Kershaw-deGrom to Rival Arrieta-Cole Matchup

In the National League Wild Card game, we witnessed two aces going head to head in Jake Arrieta and Gerrit Cole. Arrieta pitched just as brilliantly as he had during the regular season, throwing a shutout against the Pirates and advancing to the Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Gerrit Cole could not match the Cubs’ ace as the long ball plagued him, giving up as many home runs as Arrieta has in his last 156 innings. Cole had a fantastic season and possesses a very bright future, but he will no longer be a part of any matchup of aces the rest of this postseason. The rest of us can move on and look at the next one, as Dodgers’ ace and best pitcher in baseball for several years, Clayton Kershaw, is set to take on the Mets’ best pitcher and emerging star in Jacob deGrom.

The Kershaw-deGrom matchup lacks the urgency present in the Arrieta-Cole winner-take-all encounter, but strictly in terms of the pitching matchup, Game 1 of the NLDS between the Dodgers and Mets should rival the Pirates-Cubs Wild Card game.

Kershaw has topped all major-league pitchers in WAR for the third consecutive season after finishing second and third in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Kershaw was the first person to lead the majors in WAR for three straight seasons since Roger Clemens from 1990 to 1992. The last player to even lead the majors in back-to-back years was Johan Santana in 2005-2006. Steve Carlton (1980-83), Robin Roberts (1951-54), and Lefty Grove (1929-32) are the only others to lead the majors in WAR for three consecutive seasons over the last 100 years. While the Cardinals have gotten the better of Kershaw in recent postseasons, there is no reason to expect that to continue with a pitcher of Kershaw’s caliber.

Jacob deGrom is no Clayton Kershaw, but he is still an excellent pitcher. After a breakout 2014 that saw him post a 3.5 WAR in just 140.1 innings, deGrom received a decent bump in innings this season to 191 and ended up with a 2.54 ERA (69 ERA-) and 2.70 FIP (70 FIP-) along with a 5.2 WAR. The only other pitchers to post both ERA- and FIP- of 70 or below were Arrieta, Cole, Kershaw, and David Price. deGrom’s innings were limited in the second half (77.1) compared to the first half (113.2), but the lighter workload resulted in similarly great results. His FIP was essentially the same at around 2.70 while his strikeout rate increased from 25% to 30% with a less than one percent increase in walk rate to a still low 5.5% since the All-Star Break.

Ahead of the Arrieta-Cole matchup I looked at every one-game playoff and tiebreaker game, and found that Arrieta-Cole was the greatest pitching matchup out of less than 20 games. Including all winner-take-all games (more than 100 total games), the Arrieta-Cole matchup was still one of the very best. Using the same methodology (geometric mean of the two starters’ WAR), we can take a look at the Division Series matchups that have been announced to find the best matchups.

Best Division Series Pitching Matchups

Year	Event	Matchup	Player	WAR	Player	WAR	AVG WAR	GEOMEAN
2015	NLDS	Mets v Dodgers	Jacob deGrom	5.2	Clayton Kershaw	8.6	6.9	6.7
2015	NLDS	Mets v Dodgers	Noah Syndergaard	3.1	Zack Greinke	5.9	4.5	4.3
2015	NLDS	Cubs v Cardinals	Jon Lester	5.0	John Lackey	3.6	4.3	4.2
2015	ALDS	Rangers v Blue Jays	Yovani Gallardo	2.5	David Price	6.4	4.5	4.0
2015	ALDS	Astros v Royals	Colin McHugh	3.9	Yordano Ventura	2.7	3.3	3.2
2015	ALDS	Astros v Royals	Scott Kazmir	2.4	Johnny Cueto	4.1	3.3	3.1
2015	ALDS	Rangers v Blue Jays	Cole Hamels	4.2	Marcus Stroman	0.5	2.4	1.4

The Cole Hamels-Marcus Stroman matchup is obviously more intriguing than this methodology allows, but overall, we have a very good slate of games. The 6.7 geometric mean for Kershaw-deGrom is actually higher than any of the winner-take-all games I examined recently, but in some ways this should be expected. Most teams have ample time and opportunity to line up the Division Series matchups to put their aces in Game 1, although the recent addition of the Wild Card game does hamper that opportunity by design. The Dodgers-Mets series looks to have several very good pitching matchups, but in order to determine how it ranks among other playoff games, we have to go a bit further.

I went back through every playoff game over the last ten years plus the seven in the chart above to compare. From 2005 to 2015, we have well over 300 games, more than three times as many games as were compared to Arrieta-Cole. A scatter plot of all games with both pitchers’ WAR is in the graph below. (For purposes of creating a geometric mean, any non-postive WAR number was entered at .1 — looking at you, 2012 Barry Zito.)

In addition to Kershaw-deGrom, a few of the matchups are highlighted: the much-discussed Arrieta-Cole game, the epic Roy Halladay–Chris Carpenter duel that resulted in a 1-0 Cardinals win on their way to the World Series, as well as CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander, who went at each other twice in the 2011 ALDS. The Sabathia-Verlander matchup is the only time in the past ten years that two pitchers with a WAR above six faced off against each other in the playoffs. The much anticipated matchup between aces never really got off the ground, as a day-long rain delay knocked both pitchers out of the game after an inning and a half. The rematch occurred three days later in Game 3 of the series. Neither pitcher was sharp, however: Verlander allowed two runs in the first and Sabathia walked four of the first six batters he faced. Each pitcher gave up four runs, but Sabathia could not make it out of the sixth and Verlander struck out 11 hitters in eight innings as the Tigers won the game.

By geometric mean, yes, this Mets-Dodgers game is the best pitching matchup we have seen over the last 10 years. A list of the top games can be seen in the chart below.

Best Playoff Pitching Matchups 2005-2015

Year	Event	Matchup	Player	WAR	Player	WAR	Winner	AVG WAR	GEOMEAN
2015	NLDS	Mets v Dodgers	Jacob deGrom	5.2	Clayton Kershaw	8.6		6.9	6.7
2011	ALDS	Tigers v Yankees	Justin Verlander	6.4	CC Sabathia	6.4	Yankees	6.4	6.4
2011	ALDS	Yankees v Tigers	CC Sabathia	6.4	Justin Verlander	6.4	Tigers	6.4	6.4
2011	NLDS	Cardinals v Phillies	Chris Carpenter	4.8	Roy Halladay	8.3	Cardinals	6.6	6.3
2015	NLWC	Cubs v Pirates	Jake Arrieta	7.3	Gerrit Cole	5.4	Cubs	6.4	6.3
2009	World Series	Phillies v Yankees	Cliff Lee	6.3	CC Sabathia	5.9	Phillies	6.1	6.1
2014	NLDS	Cardinals v Dodgers	Adam Wainwright	4.8	Clayton Kershaw	7.7	Cardinals	6.3	6.1
2005	NLCS	Astros v Cardinals	Andy Pettitte	5.8	Chris Carpenter	6.3	Cardinals	6.1	6.0
2005	NLCS	Cardinals v Astros	Chris Carpenter	6.3	Andy Pettitte	5.8	Cardinals	6.1	6.0
2007	ALCS	Indians v Red Sox	CC Sabathia	6.4	Josh Beckett	5.7	Red Sox	6.1	6.0
2007	ALCS	Red Sox v Indians	Josh Beckett	5.7	CC Sabathia	6.4	Red Sox	6.1	6.0

Sabathia was also involved with the best World Series matchup on this list, as Cliff Lee out-aced him, pitching a complete game with just one unearned run. They did not face each other again that series, as Sabathia went in Game 4 while Lee pitched in the fifth contest. The two starts by Lee were the only games the Philadelphia Phillies won in that series.

Like Arrieta-Cole, Kershaw-deGrom will feature two of the best pitchers of the game who have been at their best this season. With any luck, their performance in the regular season will carry over for at least one more game.