the Royals in 2014?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Buddy Bell because when I was driving home yesterday I thought Buddy Bell still managed the Royals and I want my instinct to be right again

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Not many less interesting subjects than trying to narrow down managerial candidates. They’re all the same and we don’t know crap about them

9:25	Comment From Erich Rickie Weeks has been pretty awful for two years, and is in the last year of his contract next season (with a completely voidable 2015 option). Over/Under on a date when he gets released next year?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Traded

9:27	Comment From zack Did you see the Rays all terrible person line up from this weekend? It had Josh Lueke, Yunel Escobar, Luke Scott, AND Delmon.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: They say Yunel Escobar has been a peach. Who knew that was possible!

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: And we try to analyze chemistry. So stupid.

9:27	Comment From Guest If Mike Trout is so good, why are the Angels so bad? Seriously, how are they this bad when they have the luxury of the best player in the leagye playing for peanuts.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball baseball teams aren’t basketball teams and you need more than one awesome player at a time.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball baseball teams. Okay.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: *Because

9:28	Comment From Nick C Yankees are only 2.5 games back in the wild card, do you see them at least being in the mix in the last couple days of the season?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: 7 games against the Red Sox, 4 against the Orioles, 3 against the Rays. It’s a really tough schedule down the stretch and I don’t love the Yankees’ chances although one notes that they finish on the road in Houston

9:30	Comment From TimmysHair Do you think there’s any reason for recent NL dominance in World Series? Or just a weird streak?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Remember when the AL went undefeated in 13 consecutive All-Star Games?

9:33	Comment From zack More likely to be the opening day second basemen for the cards next season: Wong or Carpenter?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Carpenter

9:33	Comment From Raymond Cespdes’ K-rate near 24% and OPS around .715. And he’s almost 28. Was last year an outlier?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: Can’t really have an outlier when you have two data points. Cespedes is better than this and worse than that. Not a whole lot meaningful has changed, and he still has all the talent in the world. He’s just not a superstar. He’s a fine player who can look like a superstar sometimes, and act like one.

9:35	Comment From Marco Do you follow NESCAC baseball?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: sometimes I barely follow NL baseball

9:35	Comment From Matt Is there a decent argument that MVP has to be from winning teams? Because if Stanton hit 70 HRs on the Marlins, it would be for nothing because the Marlins would still be awful, making his value meaningless.

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: The idea is that value can only exist at and beyond the playoff win threshold. Logically, no, that doesn’t make any sense, because you can have valuable players on bad teams. Valuable players on bad teams keep those bad teams from being even worse teams. But obviously enough people believe a team needs to be good to vote for a guy, and that’s the argument. That many people can’t be wrong!

9:37	Comment From Guest Do you the think the A’s have enough talent to win the world series?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, of course

9:37	Comment From KJ Wilhelmsen is back… and should we care? Does he get any kind of high leverage gig this year? Next year?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing is going to be handed to him this time around

9:39	Comment From West Do you think the Cards will trade (or try to trade) Matt Adams? Seems like a lot of potential value to have n the bench.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’ll push anything, because I think they’re comfortable with the flexibility he provides, and he isn’t actually that good of a player

9:40	Comment From SeaBass Are the White Sox the skinniest team in baseball? Sale, Ramirez, etc.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: worthy of investigation!

9:41	Comment From Nick C Have you noticed how many times Puig has had to leave a game early due to a minor injury? It seems like an extremely inordinate number.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: He probably plays with a lot of aches and pains and the Dodgers have no reason at all to push him at a time when the games are irrelevant. They can take it easy on him now so he has more to offer when things matter again

9:42	Comment From STiVo Does Michael Morse bring a platoon split to Baltimore that can be used to the Orioles’ advantage?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: He’s a DH who doesn’t suck at hitting, which is good for them

9:43	Comment From zack In a hypothetical scenario where he avoids any suspension and was a free agent, what kind of contract do you think AROD would get offered?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: One year, cheap. Too many headaches.

9:45	Comment From Gerrit Cole Why am I so damn hittable?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: You aren’t, really, but you throw a lot of strikes and you throw a lot of fastballs

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Your strikeouts are getting better!

9:45	Comment From Tom Derrick Goold in StL is reporting Waino may have been tipping pitches to the Reds. So there’s that.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, that is a good thing to tell a pitcher who’s been struggling. That way you convince him it’s just a little mechanical tweak, and nothing he has to worry about. Sometimes, maybe, pitchers tip their pitches, but most of the time it seems like there’s nothing to these suggestions

9:46	Comment From _David_ Felix has a bit of a rough patch recently,then does everything right yesterday, strikeouts, walks, hr, tons of groundballs, nothing hit hard, and gives up 3 runs in 6.6. He must be kind of frustrated.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Imagine my alarm when I was driving home and turned on the radio and heard within a minute that Felix was out of the game with an injury

9:47	Comment From BobThe Catcher Do you have any suggestions for the feeling of disappointment I have over there basically being only two interesting races this year?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: They’re really interesting races, and then there are the playoffs

9:48	Comment From Wookie D Are the M’s due to spend a ton of cash in the off-season this year with so many youngin’s factoring into 2014 ball?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: There is a sense within the game that the Mariners are preparing to spend a lot of money

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: They have basically no commitments outside of Felix, and they have holes all over

9:49	Comment From Kalamazoo What do you think is going to happen with Scherzer and the Tigers in terms of a contract?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Tigers will do what they need to to make sure he doesn’t get away

9:50	Comment From GSon AL WildCard heating up.. NYY’s, O’s and Indians.. who do you like?.. why?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Rays and A’s, because I’m boring

9:50	Comment From zack What kind of contract will Josh Johnson get this offseason? One like LIriano’s with a lot of incentives built in for innings totals and effectiveness?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Higher base, no club option

9:52

Comment From Gila Monster
I like to think of the Trout vs. Miggy this year by looking at improvements. Trout raised his wRC+ by 14. Miggy raised his by 38. Both their defense is worse than last season. Miggy would join Bonds,Bagwell,Thomas, and McGwire as the only players in 20 years to post 200+ wRC+. Trout has gotten better. Miggy has taken his game to a new level.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Cabrera’s new level is probably worse than Trout’s regular level

9:53	Comment From Todd Will Bogusevic get a long look for the Cubs? Seems like he has a lot of potential and decent power/speed blend. Maybe a 15/15 guy?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: beware the 29-year-olds who were recently discarded by the Astros

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: just a bench sort

9:54	Comment From Mike Does Cabrera already have the MVP locked up? What if he only plays 10 games this month and Trout gets to 100 RBI and 30 HR

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: just no way for Trout to win this thing, realistically

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: it would be up to Chris Davis pushing the Orioles into the playoffs

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Hamilton won that MVP with 133 games played

9:55	Comment From Pew Research Conducting an opinion poll of interweb baseball chat hosts, (terrible selection bias and response rates); How important is playoff pitching rotation construction? Explain, briefly.

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: It is, of course, important to get your best pitchers the most starts, but the difference is small between an optimized order and a non-optimized but reasonable order, and within any given series there’s entirely too much noise to be able to blame rotation construction for a series win or loss

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Do everything perfectly in the playoffs, in terms of strategy, and you might boost your WS odds by a few percentage points

9:57	Comment From Kalamazoo Is Matt Garza going to get hideously overpaid?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Not hideously

9:57

Comment From Eskpert-man
Kershaw seems to be the consensus favourite for NL cy, even among sabrmetricians, despite the fact that he doesn’t lead in the two important dips, Siera and park adjusted xfip; does the innings lead over Harvey and the wide results gap over Wainwright push him over the top? Or are even the best attempts at creating a comprehensive dips flawed in their quality of contact evaluation

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw appears to have demonstrated an ability to pitch beyond his xFIP, awards should be based at least in large part upon what really happened, and I don’t even know what SIERA does

9:58	Comment From SeaBass Why do you like your job less? Is it because it is more or less your job now? Like if I were a porn star…would I eventually end up liking sex less?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Turn a hobby into a job and it isn’t a hobby anymore

9:59	Comment From Guest Would you rather the Mariners go for Choo or Ellsbury? What do you think will actually happen?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Ellsbury

9:59	Comment From Evan If Jose Fernandez continues to dominate, is there anyway that Puig still manages to steal NL ROY?