KATOH Projects: Baltimore Orioles Prospects
Recently here, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Baltimore Orioles. In this companion piece, I look at that same Baltimore farm system through the lens of my KATOH projection system. There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.
Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their age-28 seasons, those who receive a projection of at between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their age-28 seasons; and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.
1. Chance Sisco, C (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 9.7 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 7.1 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV
Cisco demolished High-A pitching last year to the tune of .308/.387/.422. He ran nearly-equal strikeout and walk rates, and complimented them with modest power and a high BABIP. That performance earned him a late-season cameo at Double-A, where he also excelled in many of the same categories. A season like that would be impressive from any 20-year-old, but Cisco’s is especially encouraging since he’s a catcher. Few catchers hit as well as Cisco has, making him one of the most compelling prospects in the game.
2. Trey Mancini, 1B (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 6.4 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.5 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV
Mancini hit the snot out of the ball between High-A and Double-A last year to the tune of .331/.370/.539. However, he did so as a first baseman who was old for his level, which takes some of the shine off of his performance. Even so, Mancini’s power makes him very exciting, especially since it doesn’t come with bloated strikeout rates. Time will tell if Mancini will sustain his 2015 breakout, but if he does, he could be a potent offensive force as soon as 2016.
3. Jomar Reyes, 3B (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 6.0 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.1 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 55 FV
At 18, Reyes was one of the youngest players in Low-A last year, but he still managed an encouraging .278/.334/.440 batting line. Power production like that is uncommon for someone that young, which puts Reyes on a promising trajectory. On the downside, he’s had some trouble staying healthy, and is currently rehabbing from a broken hamate bone. But when he’s managed to stay on the field, Reyes’ performance has been encouraging.
4. Jean Cosme, RHP (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.9 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): N/A
Dan’s Grade: 35 FV
A 2014 17th round pick, Cosme exceeded expectations last year in the New York Penn League. The 19-year-old put up a 23% strikeout rate over 12 starts, and allowed just two homers. Cosome ran a 4.74 ERA, so the results weren’t great, but his peripherals hint at a future in the big leagues. It will be very interesting to see how he fares in full-season ball in 2016. He also throws in the mid-90s, so he’s not just one of those guys who fools inexperienced hitters with deception and bendy stuff.
5. Cedric Mullins, OF (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.9 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): N/A
Dan’s Grade: N/A
Baltimore nabbed Mullins in the 13th round last year, and he closed out his draft year by hitting .264/.333/.375 with 17 steals in the New York Penn League. Mullins’ high-contact approach pairs well with his speed, but he offers little else offensively. He doesn’t hit for much power, and at 5-foot-8, that may never change. Still, the skills he does have make him a compelling prospect, although next year in full-season ball will be the real test.
*****
1-2 WAR Players
| Rank | Name | Position | WAR thru 28 | Dan’s FV |
| 6 | Alex Murphy | C | 1.5 | NA |
| 7 | Joe Gunkel | RHP | 1.2 | 35+ |
| 8 | Parker Bridwell | RHP | 1.2 | 45 |
| 9 | David Hess | RHP | 1.1 | 45 |
| 10 | Christian Walker | 1B | 1.1 | 40 |
| 11 | Tyler Wilson | RHP | 1.1 | 40 |
| 12 | Brian Gonzalez | LHP | 1.1 | NA |
| 13 | Travis Seabrooke | LHP | 1.1 | 35 |
| 14 | Ryan Mountcastle | SS | 1.1 | 40+ |
| 15 | Adrian Marin | SS | 1.1 | 40 |
Of the players in this tier of prospects, David Hess is perhaps the most notable. He pitched fairly well in A-Ball last year, but not well enough to outweigh the fact that he wasn’t particularly young for his level. Hess has very good stuff, but has yet to really distinguish himself statistically. Parker Bridwell’s a high-strikeout pitcher, which KATOH likes, but his age and elevated walk numbers stifle his projection. Bridwell’s 2015 season was cut short by elbow tendinitis, which may partially explain his lackluster results. Alex Murphy turned in a .257/.332/.426 showing in A-Ball, which was fairly encouraging for a catcher. He strikes out a bit much, but hit for decent power last year.
*****
Others
Dylan Bundy, RHP
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): N/A
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): N/A
Dan’s Grade: 55 FV
Way back in 2012, a 19-year-old Dylan Bundy whiffed 30% of opposing hitters in the minors and posted a 2.05 ERA. Fast forward three-plus years, and injuries have limited Bundy to just 65 minor league innings since. Bundy simply hasn’t played enough for KATOH to formulate an opinion on him. But his small-sample numbers from Double-A last year — a 1.81 FIP over 22 innings — suggest he’s still got it.
Hunter Harvey, RHP
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): N/A
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 4.1 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 55 FV
Harvey sat out the 2015 season with elbow discomfort, but is supposedly healthy now, and should be ready to go by spring training. In 2014, before his injury, he pitched to a 3.18 ERA in Low-A on the strength of a 29% strikeout rate. Those numbers make Harvey an extremely promising prospect, but it remains to be seen how he’ll bounce back from injury.
Christopher Lee, LHP
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 0.5 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45+ FV
Lee opened last season in the Astros organization, but was traded to Baltimore in May in exchange for a couple of international bonus slots. Lee pitched at three levels last year — Low-A, High-A and Double-A — where he put up a respectable 3.55 FIP. As a 23-year-old who went pro out of high school, Lee’s a bit old to have spent most of last season in A-Ball. However, as Dan noted in his write-up, Lee experienced a substantial bump in velocity late in the season, so his 2015 stats probably don’t do him justice. Lee’s case is a perfect example of how scouting the stat line can lead you astray.
D.J. Stewart, OF
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 0.1 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): N/A
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV
The Orioles took Stewart 25th overall in last summer’s amateur draft, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at his stat line. The Florida State product mustered just a .218/.288/.344 triple slash in 268 plate appearances in Short-Season A-Ball. The biggest culprit was his 19% strikeout rate, although he didn’t hit for very much power, either. A poor 60 games to start a pro career isn’t a death knell by any means, so take KATOH’s pessimism with a grain of salt. Stewart’s still a very talented ball player who crushed ACC pitching just a few months ago. But I might start to worry if he doesn’t perform next year, either.
Dariel Alvarez, OF
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 0.8 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.0 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV
At 27, Alvarez isn’t really a prospect anymore, which is why KATOH comes down pretty hard on him. KATOH projects WAR through age-28, after all, and Alvarez is nearly 28 already. But despite his age, the Cuban outfielder did some encouraging things at the Triple-A level last year. He paired a low strikeout rate (12%) with a healthy dose of power (.148 ISO). There’s reason to think he can be a useful role player in the big leagues.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Any thoughts on Yastzremski? I would be curious how he graded out.
KATOH’s really down on him. Already 25, high-ish strikeout rate and very little power/speed last year.
There is absolutely no change whatsoever in how the Phillies are run.
Bill Giles put the ownership group together with people who think like him 35 years ago. Guess what? Bill Giles is still there. He took part in the hiring of MacPhail and Klentak both. He was at the press conference announcing the hiring of Klentak.
35 Years.
Jim Thome and Cliff Lee
That’s it.
35 Years.
Carlos Ruiz and Maikel Franco, the only two starting quality players signed out of Latin America. Ruiz was signed out of Panama for eight thousand dollars. Need that in numerical form? $8,000- Eight Stacks.
Maikel Franco was signed for $100,000- That’s one hundred thousand American dollars. One hundred Stacks.
The Red Sox paid $63 million to sign Yoan Moncada. The Phillies paid $108,000- to sign both Carlos Ruiz and Maikel Franco.
Two real free agents and two starting position players from Latin America signed for nothing.
The Phillies Way is unchanged. They will sit in the cellar until they collect enough free talent in the MLB Plantation Slave Auction held every June. These young slave/intern players will be exploited to the max by the Phillies bloodsucking ownership cabal. For seven years they will make these bloodsucking criminals massive profits. If a few become fan favorites and the crowds are still huge as they near free agency then they will be signed to short, team friendly deals. If any have slipped through their screening process and turn out to be normal players seeking long contracts they will be demonized and booted out the door.
The Phillies after telling lies to their fan base from 2012 onward finally admitted they were “rebuilding”. The truth of the matter is they are already planning their next rebuild as they conduct this one.
THAT is The Phillies Way.
Google: Kevin Maitan FREE_AEC
…..
Your Harvey comments are wrong. He hasn’t yet had TJS and while he is currently down with the “persistent elbow soreness”… I would say the outlook is grim that he may be lost for all of 2016 and into 2017 if and when he does need TJS.
Thanks for that info on Harvey.
Everything is grim about the Orioles. Grimness will be central to the Orioles as long as Peter Angelos is the owner. The Orioles TV deal is pretty good. They once had monster attendance that went away due to Angelos, but could return.
At this point the Orioles best option is to deal Adam Jones and Manny Machado for the best position talent they can get and begin their rebuild. The longer they hold onto Jones and Machado the worse it’s going to be. If they dealt them this winter or by July they might be able to rebuild in six years. If they do what I expect and hold onto them like Davis and make fraudulent Angelos contract offers then the Orioles will be looking at a fifteen year rebuild since their drafting still stinks and they spend nothing internationally.
The Orioles are just like the Phillies, except they have less money. Andy MacPhail’s last employer before the Phillies was the Orioles.
Good catch, thanks.
Farnsworth talked about Mancini’s elbow locking in his load, causing some rollover and not being able to tap all his power in the majors. But he also liked his strength and hand eye. He really hammered the ball last year, not just pull. Strikeouts weren’t high. He didn’t walk a lot. I’d like to see more of that, but I think he could be a good one.
If it’s not too much trouble, would it be possible on future KATOH articles to give the age of the player so we can put the the age-28 projections in more context? Or am I misinterpreting how to use that number?
Joey Rickard is a rule 5 pick so he may not be considered a “prospect” but where would he be on this list if he were?
(I’m about to get on a plane and I’m in a hurry so I’m posting the query before reading the article, so it’s possible the question has already been answered.)
Chris profiled Rickard here after he got picked in the Rule 5.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-yesterdays-rule-5-selections/
Thanks for posting the link. Although this just went up today, I actually wrote it last week before the rule 5. I think Rickard’s very interesting. Should make for a solid fourth outfielder.
I agree: O,s should rebuild now. Rebuilding should have begun last All-star break. I don’t agree with using Manny as a chip..! Trade Jones; Absolutely! Time O’s face reality and build on young core: Manny, schoop Gausman, Walker Joseph, Yskremski, Cisco, Rhinmold and Bundy!
I so want to see a Christopher Lee in the Majors at the same time as a Vincent Price, maybe even a Peter Cushing.
Will the Mahalonobis distance player comps not be part of these? Too bad, they are often fun exercises in remembering past mediocre players once forgotten.
I heard that Dariel Alvarez will have the best right field arm in the majors any time he’s out there. Unfortunately, he can’t throw his way to first base. But maybe he can be a relief pitcher?
mmm…foretasted