Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/2/18

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here! Just got to south GA as a stopover for Scout to see some family and play in the woods.

Kiley McDaniel: Plan is to see Kumar Rocker vs. Cole Wilcox then Anthony Seigler tomorrow, Ryan Rolison at South Carolina Friday, Cole Sands/FSU at Clemson Saturday, Joey Bart at GT Sunday, Ryan Weathers Monday, Travis Swaggerty at Auburn Tuesday then hopefully Parker Meadows playoff game Wednesday on the way home. Full week!

Kiley McDaniel: All subject to change, but that sounds like a pretty good run even with some adjustments

Kiley McDaniel: We’ll have a new mock draft next week around this time, probably just 10 picks but a different order than the last one

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll have the Twins list coming soon, the draft board will be a part of THE BOARD and an update to minor league portion of THE BOARD is also in the works

Kiley McDaniel: Along with video/reports on the players I’m seeing so yeah Eric and I have a lot going on right now

Kiley McDaniel: To your questions!

Mike: In the past, you’ve mentioned Alec Bohm and Nick Madrigal as the two most likely targets for the Phillies at 1-3.  Has Joey Bart entered the mix for that pick ?

Kiley McDaniel: Have not heard that specifically, but he is in play for 2/SF and 5/CIN and 6/NYM so that wouldn’t be shocking. Still hearing Bohm is the preference for 3/PHI and they had some heat in this weekend to see him at UCF (I was there) after they had some heat at Singer/Mize on Thursday

Tommy N.: Have you heard anything on Tatis Jr. lately?

Kiley McDaniel: Scuffling a bit but no one is worried yet

Randy: I remain somewhat underwhelmed by Casey Mize at 1-1. Have you heard any encouraging comps?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s a little odd, and we’ll go into more detail on this in various media. Three + pitches and above average control is pretty generically top 3-5 picks for college arms, but I can’t think of one where he’s mostly splitter and cutter, almost pitching backwards at times, similar to some of the Japanese pro pitchers we’ve seen come over. And there is some effort to the release, but it doesn’t affect the command/control much. So, yeah, it is unusual but Mize is also very good.

JT: 30 MINUTES BUT I WANT IT NOW

Kiley McDaniel: Not a good look for the Man of the Woods but i appreesh the intensity

bob cobb: Are the tools listed position adjusted? Ie 50 hit for a 1B isn’t the same as 50 hit for SS, or is it the same and we adjust total grade up based on position?

Kiley McDaniel: Hit grades are the same across position–scaled to league average batting average–but defensive grades are relative to position.

Kevin: Besides age what is the big difference between max schrock and Luis urias?  They both look like hit, obp guys but one is ranked so much higher than the other.

Kiley McDaniel: Urias is looser and twitchier with elite bat control along with better pop and pitch selection along with slightly better arm/defense where he can be an emergency SS and Schrock can’t really. Urias is also 3 years younger at the same level

Cruze: Is Juan Soto the next prospect to ascend to the Vlad/Acuna tier?

Kiley McDaniel: Not quite that level of tools, but could turn into 60 bat/power and 50 D in RF. Short track record so waiting to see a bit more, but there’s top 10-15 overall prospects (60-65 FV) that are that type of player.

Brandon: Could you envision a scenario where a team exceeds its June draft signing bonus allotment by more than 5%? (and thus forfeiting future draft picks)

Kiley McDaniel: It would have to be a super specific instance where a team goes $10 million over with lots of overslot HS guys that it thinks are slightly mispriced and they also really like and also slide a bit and they think they won’t have high/many picks the next year…and also lots of balls on the part of the GM. So, seems reeeaaallly unlikely but every year or two there’s a team in a position to consider it.

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think anyone will actually do it in this CBA, though.

Andrew Friedman: Do you think Will Banfield would be a good pick if he slides to 30?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like a 30-60 fit. Scouts are hesitant about prep catchers in general and Banfield has had a half dozen different swings, so there’s some concern on the feel for hitting/contact/ability to get to the power. But it’s 55 raw, 55-60 D and arm, so there’s reward if the gamble pays off.

Ziggy: Francis Martes had 8 BB this past outing and now has over 8 BB/9 on the season. How does a player with once reportedly above average control fall of this much in this area? Is he damaged goods at this point or any hope he can regain some of his former prospect status?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard his velo has been down this year as well, so is someone to monitor closely

Len: Were you able to confirm what you posted about Wentz’s velocity going up?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard it from 3-4 sources and opted to see Wichita State sunday instead of him, but should get in to see Wentz in the next few weeks to see how different it is. I’ve been told he was working 92-94 mph his first few outings.

Kyler: What did you think about Soroka last night? Breaking stuff wasn’t great but it seemed like he commanded his fastball well. Overall I thought he was good, and I’m pumped for this guy to be in the rotation for years to come.

Kiley McDaniel: He’s really good. Mentioned on twitter that I’ve seen all three pitches flash plus, but never in the same game and he had something to clean up with his landing that it looks like he’s cleaned up this year. Command and mental approach has always been above. There’s a path where he continues improving, everything is plus and he’s an ace or close to it, but I tend to bet on the median and our projection was all 55’s, more of a solid #3/60 FV/3 win guy that might be a 4 win guy once or twice…which is still really, really good.

bob cobb: you had previously discussed (back in your first tenure) using something similar to derivative pricing models to try and value and assess prospects. Has this gained any sort of traction in front offices or in the public sphere?

Kiley McDaniel: I made one when I worked for a previous team, so it isn’t rocket science. Perception is that most front offices have a sense of the value of WAR/prospects/dollars but not a formal system with a specific number

Dave: Kiley, love your chats.  How would you compare Jonathan India to Nick Senzel (when he was coming out of college) both as a prospect and where he ended up going in the draft?  Can India make it to the top 5?

Kiley McDaniel: Senzel was a 55 runner that could play a passable 2B and decent SS whereas India is more of an average runner that’s a 50 at 3B and is emergency at the middle spots. Senzel has comparable raw power, but tapped into it more since he has a better bat and approach. Sorta similar, but the looseness/feel for the game/slight tools bump for the earlier Urias/Schrock example is in play, to a lesser degree. We have India as a bag of 50’s that fits on talent 15-20 but may go 10-15 for a numbers/floor oriented club

Dave: Kiley, How good is Joey Bart’s bat and do you see him as a potential middle of the order bat?

Kiley McDaniel: Even scouts that like him say it’s a 45 bat, 60 raw, probably 55 game power. So you’re expecting a 100 wRC+ with 55ish defense. More 45 bat due to the power/lift approach than a lack of feel to hit.

Gigi: I’m getting irrationally excited about Peter Alonso, given that he’s an bat-only right-handed 1bman with a lead glove and no speed. I know his defense is godawful, but is the bat for real? His current slash line (.400 / .500 /.788, 8 homers) is absurd. Help me understand how excited I actually should be?! What’s his realistic ceiling at this point?

Kiley McDaniel: Could be 50 bat 70 game power with some walks, but as you mention there’s no margin for error since he’s a good platoon bat if he’s much less than that. 45 bat/55 game power as a bat only 1B is a part-time player.

Julio Jones Comp: There was a teaser a few weeks ago about a NL West prospect who was a Julio Jones comp?  Then nothing.  It’s like Prom Night all over again.  I even bought this corsage…

Kiley McDaniel: Kristian Robinson of the D’Backs. Bahamanian J2 prospect from last year got $2.5M and has been better than expected. Eric has seen him a few times on the backfields and can provide more color but there’s some real ceiling there.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: What’s the scouting report on Colin Poche and Sam McWilliams, the PTBNL from the Souza deal? You and Eric didn’t give either a 40, but their lines so far, especially Poche, look respectable.

Kiley McDaniel: Eric tweeted out quick reports on them yesterday but short version is high others of note (35+) that could work their way onto a list. McWilliams is tall and throws hard but fringe offspeed, chance to start. Poche is deceptive lefty whose stuff plays up a lot, but some wonder how much it’ll play up in the bigs.

David: Which non top 100/200 prospects have given themselves the largest boost in the early going this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Griffin Canning is probably the top guy right now. Velo up, healthy, breaker is a little better.

Mike M: I was in Gwinnett last Friday to see Gohara play and my WORD is he… Hefty. Is that a concern for the Braves?

Kiley McDaniel: Luckily there’s some comps in Sabathia and David Wells who have made that work for years. Not saying he’s the same guy but there’s at least a precedent. For an industry that’s always picking apart bodies, Gohara’s is…not ideal. But the stuff is v good

Erik: What’s up with A.J. Minter? ERA looks good and there are reports of more save chances on the horizon, but just a 21.8% K rate and a scary 18.2% walk rate make him look like a long reliever at best, as does his 4.98 xFIP.

Kiley McDaniel: Be patient!

Peter in St Pete: Why do I keep reading these chats every week

Kiley McDaniel: Really good question

Grant: How do organizations test player development in low levels? Do they very formally say, “Try this change – we will see the effect in 4 months”, or are things simply too dynamic for that?

Kiley McDaniel: More fluid. Let’s see if this works and we’ll reevaluate when/if it does

Sean: Getting the impression from Eric’s chat that you may be the high one on Casey Mize between you and Eric.  Is he a future #2 or better?

Kiley McDaniel: I looked for reasons for him not to be #1 for us given the reasons above. Can’t really make the case as the top of the draft doesn’t have that slam dunk OMG guy this year. Hard to ignore plus stuff with control and performance in the best league…just needs to stay healthy. But if there was a red flag-less player with comparable talent, there are some that don’t like Mize’s arm action, though that more of a yellow flag for me, along with cutter use.

Dude: Soroka threw a 95-mph two-seamer. Just saying.

Kiley McDaniel: He’s always had that, but mostly worked 90-93 and reached back when he needed it. Curious to see if he sustains that or it was first night adrenaline. Some delivery tweaks and general maturation could tease a little more velo out

Vegan Man!: Florial is walking 14% of the time as a 20 year old in high A. How concerning is his 32% k rate? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a late-count guy with power so I’m starting to think he’ll always have higher BB and K rates and hit about .250 but get to his power and have defensive value. Seems like the lazy comp for that type is Mike Cameron but if I think harder I’ll come up with a better one.

Dave: Kiley, Swaggerty’s average has dipped below .300 now, well off what he hit last year.  Is he trying too hard to hit for power? And how concerned should teams be about how he’s hitting right?

Kiley McDaniel: Swing is more power-focused and he’s a little stronger and he also had a weeks long spell (when I first saw him this spring) when he was out of sync and off balance. Some clubs are a little worried about this performance but others point out that he’s hot again now (I’ll see him next week to get a better sense), while other teams are worried about some maturity issues. Eric and I know the specific instances the teams are citing, so we aren’t just taking their word for it, as we’re careful not to spread rumors about player’s makeup, especially right before what could be (but hopefully isn’t) their only payday.

Dylan R: Is there any way to tell if a pitcher has a high spin rate besides looking at Trackman or Statcast or whatever?

Kiley McDaniel: Not that I know of

Jo-Nathan: Will Soroka stay up?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d have to think so, but haven’t heard specifically

Fleer: What names are the braves connected to with the 8th pick of the draft? Is AA going to change their previous draft strategy of going pitcher heavy?

Kiley McDaniel: Hearing mostly prep/power arms there, so seems like it’ll be more of the same, but that is a question the industry is also wondering

Dave: Kiley, what do you think the chances are that Kloffenstein goes to campus if he doesn’t go first round?  TCU has been a tough place to get pitchers away from.

Kiley McDaniel: Sense is that comp/early 2nd money should get it done and that someone will pay him that

Danny: You guys had listed Vallot at 1B on the Royals list. Is that just your prediction/outlook (like putting a fringy 3B guy at 1B), or a decision the org has made?

Kiley McDaniel: We don’t think he can catch in a meaningful way long term, so that’s our call. If Vlad Jr proves he’s a fringy or better everyday 3B and sticks there, we’ll gladly switch things like that, but we’re trying to be realistic and predict the future so there’s some margin for error

RyanW: Is the buzz on the Pirates that they’re on pitching unless a college bat like Bart falls to them at 10? If so who are the prep pitchers this yr with crazy spin rates like Shane Baz who they’ve targeted in the past?

Kiley McDaniel: If Carter Stewart gets to 10 I bet they take him and he’s sliding a bit so it may happen. Notorious RPM.

P. Griddy: If you and Eric have a sizeable difference of opinion in a player when putting lists/rankings together, how do you guys usually come to an agreement of placement? Do you debate each other, split the difference, something else?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t had huge disagreements yet, or at least when we do, we break it down and usually see that one of us have new/different info and then we both fold that into what we know (via video or calling more scouts) and we end up pretty close.

Keith: Two Questions: Austin Bergner draft stock? Jordyn Adams steam?

Kiley McDaniel: Adams has some momentum into the 13-22 range as it sounds like multiple teams were targeting him in the comp round so some teams are looking to jump the line. Bergner I saw a month ago and it was just okay, average stuff. More 4th-5th.

Dan: Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna, and Mike Soroka have been massive successes to this point – and are the three youngest players in the league (go Braves). Will this trigger a trend for teams to move their prospects to the bigs more quickly?

Kiley McDaniel: Well the Braves had the best farm system in baseball and they were all consensus top 30-40 prospects in the game, so I think every team is trying to get three players that good first, then figuring out how to promote them later

Randy: What’s the scarier scenario for a scouts, seeing a prospect on his best day, or seeing him on his worst day?

Kiley McDaniel: Good question. Both are kinda scary bc your report is really tough to write and you probably need to go back

Dave: Kiley, Can Trevor Larnach’s bat carry him into the top 10 discussion and how would you compare him to former Beaver Michael Conforto?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s in play starting about 9 or 10 and probably gone by 20. Conforto had a little better feel to hit/approach, a longer track record of hitting for power in games and a little more defense, but they’re not that different.

Vegan Man!: Thoughts on Chris Shaw? Huge power, but seems like a real issue with k’s. Think he can improve the contact enough to be an above average regular? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: Like the bat control and the game power, comparable to Alonso in that way, but the pitch selection has been an issue that undermines both skills. Will need to make some improvements there, but often at this age, you don’t see that happen.

James: Did Josh Naylor make some legit swing adjustments or is his start just April randomness?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard that he has made some, curious to see some video and see how much difference there is

Jacob: Coming out of HS, does Jarred Kelenic have a better profile and ceiling in comparison to the top HS OF (Adell / Beck)? If not then where is he lacking?

Kiley McDaniel: Kelenic has a much longer track record of hitting in games–two summers–and Adell was just okay in one summer, Beck didn’t have a summer so Kelenic’s bat is much safer. Beck has the most tools, Adell the most explosive power while Kelenic is a lot of 55’s essentially.

Jays Fan Matt: Hearing any other names connected to Toronto at pick 12? Any guys you’ve heard them scouting for possibly the second round? Thanks as always.

Kiley McDaniel: Kumar Rocker and Connor Scott are two names I’ve heard a good bit. Nicholas Schnell in the 2nd I’ve also heard.

Dave: Kiley, Griffin Conine is struggling so badly, could he now fall out of the second round?  For a hitter who’s never hit .300 in college, it would seem a team drafting him would be putting a lot of faith in his Cape Cod performance.

Kiley McDaniel: And exit velos! He’ll likely go 2nd round to a numbers based team that has track record in a good league with a wood bat and power figures to look at along with hitting gurus to say he’s out of whack but I can fix him

Matt: Hi Kiley! I’ve been trying to research spin rates but have been having a difficult time finding much information on spin rates for individual pitchers. Are you aware of a publicly available source for that data?

Kiley McDaniel: I believe Savant has those

Vegan Man!: Cole Tucker going to grow into some power? Or is he strictly a speed guy? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: More bat over power, gap/contact approach type

Billy Jean Is Not My Son: Hey, Is Trevor Stephan a top 100 candidate? 6’5, good stuff and he’s making a mockery of the minor leagues. SP or RP assuming health?

Kiley McDaniel: Off speed is just fringy, but if it’s consistently average then he’s very interesting

Roger: Who has a better offensive tools? Jonathan India or Jeremy Eierman? Do you expect both to go in the first round?

Kiley McDaniel: Eierman feel like 20-35 range. Both have averageish tools and slightly above raw. India a better hitter, Eierman a little more defensive versatility can play some SS early in his career and maybe stick but been up and down contact wise this spring

Justin: Thoughts on a Soroka/Kluber comparison?

Kiley McDaniel: Seems early!

Jo-Nathan: Most other publications made no mention of Reggie Lawson, is he a legit prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep! Possible starter with above avg stuff at times. We heard mixed things over the winter, some buzz that it’s improved this spring.

tacopocket: Anybody worth looking at on Notre Dame?

Kiley McDaniel: Not as a high pick. Freshman RHP Joe Boyle is the best prospect but you can see from his numbers why he doesn’t play a ton. Huge dude with easy 94-97 t100 mph fastball.

Joe: Do you think players from NPB “should” be listed as prospects? I’m on the fence for guys like Ohtani, but many of the players who come over have basically 5-10 years experience at roughly just sub MLB level.

Kiley McDaniel: We called Ohtani one given his age and development stage, especially after missing a good chunk of 2017. The 30 year old crafty lefties are obviously not and that’s mostly what comes over.

PD: Nick Kingham wasn’t listed as a 40 FV or better in the Pirates writeup. With his apparently new slider and improved results in AAA, what would you rerate him as?

Kiley McDaniel: He’ll be on there in the update. He had two 55’s and a 50 pre surgery and was a fringe top 100 candidate as a 50 FV for me, if I recall all that correctly. He could be that guy once again, we’ll see.

Xolo: Who are the Padres looking at? Still Stewart and Liberatore? Any bats?

Kiley McDaniel: I mentioned one of their targets at the beginning and will be seeing him on this trip. Actually, two of the leading candidates. Don’t want to ruin the whole mock on here.

TKDC: Would you characterize the Braves prospect depth at catcher as being so deep that one of them is likely to end up league average or better?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Joe: You think Ornelas can be a top 100 guy by 2019?

Kiley McDaniel: Possible, wouldn’t call it likely. Sounds like a 2nd rounder.

Vegan Man!: Any word on who the Yankees are looking at in the 1st round? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like it’ll be a bat, but a little low to have a lot of specific dope at this point

Joe: Heard anything on Paddack’s return?

Kiley McDaniel: Eric saw low 90’s and a 70 changeup recently so that’s encouraging

Dave: Kiley, has a consensus forming around Kelenic being the top HS bat in the draft, or are there some that prefer Gorman , or Scott or Turang?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard cases for Gorman and Kelenic, we’re the high guys on Scott and have him in that mix. Some have Turang in that group but I don’t think anyone has him tops of that group.

Uncle Leo: Is Connor Scott’s missed time due to his hamstring injury going to cause him to drop a little, or have scouts basically seen what they need to from him already?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, some decision makers haven’t even seen him this spring. He’s back DHing now for teams that need a late look.

TJ: Any Marlins info like Who they might be looking at #13? Connected to in IFA? Or when Trevor Rogers might pitch?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard Triston Casas and Xavier Edwards specifically from a couple sources

Eric: Hey Kiley! Safe to assume that the Kelenic ship has sailed for the Tigers and he won’t be their pick at 1-1 despite the early flirtation?

Kiley McDaniel: It is safe.

PhatGreenPuppet: Why are Sixto Sanchez’s strikeout totals so low?

Kiley McDaniel: Dont know but I should see him in the next few weeks as well

Evan: A lot of different mocks showing Mike Siani, Alek Thomas, & Nick Schnell all in different orders. Will all three be 1st rounders?

Kiley McDaniel: Siani and Thomas sounds like they’ll go in the 22-35 area. Schnell sounds like more 35-50 with Nick Decker

grapes: wait is this strictly a prospect chat?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s whatever questions I get but it’s been almost all prospects this week. I guess Soroka is a big leaguer and the spirit animal of the chat is a helmet-less Albies that’s snuggling Scout my puppy so that’s two non prospects as well.

sam: is tanaka a fair comp for mize?

Kiley McDaniel: Someone else mentioned that to me. Haven’t watched Tanaka enough lately but the cutter/splitter thing kinda fits from what I remember, though I don’t think Tanaka throws 93-96

Dan: Compared to years past, the consensus seems to be that the top of the draft is below average while the depth of the draft is above average.  Do you agree with this?

Kiley McDaniel: Broadly, I guess. In a couple years these sorts of pronouncements are usually proven wrong

Traitor Joe: Is it possible Johan Camargo can be a league average or better hitter?  From the eye test, he seems much more powerful than his minor league numbers would indicate…

Kiley McDaniel: He added strength between 2016 and 2017 and became a different sort of hitter, so I’d start looking there and forward

Caleb: Is signing a contract after the draft but playing one more football season in the fall a legit possibility for Kyler Murray?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, either doing that or not signing at all seem like the two options. I’ll see him in a few weeks as well

Guesto: American Athletic Conference has some lowkey good baseball. Any names – outside of Shane McClanahan and Alec Bohm – on your radar?

Kiley McDaniel: Sneaky solid league, had that conersation with a scouts at Wichita/UCF on Sunday: every team has pro level guys which is only true of a few leagues, but those are the top tier types this year.

The CL: Can you tell us about Adam Hill?  South Carolina RHP is dominating the SEC and I’d literally never heard of him until this past weekend.

Kiley McDaniel: Has given some very different looks to scouts this year. Hoping I see him vs. Rolison on Friday

Miguel: What is your report & ranking of RHP Saul Gonzalez from Montverde Academy in Florida and where do you see him projected in the draft

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him last week 91-95 with a fringe breaker and below command. Big kid, interesting prospect, feels like a guy that would benefit from a couple years in college and maybe get really paid with some adjustments

Eric: What teams have been in heaviest on likely 2nd rounders Nick Schnell and Parker Meadows?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard TOR and SD on Schnell, KC, LA and TB on Meadows

Bryce: Have you heard anything about who the Mariners are interested in at 14?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard they’re looking college and polished so Trevor Larnach, Logan Gilbert, Jonathan India make sense

LAD: Would you ever suggest a player just give up switch hitting (especially if weak side is batting lefty?)

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Jim: Greyson Jenista top 15?

Kiley McDaniel: More 22-35

Brad Buddy B: would you ever rank scouting director prospects, or a list of future directors? Would love to see some rising stars highlighted

Kiley McDaniel: It’s super subjective even if you work with them, so feels a little too guess-y to do it publicly with a bunch of guys I don’t know super well vs. some that I do

Josh R: I know not to scout from the numbers, but what is it about Eric Lauer that makes him a lesser prospect regardless of his very good minor league numbers?

Kiley McDaniel: Fringy stuff, does it with command and deception which sometimes works in the big leagues but most often is the type of player that performs then gets up there and gets hit around.

connor: why aren’t the

Jerj Clooners: If Scout were a spaniel you could call her Scout McSpaniel

Kiley McDaniel: we’re in range

Mike M: Please address the elephant in the room that is Luiz Gohara being the size of an elephant.

tacopocket: I, for one, miss the days of the hefty players. gimme more sid Fernandez, john Kruk, cecil fielder, david wells

Cob Bobb: As a Florida Man, how many Daniel Tosh posters do you have in your beer-pong room. How are bath salts?

Kiley McDaniel: And that’ll do it. Back on the road, working hard to see baseball players for you!