KATOH’s Top 100 Prospect List for 2016

by
November 30, 2015

Please note that this is not the most recent list. An updated version can be found here.

Last week, I published a 2,000-plus word primer on the KATOH projection system I use to forecast prospects. Most notably, I discussed the improvements I made to the model and also explored how well individual minor league statistics can predict big league success. Today, I’m back with the end result of all of my math: KATOH’s top 100 list.

I know you probably know this, but I’d like to reiterate that you shouldn’t think of this as “Chris Mitchell’s Top 100 List,” and certainly not “FanGraphs’ Top 100 List.” This is simply the output from a flawed statistical model that fails to take into account many of the factors that go into evaluating a prospect. As always, you should never choose between stats and scouting — or beer and tacos — if you don’t have to.

There are players on this list who feel way too high to me, and there are players who feel way too low to me. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Plus, there are fewer of those head-scratchers than there were in previous versions. I consider this to be a good sign, considering my new model takes into account more information. I’ll be going more in-depth on each of these prospects — and many others, as well — as I work my way through the team lists.

I won’t say much else since I know most of you will just skip down to the leaderboard anyway. But first a couple of notes:

  • This list only considers players with at least 300 plate appearances or batters faced in 2015. So most 2015 draftees and players below full-season ball were excluded. I will touch on some of the guys with fewer than 300 PA or BF in the team lists, but left them out here due to the limited amount of data on them.
  • This list only considers 2015 minor league stats. So stats from 2014 and earlier aren’t considered. I realize this this might not be ideal, so I included each player’s 2014 KATOH forecast (using the new model) when applicable (ie. at least 200 PA or BF in 2014). Use that for a bit more context if you wish. I hope to condense things into one tidy number in the future, but don’t want to rush into using an arbitrary weighting system.

Enjoy.

KATOH’s Top 100 Prospects for 2016
Player Team WAR thru 28 2014 WAR thru 28
1 Max Kepler Twins 19.6 0.8
2 J.P. Crawford Phillies 17.5 6.3
3 Corey Seager Dodgers 16.4 9.4
4 Julio Urias Dodgers 15.6 4.5
5 Orlando Arcia Brewers 14.5 4.5
6 Alex Verdugo Dodgers 14.5 3.4
7 Jake Bauers Rays 13.3 3.4
8 Albert Almora Cubs 12.8 3.3
9 Nomar Mazara Rangers 12.7 5.4
10 Ozhaino Albies Braves 12.4 4.0
11 Manuel Margot Padres 12.0 6.2
12 Billy McKinney Cubs 11.2 1.7
13 Jamie Westbrook D-backs 11.2 0.9
14 Gavin Cecchini Mets 11.2 1.9
15 Jacob Nottingham Athletics 11.0 0.1
16 Alex Reyes Cardinals 10.8 1.6
17 Tyler Glasnow Pirates 10.8 5.4
18 Jose Berrios Twins 10.6 4.5
19 Jose Peraza Dodgers 10.6 5.3
20 Willson Contreras Cubs 10.1 0.1
21 A.J. Reed Astros 9.9 1.3
22 Chance Sisco Orioles 9.7 7.1
23 Rafael Devers Red Sox 9.6 2.3
24 Lewis Brinson Rangers 9.2 0.4
25 Ruddy Giron Padres 9.1 #N/A
26 Austin Meadows Pirates 8.7 #N/A
27 Samir Duenez Royals 8.3 2.3
28 Dom Nunez Rockies 8.0 #N/A
29 Lucas Giolito Nationals 7.9 2.5
30 Ramon Flores Brewers 7.7 4.1
31 Trea Turner Nationals 7.6 0.6
32 Willi Castro Indians 7.5 #N/A
33 Josh Bell Pirates 7.5 3.1
34 Juremi Profar Rangers 7.5 0.7
35 Franklin Barreto Athletics 7.4 2.9
36 Jesse Winker Reds 7.4 3.0
37 Sam Travis Red Sox 7.3 1.9
38 Carlos Tocci Phillies 7.3 0.5
39 Renato Nunez Athletics 7.1 2.3
40 Brett Phillips Brewers 6.8 6.2
41 Blake Snell Rays 6.4 0.9
42 Trey Mancini Orioles 6.4 0.5
43 Jeimer Candelario Cubs 6.4 0.8
44 Gleyber Torres Cubs 6.3 3.0
45 Hanser Alberto Rangers 6.2 1.8
46 Reese Mcguire Pirates 6.1 2.7
47 Byron Buxton Twins 6.1 #N/A
48 Mallex Smith Braves 6.1 0.9
49 Jomar Reyes Orioles 6.0 1.1
50 Alex Bregman Astros 5.9 #N/A
51 Tyler Heineman Astros 5.9 1.4
52 Andrew Knapp Phillies 5.7 0.1
53 Dominic Smith Mets 5.6 0.6
54 Boog Powell Mariners 5.5 0.7
55 Ben Gamel Yankees 5.5 0.2
56 Cole Tucker Pirates 5.4 0.5
57 Javier Betancourt Brewers 5.4 1.1
58 Gary Sanchez Yankees 5.3 1.4
59 Nick Williams Phillies 5.3 0.3
60 Edwin Diaz Mariners 5.2 0.9
61 Clayton Blackburn Giants 5.2 4.6
62 Christian Arroyo Giants 5.1 4.6
63 Josh Hader Brewers 5.1 1.5
64 Yairo Munoz Athletics 5.0 2.2
65 Jose De Leon Dodgers 4.8 1.4
66 Austin Barnes Dodgers 4.8 4.8
67 Daniel Robertson Rays 4.8 5.1
68 Rhys Hoskins Phillies 4.7 0.1
69 Brandon Drury D-backs 4.6 3.0
70 Michael Fulmer Tigers 4.6 0.7
71 Zachary Davies Brewers 4.6 2.4
72 Francis Martes Astros 4.4 #N/A
73 Harold Ramirez Pirates 4.4 0.3
74 Jacob Faria Rays 4.4 0.7
75 Ariel Jurado Rangers 4.4 #N/A
76 Tyler White Astros 4.3 1.0
77 Willie Calhoun Dodgers 4.3 #N/A
78 Franmil Reyes Padres 4.3 1.2
79 Dylan Cozens Phillies 4.2 0.2
80 Miguel Almonte Royals 4.2 0.9
81 Kevin Padlo Rockies 4.1 #N/A
82 Nick Gordon Twins 4.1 0.6
83 Jack Flaherty Cardinals 4.1 #N/A
84 Jake Thompson Phillies 4.1 2.6
85 Rowdy Tellez Blue Jays 4.0 1.1
86 Steven Matz Mets 4.0 1.4
87 Carson Kelly Cardinals 4.0 3.7
88 Francelis Montas White Sox 4.0 1.7
89 Jorge Polanco Twins 4.0 1.7
90 Justus Sheffield Indians 3.9 #N/A
91 Victor Reyes D-backs 3.9 0.0
92 Robert Stephenson Reds 3.9 1.1
93 Spencer Adams White Sox 3.9 #N/A
94 Cheslor Cuthbert Royals 3.9 3.1
95 Ryan Castellani Rockies 3.8 #N/A
96 Ronald Torreyes Dodgers 3.8 4.9
97 Zach Lee Dodgers 3.8 1.0
98 Joey Rickard Rays 3.8 0.1
99 Malquin Canelo Phillies 3.7 0.1
100 Brent Honeywell Rays 3.7 #N/A

And so Marlins and Angels fans don’t feel left out…

Marlins’ and Angels’ Top Prospects for 2016, Per KATOH
Player Team WAR thru 28 2014 WAR thru 28
141 Tomas Telis Marlins 2.9 4.0
175 Tyler Deloach Angels 2.5 1.0





 

Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

104 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Dave
9 years ago

Sorry for my ignorance, could someone explain the “WAR thru 28” and “2014 WAR thru 28” numbers?

0
Rex Manning Day
9 years ago
Reply to  Dave

WAR Thru 28 is the WAR this system projects each player to accumulate by age 28.

2014 WAR Thru 28 is the same statistic calculated using the 2014 version of the system.

0
JorgeFabregas
9 years ago
Reply to  Rex Manning Day

Nah, it’s using the new system on their 2014 minor league stats.

16
Yosted
9 years ago
Reply to  Dave

This list only considers 2015 minor league stats. So stats from 2014 and earlier aren’t considered. I realize this this might not be ideal, so I included each player’s 2014 KATOH forecast (using the new model) when applicable (ie. at least 200 PA or BF in 2014). Use that for a bit more context if you wish. I hope to condense things into one tidy number in the future, but don’t want to rush into using an arbitrary weighting system.

0
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  Dave

KATOH only considers one year of stats. So “WAR thru 28” uses 2015 stats, while “2014 WAR thru 28” uses 2014 stats.

4
Joe
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris Mitchell

Chris, first, I LOVE this system. My eyes perk up whenever I see KATOH in a headline.

Anyway, with the information you provided above re: 2015/2014, does KATOH include stats for the player potentially playing in MLB in 2015 when using the 2014 stats (and potentially gaining WAR.)

Also, I know the system isn’t old enough, but do you plan to cross-reference the projections with actual output for players that are projected to make adjustments?

Thanks again

1
Jeb
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris Mitchell

Why does no one have a 2014 WAR thru 28 over 10, while 20 people have WAR thru 28 over 10? Doesn’t seem to pass the eye test.

0
Spencer JonesMember since 2020
9 years ago
Reply to  Jeb

Generally those guys lose their prospect eligibility

1