Kiley McDaniel Chat – 3/14/18

Kiley McDaniel: Okay I’m here now, sorry for the delay!

Kiley McDaniel: Had an errand run too late then a dog demanding some cleanup

Rick C: I haven’t seen much progress from Folty over the last couple years.  I suppose right now he could be seen as a #4/5 starter, but do you think it might be best at this point to move him to the bullpen?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s kinda the question with Folty. He’s either 8th/9th inning guy or 4th starter as currently constituted. If he can unlock everything, then it’s more of a 3rd starter, maybe a 2. Kinda depends on the patience of the team when/if you move him to the pen. Braves may have less patience as he gets more expensive and younger arms could pass him

Jim: What are your thoughts on Jose Soriano?

Kiley McDaniel: Intriguing lottery ticket arm, chance to start, shows some above average pitches and feel. Could take off, could just be a guy that only shows glimpses. We’ll see!

LAG: Thoughts on Taylor Guerrieri? I liked the move for the Jays. Is there still upside in him?

Kiley McDaniel: If he’s healthy, has always been good. Some thought he’d be better than that and he probably won’t be. Offspeed better than the sinker, for me.

Blue Jay Matt: Vlad Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette are obviously going to the Hall of Fame but how good will Logan Warmoth be?

Kiley McDaniel: Obvi HOF

Grand Barn Door: What do you think about Brent Rooker? Crushed high A last year and sounds like the Twins are high on him. Starts in AA with a chance at a post ASB call up if he performs?

Kiley McDaniel: Like him, always kinda worried about how much contact he’d make since I think he’s always gotten to the power. Especially given age, he’ll have to mash and he has. The best reasonable scenario is that, yes.

Joe: I’ve seen the job title video scout for several teams recently. What does a video scout do? Scout videos recorded by others or are they the ones recording the video? If they aren’t the ones recording the video, who is recording the videos for the international video scouts?

Kiley McDaniel: I think it’s a little different for every team and that title man include a couple different roles. Could be the guy setting up the camera at the game or could be the guy in the office that breaks down the video from a scouting perspective that the other guy takes. I think some people do both roles.

Bun B: Alec Bohm has virtually half of his HR output in 1/5 the games so far this season…is he going to find himself on some teams T10 if they need that 3B bat?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s moving up. Probably 10-15 right now, but can’t rule that out.

FuzzyBuckets: Why isn’t the rolling contract a more common thing in Baseball? 1 year guarantee, with mutual option for next year on a perpetual basis? Perhaps with options tied to performance? Generate 3+WAR? no team option. Generate <2WAR? no player option. Seems like short-term contracts are the best deal for players (high-AAV) and teams (low-risk). (See – Beltran / Ortiz)

Kiley McDaniel: Can’t make incentives based on performance. That’s why there aren’t HR incentives, it’s always PA or IP or games finished. Also, the player could negotiate that deal in many cases. Agents will say well I could get you an extra year. If you’re getting a one year deal with a renew option of some sort every year, then what is the agent really doing

Rob: Think Gore will be or has chance to be top sp prospect by yr end?

Kiley McDaniel: Possible

Big Jim: Any chance Madrigal or Swaggerty make it to Toronto at pick 12? If not, who’s the next best college bat available?

Kiley McDaniel: Madrigal probably not, Swaggerty slightly higher odds also probably not

Kiley McDaniel: Next best is up for debate. Probably Bohm, but cases to be made for Jenista, Larnach, Conine, Eierman. I think I’d have them in that order, from like 11-25 overall roughly.

Bernie: How much upside do you think Sheldon Neuse has?

Kiley McDaniel: Eventually being the subject of the TV show “The Other Young Sheldon”

Matt: More of Carson’s guy:  but did you see Astudillo’s pick-off?

Kiley McDaniel: This was v dope

Guest: Thoughts on the Marlins farm system? Outside of Brinson, do you see much upside currently?

Kiley McDaniel: Mostly the guys they acquired in the last six months are too much upside and not enough certainty, tbh. Of the holdovers, not a ton of upside.

Bernie: Which 1b prospect do you like best: Bobby Bradley, Evan White or Brent Rooker?

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

Kiley McDaniel: This is the answer to many unpublished chat questions, as well

GRUMPY TURNER: How would you rank these lower level hitters in terms of upside:

3B Oneil Cruz
OF Drew Waters
C Connor Wong
SS Anderson Tejeda
OF Wadye Ynfante

Kiley McDaniel: 2, 1, 3, 4, 5

GRUMPY TURNER: And sweet summer child, how would you rank (in your preternatural wisdom), these lower level arms:

SP Jose Soriano
SP Tobias Myers
SP Edward Cabrera
SP Freddy Tarnok
SP Caden Lemons

Kiley McDaniel: Probably that order

Cornelius: What is Lucius Fox’s ceiling in terms of his offensive upside? Is Ozzie Albies a reasonable comp for ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope! Albies is 6 months older, far more offensive potential and has succeeded multiple levels higher. With Fox, You’re hoping for 50-55 hit and 40-45 power with speed.

Happy: Toss up! Grapefruit league or Cactus league?

Kiley McDaniel: Cactus. Less driving, less humidity

goms: Should the Mariners consider changing their outlook to 2018 considering their rapidly increasing number of injured players? Either tank or sign a free agent (ALEX COBB, PLEASE!)

Kiley McDaniel: Um, have you seen what Jerry’s been doing? They went for 2017, they’re going for 2018, then they’re gonna go for 2019

shortyduwwop: Trevor Larnach; how real is the power he’s showing and how does his defense in the outfield project? Is his early season performance moving him into the teens on your rankings?

Kiley McDaniel: Fringy to average in RF. ~65 raw, hasn’t lifted the ball a ton in the past and still can do it more but the ball explodes so some liners are getting out. Probably 15-22 right now, or so.

Mark: Do you think Nick Senzel has a chance to stick at SS in Cincinnati? Any reports on how he’s looked this spring?

Kiley McDaniel: Well he can stick if they don’t mind having a fringy defender for a couple years until he’s below average

Gregg: Please compare Brady Singer to pre-draft Aaron Nola.

Kiley McDaniel: Peak Singer compares favorably, maybe a little less stuff, depends on the day. Current Singer is well behind.

Kramer: On the player development side, how heavily are organizations using analytics in comparison to the scouting side?

Kiley McDaniel: As much? Maybe more? Probably about the same.

shortyduwwop: How had Connor Scott looked so far this spring? He seems to have better run and throw tools than former teammate, Kyle Tucker, but how do his hit and power tools compare?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him yesterday. He’s not getting past pick 15. It’s Kyle Tucker with 70 speed and maybe a little less power. And he’s 90-93 on the mound. I’ll post a video on twitter after we’re done here. The teams that were heavy at that game were all in the top 15.

Nick: This is probably a dumb question but with Bellingers speed why are the Dodgers saying they will keep him at first?  He seemed to play decently in the OF without much experience.

Kiley McDaniel: He’s really good defensively there. If Kris Bryant was a 70 defender at 1B and a 50 at 3B and the Cubs had no 1B and a good 3B, they’d probably do the same thing.

Eck: Hi, I watched Liberatore video by Eric and felt that he has different arm action (after his release) from pitch to pitch. Am I wrong or is it usual for high school pitchers?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t watched the video but that isn’t super unusual. Usually it’s with below average command guys, which Liberatore isn’t really.

Andy: It’s  March.  I get it.  But Wainwright is bringing the heat (90-92) again…. He’s not an ace, but is he being overlooked after the Achilles disaster?

Kiley McDaniel: Is he better than Luke Weaver, Alex Reyes and Jack Flaherty? I don’t think he makes it through the year in the rotation.

Joe: Do front offices rely on some type of WAR stat, even if it’s more sophisticated than what is publicly available?

Kiley McDaniel: Generally speaking, yes.

Zonk: The best places in the country to scout minor league talent are FLA and AZ I assume…..but where else?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of minor league teams in the Carolinas

Geebs: I would trade 1000 of you for one of either Dave Cameron or Eno Sarris

Kiley McDaniel: I have some questions about how you obtained 1000 of me

Kelton: What’s the outlook like for Dylan Moore? Had a rough year in ’17 but had raked at every level before that.

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-atlanta-braves-2/

Hinkie: If you did a top three mock for June’s rule 4 draft, what would it look like ?   1. Tigers ________, 2. Giants _________, 3. Phillies ________

Kiley McDaniel: Dylan, Dylan, Jahlil Okafor

tb.25: The chat hasn’t started? I don’t know what to do with my life…

Kiley McDaniel: You’re welcome

Post Malone: Back to back prospect chats is too much.

Kiley McDaniel: Post Malone is hot garbage

Craig: Can you post a picture of your dog?

Kiley McDaniel: Here’s a thread of dog stuff

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

she MAY need a bath

12 Mar 2018

Joseph: Kiley I recently read your MLB draft rankings for the current and future draft classes. My question is does 2019 LHP Hunter Barco have the best chance to go 1/1 next year if healthy?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Billy Beane: Reports out of Orlando are that Scout is really looking sluggish out there. You hearing anything different?

Kiley McDaniel: She’s having some difficulties today after eating an entire bag of treats when the dog sitter wasn’t looking yesterday

Joe: When do the July 2 ranking s come out?

Kiley McDaniel: A couple weeks before they sign? Don’t have a date yet

Dan: Austin Beck appears to be one of he more polarizing prospects out there. How did you assess him leading up to the draft and how do you project him now? Thanks for the great work.

Kiley McDaniel: Super risky, high upside. Big question on the hit tool

John: Michael Toglia: top 10 pick?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe, he’s in the mix early

Dave in London: Is Jake Bauer’s contact skill as good as some scouts say? Thoughts on his near-term and long-term prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: He can hit, deceptively good in RF, can also play 1B, power has developed but only really hit for power in games for one year, so needs to repeat it

HugoZ: Is there any practical reason for having Acuna on the opening day roster?

Kiley McDaniel: Not that I can see

Mike: Biggest 2018 MLB draft riser and faller in your opinion?

Kiley McDaniel: Carter Stewart and Brady Singer

Paul: Any recent buzz that would cause you to make changes to the 2018 draft top 10 ranks?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah lots of it

Paul: Is Austin Riley the Braves future 3B?

Kiley McDaniel: I thought so a couple years ago, still do

Quinn: I’m impressed by Swaggerty, how much of a reach is he for the Giants at #2?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s a reach right now but not super duper crazy

Larry: I went to the UF-FSU game last night. Drew Mendoza can really hit, but that guy is a disaster in the field. I know we’re a long while away from the 2019 draft, but is Mendoza a 1b only?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t seen him in college, but he was a projected 3B in HS and there wasn’t much question about that

Hello Hi Hello: As a Tigers fan I would really like us to take a position player with first overall, but as a Tigers fan I’m not expecting it. Is it too early to hear rumors on which way the front office is leaning?

Kiley McDaniel: Generally yes, but I’ve heard a couple things I’ll share soon enough

Mike: In your latest Braves prospect rankings you had Cumberland in front of Jackson and Contreras – what do you see in him that you don’t in the other two?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean there’s already 10,000 words in the article do I have to type them all here? Cumby has best combo of hit/power and polis https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-atlanta-braves-2/

Larry: I’ve seen other sites quote scouts that say Drew Waters can’t hit “at all.” Any concern on your part about the hit tool?

Kiley McDaniel: I haven’t seen that, so I’m dubious. But, in general, pro scouts that are first seeing a HS draftee the summer after they sign are hilariously wrong often and way too opinionated. They have no context or history and enjoy too much telling amateur scouts that they’re smarter than they are after seeing a couple games.

Larry: Lucius Fox is from Batman, not baseball. Thx

Kiley McDaniel: My b

IMW: How do you (and others) actually FEEL when you find you’ve gotten a comp or project totally right on a player. Conversely what about when you realize you were way off? Do you take it personally, shrug and move on, something in between? Try to analyze the why?

Kiley McDaniel: I imagine that’s what heroin feels like

Babe Truth: How do you evaluate a high school players hit tool when seeing them on such a small sample size ?

Kiley McDaniel: First, try to make it a bigger sample size. If you can’t, don’t be super sure of yourself and seek context.

Nick: Do you have a 2018 draft crush?

Kiley McDaniel: No one in this draft class can top your mom

Pablo: You and Eric had Nick Williams as a 45PV/50FV in prospect week this year in the graduated prospect report. Are the concerns mostly about his defense or do you think he’ll just be an average bat at best too?

Kiley McDaniel: Defensive instincts aren’t great, pitch selection has never been good, makeup has always been an issue. Just a minefield of potential issues keeping him from his upside.

Bravesy McBravesface: Is Casey Mize in the top 5 consideration now?  Does throwing a no-no against a mid-major school really boost his stock that much?  It’s an impressive feat, but does it seems like it’s an overreaction to jump him up the board because of it.

Kiley McDaniel: Well I mean no scout is moving him up because of his stats in a game vs. Northeastern, so that’s a pretty weak argument. He’s in the top 10 right now, but there’s still questions about durability he needs to answer.

Mike sixel: It’s rather have both Kiley and Eno, rather than one or the other….

Kiley McDaniel: lemme know if you find out how to make 1000 of me tho

Todd: What’s your FV on Jake Cave? Will he strike out too much to be a valuable COF?

Kiley McDaniel: 40 FV, but basically ready and sneaky power

Geebs: The fact that every week you not only post my insult but respond I find endearing and I hate you for that

Kiley McDaniel: SAME

Billy Beane: Geebs is very rude. I would only trade two or 3 of you for Eno, probably would need SD to eat Dave’s contract to give you up for him 1 for 1.

Kiley McDaniel: I am also interested in obtaining 2-3 of me. Is cloning easier than I have been led to believe?

Bort: I wish I could be as happy as your dog.

Kiley McDaniel: don’t we all wish we could get schwifty, crap on the floor and still get pets minutes later

A Low-Key Cat Person: Why do girls like dogs so much?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t know, but Scout has a 140% approval rating with females

Joe: Guys you might like more then the industry in the Brewers system?

Kiley McDaniel: Tristen Lutz appears to be the guy

Charles Finley: Jay-Z famously rapped on Watch the Throne “I invented swag.”  How concerned should we be that Travis Swaggerty might be of the Hov lineage?

Kiley McDaniel: OMG WILL HE BRING HIP HOP VALUES TO BASEBALL

MikeB: What reports are you getting on Jonathan India? He seems to be hitting pretty well, what round do you see him being drafted in?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him last week. 55 raw, can play 3B, body has improved this year, hitting alright. Maybe 3rd-4th?

Post Malone: I don’t understand why you take the time to respond to some questions just to say you won’t answer them rather than ignore them and answer ones that you could spend time answering.

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not surprising that a lyricist of your esteem can’t seem to follow a baseball chat

Hap: Would it be a reach for the White Sox to draft Nick Madrigal with the 4th pick?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think so. Don’t think he’s their type of guy, though.

Matt Klentak: How did you know I wanted to draft Jahlil Okafor? Whos the snitch? Kapler? Reuben?

Kiley McDaniel: Hey we’re all out here just trying to trust the process, man

Jonathan: Best drunk chat anecdote?

Kiley McDaniel: Wait am I drunk or are the chatters drunk?

CJL: Will be in PHX for spring training this weekend- any recs for breweries/restaurants?

Kiley McDaniel: Kodo Sushi Sake in North Scottsdale is sneaky good. Barrio Queen for Cistulli’s fav Sangria/tacos. Bianco’s let me down a bit the last few times I was there.

Gary: How has Brice Turang looked so far this spring? Has he been hitting?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s been fine, not blowing anyone away

E: Nick
1:03 Do you have a 2018 draft crush?
Kiley McDaniel
1:04 No one in this draft class can top your mom

Someone should check on Nick

Kiley McDaniel: he spontaneously combusted he’s fine

Carson Cistulli Sabathia: Luken Baker big. Luken Baker hit ball hard. Ball go far. Luken Baker good?

Kiley McDaniel: Like comp round to 2nd, probably. Tarzan sorta one dimensional

Bravesy McBravesface: After seeing them in person, which was more impressive, Mason Denaburg or Carter Stewart?

Kiley McDaniel: Stewart

Mark: Cloning humans is not easy, and could have unintended consequences. The proof is found in the film Multiplicity, starring Michael Keaton.

Kiley McDaniel: GREAT FILM

Bun B: they’re happy creatures! girls like happy

Bun B: and cuddly, don’t forget cuddly

Kiley McDaniel: While I appreesh your rhymes, this seems reductive. Also probably kinda true? I also like those things but I have a girl’s name sooooo

Paul: Can you share the buzz that would cause you to change the top 10, or are you just being short to annoy people?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s kinda an article length deal, premium content ya know? This is kinda short responses, keep it moving sort of thing. Singer/Hankins down, Liberatore/Madrigal/McClanahan/Rolison/Mize/Swaggerty/Scott/Stewart/Denaburg up

Mike: When will you start hearing about teams being linked to certain players? Have you heard of any links so far?

Kiley McDaniel: I take notes on which scouts are at every game I go to, I hear from Eric with him, scouts from other games who was there. You can start putting things together around now

LAD: Is snark a prerequisite for baseball bloggers or do most guys despise chatting with readers?  Or is every one biting KLaws swag?

Kiley McDaniel: Man, if you could see the questions we don’t publish you’d understand

Kiley McDaniel: Also super dry content regurgitation is boring and you guys don’t set up conventional punch lines

Alan: When do we get our first stupid early mock draft?  I love those.

Kiley McDaniel: There isn’t a set plan, but we will be stupid sooner than you expect

LAD: Outkast or UGK?

Kiley McDaniel: Outkast

Bun B: Bun B appreciates you appreciating his rhymes

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe a little less now

Josh: Andrew Vaughn from Cal, is he setting himself up for 1-1 in 2019 Draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t see the loud tools for a R/R 1B to do that, but the performance is certainly good. I’ve seen him a good bit and never been blown away but I know he’s hit a ton when I haven’t seen him.

Dave: Andrew Vaughn or Michael Toglia?

Kiley McDaniel: I prefer Toglia

MATT BOYD: MATT. BOYD.

Noah: Greyson. Jenista.

Kiley McDaniel: I think we’re getting there

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: Which scientific advancement comes first, a genetically engineered sentient species, or a true computer AI?

HugoZ: Is there any practical reason for having

Matt: I still don’t know what to do with my life

Kiley McSpaniel: Would you please pet my belly?

Kiley McDaniel: Almost…

butts69: Human Teeth Parade

Kiley McDaniel: There it is

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty I’ll see you guys next week