Johnson Leads WAR at Labor Day
As we head down the stretch, the name at the top of the pitcher WAR leaderboard might be surprising, but it shouldn’t be shocking. The title reveals that the leader in pitcher WAR at this point, nearly 85% of the way through the season, is Florida Marlins ace Josh Johnson – not Roy Halladay, nor Ubaldo Jimenez, not Cliff Lee, not Felix Hernandez, and not CC Sabathia. Johnson is establishing himself as possibly the best pitcher in the game, coming off a 5.5 WAR, 209 IP, 3.23 ERA, 3.06 FIP 2009 season and posting even more remarkable numbers in 2010. In 183 innings this season, Johnson has a 2.30 ERA and a 2.44 FIP – good for 6.3 WAR to date.
By no means is the race over. Halladay, Francisco Liriano, Lee, and Hernandez are all within 0.4 WAR of Johnson and could certainly catch him over the course of a few more starts. That said, it certainly doesn’t feel like Josh Johnson’s season has received the play that it deserves, whether it be in this space or across the country. Everybody already knows about Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee’s K/BB numbers are prepared to shatter records. Ubaldo Jimenez’s season began with the ludicrous ERA and the possibility of a 25 win season. Francisco Liriano gets the huge NERD scores for an ERA which remains nearly a run above his FIP due to an inexplicable .344 BABIP. Perhaps it’s because I live in the Midwest and therefore see little of Johnson on TV, but it feels that the attention given to Johnson’s season pales in comparison to those of these pitchers, not to mention guys like Clay Buchholz and CC Sabathia who have sparkly traditional numbers on playoff teams.
There’s no reason whatsoever not to like Josh Johnson’s season. He has a respectable 11-6 record with a 2.30 ERA. He has struck out 186 batters in 183 innings while walking only 48 and allowing only 7 homers. He has kept 46% of balls in play on the ground. His swinging strike rate of 11.8% rivals those of top relief pitchers. He hits the zone more than the average pitcher, and gets the first strike nearly 65% of the time. Basically, Johnson does everything that you can ask out of a pitcher, and for that reason Johnson has been the best pitcher in baseball according to our WAR, and I find it difficult to argue with that conclusion.
Between 2009 and 2010, Josh Johnson has now posted 11.8 wins above replacement. Projecting pitchers can be dangerous, but Johnson has a powerful fastball, fantastic secondary stuff, an ability to strike batters out, and solid control of the strike zone. Only a select few pitchers in the game can challenge the arsenal of picthes and skills that Johnson brings to the mound every single time out. That’s why Josh Johnson leads the league in WAR coming down the stretch of the season, and that’s why Josh Johnson just might be the single best pitcher in baseball.
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I think there is a reasonable reason to believe that Johnson’s strikeout totals are being inflated by his home park. (Would somebody please inform me how to add a link to a comment as I want to link to Jeff Sullivan’s 7/16/10 SBNation article, which itself links to Matthew Carruth’s work at StatCorner.com). Based on those studies the Marlins stadium increase strikeouts by 11% on average. Considering that strikeouts are the third most important component of FIP I would imagine that Johnson may not be the leader right now.
Admittedly, I am not considering any other park factors that would affect the FIPs of these pitchers.
I don’t mean to take away from Johnson’s season though, as it has clearly been one of the best of 2010.
I was shocked to look at not only this years strikeout rate splits for Johnson, but also over his career. almost 2.5 more K/9 at home than on the road for his career. Seems like a huge number.
Why would Marlins Stadium increase strikeouts by that drastic amount?
What is the reasoning behind it?
there are plenty of things that could affect strikeouts… everything from poor backdrop making the ball hard to pick up, to the direction the stadium faces.
I’m sorry, but I think there seems to be a typo. You listed Clay Bucholz as pitching for a “playoff team.” Please fix.
+1
Hahaha…..dannux, relax, spaz.
So I guess I just don’t understand the nuances of how WAR is calculated, but how can Johnson have a higher WAR than Halladay when Johnson has:
– 40 less IPs (~6 starts)
– less total Ks
– more BBs
– Higher XFIP
– Higher WPA/LI
– less wins
I realize he has less losses, and a slightly lower ERA and a considerably lower FIP, but the discrepancy is really confusing to me. It’s just one of many examples where I’m surprised to find that a pitcher with better peripheral stats actually has a lower WAR compared to another pitcher.
Sorry, that should be Johnson has a lower WPA/LI vs. Halladay.
fWAR is based entirely on FIP
Just ignore results Okay? My formula is the best measure of value, any other measure is archaic and useless.
I can’t answer the JJ vs. Halladay WAR question, but I did want to point out that you should be using ‘fewer’ in every instance where you used ‘less’ in your post, BS. Pedantic, I know…
Aaaahhh you beat me to it. *Dejectedly kicks at the dirt around my feet.*
Use ‘fewer’ for things that can be counted (like wins, losses, and K’s) and ‘less’ for things that can’t. As in, “Johnson just seems to have less general awesomeness than Doc.”
Until Fangraphs publishers expect their contributors to follow basic grammar rules, it’s probably a bit much to expect it from Fangraphs readers.
Count me in the crowd that isn’t convinced that WAR coming from FIP is the best approach for doing things. FIP is great for normalizing for luck, but the thing is, the luck happened. Even if on average we might expect x number of runs to score in a given situation, we’d be better off trying to remove the defense’s contribution, and then give credit for the actual number of runs scored, rather than the average, if our goal is to have a “looking-back” stat rather than a looking forward one.
Agreed that there seem to be better options than FIP, tERA is the one I’d suggest.
If you don’t like fWAR then you should just look at rWAR available at B-R. rWAR only looks at RA and then makes slight adjustments for opponents, park, defense, etc. I personally believe it’s a much better indicator of what DID happen while FIP is better used as a tool of what WILL happen or possibly SHOULD have happened.
For reference B-R has Halladay leading Johnson 6.6 WAR to 6.3.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2010-value-pitching.shtml
Wow, some of the differences are tremendous. Since I’m a Phillies fan, I’m just picking their players for the fun of it, but Joe Blanton has a 1.5 WAR on Fangraphs (not counting tonight’s start), but -0.8 on B-R.
Is Fangraph’s WAR based on fWAR?
Fangraphs’ version is based on FIP, while BR’s is based on adjusted RA. Both tell us something worthwhile, but BR’s is more focused on (or has more value for) results, while Fangraphs’ is more focused on (ditto) predicting future results. I’m not sure either does the best job with that target though. I’d really love to see better tweaked versions of pitcher’s WAR that have a clear focus.
@BS:
One of the weird side effects about FIP is that it has a more narrow range. In other words, bad pitchers will be…less bad…according to FanGraph’s WAR. ERA has more extremes than FIP.
fWAR!! What is it good for? Absolutely NOTHIN’!
Good God y’aw.
Honestly, I’m not sure they both really do tell us something worthwhile. I do think by averaging them (fWAR and rWAR) we can get a more complete picture. But, I am not sure seperately that they both tell us something worthwhile.
Does anyone really need WAR to tell them that Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson are really good or are having great years?
Tim Hudson’s rWAR is 5.7, and his fWAR is 3.4. What worthwhile information does either of those numbers reveal to us. One says his season is league average, the other says his season is elite. Reminds me of the David Chapelle stand-up routine where the suspect in a criminal incident is always black, and between 5’4 and 6’9, 150 to 380 pounds. *grin*
I understand that FIP and the like are the best attempts we currently have at isolating a pitcher’s contribution and removing luck and defense. I am not unconvinced that 10 years from now, we won’t look back at such metrics as being misguided (since it ignores some big things that pitchers influence, while allowing some things that opponents affect).
I am confused as to how pitching metrics don’t account for the strength of opposition, since that is one of the biggest factors affecting pitching stats.
I think we too quickly accept a single metric as best or too wantingly ignore possible negatives, just to have something that is better than ERA. We regress all other single season stats, we don’t give pitchers any credit for lowish BABIP or low ERA, but then we readily accept and base an individual’s total value on FIP. Doesn’t make sense to me, like trying to isolate a QB’s performance from their offensive line. [1] who cares? The QB never plays without the OLine, and [2] the are intended to work together.
I like stats, and it’s my nature to always want to know how things work, but at times, I feel as though the stat is not as desriptive as we might think, or that we are intentionally narrow-minded, just to have something other than ERA to talk about.
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Case #2 — Trevor Cahill
fWAR = 1.9
rWAR = 3.6
What does WAR tell us? We can get to where the ranges are so big that neither of them tell us much worthwhile.
Honestly, I think at this point having different WARs based on different things is more confusing and muddling than it is revealing and worthwhile. I do think averaging them brings us closer in terms of probable accuracy, but I’m not all that excited about isolating pitching metrics in the first place. I think it’s silly to credit pitchers for certain things, but not others, yet ignore opponent strength. Ah, I’m being repetitive.
That is really interesting about the home/away strikeout disparity, something I was unaware of for whatever they are calling Joe Robbie stadium these days. Part of it is definitely the amount of foul territory involved, while the hitting background must not be very optimal for making contact.
Josh Johnson is easily the most underrated pitcher in baseball
Looks like JJ might get shut down 🙁
Yeah, strong possiblity that JJ is done for the season.
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/fish_bytes/2010/09/josh-johnson-flying-home-to-have-back-and-shoulder-checked-by-doctors.html