Kiley McDaniel Chat – 3/21/18

Kiley McDaniel: As I mentioned in other places, have a flight today, so moved things up a bit in the day to accomodate

Tommy N.: Could Madrigal possibly move to the outfield in the future if he had to?

Kiley McDaniel: He could probably catch too, but I can’t imagine why he wouldn’t play 2B or SS.

Ronnie: Hi Kiley, what do you see Willie Calhoun’s hitting ceiling looking like? Is .300/.400/.500 too high for his ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe not quite that much, but he’s one of the rare guys with a chance to do that. I would almost bet he does the .300 and .500 at least once in his career in the same year. .400 is much tougher for him with that bat control

Tigers Fan: If you are the GM of the Tigers, with the abundance of pitching prospects that they have up top, would you still take the BPA (like McClanahan or Mize) or go play the bonuses by drafting a hitter (Madrigal)?

Kiley McDaniel: Gotta take who you think is the best guy at 1-1. If you think it’s a tie, then get into bonus, time horizon, positional stuff, etc. At this point, there isn’t a consensus, so it could be a year where the team picking 1-1 thinks its a tie. I would lean hitter for the base rate advantages but that’s probably baked into a tie for most teams.

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: How do you think Franklin Perez’s injury affects him going forward?

Kiley McDaniel: Doesn’t sound serious, just a minor setback

FH: What am I not seeing with Nolan Gorman? He looks like he’ll be a chunky 1B type that will strikeout a lot.

Kiley McDaniel: One of the opinions that’s getting louder the last few weeks is his body has backed up, scouts are seeing more of a 1B long-term and he’s having some trouble with spin. Very hard to rank him right now. After NHSI the whole scouting community (and me!) will get a long look at him and we’ll have some sort of consensus.

Will: More bullish on Josh Lowe or Nolan Jones for this year?

Kiley McDaniel: I prefer Lowe but they aren’t that far apart

Dan410: Do you think Will Benson eventually puts it all together? Or is the hit tool just too much of a wildcard at this point to project him?

Kiley McDaniel: If you’re expecting him to have Heyward’s career (which was the upside at draft time), I’ll take the under on that. If you want to know if he’ll be a big leaguer that hits for power, I think that will happen. The issue is if he’s a Russ Branyan tons of K’s part time guy or a guy with a 20-25% K rate that makes it work and becomes an everyday guy

Vinny: Better chance of turning it around, Rutherford or Moniak?

Kiley McDaniel: Have been higher on Moniak the whole time and there’s more margin for error with speed/defense, so I’ll lean there

TradeDeadline: Dynasty rookie draft, I have two years before I have to keep or cut – since only offense matters, who do I want: Willie Calhoun, Nick Senzel or Bo Bichette?

Kiley McDaniel: Bichette clear 3rd for me since he’s farther away. I’d lean Senzel since I’m guessing defense doesn’t matter but position does and they’re both right there.

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: What happened with Anibal Sierra? How can a player who commanded over $1 million go to being virtually a non-prospect so quickly?

Kiley McDaniel: Happens a lot more than you’d think, especially in the Cuban market

TradeDeadline: Is Gohara ready or will big league righties kill him?

Kiley McDaniel: I think he’s ready. CH is a 50 often enough and he locates the SL well enough that it works against RH when the CH is below.

Tim: Is De Sedas still a guy who can sign out of his high school despite his stock dropping, or is it more likely he heads to college at this point?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him take BP a few days ago but got rained out, so I’ll see him in a couple weeks when I get back home. Probably 15-25 right now, has gotten bigger (in a good way) but now SS is a question. 50/55 raw from both sides and good all fields swing. Not enormous sexy upside but obviously 50-55 across the board can end up a 60 FV sometimes.

Dean: How does Will Banfield’s defense compare to MJ Melendez’s?

Kiley McDaniel: Melendez is above to plus, Banfield is more average

Sir Mookleton McBetts III: it seems the consensus  on Willy Adames is that he will hit for power… eventually. Is this just a matter of filling out physically?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s been filled out for some time. The power is there, more 15-20 HR upside, so he’s almost doing that.

Richard: How much power is actually in Albies’s bat? Can he be a 20+ HR guy?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d say more 15-20 upside, but he may choose to be more contact oriented and hit 10-12. Or he could go nuts and try to hit .260 with 25. He can kinda do whatever he wants.

Rick C: Would Soroka be the best pitcher in the Braves rotation were he to be promoted right now?

Kiley McDaniel: Eh, I mean I’d probably still lean Teheran if you made me start a guy for one game. Newcomb and Folty are trending right and McCarthy is a 3/4 when he’s healthy, so probably not…but for a guy with no service time he’s surprisingly close to being the best.

Mac: how much of a difference in terms of FV can makeup and other intangibles make for you grading a prospect between perfect in this category and just short of criminal and major legal issues?

Kiley McDaniel: Usually a grade up or down, like 40 to 45

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: Is there some under-exploited talent pool that you would put more emphasis on if you were charged with building a farm system?

Kiley McDaniel: 5 DSL teams, sign tons of $10K players, use Trackman to help sort them out. It’s insane that no team has tried this when everyone is below the luxury tax and swimming in BAM money. If I interviewed all 30 GMs right now and asked this, they would all admit it was a good idea and I can’t understand why no one is doing it. The math works out and some dept heads I know are arguing for it.

Still hoping: Thoughts on Glasnow?  Chances he gets it together and becomes a top half of the rotation starter?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d hope for more Andrew Miller outcome where he takes awhile then figures it out in a bullpen role and is good enough you don’t try to start him.

J: Is Florida’s pitching development program significantly ahead of their hitting development? I ask because I can’t remember the last UF hitter to go in the 1st rd but they have a great staff every year?

Kiley McDaniel: Their recruiting strategy dictates this. Big toolsy bats get paid out of high school, but if a talented P has a big number or velo dips some or is at a rural school, etc. they can get to campus and often do (pitcher attrition and all that). They can grab gutsy guys and Juco performer bats and have frontline arms and they’ve obviously proven they can get those guys on campus

Tyler: Is Kelenic a top 10 lock if he was from the south and had the same production and track record?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think so, he’s been seen a ton the last two summers and he’s seen in the middle of the first round right now

J: Reading your tweet about Acton last night-he seems to have some traits the Giants like. Are they considering him for their 2nd/3rd round pick or are teams still primarily focusing on lining up who they want in the 1st?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s generally seen as a college guy but some team could fall in love and try him in the 3rd-5th if the money is right

Vegan Man!: ETA for Ke’Bryan Hayes? Chances he can turn into a 20-25 HR bat? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of questions like this on Top 100 guys. Almost everything you’re looking for is here, or at the links at the top of this page: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

Z: With the *possibly* changing landscape to pitch usage at the major league level, has there been any discussion about the way certain amateur players are evaluated? I’m thinking leaning more towards players that might not have a great fastball but can really spin a breaker (maybe Alex Lange?).

Kiley McDaniel: Been talking to scouts about this recently. I think it’s happening, you’re seeing HS power arms that are athletic with stuff but have a head whack or bad command with good Trackman stuff and teams are just taking them now, where they rarely did in the past. I think Zack Burdi is gonna shove when he gets back from TJ and he should’ve gone higher. Lange and Brendon Little fit that description too. We’ve written about how Madrigal fits the Betts/Altuve/Albies mold of sneaky power…it’s happening as GMs and analytics staffs have more say in draft decisions

Luzinski’s Sweaty Gooch: How did Ronald Acuna only get signed for ~100k when he had to be a sick athlete even then with a dad who played in the minors?

Kiley McDaniel: It happens a lot. Just talked to a scout about this yesterday, but normally when a huge prospect signs after July 2nd (so he’s out on the market for awhile for every team), he will show some new tools or velo or physical development…and the first team to see this won’t let him leave the academy. The kid is happy to sign but may not know he could get 2x the bonus if he waited a month and shopped around. Many top 100 guys have this basic story. Many GMs are mad they don’t have amateur reports on these guys, but they go from basically unsignable to real prospect so quickly and quietly you can’t see them all.

Blorg: Have any spring training updates on any prospects? Any 3rd pitches or velo upticks you’re excited about?

Kiley McDaniel: Just got a bonkers report on Luis Medina. He may be a 50 FV now (but we’ll wait until in-season to adjust it). Also got a new name that will be on the Yankees list (which is basically done) that I had literally never heard until today. He just got to America this week, so many Yankees people don’t really know much about him.

Joey Lucchesi: Will my deception work at the MLB level and allow my stuff to play up?

Kiley McDaniel: I think so. Loved your work at the Starkville regional. Big fan.

Joe: Top Sleeper in the Brewers System?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s not a sleeper per se, but we’re clearly the high guys on Tristen Lutz. He’s gonna blow up.

Rio: Did you see Albies 2 homers? Amazing

Bork: Wednesday? 11 am? What is this black magic tomfoolery?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s your black magic

KB: Who would you pick as dark horses for both leagues ROY?

Kiley McDaniel: Miguel Andujar in the AL. Brinson or Kingery in the NL. Acuna/Ohtani the obvious favorites.

Kiley McDaniel: I also wouldn’t rule out Kyle Tucker if he somehow gets a path to regular ABs

Vegan Man!: What is the main culprit of Florial’s high k%? Pitch recognition, aggressive approach? Given his decent BB%, it seems like he has a decent grasp of the strike zone? Thank you!

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a late-count, flyball oriented guy with a steep plane. He’s not bad picking out pitches and he has tools to hit, but his approach is basically to hit it hard and deep. Don’t think it’s ever more than 50 hit/.260 with this approach but that’s enough with everything else he has.

Sandy Ravage: If Riley Pint can cut his BB/9 to even just 3, could you see him being a top 100 prospect again next year?

Kiley McDaniel: We had him at #75 this year and I saw him last year and it was electric stuff and shrug emoji command https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

Ron Swanson’s Mustache: Is Travis Swaggerty a fit for Atlanta at 8?  Would that be too much of a reach?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s some thought Swaggerty doesn’t get out of the top 5 now. I’ll see him this weekend.

Ryan E. : More likely to stick at catcher – William Contreras or MJ Melendez?

Kiley McDaniel: They both will but Melendez is probably a little better

Adam: How does the relationship between a player and the scout who “signed” them progress once the player goes pro? Does the scout still play an active role in their life or is it on to the next draft class?

Kiley McDaniel: Almost always stay in touch the whole career

Mike: Will the Tigers and other teams at the top get good medical info on Mize, McClanahan and others pre-draft? Or is there still a chance for another Brady Aiken situation?

Kiley McDaniel: They usually do, but one adviser (you’ll never guess who!) is normally very tough to deal with on these things. Some agents just don’t deal with it until after the deal is struck, but post Aiken maybe more want to avoid a fiasco like that.

Willie: I know the Gators well but who should I look for on the Razorbacks in their series this weekend?

Kiley McDaniel: Arkansas is loaded with underclassmen

Kiley McDaniel: Fr RHPs Bonnin and Rutledge are mid 90’s and heard Rutledge has been up to 98. Fr OFs Kjerstad and Turney are real prospects, Kjerstad more average tools, Turney with easy plus raw but hitability issues. Zebulon Vermillion has an 80 name

Kiley McDaniel: Campbell, Knight are both draft guys for this year on the mound, Koch a bat for this year, all top 5 round types

Kiley McDaniel: Cronin and Fletcher both solid guys for 2019

Kiley McDaniel: Deep roster, very talented

AugustineMLB: Is the Acuna move strictly a service time decision or a ‘not quite ready yet’ move?

Kiley McDaniel: If he’s up in 11 days, did he really improve that much?

Adam: Wait, Kyler Murray is playing baseball again? What sort of outlook does he have from a prospect perspective?

Kiley McDaniel: Lacking reps obviously but big tools, some talk he’s starting to put it together

Mike: Seems like the Tigers’ draft history suggests Madrigal isn’t the type of player they normally target. Would you say that’s accurate? Or is that kind of stuff overrated in projecting this far out?

Kiley McDaniel: I think that’s generally accurate with a team that so clearly has a type like Detroit does, same basic decision making group has been together for awhile.

Jim: Long term upside: Welker or Vilade?

Kiley McDaniel: Vilade

Mark: More upside as a hitter, Kingery or Hiura?

Kiley McDaniel: Hiura

Paul: What’s up with Griffin Conine? Should I be concerned about his swing? Is his stock down?

Kiley McDaniel: Contact rate hasn’t been great, slipping a bit, still hits the snot out of the ball. Probably more timing/bad stretch than a fatal flaw. He’s a FB/lift the ball guy so this happens sometimes.

Dave: Rank the following: Andrew Vaughn, Michael Toglia, Chase Strumpf, Ryan Kriedler, Logan Davidson

Kiley McDaniel: All in the top 30-45 for 2019 and no one is paying close attention to them. Probably Toglia on top but don’t have super strong opinions right now beyond the top 10-12 for next year.

Joe: Time to give up on Gilbert Lara? Speaking of $3mil international signings….

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not going well and some were very skeptical before he signed.

Brian: Do you think Madrigal is available for the Mets at #6 and if so do you think their familiarity with Oregon based college players (Conforto, Peterson) would play a role in drafting him?

Kiley McDaniel: Could be a fit and don’t think that makes a difference

Sandra: Have you ever seen Brandon woodruff in person? Can he contribute in the big leagues this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes x2

Luke: Greyson Jenista or Travis Swaggerty? Why? Are both top 10 picks?

Kiley McDaniel: Swaggerty is well in the top 10 right now, Jenista probably 15-20. Some are saying there’s Benintendi-like qualities to Swaggerty. That wasn’t the case this summer, but he’s made some adjustments

Manu: Is it to crazy to think Soroka will be the Braves #5 starter after April 12?

Kiley McDaniel: I think Gohara/Fried probably get shots first but Soroka shouldn’t be far behind

SF: Is touki tousaint gonna be a starter or what Bro

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

Kiley McDaniel: I think he will for some stretch, but may be more of a Lance McCullers type swing piece with dirty stuff BRAH

Ed: Do you think Nolan Gorman lasts to 7 this year? I haven’t read too many reports on draft prospects other than Mize recently.

Kiley McDaniel: Right now he might. After next weekend in Cary, there will be much more clarity on this. Literally like 150 scouts will watch him play 4 games against premium pitching.

Ron Swanson’s Mustache: What is Kyle Wright’s ETA?

Kiley McDaniel: Sometime this year, I think

Sam: Who is the new Yankees prospect!

Kiley McDaniel: Played last year in the DSL as his first pro season. Hitter. That’s your hints

Kileysaurus: You mentioned the idea of having 5 DSL teams and filling them with low bonus intl guys. What is the minimum amount of talent production that you would need from this for the strategy to be profitable/beneficial, and what do you think would be the average yearly added talent production form this?

Kiley McDaniel: Cost is under $1M per year per team, including bonuses. So 5 teams for 5 years is something like $21 million, as a long-term strategy. One top 100 prospect is worth about $21 million. There are teams that, in a 5-year period, with only 1 DSL team, have produced multiple top 100 prospects for negligible bonuses. There is a proof of concept already for multiple orgs.

Joe: Think Corey Ray rebounds?

Kiley McDaniel: I do, but I’ve always had him as a low-end regular with a chance for more or a chance for very good 4th OF. Still think that’s fair. Huge tools.

Kileysaurus: Do you think there is any real solution to service time manipulation? Or is all the MLBPA can do just groan at the owners and say “C’mon guys, don’t be like that”

Kiley McDaniel: Until the MLBPA pushes to change the incentives for the teams, they will keep doing this to guys like Bryant and Acuna, will say it’s for real reasons so they don’t get sued, and there’s nothing MLBPA can do b/c they got effing smoked in the last CBA, so it’s only their fault. Can’t blame the teams for acting in their self interest.

Kiley McDaniel: Having a former player without any real experience negotiating a CBA where he doesn’t get any real economic goals met but instead focuses on players getting their own row on spring training buses…like c’mon guys what did you think would happen when he goes head to head with a bunch of savvy billionaires? Get a pro in there instead of a guy that looks good in a suit and says he understands you, b/c neither of those things matter for a CBA.

Friedman: More upside with the bat: Vilade, Lutz or DJ Peters?

Kiley McDaniel: gimme all the Lutz stock you have

Carson Cistulli Sabathia: Which syllable do you emphasize in Madrigal’s name?

Kiley McDaniel: First

Jason : I was surprised by the future 55 hit tool for Soto in the top 100 (I expected a higher grade). What are his weaknesses as a hitter!

Kiley McDaniel: Really limited track record and only at lower levels. Hard to hang a 60 on a guy until he performs some. Chance it’s in there, though.

Wilson Korte: Is Ryan Rolison a high floor moderate ceiling prospect?  Sturdy build with solid 3 pitch mix and command but not elite velocity.

Kiley McDaniel: into the mid 90s, sitting 92-94 so not that bad! but yes, otherwise.

RHall: Am I remembering correctly that you and Eric both love Vidal Brujan?  Can you give us the short and sweet as to why?

Kiley McDaniel: Contact and defense

Sam: Everson Pereira?

Kiley McDaniel: Lol he’s not a name I’d never heard until today and he hasn’t played a pro game yet

Pigpen: Can someone with say, a 50 grade curve, flash an 80 grade curve for one pitch if everything just clicks right? Or is it not that simple?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe 60, out of the zone. But 10 points is about the max.

Pigpen: Where would Julio Pablo Martinez slide in on the Rangers list?

Kiley McDaniel: 45 FV with high variance

Ty: If you had done a Braves list after 2015 where would you have ranked Acuna?  Would you have been high man like on Albies the year before?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Lt. Kaffee: If you gave an order that Santiago wasn’t to be touched, and your orders are always followed, then why would Santiago be in danger? Why would it be necessary to transfer him off the base?

Tim: AKIL BADDOO

Wish Bone: I miss my Uncle Charles y’all………

Blue Jay Matt: Is cold fusion a realistic goal for our society’s future energy needs?

Rickey Henderson: Rickey wants to know why the Athletic so expensive?

Blue Jay Matt: If there was no chance of being caught, would you kill a random human for $10,000?

Kiley McDaniel: Oh boy we’re almost there

Jimmy: Is it true you’re a socialist?

Corky Ramirez: Is it natural for a red-blooded American male to feel movement downstairs during a Kevin Kiermaier close-up?

Kiley McDaniel: I think that’s a good place to end

Kiley McDaniel: See you guys next week and thanks for adjusting your schedules with mine!