Joey Votto Is the Best at Another Thing

Think of some facts about Joey Votto.

Chances are that your brain just made a number of connections. The first things that came to mind were an image of Votto, the fact he plays first base for the Reds, and perhaps his number and his contract. He’s also Canadian, which you may have known. Once your brain had covered some basic personal data regarding Votto, you probably moved to a summary of him as a baseball player. His elite on-base skill, his patience, his power (when healthy) and the whole controversy about how aggressive he should be at the plate. Beyond that, perhaps you considered his WAR, his freakish ability to avoid pop ups and maybe even the fact he’s known as a contemplative guy.

The preceding paragraph is a flyover view of Votto. It’s the kind of thing an average fan of an American League team might be able to recite about him. He’s the Reds’ really good left-handed-hitting first baseman who has a big contract and is known for his high on-base percentage.

So while I hardly expect the average person or even the average FanGraphs reader to be a Votto scholar, there is one significant component to his game that doesn’t seem to receive enough attention: Joey Votto is extraordinarily good against lefty pitching.

Votto debuted in 2007 and has collected 1,472 PA against left-handed pitching. His slash line against southpaws during that span is .298/.399/.505, which is a .394 wOBA. He’s come to the plate 3,285 times against right-handed pitching and has hit .316/.434/.547 (.417 wOBA). That 23 point wOBA split doesn’t seem terribly exciting right off the bat. Since 2007, Votto is third in overall wRC+ among hitters with at least 1,000 PA, so that fact he’s good against righties and lefties doesn’t immediately seem like a revelation.

Take a step back and look at wOBA against left-handed pitching since 2007 for hitters who have at least 500 PA against lefties. Votto’s .394 wOBA ranks 19th. To find another lefty, you need to drop down to Daric Barton — at 75th — and his .361 wOBA in 577 PA. Chase Utley is next — at 83rd — with a .359 wOBA in 1,663 PA. Hideki Matsui, Nori Aoki, David Ortiz, Robinson Cano, Bryce Harper and Prince Fielder slot in between 117th and 126th with wOBAs — ranging from .343 to .347.

Keep in mind this is a low PA threshold. Asking for 500 PA against left-handed pitchers in a nine-year window should catch a lot of players.  It’s 333 hitters, 95 of whom are left-handed. You’re obviously going to miss players whose careers ended early in the window and players whose careers began late in the window, but that’s always true. Among the 95 left-handed hitters who got a decent number of plate appearances against left-handed pitching in the past nine years, Votto is significantly better than all of them. He appears to be uniquely positioned as the left-handed batter least vulnerable to being neutralized by a good southpaw.

To give you a sense, left-handed hitters had a .295 wOBA against left-handed pitching in 2015. It was .324 against right-handed pitching. Putting it up against that backdrop makes it seem ordinary, but there’s a lot you miss when you just consider the overall average.

For example, many left-handed hitters don’t start if a tough lefty is on the mound, or they get pulled when a tough lefty comes into the game. You wouldn’t pull Utley, Ortiz or Cano when someone brings in Andrew Miller — but you would definitely pull someone like Alex Avila or Adam Lind. So in reality, the LHH vs LHP split oversamples good left-handed hitters and makes the average true-talent split much higher. So let’s take a look at those 95 lefties and plot their overall wOBA against their wOBA split for the same sample. Votto stands out big time.

LHB Batter Split More Names

This chart essentially communicates that left-handed hitters who are good overall are usually good because they hammer righties. There isn’t one way to be a valuable player, but Votto basically stands out as the only super-good, left-handed hitter without a sizable platoon split. Now, of course, we don’t want to confuse an observed platoon split over multiple years with a true-talent platoon split. You always want to regress a player’s observed split depending on the number of plate appearances and performance against both types of pitchers. For our purposes, though, the observational data is sufficient. Votto has done something remarkable, even if random variation drives some of its unusual nature.

You can also pull out some fun batter-versus-pitcher stats, if you’re into that kind of thing. While this doesn’t tell you much on its own, Votto had a 1.000 OPS against Madison Bumgarner, a 1.053 OPS against Cliff Lee and a 1.533 OPS against Gio Gonzalez. There are plenty of counter-examples, however, like his .393 OPS against C.C. Sabathia.

So we’ve established an interesting baseline: Votto is tremendous overall. He’s one of the best hitters in the game, period, and he’s also the only left-handed hitter who is anywhere close to the top of the “Versus Left-Handed Pitching” leaderboard. Votto makes his money by killing both righties and lefties in a way that’s quite unusual. What is it about Votto that makes him lefty-proof? I have a theory, but that’s all it is.

There are basically two reasons hitters have trouble with same-side pitchers. The first is we think it’s hard to make solid contact with a ball traveling away from you. So lefties can neutralize lefties with breaking balls, and righties can do the same to righties — especially utilizing sliders. We often think pitchers with good changeups are less prone to platoon splits because the changeup breaks toward the same-side hitter.

One explanation might be Votto is exceptionally skilled at handling breaking balls, but I can’t find any clear evidence that is the case. Maybe it’s true — as pitch sequencing and location are critical to a thorough analysis and beyond what we can analyze simply — but I think the cause is something else.

The other part of the platoon advantage, we think, is visual. The way batters are set up to face pitchers makes it harder to see the ball from the same-side pitchers. The ball is coming from behind them to some extent and the way vision works, perhaps hitters lose a fraction of a second in reaction time, meaning their brain calculates the expected location of the pitch a bit later than they’d like and it leads to slightly less favorable contact. This is why pitchers with lower arm angles seem to have bigger splits. Jared Cross’ recent work supports both of these platoon explanations.

Like I said, I have a simple theory that explains Votto. Obviously, he’s an amazing hitter, but there are lots of good lefties who can dominate righties without nearly as much success against lefties. Which brings me back to those Joey Votto facts.

Votto is known for his walks. He’s known for his patience. In other words, he’s known for his eye. His ability to discern balls from strikes is legendary. Votto is better than anyone at deciding which pitches are strikes and which aren’t.

It stands to reason that Votto has an exceptionally good view of the baseball, relative to his peers. Maybe that comes from the way he turns his head, the quality of his actual eyeballs, or his brain’s ability to process visual signals from his eyes. It would make sense that a lefty who could hit lefties would either have to be good at hitting sliders or would have some skill that mitigated the visual advantage left-handed pitchers seem to have.

Given that we think of Votto as having a great eye, could it be as simple as Votto merely being able to get a better look at left-handed pitchers than his fellow left-handed hitters? If platoon splits are driven in large part by visual factors, you would expect to see batters with good eyes have less pronounced splits. Obviously, FanGraphs doesn’t have the resources to put hitters through complicated visual tests to verify this claim, but it’s one that is at least intellectually satisfying.

Votto is known for being a great, patient hitter who is allergic to pop ups. Most right-handed bats would kill for Votto’s numbers against lefties. And while his year-to-year platoon split bounces around like we might expect, his overall career arc is pretty clear: he hasn’t been as vulnerable to lefties as most left-handed hitters. There has to be a reason why that’s the case. Variation is one factor, perhaps, but it’s not as if Votto is a little better or has only been better for a short time. This is sustained, substantial advantage.

The best theory I can spin is that something about Votto’s eyes allow him to see the ball from a lefty much better than other left-handed bats. While we can’t necessarily prove it, it makes sense. And it reminds us that having a good eye isn’t only about talking walks. It’s about laying off bad pitches so you can swing at good ones. It’s about squaring up the pitches you do swing at to get the maximum contact quality. Votto is about to finish in the top three in the National League’s most valuable player race in no small part because he dominates lefties in a way none of his peers do. Even though we appreciate so much about Votto, that particular fact hasn’t received the attention it deserves.

We hoped you liked reading Joey Votto Is the Best at Another Thing by Neil Weinberg!

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Neil Weinberg is the Site Educator at FanGraphs and can be found writing enthusiastically about the Detroit Tigers at New English D. Follow and interact with him on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44.

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Billy
Guest
Billy

Time and time again, Joey Votto is underrated by the general public. People think he’s overpaid because he doesn’t mash 40+ homers a year. The man has the best eye at the plate in the game and is arguably the hardest man to get out in all of baseball. The fact he never pops out is insane, add in his amazing eye at the plate, high walk rate and ability to hit to all fields and I can’t pinpoint a more appropriate hitter to have at the plate with the game on the line. Votto sets up to be the guy least likely to fail at getting the run home, or moving the runner up somehow. I sincerely wish Votto was a Blue Jay just so I could see more of him in action, but that will never happen sadly.

Yirmiyahu
Member

Votto facts are almost as fun as Harper facts.

Last 5 years, LH v LH, minimum 200 PA’s:
Votto has a 156 wRC+. The runner-up (Ortiz) has a 128 wRC+.
Votto has a .412 OBP. The runner-up (Mauer) has a .356 OBP.

Hillstead
Guest
Hillstead

Votto’s easily my favorite player (and I’m a fan of an NLC rival), so this isn’t a knock, but I’m actually curious about your statement that you “can’t pinpoint a more appropriate hitter to have at the plate with the game on the line.”

Obviously “the game on the line” could many any number of scenarios, and if nothing else Votto is among the least likely to cause an out. But the general public complaint is that Votto’s likely to take a walk rather than “drive in the run”. That’s not an incorrect perception (if it’s an incorrect way to value a walk in the abstract), as his 1/5 walk rate was best in the league last year. But taking a walk isn’t worth much “with the game on the line”; hamfistedly, the odds of even two Joey Vottos in a row not making an out are .210. So, a player who’s more likely to make a difference-making hit (if less likely to not make an out) may be more useful “with the game on the line” than Votto, who may only allow the game to end another out.

This buys into the notion that Votto is more likely to take a walk than make a difference-making hit, which seems faulty: he was .001 SLG out of the top ten last year. But as a thought exercise, I’m curious if there’s a sweet spot for hitters “with the game on the line.” A high OBP is useful as much for not causing an out as it is for being on base to score a run, which over the course of a game and season is great. But are those advantages which play out over the long run the same as what you’d want “with the game on the line”?

Yirmiyahu
Member

It’s been said many times many ways, but Votto is not exchanging hits for his BB’s. No one (not even Harper or Trout or Cabrera) can produce good contact on pitches outside the zone. Hittable pitches are strikes, which (by definition) don’t result in walks.

Hillstead
Guest
Hillstead

My point regarding “not an incorrect perception” was poorly made; it was merely that people are observing him take many walks, some of which are perhaps at times when they’d rather have a “clutch hit” (but of course would much less rather have the out on a poorly hit ball).

Eric
Guest
Eric

whether the plate appearance outcome is a walk or a strikeout, *most of the time* a PA that ends either way HAS strikes looking, has strikes called where the batter did not get the bat off his shoulder to swing, or BOTH. So a batter winds up losing the higher value proposition of contact. If you aren’t sure, SWING! Because its a common philosophy that, there may be three strikes to this game called baseball, but 1) is for the Umpire, 2) is for the pitcher and 3) the third strike is for YOU, the batter. Swing the bat….the most important piece of real estate on the baseball diamond is HOME PLATE. If you don’t own it and protect it, and you would rather leave it up to the ump to decide your fate, you would be a weak hitter. Besides every REAL hitter knows, if you are any good at offense, you don’t want strikeouts or walks, you want hits, contact outs and errors. Walks are a low positive value outcome, not worth much, and strikeouts are valueless.

Captain Obvious
Guest
Captain Obvious

Jose Bautista and Joey Votto batting back to back would drive pitchers nuts. Imagine the amount of back to back walks these guys would accumulate over the year?