Kiley McDaniel Chat – 1/30/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello friends and also other people, it is time for us to chat

Kiley McDaniel: ICYMI, we posted an Orioles list and tomorrow we’ll be posting the Yankees list, but I’m taking a quick break from writing reports to chat with you people. Here’s the prospects index page with anything you may need from us: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

Tommy N.: Mejia, Morejon, Renfroe too much for Realmuto if he doesn’t want an extension?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think Realmuto is being traded with an understanding he’ll sign an extension with the new team. I get the impression this is a 2-year rental and then he hits the market and maybe he likes his two years with you enough to give you a slight discount when everyone is bidding.

Kiley McDaniel: And that package isn’t insane, I’m not sure SD wants to pay that much and I don’t have a sense for if the market has cratered enough that you have to pay as much as we thought some teams may at the beginning of the offseason

Jeremy: How do you evaluate Yusei Kikuchi against other guys in his (likely) 55 FV bracket, like Chris Paddack, Brent Honeywell or Mitch Keller? Clearly higher ceiling and lower floor, but would that change his FV as well?

Kiley McDaniel: Not really. There’s some though that Kikuchi may have already peaked and there’s some long-term durability concerns. And those other three are all essentially 2019 MLB types with a little more control for a lot less money and more upside, but their own concerns as well (Paddack/Honeywell have already had TJ). They don’t feel drastically different in value, like any of them could be the clear leader with a loud 2019.

Jonathan: Is it time for Braves fans to panic about stingy ownership? They’re set to open with a significantly lower payroll from a year ago, and their in arguably the most improved division of the 2019 offseason (especially if Harper, Machado or both sign within the division).

Kiley McDaniel: Haha you must not have read last week’s chat. You can all calm down, that money will be spent, they’re just being deliberate and seems like the’re leaning towards seeing exactly what all these AAA/MLB level prospects are before they go make a huge move. Which, to be fair, may be the exact same thing I would do.

hans: Nate Pearson: what is his ceiling? i get that he throws hard and thats cool, but to me he seems like a huge injury risk with no track record. any new takes?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s the cautious take and I think reasonably close to where we stand until we get more info. These types usually end up fitting best in relief, so we’re eager to see if he can go post 15+ starts of healthy baseball with more starter traits. Stuff will play anywhere, so not like we don’t think he’s good, we just don’t know in what role.

hans: I read some hot take that george valera has a 70 hit tool with 50 power. is that true?

Kiley McDaniel: Eh I wouldn’t project that right now, but he’s a top 200 type with essentially no pro experience b/c that’s on the table. The swing and tools aren’t terribly different than Kyle Tucker, but obviously Tucker already has MLB time and Valera has played 6 pro games.

hans: can you guyss make THE BOARD more accesible? where is it

Kiley McDaniel: go to the LEADERS heading and then it’s a couple lines down from there. I mean it could be more obvious in terms of like bigger font or being its own heading, but that’s above my paygrade. It works great, tho! Dolinar has done a great job steadily adding features and we have more columns scheduled to be added when all 30 lists are done.

Mr. Met: In your Met’s rankings you mentioned if everything came together for Shervyn Newton it would mean superstardom. What are the odds that happens? is it more than say 25%?

Kiley McDaniel: Funny you mention that. We have some percentage odds based information on the prospect side that will be coming as part of #prospectsweek

Kiley McDaniel: I’d say it’s closer to 10%, just eyeballing it

Tony Schiavone: Welcome to the greatest chat in the history of our great sport!

Kiley McDaniel: love your enthusiasm

Warbiscuit: Are you gonna visit any SEC school this season for the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Oh yeah, now than I’m in ATL there’s lots of nearby school I’ll probably be going to multiple times. GT, UGA, Kennesaw and Ga State are the closest. SC and Clemson aren’t a bad drive, Auburn/Alabama/UAB are also in that range and Tenn/Vandy aren’t bad either. I’ll be in NC for the NHSI tourney and will go to Duke games at the Durham Bulls Park and will surely make at least one Florida swing and likely to to UF and maybe USF/UCF depending on matchups.

Adam: At what point does Nick Senzel’s injury issues become a serious concern for his long term outlook?

Kiley McDaniel: If this season is like last season, then probably? Last year was mostly freak stuff and the first time it’s been an issue, so I’m not really concerned at all right now

Noah: When is UMP coming back?

Kiley McDaniel: It will be back as a companion for #prospectsweek and going forward. We needed some time off to focus on rankings and some trips and the holidays, so that was the thing that gave rather than doing lists slower

Andy: Does Rusney Castillo  have any trade value?

Kiley McDaniel: Very negative, has been for years

Frank Menechino : Matt Chapman: over/under 6 fWAR in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel: way under. I’d set it closer to 4.something to get 50/50 action. lots of UZR in that 6.5 season and it can be fickle

Luis Patino: Am I nothing more than a future reliever?

Kiley McDaniel: We’re much higher than that, put you in the middle of the top 100 late last year

Mike: Would you say that William Contreras‘ swing is not well optimized for power?

Kiley McDaniel: Right this second it isn’t, but we were told it was a slowly-building-up sort of approach, so it will be changing.

Stare into the Voit: The Orioles list didn’t make me cry. Am I losing my sense of feeling? Or is there actual hope?

Kiley McDaniel: There is! Some interesting guys and they will be in asset collection mode now, with some HOU guys that were pretty good at that in the past.

Danny: It might be too early for this but any buzz on 2018 IFA signings (i.e. now 17 year old is throwing harder or has better feel for hitting/pitching than when scouted a year ago)?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t have all the names handy, but it’ll be easy to look at stuff like this when all 30 lists are done and compare current grades to amateur grades. Eduardo Garcia with MIL is one that comes to mind.

Mr. Fister: Is Malcom Nunez a legit prospect or just a guy who raked in the Domincan Summer League? Seems like a big body for a 17 year old.

Kiley McDaniel: We’re probably the low guys on him, sounds like early-peaking, mature body corner guy with some feel to hit. Could still be a legit guy later, but the signs aren’t pointing to that right now.

Finnegan: Right now is Adley Rutschman the consensus best prospect in the draft, or are other names like Bobby Witt Andrew Vaughn, Riley Greene popping up more often?

Kiley McDaniel: We will be unveiling the new draft rankings also as part of #prospectsweek but the rankings we currently have up aren’t super off, just a dozen or so names moved around, so the top 10 or so is the same names as this: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

Keefths: I am looking for the answer to life.

Kiley McDaniel: All i know is the answer needs to be in the form of a question

Turd Ferguson: What are your thoughts on Caleb Ferguson? He’s not on the BIG BOARD. Is he a 45 guy with a chance of being a back end starter or do you see a higher/lower ceiling there?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, he graduated, I think we’d probably call it a 45, which is a setup guy, yes

Tommyboy: What grades were being placed on Zebron’s pitches and command?

Kiley McDaniel: Average to slightly above

Mr. Fister: Who is your bet for young international prospect most likely to go all Wander Franco and make a huge leap up the board? Kristian Robinson? Marco Luciano?

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t predict a Franco or Soto level jump from anyone, but the Luciano buzz is strong right now

Mr. Fister: Is Blaze Jordan athletic, or just a big kid mashing homers?

Kiley McDaniel: More big kid mashing homers, but we have him on the 2021 board for a reason, he’s really good at that.

Franswag : Should we be concerned about Ian Anderson’s crazy low breaking ball spin rates? Virtually no one has had success with a breaking ball with spin rates as low as his. Could this cause him to develop into more of a fastball/change guy? Or perhaps he develops a new pitch.

Kiley McDaniel: Seems like scouts are higher on him than analysts, but there’s lots of ways to succeed as a pitcher. I mean, you’d like to have ideal TrackMan stuff on all your pitches and also have a bunch of intangible feel for sequencing and location and reading hitters, but in reality most prospects can only hope to have one and Anderson has lots of the intangible stuff

j: ETA for the Yankees’ prospect list?

Kiley McDaniel: Looking like tomorrow, but Friday if not then

Chase: I’ve seen a few places rank Spencer Howard as high the 50th best spec in all of baseball. I know he was given a 50FV, does he have a chance as a #2 or #3?

Kiley McDaniel: Late-season the stuff jumped and the command was a little worse. So first half 2019 will give us a better sense of how those two may mesh. There’s some chance for #2 but it’s low right now until we learn more.

Josh : Do you really see McNeil as a possible productive outfielder for NY? What’s the point of getting Broxton in all of those trades ?

Kiley McDaniel: Some other clubs have asked that same question. It seems like Lowrie may get the Jeff McNeil AB’s and some other clubs think McNeil could be Whit Merrifield…so if he isn’t going to be played much I think someone gets him from NYM.

Go Twins: When is prospects week?

Kiley McDaniel: Feb 11-15

Camden Warehouse: You have Lowther listed after Akin in the write-up but have him making his MLB Debut sooner, why is this?

Kiley McDaniel: Akin could very well debut in 2019 as well, but as a guy who has had to watch his weight, has a higher upside and has a couple more adjustments to make, it felt like he’d come up a little later than Lowther

Ethan: Does Vidal Brujan have more than 10 HR upside?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep. I mean everyone with plus bat speed and bat control has 15 HR upside these days, maybe even 20 in his best year

Bob: First pick in the keeper/dynasty league. Do you take Kiriloff or Franco?

Kiley McDaniel: Franco

Heathcliff Slocumb: Why are there so many people in our damn city right now and why do they keep referring to it as Hotlanta?

Kiley McDaniel: especially when it’s so cold /dad joke

chet: i am wrong to be a little wary about whitley? the list of 6’7 pitchers who stay healthy is pretty short. i mean, most pitchers get hurt. but it seems like the really tall ones have shorter careers

Kiley McDaniel: I mean if you’re looking for something, yeah I guess that’s a thing.

Oklahomabrave: “That money will be spent” does that mean it will be spent just perhaps not this season?

Kiley McDaniel: Or even at the deadline if things are going better than expected and there’s 1-2 holes to fill and contracts are on the trade market. Also, the whole league is being kinda stingy right now, presumably in part for CBA leverage, so almost every fan base is mad about stuff like this. braves’ fans outrage+ should only be like 105 right now and I feel like it’s 150

Cartoons Plural : I just saw an article mention a Rays pitching prospect named Riley O’Brien. Who is he and should people keep an eye on him?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe we wrote that article? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-54-prospects-tampa-bay-rays/

Yusei Tomato: How does Riley Greene compare to top high school bats of the last couple years?  Is he as advanced as Kelenic was as a prep?

Kiley McDaniel: Kelenic is a CF and Greene is a RF. The common comp for Greene is Alex Kirilloff, both are above hit/power, chance for plus at both and fine in RF.

Mountie Votto: Does India + Barnhart + lower lotto ticket get it done for JTR?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think it will

SophieTrad: Apologies if this is a silly, well-covered question: what proportion of your prospect rankings/grades/writeups are based on info given to you by sources, as opposed to your own view of a player? I assume it varies by how easy it is to get eyes on a prospect but just in general is there a usual split?

Kiley McDaniel: It varies player to player. Sometimes a guy was an amateur that we saw 5-6 times and he hasn’t played pro yet and almost every other scout on Earth has seen him less than us, so we can lean on our looks at that point and maybe just double check we didn’t miss something big. For most other guys, we’ll have a handful of looks over the guys full career, so it would be silly to weigh our stuff over hundreds of other games we didn’t see

Kiley McDaniel: Sorta like the split of scouting vs stats info percentage input in a report. At Triple-A it’s maybe 60% performance and in rookie ball it’s like 10% performance, broadly speaking

Kiley McDaniel: That is to say not a hitters’ Triple-A strikeout rate dictates the hit tool grade, but if scouts say they love the swing and he’s always striking out at every level, we need more info to give the hit tool a grade based on the scouting info. In Rookie ball, that isn’t hard to do.

Cartoons Plural : Eloy or Wander? Better peak? Better career?

Kiley McDaniel: They’ll both be in our top 10, maybe both in the top 5. I’m leaning Wander Franco right now.

Midwest US: It is too gd cold outside.

Vidal Brujan: When is my ETA? Also, do you think I could end up in centerfield or will I stay on second?

Kiley McDaniel: You’re above at 2B and apparently could play a decent SS if asked. Given TB’s inclinations, I would say 2020

Eldon: Any report on Juco pitcher Jackson Rutledge?

Kiley McDaniel: Rising, probably late 1st/comp right now. One scout said it was Nate Pearson-ish. Best Juco guy by a lot at this point. He’s an Arkansas transfer to San Jacinto JC in Texas and had his first start last week. mid-90’s, up to 98, flashing plus SL and CB, some chance to start.

El Zilcho: What FV would you put on Logan Gilbert if he shows he’s consistently back in the mid 90’s?

Kiley McDaniel: 50 FV, maybe eventually 55 FV if he can do it and perform for a couple pro seasons.

Danny: He’ll likely be on your Yankees list but what are chances Osiel Rodriguez is top 3 Yankees pitching prospect by the end of the year?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s not that far from being 3rd right now, for us. But he’ll be in short season, so probably like 33%?

Yanks Fan: How far does Antonio Cabello have to go to make the 50 FV tier for you guys?

Kiley McDaniel: The list is obviously coming soon but he’s jumped a ton and probably higher than you’d think we’d put him

Rusney Castillo: Why is my trade value very negative? Is it because I make so much money?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Matt: Brujan’s write-up seems really great, what’s holding him back from being above 55 FV?

Kiley McDaniel: Well 55 means we expect him to be an annual 2.5-3.0 WAR type and that’s a top 10 2B. And it’s expecting, so there’s obvious upside for more since he hasn’t gotten out of A-Ball yet. He was like 250-300th prospect overall in baseball entering the year, so that’s a huge jump. The physical ability to hit for power (15-20 HR max and probably the lower end of that) is the limiting factor, but even with that, if he goes bonkers in AA this year, he’s probably a 60

Kiley McDaniel: Using Madrigal/Urias/Albies as recent examples of this skillset

Kevin: I cannot pretend to have read you at the time, but i remember a time when Nola was drafted and traveling through the minors, as a high floor, likely 2/3 pitcher. He has reached his peak and is an ace. Is Casey Mize a similar profile in terms of journey?

Kiley McDaniel: Not super different, I think we mentioned Nola as a high end outcome for Mize at some point in the pre-draft coverage.

Big Cheese: ETA for Blue Jays list? Think they are a Top 5 system? or are they more like Top 10/Top Half?

Kiley McDaniel: Next week

Sam B: I noticed that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected for around 5 WAR despite having no MLB experience. What is the highest pre-season projection for a player with no MLB experience?

Kiley McDaniel: And the fans are almost a full WAR lower than steamer. Don’t think I’ve ever seen that before

Keefths: Who is Luciano dude ?

Kiley McDaniel: Marco Luciano, the top 16-year-old talent (for us) in the 2018 J2 class, Giants signed him. Hasn’t played a pro game but has looked great in their recent hitting camp. More info here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-international?sort=…

babyshark: doodoodoodoo

Polar Vortex: POLAR. VORTEX.

Kiley McDaniel: looks like we’re in range

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: That will be all for today, gonna go wrap up my Yankees capsules