KATOH’s Top Undrafted College Players
On Tuesday, I published a post projecting the players taken on day one of the draft. On Wednesday, I did the same for the players taken on day two. Yesterday, I did the same for day three. Today, let’s take a look at what my math says about the players who were eligible to be drafted but weren’t selected.
Below, you’ll find some quick thoughts on KATOH’s top-five hitters and top-five pitchers who weren’t drafted. Below that, you’ll find by a table with projections for all undrafted players who project for at least 0.4 WAR. As a reminder, I only have projections for college players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced in a Division 1 conference. I do not have projections for JuCo or high-school players. Note: WAR figures are projected totals for the relevant player’s first six years in the majors.
Cody Anderson, LHP, Washington State, 0.9 WAR
A 6-foot-6 lefty from Washington State, Anderson held his own in the Pac-12 this spring. He didn’t strike many guys out, but still managed to put up a 3.40 ERA.
Jared Janczak, RHP, TCU, 0.9 WAR
Janczak posted a sparkling 1.97 ERA across 13 starts, giving him the second-lowest ERA among starters in the Big 12. He also posted an impressive 91:19 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Brock Fulkerson, RHP, SIU-Edwardsville, 0.8 WAR
Fulkerson pitched to an ugly 6.32 ERA as a 6-foot-7 junior at SIU-Edwardsville, but his 69:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio suggests he was a bit unlucky. KATOH’s willing to overlook all that hard contact given his peripherals and height.
Luke Lind, RHP, North Dakota State, 0.7 WAR
Lind led the Summit League in strikeouts this spring with 92 in 82 innings. KATOH also likes his 6-foot-5 frame, although his eight homers allowed are a bit alarming.
B.J. Myers, RHP, West Virginia, 0.7 WAR
Myers’ 2017 performance was pretty ordinary, but he’s now turned in three solid seasons in a row for West Virginia. At 6-feet, he’s a little on the short side, but he rarely walks anyone.
L.T. Tolbert, IF, South Carolina, 0.5 WAR
A 6-foot-3 infielder from South Carolina, Tolbert slashed .284/.338/.368 this year. His line isn’t particularly exciting, but it came in a top conference and KATOH likes his minuscule 8% strikeout rate.
J.J Hancock, C, Washington State, 0.5 WAR
Hancock hit .298/.365/.452 in the Pac-12 this year on the strength of 14 doubles. He struck out in just 13% of his trips to the plate.
Cal Stevenson, OF, Arizona, 0.5 WAR
Stevenson slashed .311/.448/.461 at Arizona this year with a 19% walk rate and a 14% strikeout rate. He only stole five bases this spring, but swiped 10 in 36 games on the Cape last summer.
Taylor Schwaner, IF, Southeast Louisiana, 0.5 WAR
Schwaner hit a loud .332/.453/.668 this spring, and lead the Southland Conference with 16 homers. He also stole 17 bases. The downside is that he struck out 56 times in 59 games.
Ryan Anderson, IF, UC Davis, 0.5 WAR
Anderson hit .313/.372/.483 at UC Davis this spring, making him one of the Big West’s top draft-eligible hitters. He hit 14 doubles and struck out just 12% of the time.
| Name | Pos | School | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Heimlich | LHP | Oregon State | 6.4 |
| Cody Anderson | LHP | Washington State | 0.9 |
| Jared Janczak | RHP | TCU | 0.9 |
| Brock Fulkerson | RHP | SIU-Edwardsville | 0.8 |
| Luke Lind | RHP | North Dakota State | 0.7 |
| B.J. Myers | RHP | West Virginia | 0.7 |
| John Sheaks | RHP | Long Beach State | 0.6 |
| Brendan Burns | RHP | Ball State | 0.6 |
| L.T. Tolbert | IF | South Carolina | 0.5 |
| J.J Hancock | C | Washington State | 0.5 |
| Cal Stevenson | OF | Arizona | 0.5 |
| Taylor Schwaner | IF | Southeast Louisiana | 0.5 |
| Ryan Anderson | IF | UC Davis | 0.5 |
| Brendan Hornung | RHP | Hawaii | 0.5 |
| Steven Ledesma | RHP | UC Santa Barbara | 0.5 |
| Hunter Simmons | IF | Utah | 0.5 |
| A.J. Jones | RHP | Long Beach State | 0.5 |
| Nelson Mompierre | C | Missouri | 0.4 |
| Ryan Simpler | RHP | East Tennessee State | 0.4 |
| Conner Dotson | RHP | West Virginia | 0.4 |
| Nelson Martz | RHP | SIU-Edwardsville | 0.4 |
| Andrew Weston | RHP | Cal State Northridge | 0.4 |
| Adam Scott | LHP | Wofford | 0.4 |
| Blake Chisolm | IF | Sam Houston State | 0.4 |
| Luke Rasmussen | 1B | Long Beach State | 0.4 |
| Daniel Rosica | C | UCLA | 0.4 |
| Connor Van Hoose | RHP | Bucknell | 0.4 |
| Caleb Knight | C | Virginia | 0.4 |
| Tyler Lynn | OF | North Carolina | 0.4 |
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
While I applaud all MLB teams for not drafting registered sex offender Luke Heimlich, why do I get the feeling that if he threw 96-98 rather than 90-92 he would have gone in the first round?
Naw, I think he was untouchable still. There’s minor PR problems (like a guy smoking marijuana) then there’s major ones (like Heimlich).
He’ll certainly sign an UFA deal with someone on the low key.
I just don’t see it. Every team will have someone, be it an executive, coach or player with a young daughter. He won’t be welcome anywhere.
I mean, sex offenders need jobs too. Unless you prefer homeless sex offenders roaming around.
Sure. That doesn’t mean you get to have the job of “major league baseball player”.
I’m not trying to put professional athletes on pedestals they don’t deserve. The sheer volume of deserving and able candidates just makes me think that teams are going to have no problem not employing a player who molested a six year old.
I’m fairly certain he had a first round grade going into the draft, so his velo had nothing to do with it.
I think he can return to school — IIRC the athletic director said they would welcome him back as well
The coach said he was welcome back. The school said that they are reviewing the student-athlete policy. He may not be allowed to play by the school.
I understand the sentiment, but it’s almost certain that Heimlich, himself, was molested as a child, probably when he was around six years old. That’s almost always how it works, he was still a child when he did it, and there’s no indication that he’s done it as an adult. I think he’s deserving of our sympathy.
I am not sure how to feel about the entire situation. He was at the “playing doctor” age when it started. Teens and preteens brains are not fully devoloped…who knows.
He was 15 and she was six. I know exactly how I feel about it and I’m not sure how it’s confusing for you.