KATOH’s Top 100 Prospect List for 2016
Please note that this is not the most recent list. An updated version can be found here.
Last week, I published a 2,000-plus word primer on the KATOH projection system I use to forecast prospects. Most notably, I discussed the improvements I made to the model and also explored how well individual minor league statistics can predict big league success. Today, I’m back with the end result of all of my math: KATOH’s top 100 list.
I know you probably know this, but I’d like to reiterate that you shouldn’t think of this as “Chris Mitchell’s Top 100 List,” and certainly not “FanGraphs’ Top 100 List.” This is simply the output from a flawed statistical model that fails to take into account many of the factors that go into evaluating a prospect. As always, you should never choose between stats and scouting — or beer and tacos — if you don’t have to.
There are players on this list who feel way too high to me, and there are players who feel way too low to me. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Plus, there are fewer of those head-scratchers than there were in previous versions. I consider this to be a good sign, considering my new model takes into account more information. I’ll be going more in-depth on each of these prospects — and many others, as well — as I work my way through the team lists.
I won’t say much else since I know most of you will just skip down to the leaderboard anyway. But first a couple of notes:
- This list only considers players with at least 300 plate appearances or batters faced in 2015. So most 2015 draftees and players below full-season ball were excluded. I will touch on some of the guys with fewer than 300 PA or BF in the team lists, but left them out here due to the limited amount of data on them.
- This list only considers 2015 minor league stats. So stats from 2014 and earlier aren’t considered. I realize this this might not be ideal, so I included each player’s 2014 KATOH forecast (using the new model) when applicable (ie. at least 200 PA or BF in 2014). Use that for a bit more context if you wish. I hope to condense things into one tidy number in the future, but don’t want to rush into using an arbitrary weighting system.
Enjoy.
| Player | Team | WAR thru 28 | 2014 WAR thru 28 | |
| 1 | Max Kepler | Twins | 19.6 | 0.8 |
| 2 | J.P. Crawford | Phillies | 17.5 | 6.3 |
| 3 | Corey Seager | Dodgers | 16.4 | 9.4 |
| 4 | Julio Urias | Dodgers | 15.6 | 4.5 |
| 5 | Orlando Arcia | Brewers | 14.5 | 4.5 |
| 6 | Alex Verdugo | Dodgers | 14.5 | 3.4 |
| 7 | Jake Bauers | Rays | 13.3 | 3.4 |
| 8 | Albert Almora | Cubs | 12.8 | 3.3 |
| 9 | Nomar Mazara | Rangers | 12.7 | 5.4 |
| 10 | Ozhaino Albies | Braves | 12.4 | 4.0 |
| 11 | Manuel Margot | Padres | 12.0 | 6.2 |
| 12 | Billy McKinney | Cubs | 11.2 | 1.7 |
| 13 | Jamie Westbrook | D-backs | 11.2 | 0.9 |
| 14 | Gavin Cecchini | Mets | 11.2 | 1.9 |
| 15 | Jacob Nottingham | Athletics | 11.0 | 0.1 |
| 16 | Alex Reyes | Cardinals | 10.8 | 1.6 |
| 17 | Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | 10.8 | 5.4 |
| 18 | Jose Berrios | Twins | 10.6 | 4.5 |
| 19 | Jose Peraza | Dodgers | 10.6 | 5.3 |
| 20 | Willson Contreras | Cubs | 10.1 | 0.1 |
| 21 | A.J. Reed | Astros | 9.9 | 1.3 |
| 22 | Chance Sisco | Orioles | 9.7 | 7.1 |
| 23 | Rafael Devers | Red Sox | 9.6 | 2.3 |
| 24 | Lewis Brinson | Rangers | 9.2 | 0.4 |
| 25 | Ruddy Giron | Padres | 9.1 | #N/A |
| 26 | Austin Meadows | Pirates | 8.7 | #N/A |
| 27 | Samir Duenez | Royals | 8.3 | 2.3 |
| 28 | Dom Nunez | Rockies | 8.0 | #N/A |
| 29 | Lucas Giolito | Nationals | 7.9 | 2.5 |
| 30 | Ramon Flores | Brewers | 7.7 | 4.1 |
| 31 | Trea Turner | Nationals | 7.6 | 0.6 |
| 32 | Willi Castro | Indians | 7.5 | #N/A |
| 33 | Josh Bell | Pirates | 7.5 | 3.1 |
| 34 | Juremi Profar | Rangers | 7.5 | 0.7 |
| 35 | Franklin Barreto | Athletics | 7.4 | 2.9 |
| 36 | Jesse Winker | Reds | 7.4 | 3.0 |
| 37 | Sam Travis | Red Sox | 7.3 | 1.9 |
| 38 | Carlos Tocci | Phillies | 7.3 | 0.5 |
| 39 | Renato Nunez | Athletics | 7.1 | 2.3 |
| 40 | Brett Phillips | Brewers | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| 41 | Blake Snell | Rays | 6.4 | 0.9 |
| 42 | Trey Mancini | Orioles | 6.4 | 0.5 |
| 43 | Jeimer Candelario | Cubs | 6.4 | 0.8 |
| 44 | Gleyber Torres | Cubs | 6.3 | 3.0 |
| 45 | Hanser Alberto | Rangers | 6.2 | 1.8 |
| 46 | Reese Mcguire | Pirates | 6.1 | 2.7 |
| 47 | Byron Buxton | Twins | 6.1 | #N/A |
| 48 | Mallex Smith | Braves | 6.1 | 0.9 |
| 49 | Jomar Reyes | Orioles | 6.0 | 1.1 |
| 50 | Alex Bregman | Astros | 5.9 | #N/A |
| 51 | Tyler Heineman | Astros | 5.9 | 1.4 |
| 52 | Andrew Knapp | Phillies | 5.7 | 0.1 |
| 53 | Dominic Smith | Mets | 5.6 | 0.6 |
| 54 | Boog Powell | Mariners | 5.5 | 0.7 |
| 55 | Ben Gamel | Yankees | 5.5 | 0.2 |
| 56 | Cole Tucker | Pirates | 5.4 | 0.5 |
| 57 | Javier Betancourt | Brewers | 5.4 | 1.1 |
| 58 | Gary Sanchez | Yankees | 5.3 | 1.4 |
| 59 | Nick Williams | Phillies | 5.3 | 0.3 |
| 60 | Edwin Diaz | Mariners | 5.2 | 0.9 |
| 61 | Clayton Blackburn | Giants | 5.2 | 4.6 |
| 62 | Christian Arroyo | Giants | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| 63 | Josh Hader | Brewers | 5.1 | 1.5 |
| 64 | Yairo Munoz | Athletics | 5.0 | 2.2 |
| 65 | Jose De Leon | Dodgers | 4.8 | 1.4 |
| 66 | Austin Barnes | Dodgers | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| 67 | Daniel Robertson | Rays | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| 68 | Rhys Hoskins | Phillies | 4.7 | 0.1 |
| 69 | Brandon Drury | D-backs | 4.6 | 3.0 |
| 70 | Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 4.6 | 0.7 |
| 71 | Zachary Davies | Brewers | 4.6 | 2.4 |
| 72 | Francis Martes | Astros | 4.4 | #N/A |
| 73 | Harold Ramirez | Pirates | 4.4 | 0.3 |
| 74 | Jacob Faria | Rays | 4.4 | 0.7 |
| 75 | Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 4.4 | #N/A |
| 76 | Tyler White | Astros | 4.3 | 1.0 |
| 77 | Willie Calhoun | Dodgers | 4.3 | #N/A |
| 78 | Franmil Reyes | Padres | 4.3 | 1.2 |
| 79 | Dylan Cozens | Phillies | 4.2 | 0.2 |
| 80 | Miguel Almonte | Royals | 4.2 | 0.9 |
| 81 | Kevin Padlo | Rockies | 4.1 | #N/A |
| 82 | Nick Gordon | Twins | 4.1 | 0.6 |
| 83 | Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 4.1 | #N/A |
| 84 | Jake Thompson | Phillies | 4.1 | 2.6 |
| 85 | Rowdy Tellez | Blue Jays | 4.0 | 1.1 |
| 86 | Steven Matz | Mets | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| 87 | Carson Kelly | Cardinals | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| 88 | Francelis Montas | White Sox | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 89 | Jorge Polanco | Twins | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 90 | Justus Sheffield | Indians | 3.9 | #N/A |
| 91 | Victor Reyes | D-backs | 3.9 | 0.0 |
| 92 | Robert Stephenson | Reds | 3.9 | 1.1 |
| 93 | Spencer Adams | White Sox | 3.9 | #N/A |
| 94 | Cheslor Cuthbert | Royals | 3.9 | 3.1 |
| 95 | Ryan Castellani | Rockies | 3.8 | #N/A |
| 96 | Ronald Torreyes | Dodgers | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| 97 | Zach Lee | Dodgers | 3.8 | 1.0 |
| 98 | Joey Rickard | Rays | 3.8 | 0.1 |
| 99 | Malquin Canelo | Phillies | 3.7 | 0.1 |
| 100 | Brent Honeywell | Rays | 3.7 | #N/A |
And so Marlins and Angels fans don’t feel left out…
| Player | Team | WAR thru 28 | 2014 WAR thru 28 | |
| 141 | Tomas Telis | Marlins | 2.9 | 4.0 |
| 175 | Tyler Deloach | Angels | 2.5 | 1.0 |
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Sorry for my ignorance, could someone explain the “WAR thru 28” and “2014 WAR thru 28” numbers?
WAR Thru 28 is the WAR this system projects each player to accumulate by age 28.
2014 WAR Thru 28 is the same statistic calculated using the 2014 version of the system.
Nah, it’s using the new system on their 2014 minor league stats.
This list only considers 2015 minor league stats. So stats from 2014 and earlier aren’t considered. I realize this this might not be ideal, so I included each player’s 2014 KATOH forecast (using the new model) when applicable (ie. at least 200 PA or BF in 2014). Use that for a bit more context if you wish. I hope to condense things into one tidy number in the future, but don’t want to rush into using an arbitrary weighting system.
KATOH only considers one year of stats. So “WAR thru 28” uses 2015 stats, while “2014 WAR thru 28” uses 2014 stats.
Chris, first, I LOVE this system. My eyes perk up whenever I see KATOH in a headline.
Anyway, with the information you provided above re: 2015/2014, does KATOH include stats for the player potentially playing in MLB in 2015 when using the 2014 stats (and potentially gaining WAR.)
Also, I know the system isn’t old enough, but do you plan to cross-reference the projections with actual output for players that are projected to make adjustments?
Thanks again
Why does no one have a 2014 WAR thru 28 over 10, while 20 people have WAR thru 28 over 10? Doesn’t seem to pass the eye test.
Generally those guys lose their prospect eligibility
God, the Dodgers are absolutely stocked.
🙂
I know everyone ranks prospects differently and there will be differences of opinion but some of these names really catch me off guard. I’m a Dbacks fan and have barely even heard of Jamie Westbrook and he’s ranked #13 overall. MLB.com doesn’t even rank him in the Dbacks team top 30.
He hit .319/.357/.510 as a 2B in High-A despite spending half the year as a 19-year-old. He was better than most of his peers despite being much younger. Don’t know much about his tools, but its hard to argue with that type of performance. Dan Farnsworth put him 14th on our D’Backs list, so maybe MLB.com’s omission says more about MLB.com than it does about Westbrook 🙂
Maybe they should bring him to ST and light a fire under Owings’ ass.
The one question I would have about that is what it says about him that he is already a 2B in High-A. Could that mean he’ll likely move even farther down the defensive spectrum?
Thanks for the update. Good to hear. 2B is a bit of a black hole at the major league level.
Or it tells us that minor league stats are meaningless, which is what Kiley has told us for the last year. I realize this is FG, but I have had enough of these useless Katoh posts. The comps are never meaningful and the rankings consistently identify non-prospects.
“I hope to condense things into one tidy number in the future, but don’t want to rush into using an arbitrary weighting system.”
If you add the same for, lets say 1 or 2 more years back, then the readers can concoct their own weightign systems in the interim… 🙂
I took the two years of data and used the linear trendline for those with numbers for both years to estimate the 2014 #N/A’s and then used 67%/33% for a combined number:
3 Corey Seager
2 J.P. Crawford
1 Max Kepler
4 Julio Urias
5 Orlando Arcia
6 Alex Verdugo
9 Nomar Mazara
11 Manuel Margot
7 Jake Bauers
8 Albert Almora
…
Players who moved the most positions:
+40 Ronald Torreyes
+23 Carson Kelly
+22 Daniel Robertson
+22 Cheslor Cuthbert
+20 Austin Barnes
+19 Clayton Blackburn
+18 Christian Arroyo
-17 Harold Ramirez
-17 Dylan Cozens
-16 Rhys Hoskins
+14 Brett Phillips
-14 Andrew Knapp
-14 Ben Gamel
-12 Nick Williams
-12 Nick Gordon
+11 Brandon Drury
+11 Jake Thompson
-11 Cole Tucker
-11 Jacob Faria
-10 Trey Mancini
So Verdugo is 10 WAR better than Matz?
Through their age-28 seasons, by this projection system which only uses minor league performance data, yeeep.
Lol. Matz @ 4 WAR through 28? He might be at 4 WAR by the end of the year.
Interested in how a player like Javier Betancourt makes the list? He hasn’t played above single A, hasn’t done amazing at that level and is not a highly touted talent. I am sure there are more examples of this on the list, but what about these players gets them to be a top 100 talent on this metric?
Precisely. The metric is designed (in part) to ignore the scouting element, and focus on what the stats/data are saying. I don’t know Javier Betancourt at all. I’m assuming he was young for his level, held his own, played a demanding defensive position, is tall, and has a favorable pre-professional background.
The 2000-plus word primer the author hotlinked explains some of the details of the system.
Maybe that’s what people mean when they say don’t scout the stat line.
Median age at high A ball is ~23.5. Betancourt turned 20 at the beginning of the season. That, combined with his low K% (Which KATOH weights heavily), position in the middle of the defensive spectrum, and league average batting line make Betancourt an interesting enough prospect to land in the middle of this list. Mostly it’s just the age, though.
Doesn’t strikeout though going against guys that are much older than him. Lots of these guys make it to the majors as utility guys or fringe starters even though the power numbers aren’t there and there.
Betancourt was very young for his level last year (19/20 in A+, while most others are 21+). He also makes a ton of contact, which KATOH really likes, and the power wasn’t non-existent. He feels too high to me too, but you can at least see where KATOH’s coming from.
Yeah, but how does he look in jeans?
No Sean Newcomb? Angels rejoice!
Very high BB% last year. He’s one of those guys whose stuff is ahead of his performance.
do you think KATOH is more reliable for hitting prospects, than for pitching?
I do.
But I think that’s the case for almost every metric – pitching prospects are simply far more variable.
This may sound silly, but is there a chance everyone was wrong about Buxton? Or not wrong, exactly, but perhaps he’s not going to be the offensive star some once thought.
I’m not basing it just on this projection, but I’m curious what others think.
His .283/.351/.489 line in AA this year looks quite good on the surface, but I’m not sure the .332 BABIP is sustainable in the majors. And the .207 ISO is extremely misleading because of 12 triples. Prorating that to a full season in AA produces about 13 homers, 26 triples, and only 16 doubles. And that’s in AA. There’s no way he’s going to hit 26 triples in the majors in a season. So even if every triple becomes a double, a 13 HR, 13 3B, 29 2B season looks less impressive. Still very good, but that’s assuming his AA numbers carry over completely.
Am I overreacting to a crazy high K/BB rate in the majors and a bad one in a very limited sample in AAA? He’s 22 now, so while he was young for the majors, and maybe AAA, he was likely right on target in AA.
I’m trying to decide where to target him in our dynasty replay draft next year. Defense matters for us, so even that AA line in the majors with plus CF defense would be phenomenal. But I’m worried there’s not as much room for power growth and he was so awful in the majors.
Someone talk me down?
jump
He was over matched on the breaking ball for sure. But, he seems to be the type that needs an adjustment period at each level. I’ve never been convinced he’ll be a great hitter, but I wouldn’t give up on him just yet.
I wish you would step back from that ledge my friend.
Mike Trout struggled the same way
While Buxton has had a disappointing 2014 and (to a lesser extent) 2015, mostly due to injuries, I really don’t think a .332 BABIP is unsustainable in the majors for someone with 80 grade speed. Indeed, I would bet good money that his BABIP will end up being higher than that in the majors. Buxton’s problem will most likely be Ks, not BABIP, and even that may end up being manageable.
I never saw Mike Cameron play in the minors, but I’d bet he looked like Buxton. A guy who’s been watching the Southern League (in a professional capacity) said the same thing. He said he didn’t think Cameron was going to be as good as he turned out, but said Buxton chould be better. Cameron hit for more power one year in the minors….especially once he turned 23. Go look up his stats.
Thanks for putting this together. Any chance of adding a column to show player’s position?
That, and how much of WAR is due to the player’s position would be very helpful.
Does KATOH have any sort of error bars that it generates for each player? I’d find that just as interesting if available
In what universe is Tim Anderson not a top 100 prospect?
Argh.
“I know you probably know this, but I’d like to reiterate that you shouldn’t think of this as “Chris Mitchell’s Top 100 List,” and certainly not “FanGraphs’ Top 100 List.” This is simply the output from a flawed statistical model that fails to take into account many of the factors that go into evaluating a prospect. As always, you should never choose between stats and scouting — or beer and tacos — if you don’t have to.”
He missed the cut mostly due to his high-ish K%. His low walk rate and mediocre power also didn’t help. I agree he feels like a top 100 prospect, but there are certainly reasons to be skeptical of him.
I know these are cornball, but:
In what universe is [my favorite team’s best prospect that isn’t on this list] not a top 100 prospect?
As a Phillies fan, it’s encouraging to see that the organization is no longer in shambles and its future bleak. Feels like we’re finally beginning the crawl out of the cellar.
As a Mets fan, I want to point out that I’m much more scared of the Phillies moving forward than the Braves – a team in the middle of selling off all its impact talent for middling, risky prospects.
How’s that working out for you now, chief?
Any plans to put up a full spreadsheet like last year? Maybe in Fangraphs+?
Another request: now that KATOH includes defensive metrics, any chance the WAR totals can be broken out by offense and defense?
It doesn’t, it just considers the player’s defensive position.
You can’t break WAR out into defensive and offensive components. WAR doesn’t work that way, it considers whe whole of a players contributions. What you’re probably looking for is offensive wins above/below average and defensive wins above/below average.
“What you’re probably looking for is offensive wins above/below average and defensive wins above/below average.”
That’s exactly what he asked for…
Awesome work! Do you have the full dataset available to the public similar to last year’s dataset through Google Docs?
Just curious how a guy who leads AA in home runs by double digits, RBI by over 20 and won 4 minor league championships in 4 years, never gets any consideration for a Top 100 prospect or WAR consideration. Adam Brett Walker II appears to be an amazing prospect (at least when I’ve watched him), but I never hear about him as a Top tier prospect.
To me, playing 4 full minor league seasons, from Rookie to AA, without ever being promoted in a season is a flag to me (maybe not red, but definitely yellow). Why has he never been promoted mid season?
He strikes out way too much. His skill set is great for putting up good minor league numbers, but guys like that usually don’t pan out in the big leagues. His power numbers are impressive, but not impressive enough to outweigh his chronic contact issues.
He’s 24 in AA, posted a .309OBP and 34.8K%. Long story short, he’s basically going up to the plate and swinging out of his shoes hoping for that rare chance that he makes contact.
Is that what is perceived (“swinging out of his shoes”) when you lead the league in home runs and strikeouts? He did lead the league in Total Bases and Extra Base Hits and RBI each of the last 2 seasons as well. He didn’t do all of that damage with just home runs.
This is really awesome, Chris. Love the KATOH model changes and excited to see some results. You touched on this in the intro post, but seems like the “through age 28” hammers older prospects beyond what their age-level status might contribute to a projection of future performance level. Would you consider posting a top 100 list that shows WAR through 28 divided by years left through 28 as a way to normalize?
Interesting idea. I’ll aim to put a list like that together this at some point this winter.
Pretty sure that that last table will not make Angels fans feel better.
I said “left out”, not “better”.
Maybe we’ll get lucky and have a couple more magical Giavotellas….Giavotellae.
…huh.
Why is Steven Matz so low? It doesn’t really seem right.
He was kind of old for his level. That’s understandable given he missed 2+ years with injuries, but KATOH doesn’t know that — It just sees a 24-year-old, which is a tad old for a prospect. Another factor is that he didn’t play a ton in the minors (due to injuries and callup), so its a bit hesitant to buy into his numbers.
If you were to re-run the formula with Matz as a 22-year old (his arm age) instead of as a 24-year old, how high would he jump on that list? Intuitively, he seems like he’d be better than a total of 3.4 fWAR over the next three Major League seasons, and might actually reach that 4.0 fWAR total as soon as 2016.
I have never heard of Samir Duenez, but seeing him in the top 30 made me do some investigating. He seems to be the kind of prospect that breaks KATOH. Granted he is a 19 year old single A 1B who doesn’t strike out a whole lot, but James Loney would laugh at his triple slash line of .266/.314/.332. It is hard to see what exactly KATOH sees in him that would lead to a projection of 8.3 WAR.
Gotta admit that I agree. Most of the bizarre names disappeared from the top of my list as I refined my models, but Duenez is one of the few who stuck around. But just to play devil’s advocate… Duenez turned 19 a couple of weeks before 6/30, so he was actually 18 for half of the year. He was a “very young 19”. Very few players that young are capable of holding their own in full-season ball. He’s also 6-foot-1, so more power should theoretically be on the way, which would make his numbers more appealing for a 1B. Plus, he stole 11 bases in 101 games, which implies some semblance of athleticism. I don’t think he’s a top 100 prospect by any stretch, but is still interesting to me.
Based on that (perceived) athleticism, do you think he may move to the Outfield? That would raise his value even more, probably, and also make the lack of power less of a problem.
I’m not really qualified to answer that, but Kiley called him “1B only” in last year’s writeup, so I’m inclined to say maybe not.
I’m interested in where Yoan Moncada ranks. Was it the strikeouts and/or his position that lowered his ranking?
KATOH doesn’t like Moncada mostly due to the strikeouts and position. Another factor is that he didn’t play all that much last year, so it regresses his stats to average more than it does for most. But given Moncada’s unique background and situation, it may be best to rely more on scouting for now, rather than scouting the stat line.
I’m curious how some numbers changed so much from when you ran your old KATOH projections. For example, when you projected Raul Mondesi Jr. right before the World Series, you had him at 9.1 WAR through age 28 and as the 17th ranked prospect overall, but he’s now no longer on this list, which seems odd given how the changes seemed to focus on properly adjusting for defensive positioning. Either way, I’m thankful that you share these projections and the 2014 KATOH projections appear to be holding up very well. I look forward to seeing how these prospects perform in the coming years.
Good question! Mondesi got dinged in a few places.
1) The new KATOH is tougher on players with above-average K%. Mondesi struck out 26% of the time last year, so he was one of the victims.
2) The new KATOH penalizes Caribbean-born hitters over HS/College guys.
3) The new KATOH uses age that’s un-rounded, rather than rounded to the nearest year. Since Mondesi was born just after the cut-off, he essentially went from age-19 to borderline age-20 thanks to the more precise measurement.
How did Victor Robles not make it? Didn’t have enough AB’s?
I’m guessing that low A (where Robles finished last year) was not inlcuded, only A, AA, and AAA. So that’s probably why.
Robles does look like a good prospect, with great strike zone judgement and good speed, but only a small amount of power (so far, at age 18) and an average that’s very reliant on an absurdly high BABIP.
Right, he fell short of the 300 PA mark. KATOH really likes his SSS numbers though.
As a Brewers fan, it is heartening to see them well-represented, but the guy I figured would be second or third on the list for them was strangely absent. For Jorge Lopez, was it basically the lack of one standout area (younger for his level, but not exceptionally young; 8+ Ks per 9 instead of 10; etc.)? Or did the two end-of-the-season big league starts ding him?
Lopez was actually very close to making the cut. His minor league peripherals (mainly his walk rate) suggest he wasn’t as good as his 2.26 ERA would suggest.
thanks–fascinating!!how does jorge soler come out under the new KATOH projection system? how much of an effect do you think player height variable had on the outcomes?
The Angels and Marlins addition made me laugh.
I’m not complaining, just trying to understand this better. Does this system tend to reward AVG and SB more than HR? Or is it mainly that it rewards a 19/20 year old for having a high AVG in Double A, and because he is only 19 his power hasn’t really developed yet?
It takes into account a wide range of factors. Check the primer I linked to in the beginning for the full detail and key takeaways.
Thanks, that helped a lot. Using an economics background for baseball prospects is very interesting.
To my credit, I did click on “beer and tacos.”
Interesting that Jack Flaherty figures in this list but Luke Weaver does not, given that they were in the same draft and Weaver has been doing at least as well, if not better, in a higher league. Just an age difference?
Mostly. Flaherty’s over 2 years younger. He also had a higher K%, which contributed as well.
God I hope KATOH is right about Chance Sisco. I want 20 years of Orioles Superstar Chance Sisco in my life.
On similar lines, can we agree that it should be Maximilian Kepler? German outfielder Maximilian Kepler.
I was skeptical about katoh before last year. I think you have a really interesting system now though. My question… Is there a way to account for your superstars totals to be closer? Barring injuries, Correa and Bryant should dwarf their totals. Anyways, great job!
I think its OK that it projects very few superstars, actually. Even though we know there will always be superstars, the odds that any individual MiLB player will reach that level aren’t great.
There doesn’t appear to be a very strong correlation between season, as the WAR/28 and 14WAR/28 differ wildly in some cases. Does this give you pause regarding the potential usefulness of such a system? If a guy like Kepler can go from an afterthought to far and away the best guy in the system based solely off of less than 500 ABs, are you forecasting more actual talent or just random noise?
It does give me pause, which is why I plan to incorporate multiple years in the future. Though I’d argue that prospects fluctuate a good amount from year-to-year on all prospect lists. KATOH’s is just more sensitive to these fluctuations since it only incorporates one year of data. And Max Kepler is kind of an unusual case… Just about everyone had him as an afterthought heading into the year, but there’s no denying that his 2015 performance was exceptional.
It’s weird to me to think that the 100th best prospect is going to have only a 3.7 war when he is 28. I’m not saying it’s wrong at all. It’s just interesting.
It’s not saying that. It’s saying on average, the 100th best prospect will generate that amount. The 100th best prospect will be a bust and contribute 0 WAR a significant amount of time.
On that note, it would be nice to see their predicted bust rate alongside the average WAR. Thanks for the list Chris and thanks for hanging out in the comments with us.
As someone who is able to watch a lot of minor league baseball on the East Coast, I first want to say that I am pleased to see that Phillies 1st base prospect Rhys Hoskins is FINALLY getting some love form someone! The fact that you have him 68th tells me that my eye test was probably correct on him (at least for this season) when I had a chance to see him in the South Atlantic League. I am also happy to see Trey Mancini on this board as well. It shows that the KATOH meter truly looks at a players ability at the plate. Saying that however, I have to admit that I also have some flaws here (and a part of this may be because I don’t understand the rating fully). I find it quite surprising that players like Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer were left off this list considering they were probably 2 of the better players in the Carolina League. In fact, in my opinion, Zimmer was the best player I had a chance to see last year between 4 different leagues that ranged from low A (New York Penn) to AAA (International League). I also find it odd that this type of meter only ranks a player from their offensive talent and not on their fielding and all around game. I am curious, in your opinion, how much you think your list would change if you take into account the other 3 tools of a player (fielding, throwing, running). I am willing to bet a player like Orioles Chance Sisco drops considerably on this list?
I have no content to add. Just wanted to say thanks for making every single one of those names a link.
It’s the little things in life…
Of interest to me as a Brewer fan:
Two of David Stearns’ first trades were for prospects not highly rated on traditional scouting lists, but in KATOH top 100: Ramon Flores (30) and Javier Betancourt (57). Maybe his analytics models indicated some value.
Thanks for posting the 2016 version! Any chance you’d extend the list to 200 like you did last year? I think it’s pretty neat to see how guys like Jose De Leon, Renato Nunez, Orlando Arcia, Frankie Montas, and Brandon Drury jumped from the 101-200 level based on projections from 2014 to the top 100 this time. Of course, KATOH has its limitations, but its face validity looks really solid.
Does your model account for the fact that LHBs are more likely to get platooned, and thus accumulate less playing time and fewer WAR in real life?
I have to ask: does KATOH take into account minor league park factors? Also, does it adjust for each league’s respective run environment?
If it doesn’t do that, than KATOH is pretty much useless. A lot of the guys I’m seeing on this list are just youngish hitters playing in hitter-friendly environments.
KATOH is useless more so because the premise is faulty: that minor league numbers can be used to predict MLB outcome.
According to his THT article, it accounts for league but not park. I love the amount of work that has been put into this project, but ignoring park effects altogether is a pretty big flaw.
http://minorleaguecentral.com/parkfactors
Thanks a ton for this. Absolutely love it. Looked into a whole bunch of different players that weren’t on my radar at all and some I like more now that were on the border for me.