KATOH’s Top 200 Prospect List

Earlier this week, lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel published our top 200 prospect list. Later that day, I made my FanGraphs debut looking at how the players on that list graded out according to KATOH — my prospect projection system. Now I’m back with more stats-based prospect analysis only this time, I’ve compiled a list of the top 200 minor leaguers ranked by their KATOH projections.

Just to be clear, this list isn’t intended to compete with or undermine Kiley’s rankings in any way. KATOH isn’t meant to be the the final word on prospect evaluation, but should instead be used as a tool to complement the work done by Kiley and other prospect experts. What follows is simply the output of a (flawed) statistical model that’s been sorted from largest to smallest without any sort of adjustment. But while it may be an imperfect exercise, ranking players exclusively by their KATOH projections makes it easy to spot instances where the stats disagree with the general scouting consensus. Even if, as they likely are in many cases, the scouts turn out to be correct, it’s still worth highlighting the players for which there is a significant difference. Some of the guys below are going to prove scouts wrong; figuring out which is the tricky part.

Looking at the two lists side-by-side, there was one recurring theme that really jumped out at me: KATOH favors hitters much more than Kiley did in his list. For instance, a hitter ranked in the 20’s on Kiley’s list gets a KATOH projection of roughly 7 WAR on average, while a pitcher with the same ranking comes in at around 5 WAR. Hopefully a graphic will help visualize this phenomenon:

This trend is pretty stark, but I wouldn’t necessarily take this to mean that Kiley is too aggressive in his rankings of pitchers. Stats alone never tell the whole story, but they tell an especially small piece of the story for pitchers, whose path to major league success depends heavily on the quality of his stuff. Stuff is what differentiates a Felix Hernandez from a soft-tosser like Yusmiero Petit when both are putting up dominant numbers in the minors, and I’d bet that most of the pitchers on Kiley’s top 200 list are more Hernandez than Petit. But KATOH doesn’t know that.

At the top of KATOH’s list is Joc Pederson, who came in at #11 according to Kiley’s rankings. McDaniel slapped a 60 FV on Pederson, which is certainly nothing to sneeze at, but is a couple of notches below elite. KATOH, on the other hand, loves Pederson. It forecasts him for a whopping 18.3 WAR through age 28, putting him a healthy 2.3 WAR ahead of second place Kris Bryant, who was Kiley’s top-rated prospect. For reference, the three most recent outfielders who accumulated 17-20 WAR through age 28 were Carlos Gonzalez, Hunter Pence, and Jacoby Ellsbury Not too shabby.

Statistically, there’s not much not to dislike about Pederson. He hit a crazy .303/.435/.582 with Triple-A Albuquerque as a 22-year-old last year, and kicked in 30 steals to boot. Those numbers are a little inflated by the fact that he played in the Pacific Coast League (PCL), but KATOH takes this into account, and still likes him more than any other prospect in baseball. Still, its easy to see why Kiley didn’t include Pederson near the top of his list. As great as his statistical profile looks, none of Pederson’s tools received a grade higher than 60, meaning he’s unlikely to get much better than he already is.

Although he’s no longer a prospect, I feel Mookie Betts deserves a mention as well, as his 21.6 WAR was the highest KATOH projection of any player with at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last year. Betts raked at every single minor league stop, but his small stature and lackluster tools have led to questions about his upside. KATOH doesn’t take a player’s size into account (working on that!), but it sees his statistical performance and anticipates great things. If he’d received 60 fewer at bats last year, his name would be gracing the top of KATOH’s list.

Now for some players where KATOH vehemently disagrees with Kiley’s rankings. Here’s a quick look at the biggest snubs from each list — the top hitter and top pitcher. These are the prospects who ranked near the top of one list, but missed the cut on the other. I only considered players who spent the majority 2014 season in full-season ball (Low-A or above) since KATOH projections can get pretty wonky when they’re based on stats from short-season ball.

KATOH’s biggest snubs according to Kiley:

Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox

Kiley ranked Anderson 45th overall on his list, mainly on the strength of his pure athletic ability — His speed, arm, and bat control all grade out as plus. The tools are great, but Kiley notes that the 21-year-old’s plate discipline could still use a some work, and KATOH agrees. High-A is the level where a hitter’s walks really start to mean something, and Anderson’s 2% walk rate is about as bad as it gets. This, coupled with the fact that Anderson wasn’t overly young for his level, lead KATOH to project the toolsy shortstop for a measly 2.2 WAR through age 28, despite his solid .301/.327/.481 batting line. Anderson’s stats lag behind his tools, making him exactly the type of player who’s likely to blow by hi projection; but until he does something about his plate discipline, KATOH’s not going to be on board.

Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros

Kiley ranked Appel 18th overall on his list, which is actually pretty low for a guy who was drafted first overall out of college just 20 months ago. The reason for his conservative ranking is the same reason why KATOH dislikes him: His 2014 stunk . Well, at least part of it did. Appel got off to a terrible start to the year due to a mysterious drop in velocity, and while the problem eventually corrected itself, his 2014 stat line still looks pretty dismal. KATOH doesn’t know about Appel’s yoyo-ing velocity, but looks at his 2014 and sees a 22-year-old with middling strikeout (20%) and walk (6%) rates in High-A and Double-A. Maybe Appel’s 2014 will prove to be nothing more than a weird blip on the radar, but it happened, and KATOH doesn’t like that it happened. That’s why it handed him a dismal 1.7 WAR projection.

Kiley’s biggest snubs according to KATOH:

Domingo Leyba, 2B/SS, Arizona Diamondbacks

Leyba split 2014 between the New York Penn League (A-) and the Midwest League (Low-A) as an 18-year-old, making him very young for his level. Yet despite his youth, Leyba held his own by hitting a more-than-respectable .322/.358/.430 in 70 games. Leyba hit for very little power last year, but did an excellent job of putting the ball in play — Only 11% of his plate appearances ended in a strikeout.

Kiley gave Leyba a FV of just 40+ — essentially labeling him a future backup — thanks to his underwhelming tools and inability to play an adequate shortstop. KATOH knows nothing about the tools Leyba has or doesn’t have. All it knows is that he did nothing but hit last year despite being very young for his level, and forecasts an impressive 10.1 WAR for him through age 28 — good for the 11th best projection, overall.

Clayton Blackburn, RHP, San Francisco Giants

Blackburn spent 2014 as a 21-year-old in Double-A and pitched to a very respectable 3.29 ERA over 18 starts. As solid as that sounds, Blackburn’s peripheral stats suggest he pitched even better than that. His FIP checked in at a rosy 2.54 on the strength of his 85:20 (4.5) strikeout to walk ratio, and one homer allowed over 18 starts. His home run total was probably helped by some HR/FB luck, but to his credit, he did manage to keep the ball on the ground 56% of the time last year. All of this good work resulted in a 6.5 WAR projection from KATOH, placing him 40th overall.

Still, despite the fact that he dominated Double-A hitters year, Kiley gave Blackburn a FV of just 40, on account of his uninspiring stuff. Only one of Blackburn’s pitches — his curveball — projects to be even above average. Blackburn’s stuff suggests that he’ll get eaten alive by big league hitting, but he’s been nothing short of excellent in his ascent to through the minors leagues so far. And until that changes, KATOH will continue to believe, for better or for worse.

Without further ado, here it is: KATOH’s full top 200 list. Note that player’s who received fewer than 200 PA’s or BF in 2014 were not considered.

Rank	Name	Team	WAR through Age 28	Kiley’s Rank
1	Joc Pederson	LAD	18.3	11
2	Kris Bryant	CHC	16.0	1
3	Jorge Soler	CHC	15.6	13
4	Addison Russell	CHC	13.1	3
5	Julio Urias	LAD	12.2	4
6	Noah Syndergaard	NYM	11.5	19
7	Joey Gallo	TEX	11.0	16
8	Alex Verdugo	LAD	10.8	Honorable Mention
9	Ozhaino Albies	ATL	10.6	34
10	Gleyber Torres	CHC	10.6	Honorable Mention
11	Domingo Leyba	ARI	10.1	Unranked
12	Dilson Herrera	NYM	9.7	109
13	Alex Palma	NYY	9.1	Unranked
14	Francisco Lindor	CLE	8.8	14
15	Yeyson Yrizarri	TEX	8.7	Unranked
16	Ketel Marte	SEA	8.6	Honorable Mention
17	Jose Peraza	ATL	8.5	44
18	Domingo Santana	HOU	8.2	Honorable Mention
19	Michael De Leon	TEX	7.9	Unranked
20	Ramon Flores	NYY	7.9	Unranked
21	Corey Seager	LAD	7.9	6
22	Giovanny Urshela	CLE	7.8	Unranked
23	Manuel Margot	BOS	7.7	35
24	Leonardo Molina	NYY	7.5	Unranked
25	Carlos Correa	HOU	7.4	5
26	Jomar Reyes	BAL	7.4	Honorable Mention
27	Jake Bauers	SDP	7.2	Unranked
28	Matt Olson	OAK	7.2	Honorable Mention
29	Luis Severino	NYY	7.2	26
30	Dalton Pompey	TOR	7.1	80
31	Alen Hanson	PIT	7.0	Honorable Mention
32	Jose Berrios	MIN	7.0	24
33	Tyler Glasnow	PIT	6.9	12
34	Raul Mondesi	KCR	6.8	61
35	Josh Morgan	TEX	6.7	Unranked
36	Cole Tucker	PIT	6.6	Unranked
37	Ronnie Torreyes	HOU	6.6	Unranked
38	Franklin Barreto	OAK	6.6	79
39	Jesse Winker	CIN	6.5	39
40	Clayton Blackburn	SFG	6.5	Unranked
41	Delino DeShields	TEX	6.4	Unranked
42	Maikel Franco	PHI	6.3	38
43	Henry Owens	BOS	6.2	33
44	Kyle Schwarber	CHC	6.1	21
45	Chance Sisco	BAL	6.0	78
46	Carlos Sanchez	CHW	6.0	Unranked
47	Archie Bradley	ARZ	5.7	32
48	Nomar Mazara	TEX	5.7	46
49	Cheslor Cuthbert	KCR	5.7	Unranked
50	Willy Adames	TBR	5.6	90
51	Rangel Ravelo	OAK	5.5	Unranked
52	Wendell Rijo	BOS	5.5	Unranked
53	Magneuris Sierra	STL	5.4	Honorable Mention
54	Edmundo Sosa	STL	5.3	Unranked
55	Marcos Molina	NYM	5.3	98
56	Rafael Montero	NYM	5.3	Honorable Mention
57	Matt Wisler	SDP	5.2	41
58	Greg Bird	NYY	5.2	120
59	Brett Phillips	HOU	5.2	107
60	Steven Souza	TBR	5.2	52
61	Ti’Quan Forbes	TEX	5.0	Unranked
62	Lucas Giolito	WAS	5.0	7
63	Rob Refsnyder	NYY	5.0	Honorable Mention
64	Hunter Harvey	BAL	5.0	36
65	Courtney Hawkins	CHW	5.0	Unranked
66	Daniel Norris	TOR	5.0	17
67	Mark Binford	KCR	4.9	Unranked
68	Hernan Perez	DET	4.8	Unranked
69	Victor Sanchez	SEA	4.8	Unranked
70	Dixon Machado	DET	4.7	Unranked
71	Billy Mckinney	CHC	4.7	Honorable Mention
72	Marcus Greene	TEX	4.7	Unranked
73	Ryan Mcmahon	COL	4.6	63
74	Nick Williams	TEX	4.6	136
75	Ji-Man Choi	SEA	4.6	Unranked
76	Jake Thompson	TEX	4.5	29
77	Rymer Liriano	SDP	4.5	Honorable Mention
78	David Dahl	COL	4.4	31
79	Sean Coyle	BOS	4.4	Unranked
80	Scott Schebler	LAD	4.4	Unranked
81	Randal Grichuk	STL	4.4	Honorable Mention
82	J.P. Crawford	PHI	4.4	10
83	Zach Davies	BAL	4.4	Honorable Mention
84	Harold Ramirez	PIT	4.4	Unranked
85	Blake Swihart	BOS	4.3	9
86	Nicholas Tropeano	LAA	4.3	Unranked
87	Eduardo Rodriguez	BOS	4.3	23
88	Taylor Lindsey	SDP	4.2	Unranked
89	Tyler Danish	CHW	4.2	142
90	Brian Schales	FLA	4.2	Unranked
91	Jacob Lamb	ARZ	4.2	Honorable Mention
92	Justin Williams	TBR	4.1	Unranked
93	Preston Tucker	HOU	4.1	Unranked
94	Francisco Mejia	CLE	4.1	Unranked
95	Andrew Heaney	LAA	4.1	50
96	Christian Bethancourt	ATL	4.0	106
97	Jesus Aguilar	CLE	4.0	Unranked
98	Luis Sardinas	MIL	4.0	Unranked
99	Lewis Brinson	TEX	4.0	131
100	Eric Jokisch	CHC	4.0	Unranked
101	Eduard Pinto	TEX	4.0	Unranked
102	Brandon Nimmo	NYM	4.0	85
103	Dustin Fowler	NYY	3.9	Unranked
104	Christian Arroyo	SFG	3.9	Honorable Mention
105	Ryan Brett	TBR	3.9	Unranked
106	Jace Peterson	ATL	3.9	Unranked
107	Jose De Leon	LAD	3.9	Unranked
108	Renato Nunez	OAK	3.9	Honorable Mention
109	Travis Shaw	BOS	3.9	Unranked
110	Lewis Thorpe	MIN	3.9	Honorable Mention
111	Zach Shepherd	DET	3.9	Unranked
112	Mike Foltynewicz	ATL	3.9	69
113	Stephen Piscotty	STL	3.9	81
114	Andrew Velazquez	TBR	3.9	Honorable Mention
115	Clint Coulter	MIL	3.8	Honorable Mention
116	Rowan Wick	STL	3.8	Unranked
117	J.T. Realmuto	MIA	3.8	Honorable Mention
118	Stephen Gonsalves	MIN	3.8	Unranked
119	Ben Lively	PHI	3.7	Unranked
120	Michael Taylor	WAS	3.7	Unranked
121	Alex Reyes	STL	3.7	76
122	Jose Martinez	ARI	3.6	Unranked
123	Akeel Morris	NYM	3.6	Unranked
124	Tyler Saladino	CHW	3.6	Unranked
125	Reymond Fuentes	KCR	3.6	Unranked
126	Matt Reynolds	NYM	3.6	Unranked
127	Kyle Crick	SFG	3.6	140
128	Trevor May	MIN	3.6	Unranked
129	Devon Travis	TOR	3.6	Honorable Mention
130	Ivan Wilson	NYM	3.5	Unranked
131	Edward Salcedo	PIT	3.5	Unranked
132	Tony Kemp	HOU	3.5	Unranked
133	Teoscar Hernandez	HOU	3.5	Unranked
134	Trevor Story	COL	3.5	Unranked
135	Chase Vallot	KCR	3.5	Unranked
136	Jonathan Galvez	NYY	3.5	Unranked
137	Micah Johnson	CHW	3.4	Unranked
138	Steven Moya	DET	3.4	Honorable Mention
139	Amaurys Minier	MIN	3.4	Unranked
140	Austin Barnes	LAD	3.4	Unranked
141	Daniel Robertson	TBR	3.4	97
142	Ian Clarkin	NYY	3.4	137
143	A.J. Cole	WAS	3.4	Honorable Mention
144	Javier Guerra	BOS	3.4	Unranked
145	Raimel Tapia	COL	3.3	91
146	Luiz Gohara	SEA	3.3	Unranked
147	Gerard Hernandez	ARI	3.3	Unranked
148	Nick Kingham	PIT	3.2	111
149	Edwin Escobar	BOS	3.2	Unranked
150	Luis Liberato	SEA	3.2	Unranked
151	Robbie Ray	ARZ	3.2	Unranked
152	Rio Ruiz	ATL	3.2	43
153	Kevin Plawecki	NYM	3.2	40
154	Dylan Unsworth	SEA	3.2	Unranked
155	Sam Travis	BOS	3.2	Unranked
156	C.J. Edwards	CHC	3.1	64
157	Orlando Arcia	MIL	3.1	87
158	Matthew Bowman	NYM	3.1	Unranked
159	Amed Rosario	NYM	3.1	60
160	Monte Harrison	MIL	3.1	Honorable Mention
161	Anthony DeSclafani	CIN	3.1	Unranked
162	Gabriel Guerrero	SEA	3.1	Unranked
163	Miguel Andujar	NYY	3.1	Unranked
164	Gary Sanchez	NYY	3.1	Unranked
165	Jose Pirela	NYY	3.0	Unranked
166	Luis Torrens	NYY	3.0	Unranked
167	Tomas Telis	TEX	3.0	Unranked
168	Franmil Reyes	SDP	3.0	Unranked
169	Carlos Tocci	PHI	3.0	Unranked
170	Correlle Prime	COL	3.0	Unranked
171	Cristhian Adames	COL	3.0	Unranked
172	Eury Perez	ATL	2.9	Unranked
173	Frankie Montas	CHW	2.9	113
174	Nicholas Rumbelow	NYY	2.9	Unranked
175	Jason Martin	HOU	2.9	Unranked
176	Kyle Waldrop	CIN	2.9	Unranked
177	German Marquez	TBR	2.9	Unranked
178	Jen-Ho Tseng	CHC	2.9	Unranked
179	Enny Romero	TBR	2.9	Unranked
180	Alex Meyer	MIN	2.9	71
181	Rowdy Tellez	TOR	2.9	Unranked
182	Enmanuel Zabala	NYM	2.9	Unranked
183	Nick Ahmed	ARI	2.8	Unranked
184	Samir Duenez	KCR	2.8	Unranked
185	Brandon Drury	ARZ	2.8	84
186	Kean Wong	TBR	2.8	Unranked
187	Mauricio Dubon	BOS	2.8	Unranked
188	Cesar Puello	NYM	2.8	Unranked
189	Chasen Shreve	NYY	2.8	Unranked
190	Wilfredo Tovar	NYM	2.8	Unranked
191	Andrew Aplin	HOU	2.8	Unranked
192	Carson Kelly	STL	2.7	Unranked
193	Garin Cecchini	BOS	2.7	Honorable Mention
194	Jorge Polanco	MIN	2.7	108
195	Kyle Lobstein	DET	2.7	Unranked
196	Isan Diaz	ARI	2.7	Unranked
197	Carlos Munoz	PIT	2.7	Unranked
198	Xavier Avery	DET	2.7	Unranked
199	Troy Stokes	MIL	2.7	Unranked
200	Samuel Tuivailala	STL	2.6	Unranked