John Lannan Demoted to AA
For two years, John Lannan looked like the luckiest man in baseball. In 2008, he struck out just 5.79 per nine and walked 3.56 per nine, yet still ended the year with a 3.91 ERA. His 4.79 FIP suggested that he might be performing a bit above his head. But then in 2009 he saw his strikeout numbers fall to an unfathomable 3.88. His walks decreased a bit, as did his home runs, but that still added up to a 4.70 FIP. Lannan’s ERA that season: 3.88. This year, however, his fortunes have changed.
It started on Opening Day and didn’t get much better after that. Three starts later Jack, commented on Lannan’s continued futility after a six-inning outing against Colorado in which he allowed four runs on 11 hits, striking out two to one walk. “The ridiculous amount of balls in play that Lannan allows is finally catching up to him, it would appear,” Jack wrote. “It is a long season, and there is time for Lannan to revert to the form that added up to that 3.98 ERA the first few years of his career.” Yet, that just hasn’t happened.
The White Sox pummeled Lannan yesterday, scoring five runs on 11 hits through four innings. Lannan didn’t walk anyone, but he also struck out just one. He did keep the ball on the ground, inducing 12 ground balls to three fly balls and five line drives. And, to his credit, only one of those 11 hits went for extra bases, a double to Alex Rios. That double, unfortunately, came in the four-run fifth, during which Lannan allowed four straight hits without recording an out. That resulted in three runs. The fourth scored after Miguel Bautista allowed two hits of his own before inducing a run-scoring double play.
After the game, Nats manager Jim Riggleman said, “I believe in John.” After hearing the pronouncement, MASN’s Phil Wood summed up Lannan perfectly:
Make no mistake about it: John Lannan doesn’t have overpowering stuff. He’s never been a strikeout pitcher, and in his short career has relied on command in the bottom of the strike zone. Today, as he had in his past couple of starts, he threw strikes, but very hittable ones. It was too easy for the Chicago hitters to center on the ball and get it over the infield.
Lannan apparently hasn’t had that bottom of the zone precision this year. His groundball rate is down for the third straight year, and his line drive rate is up at 21 percent, which is higher than any point in his career. It suggests that he either isn’t hitting his spots like has in the past, or that hitters know where those spots exist and have exploited them. In any case, it has added up to terrible results, a 5.18 FIP and 5.76 ERA through 14 starts and 75 innings.
Today, we got a bit of a surprise. Earlier this afternoon, MASN’s Ben Goessling reported that Lannan had been optioned to AA Harrisburg. Joel Peralta will take his spot. It sounds like the Nats want Lannan to take the necessary time to again find the stuff that made him so successful in 2008 and 2009. That could take some work, especially if hitters have found his sweet spots. It’s been a sharp fall for the two-time Opening Day starter. It’s no sure thing at all that Lannan finds his way back.
Joe also writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues.
After last night, he had to go. I can’t wait until some of their pitchers come back off injury…
Ahh, I left my comment on the facebook post instead of here. Not the first time, damn.
And as we know, AA fielding isn’t likely to help him out any.
And yet another nail in the coffin for the arguments of those who take sabermetrics with a grain of salt.
How’s Nolasco and Harang looking so far?
There will always be cases where guys regress who are getting lucky and don’t have good stuff, but there are also similar cases when guys are touted every year as having great controllable numbers yet they fail as well.
For this to be a ‘nail in the coffin’ Lannan’s peripherals should have been similar to the prior two years so that it can be said that he was lucky and his luck caught up to him.
That is decidedly not the case here. Lannan is just a much worse pitcher now in all aspects: Ks BBs LD rate etc. This is not ‘luck catching up’ this is a pitcher just losing something and becoming worse. No sabermetric victory here to be seen
He is getting horribly poor horizontal movement on the FB this year, way way down from last year. Joe, do you think may contribute to his troubles? It is easy to look at the numbers and analysis from years past and draw the conclusion this article presents, but some insight into what exactly is wrong and how it can be “fixed” (to the extent possible) would be even better.
Also, FYI, he was adjusting his arm angle/release point subconsciously, he said, as compensation for an injury he had earlier in the season (pitch F/X bears this out, although curiously he said he wasn’t bending his elbow as much this season, when the scatter plots indicate his release point was more over the top this year — suggesting, to me at least, he was bending it too much and losing the horizontal movement contributing to weak contact).
http://natsinsider.blogspot.com/2010/06/lannan-has-it-figured-out.html
I’m biased as a Nats fan but I believe he’s a major league pitcher (though not the 4th starter he was before) if his stuff becomes what it once was.
There was some decent analysis on the difference in his sinker this year to prior years by a guy who posts at Federal Baseball consistently at http://natsstats.wordpress.com/2010/06/17/washington-nationals-john-lannans-disappearing-sinker/. Be interested if some of the pro and con people here thoughts are on that article.
And the folks here couldn’t be more thrilled I bet. Vindication! Right? But if his FIP is higher in years past, doesn’t that mean he’s doing worse, not just suffering statistical “correction.” To me, the 4.2 BB/9 vs. 2.9 K/9 is more than a sufficient explanation for his troubles this year. When he walks none or one he generally has a fine game, regardless of how many he’s fanned (although, obviously, there are some exceptions).
Let me say, though, despite that last sentence, even I realize 2.9 K/9 is not going to get anything done in MLB. But I think twice that number is perfectly sufficient for some pitchers.
great 🙂
Now this is a pretty late post. Anyways, Lannan’s going to be called up to pitch on Sunday in Strasburg’s spot since he’s been DLed.