Jose De Leon Looked Exactly as Advertised
Jose De Leon made his debut over the weekend and he allowed four runs in six innings to a mediocre Padres lineup. Though he came away with the win, it would be easy to scan the box score and conclude that he probably didn’t deserve it. Just another amped-up rookie going through some major-league jitters. It’s not an uncommon course of events. The first time for everyone ought to be a freebie.
The Dodgers, though, would tell you that De Leon pitched better than that. And even the box score itself would tell you that De Leon pitched better than that. Along with the four runs, De Leon whiffed nine without issuing a walk. Of course, yeah, it was just the Padres. And you don’t ever want to allow four runs. No one’s quite sure when De Leon is going to start again. But the reality of his debut is that he looked exactly as advertised. There are reasons why De Leon has never been traded.
I want to show you a plot and a table. They kind of say the same thing, but then, I’ve always been told that if you want people to remember something, repeat it. As for why De Leon has been advertised so highly in the first place — with each season, he’s gotten better. And in this plot, you’ll see Triple-A pitcher statistics. I’ve included contact rate, and the rate of pitches thrown while ahead in the count. De Leon is highlighted in blue.
There, De Leon occupies the proper quadrant. That shows that he’s been both hard to hit, and frequently in control. A pitcher who gets ahead and misses bats is likely to be a good one, and now, to basically repeat myself, here are Triple-A pitcher strikeout-minus-walk rates, given a minimum of 10 starts:
| Pitcher | K-BB% |
| Jose De Leon | 26.6% |
| Jameson Taillon | 23.3% |
| Blake Snell | 23.0% |
| Phil Klein | 22.7% |
| Chad Green | 21.6% |
| Joe Musgrove | 21.1% |
| Jharel Cotton | 21.1% |
| Alex Reyes | 21.0% |
| Jose Berrios | 20.6% |
| Adalberto Mejia | 19.3% |
Right. This is why Dodgers fans were waiting for De Leon impatiently. A year ago, he succeeded in Double-A, and this year, in Triple-A, he caught fire. You’ll notice he’s the leader in that table. It’s a table with some awfully intriguing names in it. And over De Leon’s last five Triple-A starts, he recorded two walks and 45 strikeouts. It seems like he conquered the level. That made him fit for a big-league promotion.
And now we can say that, over De Leon’s last six starts, he’s recorded two walks and 54 strikeouts. One of those starts came in Dodger Stadium. Let’s quickly review the ways in which De Leon looked like he should’ve been expected to look.
So many strikes
De Leon was one of the league-leading control artists in Triple-A. You probably gathered that from the information above. He threw almost 69% of his pitches for strikes, and he threw 41% of his pitches while ahead in the count. Against the Padres, De Leon threw more than 67% of his pitches for strikes, and he threw 43% of his pitches while ahead in the count. Maybe you don’t have a good idea of the league averages! Those would be 64% and 36%, respectively. With these numbers, individual percentage points can mean a lot. One percentage point refers to one pitch a game, basically. De Leon frequently found himself ahead. The Padres weren’t able to scare him wild.
Deceptively live fastball
De Leon doesn’t really work with plus velocity. He throws his fastball in the low 90s, sometimes dipping as low as 89, and sometimes reaching as high as 95 or 96. So he’s not a fireballer, and he doesn’t have the benefit of tremendous extension. Yet if the fastball were mediocre, the numbers would be mediocre. There’s something about the pitch that seems to give hitters fits, and the Padres swung through De Leon’s fastball 11 times. Here’s one:
It helps that De Leon’s fastball looks so much like his
Excellent changeup
De Leon’s best weapon is his changeup, which is relatively uncommon for an upper-tier pitching prospect. The Padres swung through six changeups, and De Leon was willing to throw the pitch in any count in any situation, as far as I could tell. A pleasing whiff:
There’s a large difference in velocity between De Leon’s fastball and changeup, and there’s also a large difference in vertical movement. However, there’s a rather small difference in horizontal movement, which, anecdotally, seems to be best. That way, the fastball can disguise the changeup, and the changeup can disguise the fastball. The arm actions are implied to be similar, and the same goes for the spin. De Leon isn’t a two-pitch pitcher, but the two pitches do work very well together. That should help him to avoid any horrible platoon split.
Occasional breaking ball
De Leon didn’t throw many breakers against San Diego. In part this could be because he barely faced any righties. But, also, the breaking ball is his worst pitch. Which isn’t to say it’s bad.
It’s just not up there with the other stuff. Various scouting reports claim the breaking ball is in the vicinity of average. If there’s one area where De Leon could really stand to improve, it’s here. Without a great breaking ball, he’s a quality prospect. With a great breaking ball, he’d be a nightmare.
Batted balls in the air
Throughout the minors, De Leon has been a fly-ball pitcher. I don’t see any reason to believe that’s going to change in the majors, and against the Padres, De Leon yielded a high average launch angle. The downside is that some fly balls can be hurtful. The upside is that others can be basically the same thing as strikeouts.
De Leon generated a high pop-up rate in the PCL, and he carried that over into his debut. He gets hitters to swing under the baseball, giving him both whiffs and virtual whiffs. Looking only at strikeouts, De Leon has been fantastic. Fold in the other kind of automatic out and he appears even better.
A dinger
If there’s a vulnerability, it’s this:
Consider it a consequence of having two and a half pitches. Consider it, also, a consequence of being a fly-ball pitcher in the first place. The advantage of getting groundballs is that grounders aren’t homers. The disadvantage is that grounders lead to hits and errors. The advantage of getting fly balls is that flies are often easy outs. The disadvantage is that some flies are dingers. De Leon hasn’t had a horrible homer problem, but they will happen. He throws strikes and he doesn’t have an advanced breaking ball to offer a consistent third look. The Padres got their homer. At least, for De Leon, because he throws so many strikes, most of the homers should be solo shots.
In another organization, Jose De Leon would be a rotation regular. With the Dodgers, even though they’ve had to deal with an impossible number of injuries, the rotation picture is still oddly crowded, so it’s unclear when De Leon will get another go. This much is certain: Future opportunities are coming. The Dodgers like what they have, and, they ought to. They know that De Leon is ready to be a big-league starter. And now, so do you, for many of the reasons De Leon showed in his first six innings. He’s not perfect, and he’s not as good as he could be, but prospects don’t get much more advanced.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
I so want that graph to be interactive, I badly want to know who the dot just to the right of JDL is, and the guy way down at the bottom (I want to guess that one is Glasnow? But was he pitching ahead that often?).
He struck out the side in his final inning and, if I remember correctly, struck out his final batter on three straight swinging strikes on breaking balls.
This is just a random preference of mine, but I like adding in 2-2 when using the ahead of the count filter. 2-2 is as advantageous for the pitcher as 1-2 and 0-2 so I think it’s worth including.
Re: the 0-2 vs. 2-2 – know where to look this up? I respectfully disagree, and I’ll explain why.
I’ve read that batter production is greatly improved while pitcher production is greatly impaired at 0-2. But, I also played ball for 19 years, caught for 16 years, with 7 of them being in semi-pro ball in the Frontier League. Full recognition that the Frontier League is not the majors, and that the difference is cast. Still. You play with a handful of former and future MLB guys, and loads of MiLB guys. You’d hope to pick up a thing or two. And you do – those guys are on a different level and see the. Game in a way that will blow your mind. Anecdotally, a good pitcher got more impossible with each strike ahead. But, again, anecdotally, a poor pitcher didn’t matter so much – a good batter isn’t going to expand against a scrub, even if they’re down 1-2 – so we weren’t going to get him to chase. But down 0-2, everyone expanded. Everyone chases. Curveball in the dirt, slider a foot outside, fastball a foot high, change up at the ankles – joke pitches, but I can’t count how many strikeouts I’ve seen with them that I know would’ve been taken in a 2-2 count.. I only comment on this because I always remarked how even I did this – more-or-less a lifetime catcher who’s main offensive contribution was strong strike zone judgement (from catching) and the ability to get on base (by not using my bat). But down 0-2 – even if you expect a ball, even if you have seen a pattern of pitch usage, even if think your best bet is not swinging – man, I don’t know, there is just something inside you that says you’re supposed to protect – something that remembers the fastball you took that you shouldn’t have, the games (yes , plural – you’re at-bat with the game on the line more than you’d think) in your hands that we lost, and remembers the coaches and the teammates, the studs and the shitheads, that all chastised you to protect with 2 strikes. Especially 0-2 – you just swing, man. You expand. You chase. You swing! You’re not the same hitter. No one is. No one. But, a 2-2 count is normal. And against a scrub, I FEEL (just a feeling) like HE is at a disadvantage, not me. I got him. 2-2, he’s weak, look meatball, hit double. Rinse, repeat. But down 0-2. Shit. I hate to admit it. But sometimes I was already thinking about hitting a belt-high fastball, or conceding to my next at-bat, and how I was going to (hopefully) knock a double. But I would basically sit mistake (helped me cut down on chasing) and would virtually never get one, so we know how that ended. If I didn’t sit mistake, my mind raced about which of his 3 shitty secondary offerings he would throw, and if it would be low, outside, high or if he was foolish enough to throw it in. I would make it into a 1-in -3 guessing game on pitches , and a 1-in-4 guessing game on location, and I would lose. Against a GOOD pitcher, shit – down 0-2, the at-bat was over. I was definitely be thinking of how I would get my revenge next AB. But 2-2, I had a chance. A good chance. Against a good pitcher. I liked it better than 1-1, for instance. No one wants to run the count full. Good fastball count. Great fastball count if you’re the catcher batting 7 or 8. And if not a fastball, the curves and sliders seem to be more over the plate 2-2 than they would’ve been 0-2. I know as a catcher, I’m calling that in the dirt or at the ankles 0-2. But 2-2, I would call that at the knees. As a batter trying to do something, that’s a big difference.
I dunno, I am referencing personal experience with a blind faith that the numbers will support my theory. They just have to though. They must. Also. I went to a baby shower tonight. I had to drink to stay sane. I drank a lot. So there’s that.
Only anecdotal numbers to support your theory as i don’t know how to pull the info en masse, but trout ichiro and Votto have Wrc+ scores of 97 50 and 46 through 0-2 as opposed to 126 78 and 107. So all 3 guys are worse than normal at 2-2 but the affect is nowhere near as marked as 0-2.
I’m glad you drank at that baby shower, because that was an entertaining discourse.
I don’t think anybody would argue that 2-2 is equal to 0-2, but I think the numbers support that 2-2 is closer to a pitcher being ahead than neutral. Here’s major league average results this year by count:
Baseball Reference
Hahaha, this was excellent. Last paragraph had me thinking that you’re just like my friends and me.
Thanks for the reply, I love hearing perspectives of people who have baseball experience.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2016#count
This data shows while OPS is very bad for hitters at 0-2, 2-2 is comparably bad. Obviously 0-2 is better but 2-2 still appears to be very valuable.
Likewise, thank you for the reply and the link. That is amazing. a .382 OPS at 0-2 and a .463 OPS at 2-2 is WAY closer than I would think. I have a hard time understanding it, but the numbers don’t lie! I don’t get what a .597 OPS after 2-2 means. Does that only account for fouls (meaning the count stays 2-2), or does it roll in the 3-2 count if there is one? That .597 OPS is getting closer to what I would have thought (though I still though it was more extreme than even that). Either way, very interesting discussion!
I think after 2-2 is including all at bat outcomes after 2-2 count is reached? While just on 2-2 means only outcomes that happen on the pitch that happens on that count.