Kiley McDaniel Chat – 8/22/18

Kiley McDaniel: Hello reader, puppy took a long detour on the walk and I’m a pushover so here I am at 12:10. Lets see what you’ve got for me today.

Tommy N.: Did you see Ryan Weathers start yesterday? Looks like he’s pretty polished already is he more polished than Gore coming out of high school?

Kiley McDaniel: Didn’t see the start, but the level of polish is definitely comparable. Gore flashes 60’s with a better delivery and Weathers is more 55’s with no projection, short stride. Not like hugely different, but HS pitchers are risky and there’s lots of teenagers with big stuff, so these sorta small differences become important

Garrett: Anthopoulos just said he believes the Braves internal talent is better than what’s out on the market? Do you believe it’s true or is this just leverage.

Kiley McDaniel: Well in the sense that they didn’t need to go acquire a bunch of high octane arms bc they have Fried, Gohara, Wilson, Toussaint, Allard, Wright, etc. all hanging around is true. They still picked up a few veteran arms, but if fans think they should’ve cashed in two of those guys for Archer when there’s a chance one of those guys just is Archer going forward (but younger and way cheaper) is probably correct.

Shawn: Between Loaisiga and Domingo German – Who has the better chance to start and who would be the better RP? Overall, who has more FV?

Kiley McDaniel: They’re similar guys with big stuff and not quite enough finesse to start long term (or so we tend to think). We have JL a little higher but that may just be because I like Italian food

Ceej : Rushing a prospect can be bad for their development. Ignoring service time, how long could the Jays leave Vlad in AAA next year before it becomes a hindrance?

Kiley McDaniel: If you mean when will Vlad get bored and start developing bad habits because he isn’t being challenged? I think Acuna, while a different sort of player, is a good measure of how much there is to gain in Triple-A when you’re performing like this at this age. He should be up. Acuna needed to learn in the bigs against pitchers that could challenge him. Even if the focus is to force Vlad to focus more on D, when he’s embarrassing 4A pitchers at age 19, do you really think that’s a setting that will make him change something meaningfully?

It’s unrealistic, but much of this is on the MLBPA for incentivizing teams to do this. If I’m running a team I want to do what’s right by the kid, but this would be an enticing option in a non-contending season.

Skip: You had a brief mention of Lambert in your Glasnow piece. Is his ceiling a back end guy or is there a chance he can finesse his way to a #2 or #3?

Kiley McDaniel: Any of these guys with one plus pitch and above average command projection could turn into a #3, but I usually don’t make a habit of projecting it. More of a #4 for me.

Woodrow the Impaler: What could the Giants plan be for Marco Luciano in 2019? DSL?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know the plan, but for top guys like him, it’s usually the AZL/GCL, with a possibility like Wander Franco to be promoted if he rakes.

Civil WAR: Is Nolan Gorman still a 50 FV?  Any movement now or guesses on where he’ll be in the offseason write ups?

Kiley McDaniel: Only Madrigal and Mize are 55’s from that draft class, so Gorman can’t really get up there until the positional stuff is more decided, which will take time to see which direction he’s trending. A couple scouts said when Gorman was getting beat up by scouts this spring that he’s Austin Riley and he’s sure starting his pro career the same way.

Bearry: Glasnow showed a lot of spunk in his most recent start. Loving it so far.

Kiley McDaniel: Boss in an 80s comedy: You’ve got a lot of spunk (stern face, long pause) GOOD THING BC I LOVE SPUNK

G Mac: You said last week that Andres Gimenez was a 55/60 glove. Is that at SS or 2B?

Kiley McDaniel: SS. Not to be reductive, but there’s a stereotype that Venezuelan shortstops often don’t have super flashy defensive tools (speed, arm, size) but always make the most of them (like Vizquel, etc.) and Gimenez fits into that.

Hello: Austin Beck’s doing fine, right? I shouldn’t be worrying about the power outage?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, he was always gonna take awhile and his main issue was contact rate. Power can always come later. I’d look for walk rate to be the next thing to improve before he starts swinging for the fences.

Bearry: What do the Rays do with their upper level MIF depth? Adames, Wendle, Arroyo, Robertson, Duffy, Lowe, Solak, Wong, and Velazquez?

Kiley McDaniel: Step 1: accumulate MI depth
Step 3: profit

Kiley McDaniel: I have no idea. Hypothetically, teams in this position, like STL/Ozuna, cash in depth for shorter term MLB pieces when the window is open. Not sure that fits in TB’s plan but eventually I think it has to, bc they’re getting close to having too many guys

Lilith: Any early thoughts on Mike Siani? I know there were some early concerns about the hit tool, but he seems to be doing fairly well.

Kiley McDaniel: We didn’t worry about the hit tool, he’s performed everywhere. He just didn’t have a ton of projection in the frame, 50 raw power, and not a ton of loft. So, he’d need a successful swing change to hit his upside and there wasn’t much else margin for error since it’s more polish than explosion.

John: Starters generally need at least 3 pitches.  Why aren’t FBs and sinkers considered different pitches for these purposes?

Kiley McDaniel: Well it isn’t 3 pitches in a vacuum, it’s a fastball, then an offspeed pitch to neutralize RH and another for LH. FB and SNK don’t differ enough to do that different of a job.

JustinPe: The cardinals have two youungsters-Ivan Herrera and joerlin de los santos- who are performing really well in the GCL and DSL respectively. Just wondering if they were legit prospects or I’m missing something from their stat line. Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: Herrera is pretty solid, not a slam dunk catcher since the arm is just okay but has some hit/power. Probably a guy on the list soon enough.

George Matthew: Hi Kiley. Have you had any looks (or heard from someone who has) at the A’s Jorge Mateo lately? I know he fell some in your updated rankings, but the 80 speed is tantalizing. Can he hit enough to be Billy Hamilton at SS? Better than that?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s been maturity concerns since A-ball for Mateo and scouts have usually said there isn’t quite enough feel for SS, where 2B or CF makes more sense. I find these types of prospects underperform or take longer than usual and that seems to be generally accurate with Mateo. Big upside and in Triple-A, so that’s why he’s still ranked pretty high.

Aaron H: You guys seem to be the high ones on Cristian Pache, but even a ranking in the high-20s seems low based upon his tool grades. A league average bat w/ 80 D in center is basically Kiermaier, who would’ve been 5.5-6 WAR annually if he could ever have stayed on the field for a full season. Shouldn’t he be, like, top 5?

Kiley McDaniel: Doesn’t seem like teams pay for lofty defensive numbers, in part bc they peak early (more tied to athleticism than hitting is and athleticism peaks earlier than offense) and teams have more sophisticated defensive measures than the public. That said, Pache has made real offensive progress this year, so I’d imagine he’ll move up in the offseason as some guys graduate ahead of him.

Vslyke: I know you project Barreto to CF, but are the A’s going to use him to replace Lowrie at 2B in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel: Well they can’t put Mateo and Barreto there and they both have similar defensive tools, so I’ll be curious to see how this plays out. I’d put Barreto at 2B and Mateo at CF, personally.

TKDC: You have a down arrow on Kyle Wright and also have his ETA as 2020, but he is pitching pretty good this year. What’s not good about him and why don’t you think he’ll be in Atlanta in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel: He moved down a bit in our update, relative to the guys ranked around him, but it was slight. Wright was inconsistent earlier in the year but has been better of late.

Bob Dobalina: With Mauricio joining the team, the Mets’ most interesting bat prospects are all grouped together in Kingsport. How would you rank Kelenic, Vientos, Mauricio, Newton and Santana in terms of their likelihood of being a future MLB regular?

Kiley McDaniel: Kelenic, Mauricio (big dropoff)

GPT: What things have changed in terms of international prospect evaluation by teams and by people like you in the last decade?

Kiley McDaniel: Way more games which has particularly increased the ability to project hitters, way less identity fraud, better overall organization and efficiency but there’s room for improvement still.

Rob: Hey Kiley and scout! Regarding Hudson Potts, he’s quietly made AA as a teen. Could he be a 45 hit 55 power 50 d 3b? How far from t100 is he?

Kiley McDaniel: Could be that! Not super far, probably inside the top 175-200 right now.

Mike W: Baltimorons talk about getting back to the ‘Oriole Way’ all the time in Charm City. I’m 28. The ‘Oriole Way’ in my life has been last place and try to not lose 90. How would you implement an ‘Oriole Way’ that would result in the development of some real prospects? Pitching prospects to be specific.

Kiley McDaniel: “The Braves Way” and I’d imagine a bunch of other versions across all sports end up being a bunch of outdated nostalgia of when some generational talents did a great thing. People think doing those same things now will yield great results, independent of 1) how the game has changed or 2) the talent of the people implementing it. There isn’t a magic way to do this or everyone would be doing it.

Enrique: For dynasty fantasy purposes, which 2 of these would you rather have: Elehuris Montero, Yusniel Diaz, Kristian Robinson, Micker Adolfo.

Kiley McDaniel: Probably Robinson and Adolfo, but Diaz is the closest/safest

Jason: Good Morning, Kiley. David Peralta is having a terrific season and has largely been good since joining Arizona in 2014. My question is – was there any reasonable expectation that he could be so successful when he signed out of independent ball? And how common is it for players to come seemingly out of nowhere to become productive big leaguers?

Kiley McDaniel: There was zero expectation, and there are zero expectations of every Indy League signing. I was involved w/NYY when we signed Edwar Ramirez out of an independent league and the initial plan was for him to fill in for a month or two in High-A during a bunch of injuries and be released before the end of the year…and he ended up making 103 MLB appearances. That’s how a very minor success story of finding a replacement level reliever went. And that was after I was bugging office people for over a month to sign this guy. Most teams don’t even pay attention to Indy leagues until they have an injury glut and need a guy to fill in.

Jackson: How does Ryan Weathers compare to Braxton Garrett coming out of the draft (or pre-injury)?

Kiley McDaniel: Garrett had a little more stuff and a little more projectability, Weathers has a little more command

Bored Employee: What’s the highest level you think Wander Franco could stay afloat at right now? Would he be an average performer in Charlotte?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah he would probably not be out of place in High-A

Stan: Matt Manning seems to be striking everybody out. If he gets his command in line, could he be a No. 1 starter?

Kiley McDaniel: Well command has been the question with him the whole time and he’s 6’6, so it’s probably never going to be a strength. He also needs a little more improvement on the changeup as well. I suppose the potential is in there, but he’s not very close to it right now and it’s a very small chance.

I mean, Tyler Glasnow was pretty similar to this when he was in the FSL–would you say he has a chance to be a #1? Most would say almost none given his winding path and issues with changeup/consistency. Not to say that a #2/3 isn’t a good thing.

Rebuilding: Can you name 3 RH pitching prospects with more upside than Dylan Cease (be honest).

Kiley McDaniel: Planning to drive north to see Cease tonight, so I’ll have a better answer next week. Anyone want to watch Scout for me?

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: What are the main things to watch now that Shane McClanahan is pitching? Control and velocity?

Kiley McDaniel: Velo shouldn’t be an issue. Offspeed crispness and command were the issues this spring.

Al Alburquerque: What is Drew Waters’s power ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably 60 on the raw, 55 on the game, maybe a hair more if he really adds a lot of weight

ChatzMcGee: Who are some relief prospects you like as future late inning guys? And do relief prospects as a population seem to be the most prone to putting up gaudy minor league numbers that don’t translate to the majors?

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-some-lower-ranked-prospects-we-l…

Kiley McDaniel: That preseason list (relievers at the bottom) has been pretty decent

Frank: You mentioned Maurico on the mets, what’s his upside?

Kiley McDaniel: Really high, so early that we don’t really know yet, but definitely on a top 50 overall prospect trajectory. Chance for above average offense and average D at SS

Bobopedia: any insight on Blaze Jordan? seems to be 1B only which is kinda bad for a 16 year old, but looks like he can mash

Kiley McDaniel: Big exit velo but a R/R 15-year-old 1B isn’t exactly the place to look for a future MLB superstar. He’s one of the top couple guys in his class right now (2021), but that’s because most of the high future draft picks haven’t matured yet.

I am not on THE BOARD: Hello, I am a 23 year old OF prospect who is batting .296/.382/.444 in 112 games across AA and AAA this year. Some scouts have me at 65 run and 55 field. I don’t know how my power will play at the big league level, but I do have 41 XBH this year, including 10 homers. What more do I have to do to get on THE BOARD?

Kiley McDaniel: I feel like supplying the name would help

Mike: Anthony Castro is an arm in the Tigers’ system I’ve always thought was underrated. Any chance he can at least be a late inning guy?

Kiley McDaniel: Just saw him a few days ago. Mid-90’s with some cut, above breaker, some deception, looks like a reliever but very live arm

Spicy Boy: how much data do teams have on things like spin rate, exit velocities, etc? how much is this actually used in player development?

Kiley McDaniel: They essentially all have all of that from every pitch of the minor leagues for every team, except the DSL. And the public has none of it.

GSon: Nick Sandlin has already moved to A+ Lynchburg and is showing no slow down in his ability to make outs.. Could he be the first June 2018 First Entry Draftee to make it to the major leagues as a September call up?

Kiley McDaniel: YES!

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

Eric @longenhagen & I said Southern Miss sidearm RHP Nick Sandlin would reach MLB first from the 2018 draft. Clevel… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

14 Aug 2018

Bored Employee: Can you think of any organization with a more damaging, pervasive philosophy than the Orioles choice not to spend in the international market?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, although it sounds like that’s moving in the right direction. It’s also super easy. Like imagine what you could do if you didn’t sign Chris Davis *ducks*

Kyle: Does Brusdar have the stuff to profile as a potential #1 if things go right?

Kiley McDaniel: He shows an above changeup, plus breaker and hits 100, all without the long levers issues of Manning, so there’s a better chance that Brusdar! could become an ace. But Brusdar! also has some command issues.

Todd: Who has the better offensive profile of Josh Naylor, Franmal Reyes and Hunter Renfroe?

Kiley McDaniel: Gimme Naylor

Wade : Get a chance to see CJ Alexander yet? Still hitting at high A

Kiley McDaniel: Answered last week, but still getting this question. Was stiff at 3B, 50 arm, plus raw and some feel for contact. Still think it’s a power over hit 1B, likely platoon, but still a good find for the round/bonus.

Kyle: Does Wander Franco’s frame hold him back from future power? He’s a good bit smaller than all the recent extreme prospects (Vlad, Acuna, Soto)

Kiley McDaniel: He’s got thunder in those hands, doesn’t need to be big when you got that, son

Larry: Nick Madrigal is really hitting the hell out of the ball.

Kiley McDaniel: The bandwagon is filling up fast but luckily Nick doesn’t take up much room

AFL: Any names you expect to see in AFL?

Kiley McDaniel: There was a question last week or the week before with a bunch of good suggestions that all made sense. Forrest Whitley seems like an easy one that comes to mind. Could see Vlad or Tatis as the “Harper/Trout trying to create more endurance for a close-to-MLB elite prospect” type. Basically any top prospect that had a half season or less or reps this year and is now fully healthy.

j: Antonio Cabello’s season ended due to a shoulder injury, but he put up big numbers prior to getting hurt. GCL aside, should I be excited?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, the tools are huge

mike sixel: Odds Royce Lewis is a SS or CF in MN?

Kiley McDaniel: I lean CF, 65/35

Nick: Can you (or someone else) link the player profile when a player is mentioned in chat? I know Eric has done it lately. Its really helpful to go on a players profile and pull up a recent chat where they were mentioned

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve been doing it lately, if there’s been a substantive discussion beyond just this guy over that guy

Angelus Novus: David Laurila just posted a nice piece on Zac Lowther. Do you see him as a back-end starter or more of a LOOGY?

Kiley McDaniel: A bit of a smoke and mirrors type, but some of those guys keep it up forever and deception is hard to quantify soooo (shrug emoji)

Neil Degrasse Tyson: Did you know, if you lined up every baseball used in a given MLB season, it would stretch a quarter of the way to the moon? And if you did that with every blood vessel in your body, you would die.

Kiley McDaniel: Oh, we’re here already

Ross Gellar: WE WERE ON A BREAK!!!

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: How does it feel to be entertaining a bunch of people while they’re pooping at work?

Mrs Butterworth: Stop Drinkin my damn Syrup!

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks for stopping by, Ross and Mrs. B. Big fan of you two. See you all next week!