Khris Davis Reveals His Secret

Back in March, Khris Davis described his power as his secret weapon. “Me being kind of small, no one looks at me and is like, ‘He’s got power,’” Davis told Brewers.com beat writer Adam McCalvy. “I do, but it’s kind of a secret.” Now that he has mashed eight homers in his first 93 big league plate appearances, it’s safe to say that his secret is out. He’s even stole the spotlight from the other Chris Davis, which is tough since the Orioles’ Davis is still humming right along. The question is, how much longer will the Brewers’ Davis get to keep sharing his secret weapon?

These days, it’s hard to sneak onto the major league radar, and maybe Brewers fans were well aware of Davis. After all, he entered this season hitting .294/.400/.513 across four minor league seasons, the last of which concluded with a very similar line in 140 plate appearances in Triple-A. Still, Davis has always had a poor defensive reputation, and that kept him from sniffing any prospect lists heading into this season. None of the major prospect outlets — Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Bullpen Banter, ESPN or here at FanGraphs even mentioned Davis in their top 10/15 prospect lists this spring. Along with the bad defense, he may have appeared a touch old for his leagues, and he also seemingly had no opportunity in a Brewers outfield with three set starters in Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki.

Davis actually made the opening day roster, but he only started two games in the first month and was optioned to the minors on May 2 in favor of utilityman Jeff Bianchi. He would come back up for a few days in July when Braun went on the bereavement list, and then for good when Braun landed on the restricted list. Still, even when he came back up for good on the 22nd, he wasn’t playing regularly. Milwaukee’s first choice for replacing Braun was Caleb Gindl, who also actually hit pretty well himself in his cup of coffee. But for some reason, when Aramis Ramirez was ready to come back, it was Gindl who was sent packing and not Davis. Perhaps Milwaukee wanted Davis’ right-handed bat on the bench, but from Braun’s last game to Aug. 13 (Gindl’s last game before being sent down) the breakdown of left-field starts was Gindl 16, Davis four and Logan Schafer three. The move seemed innocent enough, and Gindl was in fact recalled on Friday. But in that space of time — Aug. 13-23 — Davis may have just locked himself into a roster spot for good.

In that nine-game, 11-day span, Davis hit .467/.543/1.033. He swatted five homers in 30 at-bats, including two on the day Gindl returned, Friday, Aug. 23. One was off of Homer Bailey, and the two homers were the two biggest plays of the game for Milwaukee against a surging Cincy squad. His effort that night was one of just 109 hitter games this season with a WPA of >.500. It also was just the 370th time since 1916 that a player tallied a multi-homer game during one of the first 40 games of his career. Now, Davis is seemingly a fixture in the lineup. It’s the perfect result of what happens when opportunity meets talent.

Of course, it’s not likely that Davis will keep up such a robust performance for the remainder of the season, but he definitely has a mean power stroke. Since 2010, his 69 homers are tied for 70th among all minor leaguers (among a sample of more than 15,000), and that’s after time missed both this year (big league club) and last (injury). And whether or not he keeps up this pace in the majors, he’s already put himself in some select company. At 93 PA with 32 games to go, it’s unlikely that Davis will get to 250 PA for the season, so I ran a query for rookies who hit eight or more homers in 250 or fewer PA. The search yielded 124 players, though the four of them from this year — Wil Myers (236 PA), Derek Dietrich (233), Matt Adams (215) and Darin Ruf (172) — are all either good bets or locks to cross that 250 PA threshold, so we’ll call it 120 players. If Davis pops two more dingers, he’ll be one of just 49 on the list to do so. Looking at the results individually, we see a who’s-who of all-bat, no field mashers. Here’s the top five:

Player	HR	PA	Year	Age	WAR		HR	PA	WAR
Russell Branyan	16	220	2000	24	0.8		194	3,398	10.8
Jay Gibbons	15	246	2001	24	0.7		127	3,177	3.9
Chris Richard	14	239	2000	26	0.4		34	1,005	1.4
Rafael Palmeiro	14	244	1987	22	0.4		569	12,046	70.0
Sam Horn	14	177	1987	23	1.1		62	1,185	2.9

(Numbers on the left are for rookie season, numbers on the right career totals)

OK, so Palmeiro had defensive value in his day, but he still spent plenty of time at designated hitter. Also notable on this is Craig Wilson, Willie McCovey, Leon Wagner, Allen Craig, Mike Jacobs, Erubial Durazo, Richie Sexson, Phil Plantier, Tyler Moore, Kyle Blanks, Miguel Montero, Luke Scott, David Ross, Shane Spencer, Matt Stairs, and of course, Rob Deer (see the whole list at the bottom). You get the idea — these guys are whose bat carried them into battle. The 120 players averaged 24.98 years of age during their rookie season, so in his age-25 season Davis fits in swimmingly. The first five guys are sort of a microcosm of the whole list — the players here went on to get enough at-bats to say they had a legit shot at having a career. Most of them faded quickly and were done being a productive player (or a player at all) by their early 30’s. Some will hang on and have a pretty decent career, and a couple will have extraordinary careers. Given the fact that it took a few years more than Palmeiro or McCovey to reach the majors, I’ll go ahead and knock out the latter path right now.

The question of whether or not Davis ends up being a flash in the pan or continues to have success will likely have a lot to do with defense. With Braun and Gomez coming back in ’14 and beyond, and with Aoki having a ridiculously low $1.5 million club option, the Crew’s outfield is set for at least one more season. Davis will some action as a fourth outfielder, but Braun and Gomez both hit right-handed like he does, and for his career Aoki doesn’t really have a platoon split (101 wRC+ against lefties, 108 wRC+ against righties) so he’s not a candidate to be platooned. Juan Francisco on the other hand, is a perfect candidate to be platooned. For his career, he has a 115 wRC+ against righties but a miniscule 17 wRC+ against lefties. Since 2009, there have been 567 players to compile at least 100 PA against lefties, and only six players have a worse wRC+ than does Francisco against them. And while Francisco’s 101 PA vs. LHP is a small sample, at a certain point he’s not getting more opportunities against them for a good reason.

The problem is that Davis may not be equipped to handle either right field or first base. In that aforementioned interview, Milwaukee manager Ron Roenicke labeled Davis “a left fielder, period.” Perhaps Milwaukee will revisit that stance and send him to winter ball for more seasoning after the season, but if Davis can’t even appear acceptable at other positions, this two-week stretch might end up being the highlight of his career.

It’s passé to say that every organization has a “four corners” player in the minors who are capable of coming up and mashing. It may be true, but the opportunity rarely comes from those so-called AAAA players. The opportunity has come for Davis, and he has taken full advantage. Davis’ power is no longer a secret, but whether or not he is able to consistently display it past 2013 may come down to his defense.

Full list:

Rk	Player	HR	PA	Year	Age
1	Russell Branyan	16	220	2000	24
2	Jay Gibbons	15	246	2001	24
3	Chris Richard	14	239	2000	26
4	Rafael Palmeiro	14	244	1987	22
5	Sam Horn	14	177	1987	23
6	Bill Schroeder	14	226	1984	25
7	Craig Wilson	13	183	2001	24
8	Chito Martinez	13	228	1991	25
9	Hector Villanueva	13	214	1991	26
10	Jim Traber	13	240	1986	24
11	Willie McCovey (RoY-1st)	13	219	1959	21
12	Leon Wagner	13	241	1958	24
13	Brad Eldred	12	208	2005	24
14	Joe Crede	12	209	2002	24
15	Bubba Trammell	12	216	1998	26
16	Mike Diaz	12	233	1986	26
17	Roger Repoz	12	245	1965	24
18	Bobby Hofman	12	182	1953	27
19	Allen Craig	11	219	2011	26
20	Casper Wells	11	241	2011	26
21	Jake Fox	11	241	2009	26
22	Mike Jacobs	11	112	2005	24
23	Adam Hyzdu	11	179	2002	30
24	Andy Tracy	11	218	2000	26
25	Erubiel Durazo	11	185	1999	25
26	Angel Echevarria	11	211	1999	28
27	Richie Sexson	11	183	1998	23
28	Phil Plantier (RoY-8th)	11	175	1991	22
29	Mitch Webster	11	235	1985	26
30	Hal King	11	239	1970	26
31	George Alusik	11	230	1962	27
32	Wayne Belardi	11	180	1953	22
33	Tyler Moore	10	171	2012	25
34	Randy Ruiz	10	130	2009	31
35	Kyle Blanks	10	172	2009	22
36	Miguel Montero	10	244	2007	23
37	Elijah Dukes	10	220	2007	23
38	Luke Scott	10	249	2006	28
39	Marcus Thames	10	184	2004	27
40	David Ross	10	140	2003	26
41	Damon Minor	10	201	2002	28
42	Brian Buchanan	10	219	2001	27
43	Wes Helms	10	239	2001	25
44	Shane Spencer	10	73	1998	26
45	Matt Stairs	10	158	1996	28
46	Eric Davis	10	200	1984	22
47	Cliff Johnson	10	210	1974	26
48	Dusty Rhodes	10	201	1952	25
49	Erik Kratz	9	157	2012	32
50	Brett Lawrie	9	171	2011	21
51	Brandon Belt	9	209	2011	23
52	Mitch Moreland	9	173	2010	24
53	Carlos Quentin	9	191	2006	23
54	Edwin Encarnacion	9	234	2005	22
55	Jason Dubois	9	202	2005	26
56	Joe Borchard	9	222	2004	25
57	Bucky Jacobsen	9	176	2004	28
58	Alex Ramirez	9	240	2000	25
59	Raul Ibanez	9	227	1999	27
60	Freddy Garcia	9	193	1998	25
61	Bobby Hughes	9	237	1998	27
62	Todd Greene	9	131	1997	26
63	Carlos Delgado	9	159	1994	22
64	Rich Rowland	9	129	1994	30
65	Kevin Roberson	9	195	1993	25
66	Bob Geren	9	225	1989	27
67	Dan Pasqua	9	166	1985	23
68	John Russell	9	234	1985	24
69	Kirk Gibson	9	189	1980	23
70	Pat Bourque	9	217	1973	26
71	Rene Lachemann	9	235	1965	20
72	Dave Nicholson	9	202	1962	22
73	Joe Pignatano	9	163	1958	28
74	Dick Gray	9	221	1958	26
75	Ray Katt	9	227	1954	27
76	Ed Bailey	9	223	1954	23
77	Johnny Schulte	9	209	1927	30
78	Khris Davis	8	93	2013	25
79	Yasmani Grandal	8	226	2012	23
80	Jordany Valdespin	8	206	2012	24
81	Paul Goldschmidt	8	177	2011	23
82	Chris Heisey	8	226	2010	25
83	Kila Ka’aihue	8	206	2010	26
84	Drew Stubbs	8	196	2009	24
85	Joe Mather	8	147	2008	25
86	Jason Kubel	8	235	2006	24
87	Curtis Granderson	8	174	2005	24
88	Dallas McPherson	8	220	2005	24
89	Hee-Seop Choi	8	245	2003	24
90	Robby Hammock	8	216	2003	26
91	Laynce Nix	8	195	2003	22
92	Shawn Wooten	8	232	2001	28
93	Shane Spencer	8	226	1999	27
94	Geoff Blum	8	154	1999	26
95	Edgard Clemente	8	171	1999	23
96	Daryle Ward	8	161	1999	24
97	Bobby Estalella	8	182	1998	23
98	Yamil Benitez	8	204	1997	24
99	Fernando Tatis	8	241	1997	22
100	Tony Graffanino	8	221	1997	25
101	Ozzie Timmons	8	185	1995	24
102	Shane Andrews	8	241	1995	23
103	Ron Jones	8	129	1988	24
104	Jim Lindeman	8	227	1987	25
105	Darren Daulton	8	181	1986	24
106	Ivan Calderon	8	233	1985	23
107	Rob Deer	8	187	1985	24
108	Franklin Stubbs	8	245	1984	23
109	Joe Lefebvre	8	178	1980	24
110	Jack Pierce	8	194	1975	26
111	Craig Kusick	8	238	1974	25
112	Hal McRae	8	182	1970	24
113	Fred Whitfield	8	167	1962	24
114	Norm Sherry	8	154	1960	28
115	Earl Battey	8	198	1958	23
116	Jackie Jensen	8	188	1951	24
117	Joe Collins	8	238	1950	27
118	Aaron Robinson	8	183	1945	30
119	Tommy Henrich	8	241	1937	24
120	Pinky Hargrave	8	250	1925	29