Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 11/14/14

Kiley McDaniel: Looking for a snappy intro? Then you’re at the wrong chat.

Comment From TK
That’s… kinda snappy, no?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like I need to ratchet down the snappiness. Note taken.

Comment From Graham
Seeing a number of differing opinions on Devon Travis since he was traded to the Jays. Everything from “not a big-leaguer” to “possible future batting champ.” What are your thoughts on Devon Travis?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s an okay defensive 2B with feel for the barrel and some speed that has a not so dynamic swing but makes the most of it. Could be a starter if it all comes together, more of a fringe regular or good backup for me.

Comment From Del Martin
Rumor has it that the Padres and Rangers are working on a trade that would reunite Preller with some of his discoveries. As a Padres fan, who should I be hoping for?

Kiley McDaniel: Funny you mention that because I wrote up that whole system recently in an amount of detail that could only be described as “too much detail”: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Korean Bat Flip
Tyrone Taylor any better than a 4th OF?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, will probably be a 50 FV guy when i get around to the MIL list. 60 runner fits in CF, 45 raw power, feel for the bat head…pretty good all around guy in a not very good system.

Comment From Keith Law
FINALLY IT’S KILEY TIIIMEEE!!!

Kiley McDaniel: Everyone loves a KMcD Chat

Comment From john
which cubs prospect do you see getting moved?

Kiley McDaniel: Whichever one just bought a new house

Comment From Xolo
What kind of major leaguer does Trea Turner become?

Kiley McDaniel: Still a ways off to have much certainty on this, but I see 50+ bat, 40 power, 70 speed and he plays shortstop…so you tell me.

Comment From Marco
Hi Kiley, thanks for the chat. Royals piece coming soon? I’d like to know your opinion on Marten Gasparini

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know if you heard but they did pretty well this year, so inverse order of the standings means that one will take awhile. Very raw, 6’0 skinny athlete with some tools but way too early to have any idea where it’s headed

Comment From Zach
Any thoughts on Zach Davies? Had a solid AA season for the Orioles at age 21, and has produced really nice results so far in the AFL.

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him in the AFL last week and he was exactly what BAL people told me to expect: 88-91, 50+ CB, 60 CH, 55 CMD. Probably a 4th starter, but could be even more in there, especially if he can put on some weight.

Comment From Bubbles
Nomar Mazara: how good can he be?

Kiley McDaniel: I talked about this in that super long Rangers list as well: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Kiley McDaniel: The short answer is really good

Comment From PadsFan97
How excited should I get about Hunter Renfroe?

Kiley McDaniel: I find that whatever I tell the internet is an appropriate amount of expectations, they’ll shoot for something two notches higher then yell at me if he doesn’t produce in his first game….so…..expect nothing?

Comment From Guest
I think that intro counts. Recursive self-cancellation

Kiley McDaniel: Hold on, guys it’s gonna take me a minute to look this up

Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
My cousin (he’s signed a D1 letter of intent) played at the high school showcase thing you were at in Jupiter. No question, just think that’s really cool.

Kiley McDaniel: That i was there or that he was there?

Comment From Eye roll
A warm welcome from Kiley McDaniel; let’s see what other surprises this chat has in store.

Kiley McDaniel: Rolls, ranked:
1. Cinnamon
2. Yeast
3. Eye

Comment From TK
Will Steven Moya hit major league pitching and be a valuable asset in the future? Or is his terrible bb/k rate too horrible to overcome? Has anyone succeeded in MLB with that kind of horrible bb/k rate in the minors that we can look for to hope on?

Kiley McDaniel: To make that sort of BB/K ratio work, you need a carrying skill, like plus foot speed, bat speed, bat control, raw power, etc. Moya has at least 70 power and he’s left-handed. I think there’s a platoon guy here that might have a couple seasons of a regular if he can make some adjustments.

Comment From Gabes
You have Spencer Adams listed as a ‘4’ Risk, but no mentions of issues with his delivery. Is the high risk just the result of him being a long way from The Show?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, skinny high school righty isn’t a group you generally want to count on staying healthy…even when there’s no negative signs specific to the player. Also distance to the big leagues means a lot of stuff can still go wrong.

Comment From CJ
Were you able to see Tyrone Taylor in person this regulars season, or in the AFL? Is there 20-homer potential?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, FSL and AFL. I’d hope for 15, expect 10-12.

Comment From Guest
You’ve written about most prospects, and you’ve chatted about the rest. Why even bother with these chats?

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks, Mom!

Comment From Guest
Will you re-enact the Kim Kardashian champagne pose for your profile picture?

Kiley McDaniel: How did you know?

Comment From Eminor3rd
Many of us White Sox fans are cautiously optimistic about Rangel Ravelo as an underrated guy. We feel like the hit tool is scarce enough that it could carry him even if he doesn’t develop a ton of power. You seem to be a bit lower on him than a lot of us, though. Could you elaborate a bit?

Kiley McDaniel: Sometimes 1B prospects with average tools end up being good. Most of them don’t. When I don’t have a lot of evidence telling me that they’ll be good, I tend to lean towards them being ordinary, as do most/all scouts. If Ravelo’s wRC+ was 110 instead of 142 (admittedly a big gap), I don’t think he would’ve been on the list. But you can’t rule it out that he hits like that next year…then he’d be pretty far down the list of AAA 1B, with tons of them raking….then you have just another dude. Unfortunately for him, he has to keep proving it.

Comment From Joe
Do you expect the Braves to become major players in the amateur international free agent market? Do you know if they have any deals in place for next year? And do they have any money left in this years pool? Thanks

Kiley McDaniel: I think they will boost their Int’l spending and it might start with Moncada, but that’s still a ways off from being decided. Don’t know of any deals in place for them, but their new regime has been in place for like a month, so I would expect that to be in place yet.

Comment From Joel
Is it Manuel Margot’s defense that has caused some people to rank him higher than Devers in the Sox system?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, has BP power that he hasn’t tapped into in games yet and he’s a plus defender that’s older and has performed at a higher level.

Kiley McDaniel: Here’s that Red Sox list: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Jimmy
Is there any 2014/2015 high profile international free agents left and are the Yankees involve also do you know if they signed any additional free agents since july 2

Kiley McDaniel: Colombian RF Bryan Emery is the big name that still hasn’t signed. Last I heard he was holding out for $2 million and is still working out for clubs. NYY was on him at one point, doesn’t appear to be right now but who knows. NYY’s big signings were all around 7/2.

Comment From brappp
I love your reports man. I am a Jays fan and can’t wait until you get to them. Can you give me a tidbit off the top of your head to satiate me until then?

Kiley McDaniel: Dalton Pompey was better in the AFL than I was told by scouts that saw him in the regular season

Comment From Nick
Do you think Michalczewski can stick at 3b? If not, what are the odds his bat can carry him at 1b?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s at least average at 3B and should be able to stick. The White Sox list w/mode details: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Joel
What player have you missed the most on in your career? What player have you been validated the most on?

Kiley McDaniel: Didn’t think Betances would be a big leaguer of consequence. When he looked bad in MILB….he looked really bad. Matt Carpenter was my guy back when I was working for a club. Pushed for my team to trade for him..the year before his breakout…soooooooooo

Comment From jjdouglas
Great piece on Moncada. After reading it, I feel a little more concerned about him being allowed entrance into the USA given his current standing with Cuba. Was there a general sense (from what you could tell) if his uncommon circumstance would end up delaying entrance into MLB beyond the standard ways players typically leave the island?

Kiley McDaniel: No indications to that end yet…but there’s still a lot unknown/unreported at this point on Moncada.

Comment From Boy Named Kelly
Do you have a standard go-to line when someone says “but thats a girls name”? I get it all the time and never came up with something snarky enough

Kiley McDaniel: I usually just mention my job

Comment From semperty
Given Dean Anna’s success in MiLB, why did he reach free agency? And why wasn’t he more coveted on the market?

Kiley McDaniel: He got a big league deal…I’d call that coveted.

Comment From Ryan
Kiley, do you have Michigan OF Nick Plummer as one of the HS position players making a push for that 1st round in June?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes and I have a list for that, too: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Nick
How patient do you expect the White Sox to be with Montas as a SP? How patient would you be?

Kiley McDaniel: I would guess they give him all of next year in AA then pull the plug if he doesn’t show improvement, maybe fort he MLB pen in september if they’re in the race

Comment From Tyler
Cubs fans are excited that opening game is in Wrigley v. STL. Methinks Cubs fans are getting a little ahead of themselves.

Kiley McDaniel: I can tell you with confidence that I don’t care

Comment From Orioles Fan
If the orioles trade Chris Davis this off season do you think christian walker will earn the starting job? and how good of a player do you think he will become? And who would you take Bundy or Hunter Harvey?

Kiley McDaniel: Walker is a solid 45-50 1B and it’ll depend on adjustments which one he ends up being. Worth taking a look at him, since he could return nice value as a regular.

Comment From Nick
Do you think the White Sox will ease Rodon into MLB as a RP?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, I would bet in rotation by June 1

Comment From Kelly
When are you slated to review the Orioles farm system? Any under the radar names to look for there?

Kiley McDaniel: I still believe in Josh Hart, just needs to make some mechanical adjustments to get his confidence back. Zach Davies will prob be a 50 FV, Hess is a nice sleeper.

Comment From Salty
Do judge, severino, bird all make top 100 next list?

Kiley McDaniel: I would guess yes but my list will be much longer than 100

Comment From Gabes
Reading your ChiSox write-up, their theme seems to be “Athletic guys, raw tools, no feel to hit” as evidenced by Mitchell, Thompson, Hawkins, etc. Is this the result of just betting on the wrong raw, toolsy dudes or a failure of the development system?

Kiley McDaniel: Looking for upside when a while back they didn’t. This is what happens when it sometimes take a little longer

Comment From Gary
What is Carson Sands’ ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Similar to Davies. #3 if it all goes perfectly, but more reasonably a #4.

Comment From john
Can you explain to me the fascination with nimmo? the guy ks at like a 28% and has no power. I get he walks alot, but if he cant keep the Ks down in MILB, what makes anyone think he wont be over 30% at the major level?

Kiley McDaniel: Above average power, runs well, smooth cut, athletic lefty. Shades of JD Drew from the eyeball test.

Comment From phil
What are your thoughts on Nick Williams and Nomar Mazara?

Kiley McDaniel: Looks like I’m gonna link to the same list 34 times in this chat: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Ben
On the off chance Corey Seager can stick at SS for a few years, where do you place his offensive potential among the other top SS prospects in the game?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t plan on that. I would bet he’s only an emergency SS fill-in at the big league level, if that.

Comment From JT
You were on the road recently for 3 weeks or something like that, how bad does a scout eat?

Kiley McDaniel: Chipotle is everywhere, so natch I eat like a King on the reg

Comment From Guest
Trea Turner or Tim Anderson?

Kiley McDaniel: Anderson – more upside and proven at higher level, but it’s not by a landslide

Comment From JP
Is Purke likely done or done done?

Kiley McDaniel: He was done in the MLB sense a while ago, when he went from 92-95 to 88-91 from overuse/injuries

Comment From Guest
Also I want you to know that I specifically searched the site to make sure you hadn’t previously written 1000 words on him before I asked that Wren question.

Kiley McDaniel: Appreciated. Haven’t written about Wren b/c he isn’t that good. CF that runs, bat is light, not a lot of power. Could be an okay reserve.

Comment From Paul
Is Nick Markakis a realistic offensive comp for Jesse Winker?

Kiley McDaniel: Eh, early Markakis is reasonable, but Nick has always been a better athlete than Winker. Both pitched as amateurs, but Markakis was into mid-90’s from the left side…he could still prob get MLB hitters out.

Comment From In need of prognostication
which lunch option in my fridge has a better future: the undressed salad (mainly lettuce with a few veggies and beans) or two-day old chili and rice? Trying to figure out which to eat today and which to save for monday.

Kiley McDaniel: Salad has upside with no day-old dressing on it

Comment From Chowe
Thoughts on Jorge Mateo?

Kiley McDaniel: You’re in luck I already wrote that, too and included video from instructs: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Prison MIke
So I hear this Yoan Moncada guy is pretty awesome. Tell us again how high you’d rank him among all prospects.

Kiley McDaniel: Need a little more info, but would probably be comfortably in the top 10 overall.

Comment From LarryA
Great article on Moncada. Do you expect that sometime in the next 4-6 months you or someone will write something and know all the mysterious information?

Kiley McDaniel: In fairness, I already know some of it, but haven’t confirmed it enough to actually write it. Teams will figure it all out before he signs, not sure if it all gets written, though.

Comment From tnyfn20
Looking at the stats, it appears that Dalton Pompey and Ben Revere are similar? I’ve never seen Pompey play so how wrong am I with the comp?

Kiley McDaniel: Pompey has 50 raw, Revere might have had 40, but it played down in games. Pompey also isn’t quite as fast, but still legit 60-70.

Comment From Gabes
Can the chat software be hacked to make a Reggaeton horn sound every time Kiley responds?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve put our tech team on this

Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
That you were theoretically scouting him. He played for the St. Louis Pirates

Kiley McDaniel: I watched them briefly, so I guess I saw him in theory. They had two legit prospects (Jake Brentz-TOR and Devin Williams-MIL) on that team two years ago.

Comment From Korean Bat Flip
Barrel roll? Hello?

Kiley McDaniel: I prefer shoulder rolls, especially with Neeson involved

Comment From semperty
Can fans just read the reports of the teams that are out, and then stop asking for players you’ve already written about?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean, in fairness they COULD do anything

Comment From jjdouglas
I hear often about the commissioner’s office putting pressure on teams to protect certain interests. Example: Teams overshoot draft bonus suggestions in old CBA. Bryce Harper potentially establishing residence in Dominican to be a FA before he was drafted. (Any example will do)… My question is, Is there anything that the Commissioner can actually do to reprimand teams short of A.) changing the rules, B.) Saying something like “Please don’t do that again”?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve been asked a few times on twitter if a team that’s under the int’l penalties could sign an elite player for $300K, then immediately extend him to huge deal. Technically, yes. I’ve talked to multiple teams about this and they’ve all been told in no uncertain terms that this won’t be allowed, even though it isn’t in the rules. Commish has power to extend written rules when someone finds a loophole…I guess the question is what sort of loopholes are fair to him and which seem too blatant to allow.

Comment From Edgar Diaz Rocks
So was Monte Harrison the best of the Brewers three lottery tickets from the draft, or is it still too early to tell?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll go off the board and call it way too early

Comment From Bret
Looks like with Anthony Gose dealt, Dalton Pompey will get most of the at bats in CF for the Blue Jays. Good idea?

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure if he’s ready yet, but what do I know?

Comment From Kiley McDaniel
here you go

Kiley McDaniel: Smarf is no longer my spirit animal

Comment From Guest
Any possibility the Jays will be in on Moncada?

Kiley McDaniel: Every team is on him and we won’t know who the favorites actually are (we can speculate) or if anyone is out for awhile. Teams don’t even know what they want to do yet.

Comment From Guest
How far back does your scouting expertise go, in case we want to ask about prospects of yesteryear?

Kiley McDaniel: Technically started in 2005, but worked for clubs and/or focused on certain markets for much of that, so there’s some holes. This is actually my first year ranking every team’s system, so I’ve never written about some of these guys but have seen others dozens of times

Comment From Guest
Should Kaleb Coward (or the angels) give up on the idea that he can be a quality hitter?

Kiley McDaniel: We’re getting in that range

Comment From Guest
“I usually just mention my job.” BOOM HEADSHOT

Kiley McDaniel: They also call me Mr. Boombastic and Ghostface Kiley

Comment From THE average sports fan
In general, how far behind are kids from cold weather states vs the warm weather states?

Kiley McDaniel: In general, a year or more

Comment From Guest
Rolls, ranked (Cont’d): …57. Slowing your

Comment From Jeff Wiser
Kiley, as always, a general thank you for all the prospect content you provide. Question about Dbacks’ Justin Williams: plus raw, projected 50 game power, hasn’t shown up at all in games. When should someone get concerned about it never developing. How long’s the leash?

Kiley McDaniel: Still a few more years before you start worrying, but some scouts think it’ll never come. Give him some time, tho

Comment From Gabes
The Phillies recently signed 7 high-profile dudes to minor league deals…do you think RAJ saw your piece on the Yankees corning the market on those types?

Kiley McDaniel: RAJ has that Kiley FG RSS feed ON LOCK so totes not surprised

Comment From the real brian
With FanGraphs being a, presumably, bigger platform, are you finding scouts and team-opinion-shapers to be more, less (or no change at all) open with you when you chat them up?

Kiley McDaniel: The ones I’m meeting for the first time seem more open, but I’ve had some passing conversation or name recognition with a lot of people before FG, which obviously helps as well. These guys like knowing you have a history of not screwing your sources over, moreso than knowing you work for a cool site

Comment From Guest
What are you hearing about Roberto Osuna in the AFL?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him in FSL and AFL. Mid-90’s at times, above avg offspeed, command still coming along. Could have a breakout

Comment From Cat
Not sold on a D.Marrero breakout. Still K’ing almost 30% in AFL.

Kiley McDaniel: Me neither

Comment From Adam
What exactly do Minor League GMs do?

Kiley McDaniel: Business stuff, almost no baseball stuff

Comment From Jeff in T.O.
What team did you use to work for?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s in the footer of all my articles: NYY, BAL, PIT.

Comment From mtsw
Are guys who reach maturity younger (like Bryce Harper to use an extreme example) likely to decline phsyically earlier? Is it possible their bodies just age more rapidly hormonally or something or do scouts not really think about it this way?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah there are early-peak guys. Justin Upton was a 1-1 candidate at age 15-16 and put on weight earlier than most guys like him do…but he’s got plenty of room to regress and still be awesome. Ben Grieve is the type of guy you want to avoid.

Comment From mtsw
Speaking of O’s farm system: does Chance Sisco stick at C?

Kiley McDaniel: I think so

Comment From Gabes
It’s still OK to cry about the fact the Chicago passed on Trout to draft Jared Mitchell, right?

Kiley McDaniel: I would

Comment From mtsw
As a scout, how systematically do you check past evaluations to see how you did? Are there certain types of players you feel like you’ve had particular trouble scouting accurately in the past?

Kiley McDaniel: You don’t really forget what you thought about a guy when you write him up. It sticks in your brain, so you know when you’re wrong.

Comment From SteveV
Do you see CF Dahl gaining power as he matures or is he just a .280 hitter with 8 hrs type prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Rockies list link….coming in 3….2…..1…..http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From mtsw
Besides velocity, what pitching skill is the most difficult for a prospect to improve if he’s not good at it naturally?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t seen a guy that can’t spin a breaking ball learn how to do it better than a 50. Don’t think it’s possible. Wrist flexion or some medical term like that

Comment From Hugo Z
If a gm drafts his own son in the 8th round, then gets fired, and then the son gets traded for next to nothing, is it worth even an iota of angst?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s apparently worth about 10,000 questions in my queue

Comment From Analogies
Which big leaguer is a good Bird comp?

Kiley McDaniel: I got not-as-injured Nick Johnson two years ago and that still might be it

Comment From Bubbles
I hear Yoan Moncada has a pretty fascinating story. Do you have any insight to share?

Kiley McDaniel: Wrote about him yesterday and a month ago, both linked here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Kiley McDaniel: Well that seems like a fitting note to end things on. Podcast coming later today, Reds list coming Monday, Phillies after that.