KATOH’s Top Undrafted College Players
On Friday, I published a post projecting the players taken on day one of the draft. On Saturday, I did the same for the players taken on day two. And yesterday, I did the same for those players selected on day three. Over 1,200 players were drafted across 40 rounds in this year’s draft. But KATOH still managed to find a few mildly interesting players who weren’t selected. Below, you’ll find the seven draft-eligible but undrafted players with the best projections. As a reminder, this analysis covers the following conferences: AAC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big West, Pac 12 and SEC. I expect a few of these guys will sign as undrafted free agents in the coming weeks.
*****
Anthony Papio, RSr., OF, Maryland
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.0
Papio had a solid season as a redshirt senior. I should note that his projection is partly due to a quirk with my model. The Big 10 model includes a variable that makes it slightly less harsh on older players. But since Papio’s the rare 23-year-old college player, it perhaps credits him a bit more than it should. Still, an .800 OPS with some speed in the Big 10 ain’t bad.
*****
Tom Marcinczyk, Jr., OF, Rutgers
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.5
Marinczyc’s an undersized outfielder who laced a bunch of doubles and triples against Big 10 pitching. He also did some damage with his legs by stealing 18 bags.
*****
Levi MaVorhis, Sr., RHP, Kansas State
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.3
MaVorhis allowed just 15 walks in 84 innings in Kansas State’s rotation. His 4.20 ERA is due to inflated home-run and BABIP figures, while his strikeout and walk numbers were on point. Not a bad performance against Big 12 hitters.
*****
Jake Placzek, Sr, IF, Nebraska
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.3
Placzek walked up a storm at Nebraska, while also hitting a fair amount of doubles. He’s still 21, making him younger than most college seniors.
*****
Zach Reks, Jr., OF, Kentucky
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.2
Reks walked more than he struck out against SEC pitchers, and also popped seven homers in 53 games.
*****
Parker Rigler, Jr., LHP, Kansas State
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.2
Like his teammate MaVorhis, Rigler posted solid strikeout and walk numbers, but was undone by the long ball.
*****
Elijah Sutherland, Sr., SS, North Carolina
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.2
Although he was a college senior, Sutherland doesn’t turn 21 until October according to The Baseball Cube. Considering he’s aged like a sophomore, his .232/.358/.378 showing in the SEC was somewhat encouraging. Of course, it’s also possible that Sutherland’s birthday is misreported. In which case, the projections would be different.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
This is really fascinating. I’d love to know whether there were negative reports on these guys from scouting, etc. or whether they were just misses. Thanks for the great work.
Probably more along the lines of negative scouting reports. All of these players play in top conferences alongside players who were drafted, so they’ve definitely all been seen many times. Since I was more focused on the top players, I didn’t do any analysis on the lower conferences. That’s where I imagine some guys might be just missed.