Kenley Jansen Is Marvelous
(Photo: TonyTheTiger)
Kenley Jansen certainly hasn’t been ignored around here. Back in June, for instance, Travis looked at how Jansen’s reliance on a single pitch compares to Mariano Rivera’s. And yet, I still feel like we don’t really appreciate just how great Jansen really is. Throughout this postseason, so much of the focus seems to go to Clayton Kershaw and Justin Turner. Or if not them, then colorful characters like Yasiel Puig or feel-good stories like Chris Taylor. Often, Jansen feels lost. Now, maybe that’s just a case of me miscalculating the extent of the coverage he receives or just being far too tired to think straight by the time Jansen gets into games, but I feel like the big righty is a little underappreciated. But if he performs the way that he’s been performing, that may change for good this week.
If you wander over to Baseball Reference, you’ll note that the innings-pitched threshold for their playoff leaderboards is 30 innings. Jansen doesn’t appear on these yet — for his career, he has 28.1 postseason innings — but logic dictates that he’s about to enter them this series, likely this week. Let’s take a look at where he’d rank on some of those leaderboards as of right now.
| Rank | Player | WHIP | IP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Affeldt | 0.702 | 31.1 |
| 2 | Monte Pearson | 0.729 | 35.2 |
| 3 | Roy Halladay | 0.737 | 38.0 |
| 4 | Mariano Rivera | 0.759 | 141.0 |
| 5 | Andrew Miller | 0.765 | 32.2 |
| 6 | Jim Lonborg | 0.780 | 33.1 |
| 7 | Sandy Koufax | 0.825 | 57.0 |
| 8 | Christy Mathewson | 0.836 | 101.2 |
| 9 | Marco Estrada | 0.839 | 47.2 |
| — | Kenley Jansen | 0.847 | 28.1 |
| 10 | Herb Pennock | 0.849 | 55.1 |
So, Jansen would rank 10th all-time in terms of WHIP. Not exactly a stat we focus on over on this blog, but impressive nonetheless. And he’s got some pretty good company on this list.
| Rank | Player | H/9 | IP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Affeldt | 4.021 | 31.1 |
| — | Kenley Jansen | 4.447 | 28.1 |
| 2 | Andrew Miller | 4.684 | 32.2 |
| 3 | Bruce Kison | 4.706 | 36.1 |
| 4 | Monte Pearson | 4.794 | 35.2 |
| 5 | Blue Moon Odom | 4.992 | 39.2 |
| 6 | Sherry Smith | 5.044 | 30.1 |
| 7 | Randy Myers | 5.283 | 30.2 |
| 8 | Tim Lincecum | 5.432 | 56.1 |
| 9 | Roy Halladay | 5.447 | 38.0 |
| 10 | Mariano Rivera | 5.489 | 141.0 |
Second is pretty good, I think. (Side note: maybe we also need to go back and appreciate Jeremy Affeldt’s career a little more.) Better than Roy Halladay, Andrew Miller, and Rivera is pretty good. Let’s look at one more.
| Rank. | Player | K/9 | IP |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Kenley Jansen | 14.929 | 28.1 |
| 1 | Andrew Miller | 13.225 | 32.2 |
| 2 | Wade Davis | 12.569 | 38.2 |
| 3 | Brad Lidge | 12.309 | 45.1 |
| 4 | Sterling Hitchcock | 12.033 | 30.2 |
| 5 | Francisco Rodriguez | 12.027 | 36.2 |
| 6 | Ryan Madson | 11.789 | 47.1 |
| 7 | Jake Arrieta | 11.278 | 52.2 |
| 8 | Dallas Keuchel | 11.202 | 31.1 |
| 9 | Max Scherzer | 10.976 | 82.0 |
| 10 | Armando Benitez | 10.681 | 30.1 |
I think best ever is also pretty good, right? Even if Jansen gets that next 1.2 IP to reach the 30-inning threshold without another strikeout, he’d still have a 14.1 K/9, which would still place No. 1 comfortably on this list.
This all strikes me as quite remarkable — for starters, that Jansen actually on the verge of reaching 30 IP for his postseason career. Craig Kimbrel, for reference, has thrown 10 IP in the postseason, and the two debuted in the same season. Zach Britton has just 4.2 postseason IP. Aroldis Chapman (28.1 IP) and David Robertson (30.0) are right with Jansen, as is Andrew Miller (32.2), but there just aren’t a ton of active pitchers who have amassed that kind of postseason bulk. Sergio Romo has already pitched in three World Series, and he’s still just at 23.1 IP for his postseason career. Jonathan Papelbon has been around since 2005 and has only recorded 27.0 postseason IP, and that’s a total he probably won’t be adding to, since he didn’t pitch in the majors this year. Other relief leaders since 2010 — Koji Uehara (18.0), Greg Holland (11.2), Mark Melancon (10.0) and Dellin Betances (5.2) — fall well short of Jansen. Obviously some of that is opportunity, but Jansen has remained effective throughout the entire stretch.
Of course, we needn’t look at Jansen’s greatness solely through the prism of the postseason. If you clicked through to that previous link, you’d have seen that, by WAR, Jansen has been neck and neck for best reliever in the game with Kimbrel since the two debuted back in 2010. This season, Jansen became one of just 19 relievers all time to put up 3.5 WAR in a single season. Also notable was the fact that Jansen’s 2017 campaign was just the fifth such season since 2000:
| Name | Team | Season | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | LOB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Gagne | Dodgers | 2003 | 82.1 | 15.0 | 2.2 | 83.9% | 1.20 | 0.86 | 1.18 | 4.7 |
| Brad Lidge | Astros | 2004 | 94.2 | 14.9 | 2.9 | 88.0% | 1.90 | 1.97 | 2.07 | 3.7 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | Angels | 2004 | 84.0 | 13.2 | 3.5 | 77.9% | 1.82 | 1.64 | 2.42 | 3.7 |
| Eric Gagne | Dodgers | 2002 | 82.1 | 12.5 | 1.8 | 85.1% | 1.97 | 1.80 | 2.16 | 3.6 |
| Kenley Jansen | Dodgers | 2017 | 68.1 | 14.4 | 0.9 | 91.3% | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.82 | 3.5 |
While subject in part to randomness, I’ve included left-on-base percentage here for a reason. Of the 7,503 qualified relief seasons throughout history, Jansen’s 2017 season is one of just 64 in which a pitcher had a 90%-plus LOB%.
From a WPA perspective, Jansen’s 5.33 WPA represents the 28th-best season ever, sandwiched right between a Brad Lidge and a Billy Wagner season. Pretty great company.
On a career level, Jansen already ranks 17th overall in terms of WAR. Both he and Kimbrel will almost assuredly pass Robb Nen next year, and if Jansen posts a 2 WAR season like he normally does (he’s posted a two wins or better in five of the past six seasons, and in the other year he posted 1.7 WAR), he could leap into the top 10 all-time, depending on how things go for Kimbrel (and perhaps also for Chapman). Perhaps my favorite part of this leaderboard is that Kimbrel and Jansen have reached their respective levels in so few innings. Right behind Jansen on the WAR leaderboard is Rodriguez, who has thrown more than twice as many innings in his career as has Jansen. A few of the pitchers ahead of Jansen threw more than three times as many innings. And, it’s not just WAR. Jansen ranks 21st all-time in terms of WPA.
Kenley Jansen is a pretty great pitcher. He’s been great in the regular season. He’s been great in the postseason. He’s working on 12 straight postseason appearances without allowing an earned run. He’s essentially posted the best K/9 in postseason history. In this World Series, he’s likely going to be tested. He’s the best relief pitcher on a team facing the best offense in the majors. If he does get the call, it’ll be must-see TV, and I wouldn’t bet against him.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
29 innings..31 innings..35 innings..32 innings..142 innings. One of those is not like the other.
I dont see 142 anywhere, is what’s different
Clearly a typo as he was referring to Mo’s 141.
Mariano Rivera basically throwing two full seasons’ worth of playoff innings is incredible yet somehow not even close to the most remarkable thing about those tables. Jeremy Affeldt??
Yeah, I think I’m going to have to go back and look at this over the winter.
Affeldt was also incredible in high-leverage regular season situations, not just the postseason. See what I wrote below. The guy had balls of steel and he could somehow get hitters to swing at absolute trash in important situations. He’s the one who was most responsible for Bochy’s reputation as a genius.
Affeldt’s eventual greatness is a testament to how bad the Royals’ ability to develop players was back in the day. Every Royals fan was waiting for the breakout that never came from a guy with an incredible curveball and good fastball. First, his blister problems kept blowing up his starts, so they moved him to the pen. Even in the pen, batters pulled everything and he couldn’t generate soft contact to save his life. They eventually gave up on him after four straight years of watching his ERA sit comfortably above his FIP.
In retrospect, it seems clear nobody who knew how he should pitch was working with him. In Colorado and Cincinnati he threw way more curves (supposedly the source of the blister problem) without losing time to the DL, something he probably could have done in Kansas City since reliever innings are more limited. He stopped giving up line drives and pulled pitches without any major change in his GB%. Then when he got to San Francisco he added a sinker and stopped giving up fly balls.
Good coaching: it’s good!
One thing to look at potentially is opponent handedness. Bochy never seemed to allow a righty to face a lefty and vice-versa. I’d be interested to see how much Affeldt benefitted from this if this was actually the case. How different was Affeldt compared to others on this list in terms of who he was allowed to face?
That isn’t really how Bochy used Affeldt. Lopez was the LOOGY. Affeldt was the guy they brought in in the middle of an inning (usually the 6th or 7th) with runners on base, without regard to whether the hitter was left-handed or right-handed.
SSS rules ratios
In high-leverage regular season situations, Affeldt is also #1 on the all-time list for lowest line-drive % and #3 on the all-time list for lowest hard-hit %:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=140&type=2&season=2017&month=26&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,a
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=140&type=2&season=2017&month=26&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,a
For some reason, he was incredibly good in important situations, regular reason or post-season.
Giants bullpen was so good in the playoffs for both 2010 and 2012, mixing and matching Lopez, Affeldt, Romo, Casilla, and Wilson (in 2010). It was tough to watch as a Dodgers fan because it seemed nobody could touch those guys and Bochy always made the right moves.
I’m a Bochy skeptic. I think they just happened to pitch well or get lucky in the playoffs (none of them melted down then, but Affeldt was the only one who really just seemed to become a different pitcher in really important situations) and they made Bochy look good. I don’t think it was a coincidence that Bochy’s magic in general and the Giants’ bullpen magic in particular suddenly ended when Affeldt retired.
He also walked 12.7% of batters and had a 1.40 WHIP in those same situations. Both good for 6th worst ever. Or 80th out of 85, since there aren’t many pitchers that qualify. He’s also bottom 10 for FIP. That’s a long way from incredibly good.
You have to consider the context in which he was typically used. He was typically brought in with runners in scoring position in a games which the score was tied or the Giants had a small lead. In such a situation he didn’t mind walking a batter but was very careful not to give up anything hit hard.
Which seemed to be a Righetti trademark (he was there that time, right?)
Yes, but Affeldt was the most extreme example of it.
I didn’t know this was an anti-WHIP blog… but it makes sense. I have long wondered why WHIP wasn’t listed up front – right along side K, BB, H, etc – like the rest of the world displays pitching stats. I don’t think there is a better pitching stat than WHIP – your top 5 are all Cy Young contenders. At one point it was a revolution – the idea that base-runners allowed was a much more useful metric than runs allowed changed the world. Everything beyond that is just attaching arbitrary weights to other stats and attempting to account for defense and park/league factors. In other words, I don’t think advanced metrics perform any better than WHIP. Maybe that’s why it is suppressed. The easiest way to create progress is to ignore what is already there I guess?
From FanGraphs’ own page on WHIP:
(https://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/whip/)
“…WHIP is more of a quick reference statistic rather than something you want to use for full-fledged analysis. If you want to measure base runners allowed using a rate stat, OBP against is a better choice because batters faced is a better denominator than innings. WHIP is also lacking in that it treats all times on base equally, equating a walk with a home run. A statistic like wOBA against is more useful in that regard.
While WHIP is no longer at the forefront of stat-head analysis, it’s easy to calcuate and corelates relative well with more accurate statistics. Think of WHIP as something like OPS. It’s a little rough around the edges but it will generally provide a fine starting point.”
The only thing that any stats provide is quick reference. Full-fledged analysis should be done on a player-by-player basis and there absolutely is not a way it should be done. I am in the camp that actually watching the player is the only way to complete the analysis. I think a lot of stat-heads don’t know baseball well enough to draw meaningful conclusions from actual baseball, which is where things get weird. If I have to take a stat, I’ll take WHIP. The “better” stats attempt to serve as more comprehensive, but they are not which is actually worse. I will just understand that I need to know the actual player and his skills. It is very common for someone to simply cite an advanced stat and think that the analysis is done. #WAR
I am one of those that has been using WHIP and OPS for 20 years and nothing has come along that has gotten my attention… in a positive way. I do get frustrated when people think that there is a single stat that means an awful lot. I created wOBA on my own, only to realize that it already existed – its OK, I didn’t have a name for it. I realize that it has a bit more value than OPS, but it doesn’t really change much. Guys that make a living on BB get penalized a bit, but that sticks out like a sore thumb in the standard stat line as well.
Also, thanks for the reply. I am aware of those points, but if I wasn’t, then that would have helped a lot.
Praise Affeldt, by all means. But workload matters, too.
— Affeldt in 4 postseasons logged 5.8% of his teams’ innings.
— Jansen in 5 postseasons has 8.4% of his teams’ innings.
— Mariano in 16 postseasons had 9.8% of his teams’ innings.
Had Affeldt worked Jansen’s share, he’d have 45.1 IP, not 31.1. At Mariano’s share, he’d have 53 IP.
— Affeldt averaged 2.9 outs/game, Jansen 3.5, Mariano 4.4.
— Affeldt averaged 3.4 batters/game, Jansen 4.6, Mariano 5.5.
Affeldt did have some longer stints. And you can’t do more than you’re asked, nor much better than he did in his chances. But we’re talking about guys used in much different ways.