Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/24/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello! I’ve taken a mini vacation to regain my sanity from going to baseball games but I’m also still doing some work so I guess I can never really escape these things.

Kiley McDaniel: On a brighter note!

Kiley McDaniel: Went long on the Carter Stewart Japan signing and broke it down into six big takeaways from the signing, which I think is being underrated for it’s long-term effects on the industry: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-scott-boras-got-carter-stewarts-groove…

Kiley McDaniel: Also went long once again on one topic: the international draft. Jeff Passan and Eric joined me to walk through all the parties involved, possible structure (trading of picks!!!), and motivations: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-mcdo…

Kiley McDaniel: A mock is coming next week. I would guess it will be on Tuesday and it will be different in format than the last one

Kiley McDaniel: Here is the previous one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

Kiley McDaniel: After the one on Tuesday, I think we’ll do another the morning of the draft and then one last one that’s names only just before the draft starts

Kiley McDaniel: To your questions:

Dominican Dandy: Will the baseball industry in the DR look more like PR if they implement a draft?

Kiley McDaniel: We go into this on the podcast, and there’s lots of timestamps so you can see what topic we’re on every few minutes, but I don’t think so. I think MLB is doing this to take verbal deals with 13-year-olds off the table. I know drafts are to control costs, but the costs are already controlled and capped, so that isn’t the primary motivation to go to a draft in this instance. And all parties are aware of the PR situation. I think the way that could happen is if they move the age to 18 and MLB mandates that every kid has to come through one of their academies and control the entire process. Don’t think they want to do that.

Nick: Every year, there’s talk of toolsy but raw athletic types in the draft with “huge” upside. What are some MLB examples of guys that have come close or reached that potential?

Kiley McDaniel: Matt Kemp comes to mind first. Cody Bellinger was a projection guy. Out of HS (he didn’t sign) Kris Bryant was another projection power type. Matt Chapman is a college version, where his college coaches taught the opposite of a pro approach but he was a 70 defender with an 80 arm and 65 raw power.

Rikki Tikki Tavi: Lots of talk about the Rangers going underslot at 8, and then overslot at 41 and/or 50.  Any indications about who they would be targeting with a later overslot deal?

Kiley McDaniel: Any team planning this needs 3-5 options because there’s multiple teams picking multiple times between your picks with more money than you have…so you can’t get locked into one guy.

Miley KcDaniel: Why am I not hearing more about Jake Sanford? Where do you see him going?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a 35+ on the board, so that’s pretty strong from unknown to being on a prospect list the day he signs. Above to plus runner underway, fits in a corner, big raw power, huge season, late-blooming Canadian that was at a midwestern Juco last year, Western Kentucky this year. Chance to sneak in the late 2nd round, but more 3rd-4th is the buzz.

Cash Money Brothers: Will the recent spate of TJSs for the Rangers high school pitchers result in them shifting their strategy this year, at least with their premium picks?

Kiley McDaniel: I have no idea, but I’ll be interested to see if they’re trigger shy on prep arms. I think I would be, but this seems to be more random bad luck because I couldn’t draft that many TJs if I tried…so I tend to think it’s predominantly bad luck.

D Back fan: Is Corbin Carroll slipping out of top 15?

Kiley McDaniel: Seems likely to get out of the top 10, then the DBacks could buy him to 16 if he doesn’t get there on merit

Mason Jarre: I’ll make this simple – does baseball have a ball problem? Watching highlights last night you could see balls pinging off flyball swings and just keep carrying for HRs.

Kiley McDaniel: You can count me in the camp that too many HR isn’t a problem

Lilith: Any news on where Vaughn might go?

Kiley McDaniel: Still leaning 5th but that’s not in stone

mamsk: O/U Austin Riley RoS wRC+: 110

Kiley McDaniel: I understand what this means but my parents would have no clue

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll lean over

Roy TO: Any changes on who the Blue Jays are most linked to? Are you still hearing Carroll?

Kiley McDaniel: Mostly college players

Darren: On the draft version of the Board, is Adley really the only top 100 prospect in the draft?  How close are Witt/Vaughn to being a 55?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope all the 50’s are on the top 135 or whatever it is now, we just shuffled them and didn’t re-slot them yet. The top 5-6 would be in a top 100

Roy TO: If Noah Song didn’t have the military requirement, would he be the best pitcher on the board?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s ranked on the draft board independent of military service, so no

Spider Puig: At this point, are there any top 6 teams that are looking at taking someone other than the top 6 hitters? What are the chances, in your opinion, that one of those 6 is available for the Reds at 7?

Kiley McDaniel: The top 6 seems locked in, in some order. Obviously all those clubs have a group of players they’re looking at, so SDP/6 has to consider players outside the group. I’d say maybe a 10% chance one sneaks to CIN/7, but it may be lower than that.

Kiley McDaniel: And I think CIN will take someone that you aren’t expecting as a result

Ben: Do you think Riley Greene will move up quickly throughout his minor league career? In general, when talking about HS prospects, if they are hit-tool first, do they typically get promoted quicker than other HS prospects? Thx

Kiley McDaniel: Generally speaking, yes. Greene’s closest comp is probably Alex Kirilloff, so it could be that quick.

Sheeple: Why isn’t George Kirby ranked higher? He’s having a historical season K-BB% wise

Kiley McDaniel: He’s also pitching at Elon and reports on the secondary stuff vary

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Is there anyone to look out for on the Cuban National team as they play exhibition games stateside this summer?

Kiley McDaniel: Not any huge ones, but I’m sure there’s so pro types. I will be there.

Alex: What becomes of Graeme Stinson? Does he just go back to school? Surely nobody will give him the money he was hoping for at this point.

Kiley McDaniel: Depends what his demands are and how much medical info he shares. Clubs I’ve spoken with are getting no info currently and it’s very unclear what the issue even is.

Dan: What did Jonathan India have that Brady McConnell doesn’t? Seems like they are both high performing SEC bats who are unlikely to stick at SS. However India went top 5 and McConnell may not even go 1st round

Kiley McDaniel: McConnell probably goes 2nd round, but I’m still lukewarm. He struck out a lot more than India and the eye test on his swing and approach isn’t close to the same. He’s faster and a bit better defender than India, but India is a superior hitter with more game power and probably a tick more raw.

Fangraphs reader: The Astros will presumably start Deury Carrasco, Freudis Nova, and Luis Santana all in Tri-city this year. Would that affect their interest in grabbing Greg Jones who you mentioned they had interest in the mock, or do you just figure out playing time if you draft him?

Kiley McDaniel: Too many good players continues to not be a problem

Dan: What is the point of a team drafting a high school kid in the late rounds? No kid is gonna turn down an SEC scholarship to sign for 10k. Wouldn’t it make more sense to draft a high performing small school guy who will actually sign and hope he maybe turns into something?

Kiley McDaniel: 1) sometimes teams have signed all the players they need, so they are just drafting guys they won’t sign. At that point, favors, kids on your scout team, a kid that would just be thrilled to be drafted, or a kid that might be a high pick in a few years is the sort of HS picks you see
2) you can pay a kid whatever you want at any pick, so it isn’t like a $10k cap on late picks
3) you have minor league rosters, so you can’t just draft/sign/roster an infinite amount of college performers

Robert: What’s the difference between Xavier Edwards and CJ Abrams as prospects? Obv CJ is much more the prototype height wise, but is the speed/hit/d/power/arm profile pretty much the same except for CJ maybe projecting for avg pop? Would Edwards be drafted higher in hindsight?

Kiley McDaniel: Mentioned this a few weeks ago. There’s a lot of cross-year comps you can make. I’ve stumped a few guys this week on Kody Hoese vs. Jonathan India. They aren’t that different but one went 5th and one will go in the 20’s. Edwards/Abrams is another one, though Abrams is taller, has more raw power and a better chance to play SS, so he is a superior prospect.

MM: Hi Kiley!  I asked Jay, he said he didn’t know, suggested I ask a prospect hound.   Have you heard any news about Joe McCarthy, Rays?  Back injury in spring training was supposed to be minor, but he hasn’t played yet.  Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t heard, but he was supposed to be a top 2 round pick out of UVA that slipped due to back problems

Edwards: What are the most common reasons a prospect doesn’t live up to their potential?

Kiley McDaniel: can’t hit, gets hurt, loses athleticism

Kiley McDaniel: like 80-90% of busts is primarily one of those

draft wiz: The Angels have trackman data on Keone Cavaco since he played fall ball in their stadium. Does that make you more confident in the pick if you saw them take him vs another team?

Kiley McDaniel: Possibly? He’s already their type of prospect, so maybe this helps a bit.

Taylor: I see that Quinn Priester is now the top high school arm on THE BOARD. Could you please explain what he has done to be ranked over Matthew Allen? Thank you!

Kiley McDaniel: It’s two different types: in terms of future/potential grades, Allan has two 65-grade pitches and 45 command, Priester has 55-60’s across the board with 50 or better command. Most teams/we lean to the Priester type

mark: Any updates to the scouting reports on the draft board otw?

Kiley McDaniel: that’s coming next

Walewander: What’s A.J. Puk’s recovery looking like?

Kiley McDaniel: Eric tweeted about it this week, I believe

Carter: Arkansas resident here. Please tell us how you feel about our favorite large adult son, Heston Kjerstad.

Kiley McDaniel: Fun prospect with a big swing and power. A little too wild with the approach but his walkup music is Pony and he has a huge leg kick so I’m in

PatEdMartin: How close were you to physically assaulting the Vandy whistler?

Kiley McDaniel: I can kinda tune them out now

John: WHats the first slot where we could be looking at an underslot pick?

Kiley McDaniel: 1-1 will always be underslot

Chris: Do any teams have Abrams over Witt?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m not certain any do, but I think at least a few do

Dallas: You missed a huge part of the Carter Stewart story.  Matt Skrmetta is a neighbor of the Stewart family and a US based scout for Softbank.  He started this last summer when Stewart did not sign; he went around Boras to get the deal done; Boras would not have signed the deal now he would have waited for more leverage to keep him in States but the family and Softbank went around him (to a point; Boras definitely finished the deal and probably got much more money than original offer).  This was initiated by Softbank not Boras.

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think much of that is accurate, but I was aware of the neighbor angle

Ffl igd: What’s the word on Jordan Brewer? B10 player of the year, hitting for average and some good power, but haven’t seen much talk on draft stock or tools despite being a Junior. Just ranked like 141 on BOARD with no tool grades or blurb.

Kiley McDaniel: Big tools, could sneak in late 2nd or 3rd

Rodney: My 100-lb dog often stops on the walk home, refusing to move, leaving me both stalled on the sidewalk and somewhat emasculated. Does Scout ever do this? What happens next?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, she’s always chasing something

Sean: Thoughts on Davis Wendzel?

Kiley McDaniel: average-ish across the board and 22 on draft day, so that kinda neuters the loud stats

Highest Upside? : Which of these guys do you think has the highest upside? Jasson Dominguez, Marco Luciano, or Aeley Rutschman

Kiley McDaniel: If Rutschman can have 4 60+ tools at catcher, it’s him, but Dominguez isn’t that far behind

Kevin : How would you ranks these prep short stops, Anthony Volpe, Nasim Nunez, Kyren Paris and Gunner Henderson?

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&so…

mark: What do you mean that Chapman was taught the opposite of a pro approach?

Kiley McDaniel: west coast small ball: lots of liners/grounders, opposite field, too many bunts, etc.

Jason N: What different skill set does a GM need to evaluate amateur talent vs major league talent?  Some GMs (like AJ Preller) seem to do one well while failing at the other.

Kiley McDaniel: Was talking to someone about this recently. The list of GM’s who either excel at both or delegate well enough that their clubs excel at both is really short

House Divided: I’ve seen you take questions about UCLA’s draft eligible guys this year, but beyond Mitchell/McClain, who are some UCLA underclassmen that are looking likely to be draftable at this point? And is Mitchell looking like a first rounder still?

Kiley McDaniel: questions like these are well suited for the 2019, 2020 and 2021 draft boards: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&so…

Matt: If Vaughn is the guy to slip to 6, do the Padres take him?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m not sure they do

Dees: Where is Luiz Gohara?

Kiley McDaniel: My favorite childrens book

Brandon: Is Kyren Paris still receiving first round buzz or is he likely to fall to the comp/second round?

Kiley McDaniel: 1st

uWu: are their any clubs currently regarded as behind the times with respect to analytics

Kiley McDaniel: yes

Kirle MacDarnls: porsepcts

Jon: Has anyone ever seen Carson Cistulli and Pete Buttigieg in the same room?

Thumb: If you were a gardener grading future plants, I think the main tools would be Height and Flower, and that’s it. Those map kinda nicely onto Hit and Power, which makes me think that plants are basically DH-only. Enjoy your weekend, I guess.

Datt Mamon: https://funnyjunk.com/channel/animal/Otters+that+look+like+matt+damon/…

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: That’s all for this week, have a good long weekend, all