Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, and a Nice Problem to Have
It seems like top up-the-middle prospects like Francisco Lindor don’t come around very often. It seems like you can’t get enough shortstop prospects, especially if you run the Cubs. It seems like a building team like the Indians shouldn’t trade their top prospect. It seems like a team like that should hold on to their prospects like they were precious baubles to be hoarded in dark places.
Maybe all of that is wrong. Maybe the Indians should trade Francisco Lindor.
First up, are shortstop prospects in the top 100 any rarer than other positions? No. Actually, once you remove pitchers and outfielders, there have been more shortstops in Baseball America’s top 100 than any other position since 2000. 130 of them. The multiple eligibilities of many prospects does confound things, but you’d have to count every “slash-third-baseman” as an actual third baseman in order to find an equal among the positions. And there were only 297 outfield-only prospects, so it seems legitimate: we love shortstop prospects.
Should we? By bust rate, only second base produces worst outcomes than shortstop. As recently as 2011, 69.3% of top 100 shortstop prospects had bust, a full ten percent worse than the number of top third baseman that failed to become more than one-win major leaguers. Perhaps it’s because we dream so heavy on their shoulders, and put so many shortstops on our lists, but it really looks like it’s the iffiest position on the diamond when it comes to prospects.
The reason this is even a question is Jose Ramirez. Ramirez has played regularly since the Indians sent Asdrubal Cabrera to the Nationals, and has opened some eyes. Sure, his .256/.298/.339 slash line and resulting weighted offense (82 wRC+) doesn’t look great at first glance, but there are reasons to find him intriguing nonetheless.
For one, once placed in the context of his peers at his position, Ramirez isn’t as offensively anemic as it may first appear. Shortstops this year have only collectively managed a .250/.306/.362 line (86 wRC+). Suddenly, his bat is passable.
His glove is getting rave reviews. The small-sample defensive numbers have him as a plus-20 shortstop in just under 350 innings, elite numbers despite the short sample. Manager Terry Francona has praised his active defense, and even when admitting that he perhaps doesn’t have the best arm, the manager has been near effusive with his regular comments on the player.
“I don’t think we were surprised,” Indians manager Terry Francona said of Ramirez’s play. “I just think that when people in our industry look at somebody and don’t see maybe a big arm, they immediately go, ‘Second base.’ Well, his range is tremendous and he moves his feet really well and he’s got a good clock.
That’s all eye-test and small samples. Francisco Lindor’s defense has no qualifiers, not according to the scouting reports. Our JD Sussman called him “one of the Minor Leagues’ best defenders” last year. That part isn’t in question.
The bat on Lindor, though? Take a look at the current projections from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPs system for the two players in question.
| BA | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez | 0.265 | 0.306 | 0.345 | 86 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.244 | 0.297 | 0.351 | 84 |
Huh. Jose Ramirez might have a better bat than the top prospect coming up behind him. He has the love of his manager already. The defensive stats love him so far, and a query for ‘Jose Ramirez defense’ on MLB.com’s video search tool provides a nice return, even ones with good range:
Of course there are reasons to keep the top prospect. Szymborski’s peak projection for Lindor (.256/.316/.401 with a 103 wRC+) might be better than Ramirez can put up. We have to assume Lindor’s defense is superior to what Ramirez would put up at short, even if Lindor’s defense is a complete unknown at the big league level and Ramirez’s only slightly less so. You could move Ramirez to second and push Jason Kipnis (a -6 defensive second baseman) to the outfield, and you’d keep everyone under team control. These are all good reasons, and they make it likely that Lindor will remain an Indian next year.
But if the Indians are looking to get more offense at a different position, or perhaps a starter with the upside to push the rest of the rotation down a spot, they may want to think about trading Francisco Lindor. His bust rate is still high, they may have a replacement on hand, and there’s nothing that gets us (and other teams) as hot as a top-100 shortstop prospect.
That much we know, paradoxically, from the sheer number of shortstops we designate with that label.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Small sample size caveat, but Ramirez’ hitting stats look even better in the context of his season: in May, he hit a putrid 2-for-25 and was demoted; his slash line since being recalled after the All-Star break is .285/.333/.377 in 151 AB, and he’s not been caught in 8 steal attempts. Not world beating stuff, sure, but is sustainable that’s a pretty valuable player.
WTF, Sarris. You jackass. That study is over 10 years old:
“For the population of top prospects, I used Baseball America’s top 100 prospect lists from 1990 to 2003…. ”
Hmm. Why don’t you take a gander at how the top SS prospects have fared from 2004-present? Because it doesn’t support your thesis..
I won’t call you a name, but the study is not ten years old. Just look at the publication date. it’s oldish, but nobody has done a followup. You couldn’t add 2010 people because you can’t call them busts yet.
So that was published three years ago, let’s add in the top 100 shortstops that were on the lists from 2004-06: Hanley Ramirez, B.J. Upton, Jose Lopez, Khalil Greene, Kaz Matrsui, JJ Hardy, Bobby Crosby, Sergio Santos, Aaron Hill, Joel Guzman, Chris Nelson, Erick Aybar, Joaquin Arias, Brandon Wood, Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Troy Tulowitzki, Elvis Andrus, Marcus Sanders, Cliff Pennington, Ronny Cedeno. I count 23 players and 12 busts. 52.2%.
That might move the overall sample a bit, but not a ton.
What are you getting for these links? like $.50/1000 clicks? It doesn’t seem worth it.
At least I now know that Annette Funicello died.
Who?
It is clear the Tribe has two quality prospects with one position currently vacant, but I would have a very hard time choosng Ramirez as the keeper and tradng Lindor. Lindor and Ramirez seem to have similar “hit tools” but Lindor seems to have a great deal more plate discipline and arm strength. Nobody knows how they will turn out, but from this POV I would find it very difficult (as a team, like Cleveland, without a shortstop) to trade an outstanding defensive shortstop with great plate discipline who runs fast and can hit reasonably well while earning league minimum with (potentially) 7 seasons of team control.
Whom could they hope to acquire on whom they could count to provide equivalent value?
It all comes down to that last question you posed. If they can get a top 15 prospect starting pitcher in return, I’d say go for it, since they seem to have a surplus of MI prospects. I generally agree with your skepticism though – I wouldn’t be rushing out to trade Lindor with the hopes that Ramirez is the long term answer at SS – he seems more like a util guy to me.
The Indians don’t have a need for a starting pitching prospect, and you certainly wouldn’t trade a top position player prospect for a pitching prospect. If they would trade Lindor, it would be for a major leaguer, they need an outfielder.
Mets love Syndergaard, but Lindor would be tempting.
This would not be tempting at all for Cleveland. A major league ready pitching prospect is really the last thing they need. Who is going to look better than Carrasco, Bauer, Salazar? If they want to add pitching, they would add a veteran type, since they already have the young guys with upside. They don’t really need to add pitching though, other than improving their depth. A young non-Giancarlo Marlins outfielder would make more sense for Cleveland.
WIth Josh Bell on the horizon, maybe the Bucs would flip Marte for Lindor.
Bell is likely ticketed for first base, and Marte is probably too valuable to give up for almost any one prospect; he’s under control for seven more years (two options) and is already a fourish-win player. Also the Bucs may be willing to keep going with Jordy Mercer at shortstop, since he’s recovered from his early slump to have an average year (more than that, if you believe his DRS rather than his UZR, and way more than that if you believe his +21 total zone).
There’s no reason to believe someone’s total zone over their UZR or DRS. It’s just qualitatively worse.
All things equal, I’d take Lindor too, probably, though I’m not as excited about him as many. But I think Lindor returns much more as a top-15 prospect. In terms of teams that need shortstops, I think the Marlins and Mets could match up, as well as possibly the Reds and Phillies. The Yankees even?
I would trade any three prospects in the Yankees system for Lindor, without hesitation.
He’s a lot better than Ramirez. I think he’ll hit .280/.350/.400 in the major for 10 years, with +10-15 defense.
Lindor is going to be really, really good, even if he hasn’t been awesome in Columbus as a 20 year old.
Kind of reminds me of when the Yankees had Soriano and D’Angelo Jimenez coming up at about the same time, when Soriano was the better-regarded SS prospect. Both had similar numbers in the high minors, but Soriano was viewed as the high-ceiling guy (which turned out right, though not for having a Lindor-like glove.)
No YOUR bust rate is still high!
All this talk about busts makes me go to youporn
I’m so glad I’m not alive for this.
Youporn is both a depressing and irresistable part of life in 2014 America.
It’s a fun idea to mull over, but in the end you’re making a pretty substantial bet on what has been a surprising result for Ramirez.
I suspect your option of push Kipnis to the OF and have two excellent defensive middle IFers is going to end up being the answer.
Yeah. For reference, when Ramirez was Lindor’s age, he put up the same line in AA that Lindor has put up in AAA this year (with a little less power).
Lindor is far and away the better offensive prospect, to go with his better defense.
Is that bust rate for shortstops who stay on the position, or all prospects who come up as shortstops? It seems like the bust rate for shortstops who stay on the position would be lower, intuitively.
Should the Diamondbacks have traded Chris Owings after Didi Gregorius put up a .289/.353/.428 line in his first 52 games of 2013?
well, not sure your point, but holding onto him hasn’t exactly done great things for the DBack cause…
The point is that 50 hot games doesn’t all of a sudden make him your SS of the future. He was a much worse bet than Lindor going into this season, and he’s a much worse bet going forward than Lindor now.
Lindor isn’t a “Top 100 SS prospect.” He’s a borderline top five prospect in the game. You don’t trade that away because a guy has been an average hitter for an SS for 50 games, regardless of what a projection system that thinks he’s maxed out his power at the age of 20 says.
If he hadn’t lost rookie eligibility Ramirez might have cracked an offseason top 75 this winter. He’s really just not on the same level, in any way.
but no one is saying to release Lindor. point is that if they could exchange him for a young OFer, maybe a Nimmo, that might be better than holding all of their MIers or dealing Ramirez who probably has less value.
Nimmo+Syndergaard might get Lindor. Nimmo alone wouldn’t get them in the door. If the Cards didn’t have Peralta, an OT trade would make sense for both sides.
A Lindor level guy and a C+ prospect is worth a year and a half of Samardzija and half a year of Hammel, remember.
welp, then the Mets would have no interest. remember the analysis above strongly suggests that Lindor will be a glove-first SS.
Mets probably wouldn’t do NImmo straight up.
There is no “analysis” above. A solely statistical projection based on a 20 year old’s numbers in AAA does not qualify as analysis. Neither does using Top 100 prospect bust rates for a guy who’s about to make his third Top 10 this winter. A Top 10 prospect is completely different from a Top 25 prospect, much less a Top 100 guy. Using the “Top 100” bust rate tells you nothing.
Also, if Lindor’s a “glove-first SS,” what does that make Nimmo, who is a year older than Lindor, and has worse offensive numbers in AA this year as a fringe-y CF, while Lindor is an elite defensive SS.
If people say Lindor is a glove-first SS, it’s because his defense is so damn good. He’s expected to be an average or better hitter at the next level, to go with that elite defense. Think somewhere between 2013 and 2014 Jose Reyes offensively, with JJ Hardy defense.
They aren’t comparable prospects. Nimmo would be a supplemental piece in a deal to get Lindor.
If the Mets wouldn’t do Nimmo for Lindor straight up (unless it’s because they’d feel uncomfortable about ripping off another front office like that), every single person who currently works for them should be fired.
Hmmm, who would you recommend replaces me?
Not sure how you feel about this…
in all seriousness, the Mets would be giving up offense in that swap so I really don’t see them jumping on that. OF corner bats are more scarce at the moment than shortstops.
Corner bats are rarer than shortstops who are a year younger and had better stats at AA than those corner bats?
I thought he was better than Lindor when I saw him at Lake County in 2012. He posted a very high BA, and seemed to have no problem getting on base. Lindor’s ceiling is probably not that high, so trading for an effective starter might be a good use of resources.
Lindor’s ceiling is absurdly high. 115-120 wRC+ with 30 steals and elite defense high. He’s an elite prospect, not some run of the mill Top 100 shortstop who put up big numbers in Low-A
Single seasons with 10+ runs on defense, 10%+ above average on offense, and 20+ steals, from bbref:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/season_finder.cgi?type=b#gotresults&as=result_batter&offset=0&sum=0&min_year_season=1901&max_year_season=2014&min_season=1&max_season=-1&min_age=0&max_age=99&is_rookie=&lg_ID=lgAny&lgAL_team=tmAny&lgNL_team=tmAny&lgFL_team=tmAny&lgAA_team=tmAny&lgPL_team=tmAny&lgUA_team=tmAny&lgNA_team=tmAny&isActive=either&isHOF=either&isAllstar=either&bats=any&throws=any&exactness=anymarked&pos_6=1&games_min_max=min&games_prop=50&games_tot=&qualifiersSeason=nomin&minpasValS=502&mingamesValS=100&qualifiersCareer=nomin&minpasValC=3000&mingamesValC=1000&number_matched=1&orderby=year_id&order_by_asc=1&c1criteria=runs_fielding&c1gtlt=gt&c1val=10&c2criteria=SB&c2gtlt=gt&c2val=20&c3criteria=onbase_plus_slugging_plus&c3gtlt=gt&c3val=110&c4gtlt=eq&c4val=0&c5gtlt=eq&c5val=1.0&location=pob&locationMatch=is&pob=&pod=&pcanada=&pusa=&ajax=1&submitter=1&z=1
Less common than I would have thought
Yeah, the kid’s got a nutty ceiling. He almost certainly won’t reach that ceiling, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he put up something like Alan Trammell’s .285/.352/.415 career line for 10 years.
Or Derek Jeter with a .030 lower BABIP.
I love Lindor as a hitter, and do think he has a pretty good chance of being everything he’s hyped up to be as a big league shortstop. Eno’s point still stands that Ramirez may already be a league average SS, despite not having anywhere near the same ceiling. Ramirez’ offense is passable, and seems likely to continue at that level with some room to grow. Lindor’s value may never be higher than it is right now, so if you could conceivably turn him into 2+ average or better big leaguers, why wouldn’t that be sound strategy for the Indians? They’re a relatively small-market team, and don’t have the resources to pay for league average players at every position.
This is similar to the Red Sox’ position last year with both Iglesias and Bogaerts ready for the big leagues. Ramirez is likely a better hitter/worse fielder than Iglesias, and Lindor may be a better overall prospect than Bogaerts, but could anyone fault the Sox if they traded Bogaerts last year for an MLB-ready starter and another prospect or two? They chose the other route, in part because they would have an easier time filling other holes and banking on Bogaerts reaching his ceiling.
See, I would have faulted the Red Sox for trading Bogaerts, and I think they made the correct move by trading Iglesias for a smaller return.
The Indians have Santana, Chisenhall, Brantley, Gomes and Kipnis locked in for the foreseeable future, unless Chisenhall turns back into a pumpkin. So their open slots are CF, SS and RF, or CF, SS and 2B, depending on how you feel about Kipnis. They also have a very good young pitching staff.
Considering how bad Chisenhall is at playing third base, and how bad Kipnis is at playing second, they need a strong defensive SS with a strong arm. That’s Lindor, to a T.
There just aren’t any available CFs that fit the Indians needs better than Lindor’s 40% outcome would.
Why? I agree that Bogaerts is, was and will be much better than Iglesias, but was he an invaluable asset that no offer would be able to pry him away?
I don’t believe that there was anyone available for whom I would have traded Bogaerts last offseason.
I wouldn’t trade a guy like that unless it was part of a package for a position player of the Stanton/Cutch/Longo class, or a true ace.
I wouldn’t trade him for a James Shields, or even a Justin Upton (and I love Justin Upton, more than I should), and no one of even that level was available this past offseason. The best players who changed hands this winter were Ian Kinsler, Dexter Fowler and Doug Fister.
None of those guys are worth a Xander Bogaerts, and no one who looks to be available this offseason (except perhaps for Giancarlo Stanton), is worth a Francisco Lindor.
The tribe is in a better position than most years when they drafted positions like 1B, corner OF, small pitchers that throw in the low 80s and DH. Since they got that newer dude that oversees the draft process, they have been going for the SS, CF, power closer and SP that has more than one pitch.
The thinking is it’s a lot easier to put a better overall athlete somewhere in the OF, 1B or DH than it is to put a dude that can’t move one step to either side type DH/1B/Corner OF anywhere near middle inf., CF or any where else for that matter. As the author suggests, this is a better place and a nice problem to have.
To me, the real question is whether CLE– which seems to regard itself as a contender for the coming window– places a higher value on Lindor than the broader market. And right now, Lindor’s progression through the minors reminds me a bit of Derek Jeter’s.
As I recall, the young DJ was also projected as an average to slightly better hitter with ++ defense and ++ makeup. At least, there’s similarity in terms of buzz. Could that net the Indians an everyday player with good pop who mashes LHPs? If so they’ll have to listen hard.
For what it’s worth, I do think Ramirez can be a valuable starter on a playoff team. He may hit 8th or 9th, but the defense and speed are solid and he seems to have good baseball instincts. As for Kipnis, I’ve never been a fan. Seems like a good team guy and all, but I don’t think he’ll hit well enough to play LF or RF on a contender… Kinda thought his value last year was wayyyy inflated; in fact, he’s one of the reasons I’ve been questioning the usefulness of WAR to begin with.
I think the Jeter comparison fails because of Jeter’s absurd (.344/.410/.463 across three levels, including a .349/.439/.492 line at AAA) age 20 season, but it worked last year and I wouldn’t be surprised by a similar line to Jeter’s age-21 AAA season (.317/.394/.422) when he returns to that level next year.
The kid is an elite prospect. You don’t trade a two-way SS because you might have a three win guy at short, provided he’s actually a +22 fielder and it’s not UZR noise.
I’m not claiming that Nimmo is a better prospecy than lindor because that would be foolish.
However i would like to rain on your parade a little bit. Lindor is a worse prospect than Xander Bogarts was at this time last year, and a worse prospect than Jurrickson Profar was 2 years ago. Niether of them have come close to expectations, and both had similar defensive ability. This is in reply to your above commet about top 100 guys and top 5 guys. I’m not saying any of those 3 SS’s are busts. But i’m not saying any of them aren’t.
Brando Nimmo has some big platoon splits. And in AA he has faced about 20% more LHP than avg (say avg= Lucas Duda) and his #’s against RHP’s in AA are very similar to his A+ #’s.
Again, not saying the Idias would do it or the Mets woud’t do it, just briging you back to reality a little bit.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Sorry, I had to stop reading after you said that Xander Bogaerts had similar defensive ability to Francisco Lindor.
sorry to burst anyone’s bubble here but the Mets love Nimmo and corner OF prospects are currently in shorter supply than good SS prospects. the Mets aren’t about to swap NImmo for just about anyone despite this just being a theoretical exercise. It really doesn’t matter that he isn’t going to stay in CF but that’s bc the Mets have the best defensive CFer in baseball right now. They will absolutely fine with Nimmo in a corner. Truthfully, an OF with Brantley, Frazier and Nimmo sounds really good if you’re the Tribe going forward…
Or they could just keep the guy who’s a full year younger, an elite defensive SS and was more productive offensively at AA over an older guy who doesn’t profile in CF long-term and was less productive offensively in AA.
Let’s put it this way:
You have a guy who put up a .303/.380/.407 line between A+ and AA, with a 10.6 BB% and a 9.9 K%, good for a 123 wRC+, while playing elite defense at shortstop, all as a 19 year old.
Then you have a guy who put up a .281/.393/.425 line between A+ and AA, with a 14.8 BB% and a 19.7 K%, good for a 135 wRC+, while playing fringe-y defense in center field, all as a 21 year old.
Nimmo had a hell of a year.
He might crack the top 50 of some offseason lists.
He will not get the Mets in the door if they want Lindor.
there’s a difference of 7.5 months between Lindor and Nimmo. I certainly wouldn’t want to be the guy who lays money that Lindor will be the better bat as a MLer.
Is there value to playing a premium defensive position? sure, and especially playing it really well. But some evaluators are saying that he could stay in CF. Fringy is certainly an exaggeration there. Regardless, his bat is really just beginning to develop. He could easily be a consensus top 25 prospect next year.
Saying Nimmo doesn’t “get in the door” or other silly trite phrases shows a lack of perspective and some over the top homerism.
Those numbers were from when Lindor was 19.5 months younger than Nimmo.
Also, saying that “some evaluators are saying he could stay in CF” is literally the definition of fringe-y. His defense is on the fringe of being good enough to stay in CF.
No one is going to trade a Top 5 prospect right now for a guy who could be a top 25 prospect going into 2016 if he maintains the progress he displayed in 2014.
Saying that Nimmo won’t get the Mets in the door isn’t “homerism” (especially considering that I’m not an Indians fan). It’s “having perspective on the relative value of the players being discussed.”
Lindor is not only a much, much better fielder relative to his position than Nimmo; he also projects to be a better hitter relative to the average SS than Nimmo is to the average OF.
Only a Mets diehard (or maybe a normal Mets fan who has never heard of Francisco Lindor), would even suggest the value of the two players to be comparable. Nimmo is a good, borderline Top 50 prospect. Lindor is a no-doubt Top 10 prospect in the game, with a solid argument to be Top 5.
I’m not insulting Nimmo by saying he wouldn’t be close to enough to get Lindor, any more than I’d be insulting Joc Pederson (who is a sight better than Nimmo) by saying he wouldn’t be close to enough to get Correa, or DJ Peterson by saying he wouldn’t get Mookie Betts.
To: Cool Lester Smooth- Acc. to MLB.com, Bogarts has 60 range and 60 arm. Lindor has 60 arm 70 range.
Yes, they are similar.
No. No, they are not. Lindor is the best defensive shortstop in the minors, and projects to be an elite defender at the next level.
Bogaerts is a guy who should be able to play an acceptable short for the next five years or so, considering his elite bat, but will probably have to move to third as he gets into his late-20s. That’s an improvement, too, a lot of people thought he’d already be a 3B when he was younger.
I love how i bring data of the players and you just say what you want to.
Great system!
And I love how you’re clearly totally unfamiliar with each player, but think that presenting an individual scouting report from a single site is “bringing data of the players”!
Even funnier is the fact that the “data” you brought is incorrect, as MLB.com actually gave Bogaerts a 55 fielding grade to Lindor’s 70 in their Top 10 SS prospects list: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/66482416/xander-bogaerts-heads-list-of-mlbcoms-top-10-shortstop-prospects
Lindor’s defense is actually more than a full standard deviation from the mean better than Bogaerts’, even from a source that likes Bogaerts’ defense more than most (even SoxProspects.com has Bogaerts’ Field-tool as solid-average, which Kiley would be “50+” in Kiley’s notation).
There is a massive difference between a 55 fielder and a 70 fielder. To use UZR, a 55 fielder saves about 3 runs over the average player at his position per year. A 70 fielder saves about 10 runs.
So, no. No, Xander Bogaerts and Francisco Lindor are not similar defensively.
Again to Cool Lester Smooth: i still read 60 http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/
But it is besides the point. The point is that top prospects at SS better than Lindor bust frequently also. Even if he is only a 55 defender, his offense was expected to be WAY better than Lindor. Much more than the 7 run ifferance in defense.
…that’s from 2013, and it gave Bogaerts a present 40 grade with a projected future grade of 60, while giving Lindor a present 60/future 80. That’s two standard deviations from the mean. It’s saying that Bogaerts is a -5 fielder who could become a +5 fielder, and that Lindor is a +5 fielder who could become a +15 fielder.
You really need to stop digging this hole you’re in, because it’s becoming more and more clear that not only do you not know what you’re talking about, you lack the proper background knowledge to understand the meaning of what you’re reading.
Further, using a 21 year old who’s put up 1.0 WAR in 150 games as an example of a bust is yet another display of ignorance. That’s damn impressive. Prospects don’t spring fully formed from the head of Zeus. He’s putting up the same offensive numbers that Trammell, George Brett, Robin Yount, Roberto Clemente, Jose Reyes, Paul Molitor and Carl Yastrzemski did at that age, while dealing with two position changes in a single season.